Ukraine has loosened its reliance on Washington but still depends on the United States in three military areas that let US President Donald Trump keep pressuring Kyiv, The Telegraph wrote on 12 October. That pressure now centers on the energy ceasefire Trump declared on 11 October, with US officials reportedly warning Kyiv not to hit Russian energy during the truce. Kyiv backs a mutual truce, but Moscow has not confirmed it, and Russian strikes on Ukraine’s grid have continued.

The paper named three such ties: satellite intelligence, Patriot interceptors, and American weapons bought with European money. A pause in any of them would hit just as Russia’s winter campaign begins. Ukraine says an intercepted document reportedly lays out up to 1,000 Russian missiles, drones, and bombs for 60 critical sites this winter, so any pause in US intelligence, interceptors, or PURL deliveries would land as that campaign gets under way.

Satellite intelligence: the US still holds the key

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and other US services still pass precise satellite data that help Ukrainian forces hit targets inside Russia, by the paper’s estimate. Trump briefly suspended that flow in March 2025 to pressure Zelenskyy. A Ukrainian official told Axios that Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner threatened during 9 October talks in Miami to cut off US intelligence.

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Patriot interceptors: no quick substitute

The Telegraph called interceptor missiles the second and probably sharpest dependency. Only American Patriot systems can down Russia’s most powerful missiles, which strike Ukrainian cities daily, the paper wrote. Kyiv’s PAC-3 stocks ran dry mainly because US reserves were diverted to the Middle East after America’s war against Iran, the paper added. Kyiv had warned in March that a long Middle East war would squeeze its PAC-3 supply.

Five European defense firms—Destinus, MBDA Deutschland, Safran, Airbus, and Thales—signed a letter of intent in July to develop a joint interceptor, but a testable prototype is not expected before next year, the paper wrote. Ukraine is also building its own interceptor with European allies under the FREYJA program.

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US arms bought with European money

The third is buying American arms with European money through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), a NATO-run purchasing scheme. US officials have reportedly warned Europe that Trump may halt those supplies if Ukraine keeps striking Russian oil refineries.

Ukrainian forces hit 12 large Russian refineries in September, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense said, according to ArmyInform on 12 October. The farthest on the ministry’s list, Lukoil’s refinery in Perm, lies about 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine’s border. Since Trump's 11 October announcement, Euromaidan Press has found no reports of new Ukrainian refinery strikes in the official and unofficial Ukrainian and Russian sources it monitors.

A refinery-for-refinery pause would limit Ukraine’s ability to disrupt Russia’s oil industry while leaving Moscow free to keep attacking Ukraine’s energy system, giving Russia an advantage in a war where both sides use energy infrastructure as a target. The issue has become urgent since Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” on 11 October, after which Ukraine reported holding off strikes on Russian energy facilities while Zelenskyy said Russia attacked several Ukrainian energy sites.

The campaign continued into October. Ukraine’s General Staff said Ukrainian forces struck the Samara oil pumping station overnight into 10 October, the third attack on the station that month, according to Radio Svoboda.

Ukraine held off, Russia hit six energy sites

Zelenskyy said Ukraine had refrained from striking Russian energy facilities overnight on 11–12 October following Trump's announcement. Monitoring channels and official Russian sources did not report any new refinery strikes on 13 October.

“Last night, we did not attack any energy facilities on the territory of Russia because President Trump said that there would be an energy ceasefire,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

He added that Ukraine does not announce its next operational steps. Zelenskyy said Russia attacked six Ukrainian energy facilities on 12 October alone, according to Radio Svoboda.

Refineries first, power plants possibly later

A White House official told Axios that the proposal would begin with both sides halting attacks on oil refineries, with a possible agreement covering power plants to follow. Axios reported that Russia had not accepted a ceasefire.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said the proposal, as described, would give Russia a major concession without offering Ukraine anything in return: Russia has scores of operating refineries, while Ukraine has one. ISW also said the proposal would allow Russia to continue its winter strikes on Ukrainian power stations.

US President Donald Trump’s envoys told Kyiv that letting Russia sell diesel could draw Moscow back to peace talks, Reuters reported. In the same meeting, they said Russia’s leader was not ready to negotiate. Since then, Moscow has offered nothing in return, and Trump has brushed off claims that Russia helps Iran.

Washington is pressing Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries and offering Moscow economic incentives to return to peace talks, even though Russia has made no commitment in return. Yesterday, Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv before air raid sirens sounded, amid disputed warnings that the US could cut intelligence support. Meanwhile, Ukraine is being asked to halt its long-range campaign against the oil infrastructure that fuels and finances Russia's war.

The pitch: a diesel deal as a signal to Moscow

Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner met the Ukrainian delegation in Miami on 9 October. They described Russian President Vladimir Putin as unprepared to negotiate but said the diesel deal could help restart three-way talks, two of the sources said.

The third source said the deal could “soften” Moscow because it “sends a signal that Trump is open to do things” with Russia. One of the sources described the plan:

“The idea was that the US could go back to Russia and say ‘See, the Ukrainians stopped striking and we gave you this deal. Now it’s your turn to do something.’”

Ukraine’s part was to stop hitting Russian refineries. Kushner repeated Trump’s request at the meeting, noting the administration had made it several times, two sources said.

