Russia’s consumption of its pre-war Soviet-era tank stores “appears to be slowing,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as Moscow increasingly shifts to using motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Shift in equipment usage linked to depleted reserves

On 16 June, ISW cited a social media source that analyzes satellite imagery of Russian military depots. This source assessed that, as of a recent but unspecified date, Russia retained 46% of its pre-war tank reserves, 42% of its infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) reserves, and 48% of its armored personnel carrier (APC) reserves.

The data reflects only a modest decline from December 2024, when the same source assessed Russia had 47% of tanks, 52% of IFVs, and 45% of APCs still in storage. The adjusted figures stem from an update made on 15 June, when the source revised Russia’s original pre-war equipment estimates—adding 241 tanks, 174 IFVs, and 687 APCs—affecting percentage shifts accordingly.

The same source reported that most vehicle reserves have been withdrawn from eight key Russian depots. Based on this trend, the source concluded that Russia is likely to exhaust its remaining armored reserves by the end of 2025.

Surge in equipment activity near Finland

Satellite imagery also revealed what the source called a “dramatic” increase in nearly all types of military equipment deployed to a Russian base near Petrozavodsk, in the Republic of Karelia. This location lies approximately 373 kilometers from the Finnish border.

However, the source acknowledged that Russia may still hold additional vehicles in covered storage not visible via satellite surveillance, according to ISW.

The Wall Street Journal reported on 27 April that a senior Finnish military official claimed Russia is sending “almost none” of its newly manufactured tanks to Ukraine. 

Frontline use of motorcycles and buggies grows

ISW noted that the slowing consumption of tank reserves aligns with an observed increase in the use of motorcycles and buggies on the Ukrainian frontline. Since late fall 2024, Russian troops have employed these unarmored civilian vehicles more frequently, especially in contested “gray zones” shaped by Ukrainian and Russian drone activity.

Combat footage reviewed by ISW confirms this shift, with lighter and faster vehicles used to counter the vulnerability of traditional armored units to drone strikes. The think tank previously linked this trend to the heavy armored vehicle losses sustained by Russian forces in late 2023 and 2024.

Tactical gains come at high cost

While these adaptations have allowed Russian troops to make minor tactical advances, ISW emphasized they come at the expense of significant infantry losses. 

“ISW previously assessed that Russian armored vehicle losses are unsustainable and are undermining Russia’s ability to sustain a protracted high-intensity war, but it remains unclear if Russia’s increased reliance on motorcycles and buggies will be sufficient to offset these losses in the medium- to long-term,” the think tank wrote.

On 24 May, Finnish defense minister Antti Häkkänen said on YLE’s “Ykkösaamu” program that Russia is now providing military escort to tankers from its shadow fleet in the Gulf of Finland. He described this as a “completely new feature” of Russian activity in the region.

While Russian naval and air presence in the area has always been noticeable, Häkkänen emphasized that armed protection of shadow fleet tankers through the narrow maritime passage is unprecedented. According to Häkkänen, as cited by YLE,

“However, a new feature is that Russia is protecting tankers from its shadow fleet in the narrow passage of the Gulf of Finland. There is military escort and the presence of armed forces. This is a completely new development.”

Airspace breach confirmed near Finland’s Porvoo

The Finnish Defense Ministry reported on 23 May that two Russian military aircraft violated Finland’s airspace near the city of Porvoo. This breach adds to a recent series of aggressive incidents at sea and in the air.

According to YLE, MTV Uutiset also reported a rise in Russian military traffic in the Gulf of Finland, citing naval sources. This comes as further confirmation of escalating regional tensions.

Last week, an incident occurred involving a vessel linked to the Russian shadow fleet that failed to comply with directives from Estonian authorities. At the same time, a Russian fighter jet was observed in the vicinity.

Russia is also significantly increasing its military presence near Finland’s eastern frontier. Recent images aired on Swedish television from Kamyanka, Severomorsk, and Petrozavodsk show what appear to be large-scale deployments. 

Finland says situation remains stable

Despite the growing Russian military activity, Häkkänen stressed there is no immediate threat to Finland.

“I don’t see any direct threat to Finland. But Russia is strengthening its military capabilities and is an aggressive and dangerous neighbor to all of Europe, that’s clear,” he said.