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Kyiv was asked to hold its fire on Russian oil

The Ukrainians agreed to nothing formally, Reuters’ sources said. They signaled they would accept an energy ceasefire if Russia did the same, but saw the US approach as an attempt to appease Russia with business deals.

Two days later, Trump declared an energy ceasefire, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine was ready if Russia reciprocated. Euromaidan Press has monitored official and unofficial Ukrainian and Russian sources and found no reports of new Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries after Trump’s announcement. One of the last, on the night of the diesel announcement, knocked out more than half the tanks at a fuel-export terminal in Rostov-on-Don.

Three sources told Reuters the envoys did not threaten to cut US support over the refinery strikes. A Ukrainian official told Axios, however, that the envoys warned Trump could cut Ukraine off from US intelligence, which a US official denied. US officials are also believed to have told European allies that Trump would halt PURL, the NATO scheme for Europe-funded US weapons for Ukraine, unless the strikes stopped, according to FT.

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What Moscow has offered in return

A person close to the Kremlin told Reuters that Putin would return to the table only when he gets “the remaining 11% of Donbas.” Ukraine refuses to cede more land. During the 9 October call that produced the deal, Putin declined to commit to resuming talks, his aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters, Axios reported.

Moscow has not confirmed the energy ceasefire either. Trump insisted on 12 October that the sides had agreed “because I said they agreed,” RFE/RL reported. On the evening of 12 October, Russian munitions collapsed an apartment stairwell in Kharkiv, killing four people. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak, meanwhile, claimed diesel exports could reach 3.0–3.5 million tons a month by year-end, above the volumes Trump announced.

“Too much to lose”: Trump on Russia and Iran

Late on 12 October, Trump wrote on Truth Social that he did not believe Russia and China were helping Iran, since they have “too much to lose.” In March, he told Fox News that Putin “might be helping them a little bit.” Asked about Russia’s possible support for Iran, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on 2 September that his message to everyone was to “stay away.” That month, a Financial Times investigation found Russia secretly helping Iran develop supersonic cruise missiles that could threaten US warships.

A drone strike on 10 October put more than half of the large fuel tanks out of action at an oil-loading terminal in Russia’s Rostov-on-Don, Russian news Telegram channel Astra found. The terminal loads fuel onto river and sea tankers for export, and it burned for two days while a local channel wrote that reeds might be on fire. Neither Kyiv nor Moscow has officially acknowledged the hit. It came hours after US President Donald Trump announced a diesel deal with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Russia has spent the autumn hammering Ukraine’s power grid ahead of winter. Ukraine’s long-range drones keep hitting the refineries, depots, and terminals that fuel Russia’s army and earn it export revenue. Every burned tank turns that revenue into repair bills, while Moscow is already subsidizing its own fuel pumps. A refinery-only truce of the kind the White House described a day after the strike would shield the Russian plants that feed terminals like this one.

Seven of 12 tanks out of action

Astra’s analysts concluded from eyewitness footage that at least seven of the terminal’s 12 large tanks had been knocked out. Ukrainian monitoring channel Supernova+ counted seven burned-out tanks and one more scorched by the fire.

The fire was still burning in the early hours of 12 October. Local channel Rostov Glavny posted video of the burning tank farm, passing on rumors that reeds were on fire and noting the city’s second day under smoke, The Moscow Times reported. Footage filmed in the daytime on 12 October showed no more open flames, only gray smoke, according to Astra.

A terminal that loads fuel for export

The site is the oil-loading terminal of the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Products Plant, formerly known as Yug Rusi, in Rostov-on-Don’s Zheleznodorozhny District. It receives, stores, and transships fuel onto river and sea tankers, including for export, Ukrainian monitoring channel Exilenova+ said.

The terminal also supplies fuel to the Russian army and earns Moscow hard currency, ZN reported. The Moscow Times put its loading capacity at 3.5 million tons a year and its tank farm at about 60,000 cubic meters, roughly 16 million gallons.

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The refinery itself stands in the town of Novoshakhtinsk near the border with Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast. The terminal sits on the Don River with access to the Sea of Azov, Ukrainian military outlet Militarnyi noted. Ukraine hit the refinery in June, and Ukraine’s General Staff reported striking the Yug Rusi terminal on 9 July, placing it in Bataysk.

A night of drones over the region

Exilenova+ posted images of the burning terminal in the early hours of 10 October. It presented them as the site after Trump’s phone call with Putin. The channel later shared NASA satellite fire data showing the blaze.

Rostov Oblast Governor Yuri Slyusar claimed the attack injured six people. Slyusar further stated air defenses downed more than 100 drones over the region. Radio Liberty’s Russian Service noted that neither side had officially confirmed the hit on the terminal.

Hours after the US-Russia diesel deal

The strike came hours after Trump announced on 9 October that Russia had agreed to supply diesel to US and global markets. The US Treasury then cleared the trade with a sanctions license.

On 11 October, Trump declared an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine. Under it, he expects Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries, a White House official told Axios.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that evening that Ukraine’s armed forces had received all relevant orders. Neither Ukrainian monitoring channels nor Russian officials have reported a new strike on a Russian oil facility since. On 13 October, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was ready to guarantee an energy ceasefire if Russia took matching steps.

Ukrainian drones have helped push Russia into its worst fuel crisis since the Soviet Union fell, The Washington Post (WaPo) reported on 11 October.

Diesel is where this war reaches American drivers. US President Donald Trump blames rising diesel prices mostly on Russia’s war in Ukraine, while experts blame mainly the US war with Iran. Some of his allies now accuse Kyiv of trying to sway the US midterms.

Drones go for the first stage of refining

The Washington Post looked at dozens of strikes between 1 April and 31 August. Three refinery experts then examined satellite images of 54 strikes with visible damage. In over half, the damage seems to be to the desalting and distillation units, known by the Russian acronym ELOU-AVT. These units clean the crude of water and salt, then split it into separate compounds, the first steps toward gasoline and diesel. More than a third appear to have hit secondary units, which turn those compounds into jet fuel, gasoline, and liquefied petroleum gas.

From April through August, drones struck two-thirds or more of the 36 big Russian refineries that S&P Global Energy tracks, a strike every third day. Some took as many as five hits. On 16 June, drones set the Moscow refinery’s distillation towers on fire. That strike and a second one days later kept the plant offline into September, WaPo reported, citing data firm Kpler. Ukraine targeted the refinery again on 20 September.

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“We don’t need to hit the entire plant,” a Ukrainian drone battalion commander with the call sign Tango told The Washington Post. Ukraine knows where to strike so that a refinery stops and stays down, he said. His unit, Ukraine’s 1st Separate Center of Unmanned Systems, runs long-range strikes deep inside Russia.

Sanctions slow the repairs

The EU banned exports of oil-refining equipment to Russia the day after the 2022 invasion, and the US followed days later. WaPo reported that the bans cover the distillation and secondary processing units Ukraine keeps hitting. The bans make spare parts hard to get, Alexander Kolyandr of Eurasia Group told the paper, and the strikes come faster than repairs.

Since last year, Ukraine has doubled the size of each wave, decoys included, a person involved in the strike campaign told WaPo. The decoys are unarmed and draw Russian fire, wasting air-defense ammunition, WaPo explained. Without them, the person said, Ukraine would simply lose expensive systems. András Rácz of the German Council on Foreign Relations told WaPo that even if only 2–3% of drones get through, the damage is significant.

The EU adopted its largest-ever round of sanctions listings on 12 October, targeting the suppliers behind Russia’s war industry, the Council of the EU announced. The bloc acted as Russia keeps killing Ukrainian civilians every day, while US President Donald Trump eases sanctions on Russian diesel.

Russia’s planned winter campaign against Ukraine’s infrastructure depends on arms factories fed by a web of component suppliers and on oil revenue that still flows despite Ukraine’s refinery strikes, so every supplier cut off from that web raises the cost of waging it. As Washington eases off, Europe’s own pressure has a gap: its ports still take record volumes of Russian Arctic gas, and a full ban on long-term contracts starts only in 2027.

Missile suppliers top the list

More than half of the new listings hit the supply chain for ballistic missiles that Russia “uses to kill Ukrainian civilians every day,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said in the statement. Russian attacks killed more than 150 people in the past week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 11 October.

The list names 826 Russian companies, mid-level firms the Council calls the “core” of Russia’s arms industry, with at least €20 billion in yearly turnover, and 743 people who run them. They make parts for missiles, drones, and military aircraft, from semiconductors and radars to explosives and navigation systems. Their assets are frozen, EU firms may not finance them, and the executives may not enter the EU.

Foreign ministers ratified a deal EU envoys reached on 7 October. Ukraine’s sanctions commissioner Vladyslav Vlasiuk said 60% of the listings came from Ukrainian proposals.

Ministers reject the diesel deal

EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg vowed to keep the sanctions despite Trump’s diesel deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Euronews reported. Kallas addressed Washington directly as she arrived.

“The US is our biggest ally, but our message is clear: if we want to end this war, the only way we can do this is (by) putting more pressure on Russia,” Kallas said.

Irish Foreign Minister Helen McEntee called the deal “concerning,” and Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said it was “not the European way.” Kallas warned that an energy truce covering only refineries would favor Russia, since Ukraine has one refinery and Russia “plenty.”

Trump announced the diesel deal on 9 October, and the US Treasury waived sanctions on Russian diesel until April 2027. Zelenskyy said the EU would provide about €3 billion more in military aid this week.

Washington presses Kyiv

Trump expects Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries under his proposed energy ceasefire, a White House official told Axios. Zelenskyy said Kyiv would halt such strikes if Moscow did the same. On 10 October, Trump told reporters it was time for Ukraine to get a new president. Germany’s foreign minister, Britain’s defense secretary, and a senior lawmaker from Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s party backed Zelenskyy, while the Kremlin sided with Trump.

Zelenskyy offered to hold elections after a 60-day ceasefire, and Kallas said elections are impossible while the war goes on. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia exploits Ukraine’s legal ban on wartime elections to drag out the war.

Russia offers Ukraine a single day without strikes for its elections. Russian leader Vladimir Putin is ready to order a halt to strikes on Ukraine only on the day of a presidential election, if Kyiv decides to hold one, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov says, Russian state agency TASS reported.

The offer answers Ukraine’s call for a real pause: on 11 October, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated Ukraine could hold elections if Putin agreed to a full ceasefire of at least 60 days, ABC News reported. Against the backdrop of Russian strikes that killed more than 150 Ukrainian civilians in a single week, Moscow counters with a one-day truce confined to voting day.

“...If they really want to hold elections in Kyiv, the president of Russia, the supreme commander-in-chief, will be ready to give the order not to strike Ukraine on election day. Specifically on election day,” Peskov said.

His statements followed US President Donald Trump’s call on 10 October for Ukraine to choose a new president, saying a change of leadership could help reach peace with Russia, according to Suspilne.

Trump also criticized Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries amid his new agreements to supply a low volume of diesel into the US.

Moscow rejects the 60-day pause

Peskov has outright dismissed the longer truce. Ukraine needs 60 days not to hold elections but to heal its wounds and continue the war, he argues.

He has claimed Russia had been willing to resume peace talks after Russia’s own State Duma elections, but accused Ukraine of launching massive strikes on Moscow to disrupt that vote. Peskov has gone further, claiming Ukraine shelled polling stations and killed several members of district election commissions in the Russian-occupied regions it calls its own.

What Peskov left out

The accusations are Russia’s and remain unverified. Peskov offered no evidence for the claims about polling stations or election officials, which echo long-running Kremlin talking points.

He also made no mention of Russia’s own strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets over the same period, including attacks on energy sites and residential buildings.

Russia suffered vastly more casualties than Ukraine in September, a senior NATO military official told Bloomberg. Ukraine’s General Staff put the month’s Russian toll only slightly lower.

September’s toll lands on a recruitment system that was already falling short. Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) estimated that Russian losses outran new contracts in June and July, when monthly losses ran lower. In August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, citing military intelligence, warned that Russia is preparing a mass call-up after its parliamentary elections. That vote ended on 20 September.

Where the numbers come from

Russian casualties passed 50,000 in September, up to 28,000 of them killed, the official said. Ukraine’s losses over the same month came to about 5,000, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Russia does not release casualty figures, Bloomberg noted. In late August, Pavlo Palisa, deputy head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, put Russia’s July losses at 43,000 killed and wounded. Bloomberg could not confirm his figures.

To push forward, Russia keeps feeding troops into “kill zones,” the official said. These are stretches of ground saturated with armed drones, mines, and artillery fire. Maksym, call sign Rumyn, is a deputy company commander in the 46th Airmobile Brigade’s drone battalion. In April, he said the zone once ran 3–5 km deep and is now several times larger.

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Rising stakes for Moscow

Russia’s defense spending is expected to near $199 billion this year, Bloomberg reported, citing two sources close to the government. That is about 40% above the plan the government set in late 2025.

Russian President Vladimir Putin would struggle to wind down the invasion without a political cost, Martin Jäger said last week. He heads Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND).

Russia hit the CHP-5 thermal plant in Kharkiv on the evening of 11 October. It came hours after US President Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address.

Trump had announced the energy truce earlier that day, though Kyiv reported no part in any such deal, as well as Moscow. Yet in this one week, Russia carried out more than 200 strikes on Ukraine’s power generation and transmission and 17 on its gas and oil sites, killing more than 150 people and wounding more than 700, according to Zelenskyy.

“All day today, there were Russian Shaheds in the sky. There are Shaheds in the sky now, too. There were strikes by aerial bombs. There were strikes on our energy. Just now there was a strike on CHP-5 in Kharkiv,” Zelenskyy states.

Ukraine welcomes the agreement Trump announced and is ready to stop striking Russian energy if Russia does the same. For that to mean anything, he stresses, it has to become part of reality.

A one-word answer from Moscow

Ukraine has offered many de-escalation steps, Zelenskyy notes, but Russian ruler Vladimir Putin met them all with the same refusal. He voices hope that the Russian leader would finally tell the US, Ukraine, and the world something other than killing and deception, something that leads to a real and dignified peace.

Ukraine wants peace, and the question is whether Russia does. The Armed Forces have received all the relevant orders to defend the country, he confirms.

Allies line up fresh support

Zelenskyy says he also spoke with members of the US Congress and, the day before with the UK prime minister, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Norway’s prime minister, all of whom offered help.

Ukraine is also working with the EU on financing for its defense and budget stability, and preparing new steps on European integration.

US President Donald Trump has announced an immediate energy ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine, saying both sides agreed to stop striking each other’s energy facilities, in a post on Truth Social. Ukraine, however, knew nothing about the deal.

Russia has spent the war hitting Ukraine's power plants, refineries, and grids, while Ukraine answered with strikes on its refineries and plants that produce missiles. If confirmed, a halt before winter would be a major break. Yet about seven minutes before Trump’s announcement, Russia struck at Kyiv’s thermal plant, cutting power to several districts of the capital at once.

“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” Trump wrote.

News for Zelenskyy

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Axios the announcement “was news" for him. But if Russians agree to an energy ceasefire, Ukraine will agree, he added. Moscow gave no immediate confirmation.

The announcement follows days of friction over energy. Washington has just eased sanctions on Russian diesel and pressed Kyiv to stop hitting Russian refineries, while Russian strikes killed more than 80 Ukrainian civilians in two days.

A truce no one in Kyiv confirmed

Zelenskyy had already signaled Ukraine’s terms. He said on Sunday that Kyiv was ready to stop striking Russian refineries if Moscow halted its attacks on Ukrainian energy, so the condition was on the table before Trump spoke, not settled by him.

If Trump negotiated it with Putin, then he should say when the ceasefire begins, Zelenskyy added, underlining that Ukraine had not been party to any such agreement.

Ukrainians greet it with doubt

The reaction in Kyiv was wary. Trump already declared an energy ceasefire once, and Putin broke it within five minutes, said Andrii Kovalenko, former head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, asking whether Trump was now “announcing it to himself.”

Meanwhile, lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak called for an explanation, warning that Trump’s “energy ceasefire” might mean Ukraine stops hitting Russian refineries and tankers while Russia merely promises not to strike Ukrainian oil tankers it would struggle to find in the first place.

U.S. Special Representative Keith Kellogg has pushed back against Russian claims that Ukraine and the United States are responsible for delaying peace negotiations, arguing that it is Moscow that continues to obstruct efforts to end the war it initiated.

"Peskov’s recent comments on the state of negotiations are Orwellian. Russian claims that it is the U.S. and Ukraine stalling peace talks are unfounded," Kellogg said on X, citing reporting by the Kyiv Independent."

"President Trump has been consistent and adamant about making progress to end the war. We urge an immediate ceasefire and a move to trilateral talks to end the war. Russia cannot continue to stall for time while it bombs civilian targets in Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on June 29 accused Washington and Kyiv of holding up progress, stating that future developments in peace talks depend on Ukraine’s stance, the effectiveness of U.S. mediation, and the situation on the battlefield.

“A lot depends, naturally, on the position of the Kyiv regime,” Peskov said in a televised interview with Belarus 1 TV, according to Reuters. “It depends on how effectively Washington's mediating efforts continue,” he added.

Despite those remarks, Russia has rejected a U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal and continued its attacks on Ukrainian cities launching record numbers of drones against Ukrainian cities. Earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin openly stated that “all of Ukraine is ours,” raising further doubts about the Kremlin’s willingness to engage in meaningful negotiations.

Peskov’s interview aired as the war moves into its fourth summer with no comprehensive ceasefire in place. Although two rounds of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine took place in Istanbul this year—on May 16 and June 2—the discussions have not led to any breakthrough on ending hostilities.

While the Istanbul meetings led to notable prisoner exchanges, they produced no tangible progress toward peace.

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U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in an interview with Politico on June 25 that U.S. President Donald Trump will resist European pressure to escalate sanctions on Russia, arguing that doing so could close the door to potential peace negotiations with Moscow.

Speaking with Politico on the sidelines of the NATO summit in The Hague, Rubio said Trump wants to keep open a diplomatic channel with Russian President Vladimir Putin, despite growing frustration from European leaders and President Volodymyr Zelensky over Russia's refusal to agree to a ceasefire.

"If we did what everybody here wants us to do, and that is come in and crush them with more sanctions, we probably lose our ability to talk to them about the ceasefire and then who's talking to them?" Rubio said.

Rubio acknowledged that Russia appears committed to pursuing its objectives by force.

"Our sense of it is that the Russians are going to try to achieve on the battlefield what they've demanded at the negotiating table, which is certain territories, administrative lines, and the like," he said. "We think it’s going to be a lot harder for them to achieve that than they think it's going to be."

Rubio added that Trump "will know the right time and place" for additional sanctions, but emphasized that imposing them too soon could signal that the U.S. has given up on a negotiated resolution.

Previously, Trump said he had refrained from imposing new sanctions on Russia because he believed a peace deal with Moscow might be within reach, warning he did not want to jeopardize negotiations by acting prematurely.

Speaking after two rounds of peace talks in Istanbul between Moscow and Kyiv that led to no ceasefire, Trump on June 5 declined to say when additional sanctions on Russia might be imposed, only noting there is a deadline "in (his) brain."

"If he (Trump) does it, you're almost admitting that this is not going to be negotiated anytime soon," he said. "We're going to continue to engage. In the sense that if there's an opportunity for us to make a difference and get them to the table, we're going to take it."

Zelensky and several European leaders are expected to ask Trump during meetings at the summit to increase economic pressure on Moscow.  

It has been more than 100 days, since Ukraine agreed to a U.S.-backed complete ceasefire, while Russia continues to reject it. Moscow continues pushing maximalist demands while intensifying attacks across Ukrainian cities.

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U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities demonstrated how precision military action can achieve rapid peace, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said on June 24, speaking at the NATO Public Forum held alongside the alliance summit in The Hague.

"(The U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities) shows how you get that peace through that strength, and that strength is amplified and enhanced by this alliance (NATO)," Whitaker said, referring to the June 21 American strikes on Iran's Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan nuclear sites, which U.S. President Donald Trump called a "spectacular success."

Whitaker emphasized that the U.S. remains a reliable ally and a cornerstone of NATO's deterrence. "The U.S. isn't going anywhere," he said. "The U.S. has certain capabilities that you want an alliance to have."

He added that recent U.S. military operations underscore the importance of defense investments by all member states. "If all of (NATO) countries elevate investments in their defense, I think we will have peace for generations,” Whitaker said.

The U.S. strikes on Iran came amid escalating tensions between Israel and Tehran. Trump said the strikes were intended to push Iran toward negotiations, warning that the alternative would be "tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed."

Trump claimed that a ceasefire between Iran and Israel was achieved on June 24. Just hours later, Israel accused Tehran of launching missiles toward its territory — an allegation Iran  denied.

Whitaker said the White House hopes the U.S. will also bring to an end Russia's war in Ukraine. He added that there is "no purely military solution" to the war in Ukraine.

Unlike past U.S. administrations, Trump has not introduced new sanctions against Russia despite increasing Russian missile and drone attacks on civilians.

On June 24, the first day of the NATO summit, Russia launched a ballistic missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, killing at least three people and injuring more than 20, including two children, according to regional officials.

Kyiv has long been advocating for "peace through strength" policy, calling for stronger sanctions against Russia and increased military aid to Ukraine.

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Editor's note: This story was updated to include comments made by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Iran launched missiles toward Israel on June 24, just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between the two countries had come into effect, the Israeli military said. Iran denied the accusation.

"A short while ago, sirens sounded in northern Israel following the identification of missiles launched from Iran toward the State of Israel," the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement.

"At this time, the IAF (Israeli Air Force) is operating to intercept and strike where necessary to eliminate the threat," the statement read.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the army to respond forcefully to Iran's ceasefire violation, Reuters reported. Katz said that Israel will continue to strike Iran after the "utter violation" of the ceasefire.

Shortly after Israel's statement, Iranian state media reported that Tehran denied firing missiles at Israel after the ceasefire began.

A senior security official in Iran told CNN that “no missiles have been fired at the enemy" after the ceasefire.

The reports come after days of escalating hostilities in the Middle East. Early on June 24, Trump declared in a Truth Social post that a ceasefire had begun, writing, "The ceasefire is now in effect. Please do not violate it!"

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on June 24 Israel had agreed to Trump's ceasefire proposal, claiming that Israel had "achieved its goal of removing the Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile threat," according to Reuters.

Trump said later on June 24 that Israel needs to "calm down" after what he described as violations of the ceasefire by both sides.

"I gotta get Israel to calm down now," Trump said as he left the White House. "Israel, as soon as we made the deal, they came out and they dropped a load of bombs, the likes of which I've never seen before, the biggest load that we've seen."

He added: "We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the f*ck they're doing."

Trump also wrote on Truth Social that "Israel is not going to attack Iran."

"Nobody is going to be hurt. The Ceasefire in in the effect," U.S. president wrote,  

Previously, the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan on June 21. In response, Iran fired missiles at U.S. military bases in the region, including at least 10 targeting Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and one aimed at a base in Iraq.

The Pentagon confirmed that Iran launched several short- and medium-range missiles at Al Udeid but reported no U.S. casualties. Trump dismissed the attacks as "limited and largely ineffective."

Iran is a key arms supplier to Russia, providing Shahed drones used in attacks on Ukrainian cities and pledging to send ballistic missiles. Israel, while home to a significant Russian-speaking population, has not joined Western sanctions against Moscow.

Ceasefire between Iran and Israel now in effect, Trump says

“The ceasefire is now in effect. Please do not violate it!” U.S. President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social on June 24.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on June 24 that a ceasefire between Iran and Israel had come into effect, following the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and retaliatory attack on U.S. military base in Qatar.

"The ceasefire is now in effect. Please do not violate it!" Trump said in a post on Truth Social on June 24.

The announcement follows days of intensifying conflict after the U.S. conducted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, targeting sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan.

In response, Iran launched multiple missiles at U.S. military bases in the region, including at least 10 toward the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and at least one toward a base in Iraq, Axios reported, citing an Israeli source.

The Pentagon confirmed that Iran fired several short- and medium-range missiles at Al Udeid, but said no American personnel were harmed. Trump downplayed the attack, calling it "limited and largely ineffective."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on June 24 that Israel has agreed to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran, thanking Trump for his support in defending Israel and "removing the Iranian nuclear threat," according to Reuters.

"Israel has achieved its goal of removing the Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile threat," Netanyahu said in a statement. "Israel thanks President Trump for his support and participation in removing the Iranian nuclear threat."

Iran is a key arms supplier to Russia, providing Shahed drones used in attacks on Ukrainian cities and pledging to send ballistic missiles. Israel, while home to a significant Russian-speaking population, has not joined Western sanctions against Moscow.

Tensions between Iran and Israel had already been rising after Iran launched missile strikes on Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities on June 13, killing multiple civilians, including five Ukrainian nationals. The attack came in retaliation for Israeli military action.

Trump, who has long styled himself as a dealmaker and peacemaker, has come under criticism for his failure to deliver on promises to reach a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. During his electoral campaign, he pledged to end the war between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. More than 100 days after Ukraine accepted a U.S.-backed proposal for a ceasefire, no progress has been made.

"It has been exactly 100 days since Ukraine unconditionally accepted the U.S. peace proposal to completely cease fire, put an end to the killing, and move forward with a genuine peace process," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on June 19. "Russia continues to choose war."

Ukraine backed the proposal during talks in Jeddah on March 11, agreeing to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. Russia has rejected the offer, continuing its assault on Ukrainian cities and pushing for maximalist demands.

"It is time to act now and force Russia to peace," Sybiha said. "Peace through strength, increased sanctions, and enhanced capabilities for Ukraine."

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The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Russia's memorandum on a peace proposal is the "best offer Ukraine can get today," Russia's envoy to the United Nations (UN), Vasily Nebenzya, said at a UN Security Council meeting on June 20.

"During the direct Russian-Ukrainian talks that were held, we presented our memorandum on a peaceful settlement. It consists of two parts: conditions for a comprehensive long-term peace and conditions for a ceasefire," Nebenzya said.

"This is the best offer Ukraine can get today. We advise accepting it as things will only get worse for Kyiv, from here on out," he said.

At Istanbul peace talks on June 2, Russian negotiators told the Ukrainian delegation that their so-called "peace memorandum" is an ultimatum Kyiv cannot accept, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview published on June 10.

"They even told our delegation: we know that our memorandum is an ultimatum, and you will not accept it," Zelensky said. "Thus, the question is not the quality of the Istanbul format, but what to do about the Russians' lies."

"In Istanbul, we also agreed on a large-scale exchange of prisoners of war," Nebenzya said at the UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine.

Aside from agreeing on large-scale prisoner exchanges, peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have been largely inconclusive as Moscow continues to issue maximalist demands toward Kyiv.

Nebenzya noted that Ukraine and Russia should resume direct peace talks in Turkey after June 22, despite Russia's intensified drone and missile attacks on Ukraine.

On June 17, a Russian drone and missile attack on Kyiv killed 30 people and injured another 172. The nearly nine-hour-long strike saw Moscow's forces launch large numbers of drones and missiles at Ukraine's capital.

Russia's statements diverged from those of other speakers at the UN Security Council meeting on June 20.

"We call on Russia to agree to an unconditional ceasefire. Russia initiated this war; we call on Russia to end it," Barbara Woodward, the U.K.'s Permanent Representative to the UN, said.

Russia has illegally laid claim to five Ukrainian regions despite not controlling all of the territory. The regions include Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, as well as the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.

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The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Ukraine must accept Moscow's terms for ending the war or face further military advances and eventual "surrender," Russia's ambassador to the United Kingdom, Andrei Kelin, said in a June 18 interview with CNN.

Talking to CNN host Christiane Amanpour, Kelin said Russia is continuing its offensive and sees no need to stop hostilities, publicly acknowledging Moscow's disregard for U.S.-backed ceasefire efforts.

The comments come as Russia continues to reject a U.S. truce proposal backed by Kyiv and only intensifies both ground operations and aerial strikes against Ukrainian cities.

"We are now on the offensive and Ukraine is in retreat," Kelin said. "In May, we have taken about 600 square kilometers (230 square miles) of the territory of Ukraine, and we continue to gain more ground."

According to the open-source intelligence group DeepState, Russian forces occupied approximately 449 square kilometers (173 square miles) in May, the highest monthly figure this year, but still well below Kelin's claim.

Kelin outlined an ultimatum for Kyiv: either agree to a permanent ceasefire on Russia's terms or face worse consequences.

"For Ukraine, there is a choice: either they will take our conditions right now… or we will continue this drive and Ukraine will have to surrender under much worse conditions," he said.

In the most recent peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2, Russia again pressed its longstanding maximalist demands, including recognition of Russia's annexation of Crimea, as well as Kherson, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk oblasts — none of which are fully under Moscow's control.

The Kremlin also insists on Ukraine's complete military withdrawal from these regions.

The ambassador's remarks come amid reported preparations for a third round of negotiations with Ukraine after June 22, though no date has been officially confirmed. Kelin described the talks as "stage by stage," citing prior agreements on prisoner exchanges and humanitarian issues.

Kelin also reiterated long-standing Kremlin demands for Ukraine's neutrality and the prohibition of NATO membership, calling the alliance "very threatening to us."

The ambassador insisted on "reestablishment of normal human rights" for ethnic minorities in Ukraine, including Russians, Hungarians, and Poles, a claim Kyiv and Western officials have repeatedly dismissed as a false pretext for invasion.

CNN's host challenged Kelin on whether such terms amounted to capitulation rather than negotiation. Kelin denied the characterization, maintaining that talks are ongoing and involve "important agreements."

When asked about Russia's capacity to sustain its military campaign, Kelin claimed Moscow is spending "only 5–7%" of its budget on the war and recruiting up to 60,000 volunteer soldiers monthly, figures Western analysts have not independently verified.

"Only 5–7%" of the budget accounts for around 13.5 trillion rubles ($126 billion). Russia's spending on war and law enforcement agencies exceeds expenditures on education, healthcare, social policy, and the national economy combined.

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A senior Russian official on June 19 inadvertently confirmed the staggering troop losses incurred by Moscow’s forces during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In an interview with CNN, Russian Ambassador to the U.K. Andrey Kelin was asked about Moscow’s maximalist intentions in Ukraine and its ability to recruit enough

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

A hundred days since Ukraine agreed to a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire, "Russia continues to choose war," Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on June 19, urging international pressure to push Moscow toward ending the war.

"It has been exactly 100 days since Ukraine unconditionally accepted the U.S. peace proposal to completely cease fire, put an end to the killing, and move forward with a genuine peace process," Sybiha said on X.

Ukraine backed the U.S. proposal for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire during talks in Jeddah on March 11. Russia has rejected the offer, instead pushing maximalist demands while intensifying attacks across Ukrainian cities.

"A hundred days of Russian manipulations and missed opportunities to end the war. A hundred days of Russia escalating terror against Ukraine rather than ending it," Sybiha said.

Ukraine's top diplomat stressed that Kyiv remains committed to peace, while Russia disregards U.S. efforts to "end the killing."

While U.S. President Donald Trump initially pledged to broker a swift peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow, the U.S. administration has become increasingly less engaged in negotiations as the progress stalls.

Trump has evaded calls for exerting additional pressure on Russia via sanctions, and compared the two warring sides to "two young children" who should be let "fight for a while" before being pulled apart.

The U.S. president has also become increasingly preoccupied with the Middle East amid escalating hostilities between Iran and Israel.

"It is time to act now and force Russia to peace. Peace through strength, increased sanctions, and enhanced capabilities for Ukraine," Sybiha said.

European leaders have declared they are ready to impose additional sanctions on Russia as the 18th sanctions package is being prepared. In turn, a U.S. bill imposing heavy sanctions on Russian oil has been postponed, as other foreign policy issues dominate the agenda in Washington.

Russia turns sound into weapon

When I was at school and learned about World War II, my grandmother told me what she remembered of her wartime childhood on the English coast. Growing up near a Royal Navy base, she survived countless nighttime air raids. Most of all, she remembered exactly how the Blitz sounded — the

The Kyiv IndependentElsa Court

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry on June 18 brushed off Moscow's demands for Kyiv to destroy or dismantle Western-supplied weapons as a condition for a ceasefire, saying it shows disregard for U.S. peace efforts.

"Russian officials make new absurd demands almost every day. Total inadequacy," Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said on X.

"Moscow shows complete disregard for the United States' efforts to end the war."

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko raised the demand in an interview with the state-run newspaper Izvestia earlier this week.

"All these surpluses must be destroyed. All international algorithms are known. They must be reduced, disposed of, and guaranteed," Grushko said.

The Kremlin has previously demanded a complete halt on Western military aid to Ukraine as a key condition for a truce. Kyiv and its European partners have rejected this, instead urging increased military assistance to the war-torn country.

The demand reflects Moscow's growing list of maximalist conditions presented in its so-called "peace memorandum" during negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2.

While the recent peace talks ended with an agreement on major prisoner exchanges and repatriation of fallen soldiers, they have failed to achieve a breakthrough in the peace talks.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who initially pledged to broker peace in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office, has become increasingly disengaged in the effort. He has also been reluctant to apply pressure on Moscow to push it to a ceasefire deal despite repeatedly threatening additional sanctions.

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Sitting a few meters from the rubble of what used to be a nondescript nine-story residential building in Kyiv, Lilia rises to her feet every time another pile of debris is cleared from the site targeted by Russia during a mass overnight attack on June 17. “We are waiting (as

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

Moscow will insist that Ukraine dismantle and destroy all Western-supplied weapons as part of any ceasefire deal, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said in an interview with the state-run newspaper Izvestia published June 16.

"All these surpluses must be destroyed. All international algorithms are known. They must be reduced, disposed of, and guaranteed," Grushko said, without offering specifics.

The remarks reflect Moscow's growing list of maximalist demands presented in its so-called "peace memorandum" during recent negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2.

The document calls for Ukraine to recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea and four partially occupied regions — Kherson, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk — and demands full Ukrainian troop withdrawal and demobilization.

Grushko argued that Western weapons aid threatens not only Russia but also Europe, warning that arms could end up on black markets.

"It's crazy how reckless some politicians are, still flooding the market with weapons," he said.

There is no credible evidence that Kyiv has diverted Western weapons or fueled arms trafficking — a narrative promoted by Russian propaganda to undermine support for Kyiv.

Independent oversight by partner states and institutions has consistently found that Ukraine uses Western weapons to defend itself against Russia's full-scale invasion.

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Moscow's proposals would further prevent Ukraine from joining NATO or military alliances, prohibit its armed forces' redeployment, and stop all Western military aid and intelligence sharing.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected Moscow's demands, saying the Russian delegation admitted in Istanbul that their "memorandum" is an ultimatum Ukraine cannot accept.

"They even told our delegation: we know that our memorandum is an ultimatum, and you will not accept it," he said in a June 10 interview with Hungarian outlet Valasz Online.

In contrast, Ukraine's proposal focused on humanitarian measures, including a prisoner exchange, the return of abducted children, and securing the right to join the EU and NATO.

Kyiv has also called for using frozen Russian assets to pay for reconstruction and linking any sanctions relief to a verified ceasefire.

Despite two rounds of talks in May and June, no political breakthrough has been reached. Moscow continues to reject calls for an unconditional ceasefire, while Ukraine presses for an end to hostilities.

U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly shown frustration over Russia's refusal to compromise, yet he has refrained from imposing new sanctions.

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One of the most notable developments is in Kaliningrad, where the suspected nuclear weapons storage site has undergone significant reconstruction.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy