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41 Ukrainians made the long journey from occupation to Ukrainian-controlled territory after enduring Russian pressure, detention and control

Ukrainians who were brought from Russian-occupied territories to Ukrainian-controlled territory, August-September 2026. Photo: Dmytro Lubinets

Ukraine helped 41 citizens escape from Russian-occupied territories into Ukrainian-controlled territory in August and September, including four children and five teenagers, Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said.

For many, the crossing marked the end of months or years under Russian occupation and the beginning of their return to life in government-controlled Ukraine.

They returned to Ukraine via Belarus through the Mokrany-Domanove crossing in Ukraine's Volyn Oblast.

From occupation to safety

Lubinets described several cases among those who returned.

One family was able to leave after the father was released from Russian captivity. Their older son remains in captivity, while the woman and her younger son had been under the control of occupation authorities and, according to their account, were previously taken to a detention facility under the pretext of providing medical care and subjected to forced treatment.

A young medical worker was evacuated shortly before she could have been mobilized into Russia’s armed formations, according to Lubinets.

Another returned man had been detained several times in occupied territory and held in basements. His Ukrainian passport had also been confiscated.

Help continues after the crossing

For those returning, reaching Ukrainian-controlled territory is only the first step. The Ombudsman’s Office and partner organizations provide assistance with restoring documents, financial support, temporary accommodation, psychological and social services, and onward travel.

The office said that, in August and September, its joint project with Caritas Ukraine provided assistance to 1,140 people, including people evacuated from occupied territory.

Ukraine’s efforts to facilitate returns are taking place against a broader problem of displacement from occupied territory. A 2026 UN report documented forcible transfers and deportations from areas occupied by Russia, as well as barriers that make it difficult for displaced Ukrainians to return.

The Mokrany-Domanove crossing is one of the routes through which Ukrainians can return to government-controlled territory, making it a key part of Ukraine’s effort to bring civilians home from occupation.

Others are still waiting to leave

Lubinets said his office continues receiving requests from people seeking to leave occupied territory and works with Ukrainian, international and third-country partners to find routes out.

Lubinets noted that the situation remains particularly difficult in Oleshky and surrounding settlements in Kherson Oblast, where Ukrainian authorities say elderly people, people with disabilities, sick residents and families remain without reliable access to food, water, medicine, healthcare and communications. Recent reporting has put the number of civilians still in Oleshky at around 2,000, including about 50 children.

Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, has been under Russian occupation since 2022, following Russia’s capture of the city during the initial phase of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Photo: Dmyto Lubinets
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Russia retaliates after Hungary expels 10 diplomats, deepening Budapest-Moscow rift since Orbán’s ouster

Péter Magyar waves the Hungarian flag at Tisza party's supermajority victory rally in Budapest, 12 April 2026

Russia has ordered Hungarian diplomatic staff to leave the country weeks after Hungary expelled 10 Russian diplomats over activities Budapest said were incompatible with their diplomatic status, Euronews reported. 

The tit-for-tat expulsions mark a significant change in relations between Budapest and Moscow following Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule as Hungarian Prime Minister.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry summoned Hungary’s chargé d’affaires Gábor Gergics on 1 October and informed him that staff at the Hungarian embassy in Moscow and consulates in St Petersburg and Kazan would have two weeks to leave. Moscow described Hungary’s September expulsion as “baseless and openly unfriendly,” according to Euronews.

Hungary stands by expulsions

Hungary expelled 10 Russian diplomats on 8 September, citing activities it said were unacceptable for diplomats under the Vienna Convention. The government did not publicly provide details of the alleged activities.

Budapest said it was not seeking an escalation but would maintain its decision, while also saying its diplomatic missions in Russia would continue operating.

The expulsions come as Hungary’s foreign policy shifts under Prime Minister Péter Magyar, who took office after Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz lost the April election. Magyar’s government has moved to strengthen Hungary’s alignment with the EU and NATO while maintaining what it describes as pragmatic relations with Moscow.

A break with the Orbán era

Under Orbán, Hungary maintained unusually close relations with Russia compared with other EU members. Budapest continued cooperation with Moscow after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and Orbán repeatedly opposed or delayed EU measures related to Ukraine.

The new government has taken a different position. In September, Hungary expelled the 10 Russian diplomats, and its new foreign policy doctrine identified Russia as a threat to Hungary’s security. Earlier, the government’s guidance for its UN delegation condemned Russia’s war against Ukraine and affirmed Ukraine’s sovereignty and right to self-defense, according to Euronews.

The shift has not amounted to a complete break with Moscow. Magyar has said Hungary will pursue pragmatic relations with Russia, while Budapest continues to seek concessions from Kyiv over the rights of Hungary’s minority in Ukraine.

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Ukrainian grandmother detained in Kazakhstan at Russia’s request while trying to bring grandson back to Ukraine

Russian and Kazakh flags fly as plane contrails form the Russian tricolour above Astana, Kazakhstan, 27 November 2024. Photo via Wikimedia Commons

Kazakhstan detained Ukrainian citizen Liubov Rozhanska in Astana on 1 October at Russia’s request, after she traveled there to receive her grandson, a Ukrainian boy whose father has sought his return to Ukraine, Deutsche Welle (DW) reported.

Russia accuses Rozhanska of attempting to abduct the child and is seeking her detention through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-led security alliance that includes Kazakhstan. 

She could now face deportation to Russia, despite never having entered the country, according to her lawyers cited by DW. 

A Ukrainian child Russia wants to keep

The case involves a boy born in Odesa in 2018. His mother took him from Ukraine to Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast in 2021, before Russia’s full-scale invasion. In 2022, she and the child obtained Russian citizenship.

The boy’s Ukrainian father challenged the child’s residence in court. In March 2025, Ukraine’s Supreme Court ruled that the boy should live in Odesa with his father.

According to Rozhanska’s lawyer, Oleksii Pryanishnikov, the boy’s stepfather and step-grandfather contacted her in July 2026 about arranging the child’s transfer to his Ukrainian father and grandmother.

By August, a Kaliningrad court had issued a warrant to detain Rozhanska in connection with an alleged attempt to abduct the child. Russian investigators were also preparing documents to seek her extradition through the CSTO, according to documents cited by DW.

Rozhanska then traveled to Astana and was detained at the airport after arriving from Istanbul.

Kazakh lawyer Riza Nurbaeva told DW that Rozhanska did not know about the Russian criminal case and had never entered Russia. She said the Ukrainian was detained under the Kaliningrad court’s warrant.

Lawyer alleges political motive

Pryanishnikov described the detention as a “planned operation” by Russia’s Federal Security Service and alleged that it has a political dimension connected to Russia’s war against Ukraine.

His allegation comes in the context of Russia’s documented transfer and deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia and efforts to assimilate them into Russian society, grant them Russian citizenship and sever their ties to Ukraine.

In this case, Russia is using international legal mechanisms to potentially prevent a Ukrainian child from returning to his father in Ukraine.

Rozhanska is currently being held in a Kazakh pretrial detention center. A court hearing is expected within three days, according to DW.

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Sanctions keep catching Russia’s gas tankers, so Moscow is building new ones, UK says

The LNG carrier Aleksey Kosygin

Russia is attempting to build a new "shadow fleet" to "circumvent sanctions and sustain revenues from its gas exports," the UK Foreign Office said on 1 October. Britain sanctioned eight vessels linked to the trade, including some that entered service this year, as part of a 31-designation package.

The sanctions come as the EU prepares to end imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), which arrives by tanker, from the beginning of 2027. London presented the package as part of a push to increase economic pressure on Moscow before winter, noting that Russia launched more than 3,100 jet-powered drones at Ukraine in September, beating the wartime record it had set in August.

The UK sanctions target three shadow fleet vessels, two vessels providing them with bunkering services, and three Russian-owned ice-class vessels, according to the UK Foreign Office.

Russian-built ice-class tankers

The sanctioned vessels include the Russian-flagged Aleksey Kosygin and Konstantin Posiet, which are among a new generation of LNG tankers, The Telegraph reported. The vessels were assembled in Russia and are designed to break through ice up to two meters thick. The Aleksey Kosygin was delivered in December 2025 before entering service this year, according to the paper.

The other sanctioned vessels are the Pyotr Stolypin, Portovyy, Chaivo, Avacha, Bebek-E, and Galle Energy, according to the UK Sanctions Notice. The Telegraph reported that the Pyotr Stolypin entered service this year, while Bebek-E was built in 1979 and Galle Energy is a 75-foot crew transport vessel flagged in Sri Lanka.

From oil tankers to gas carriers

Moscow has also long been accused of moving its oil past Western restrictions using what The Telegraph describes as “a secretive fleet of ageing tankers often with obscure ownership and insurance.” The EU said it had placed more than 670 vessels on its shadow fleet sanctions list as of 23 July, while the UK government said it had targeted nearly 600 tankers.

In June, Britain sanctioned four LNG carriers—the Orion, Merkuriy, Kosmos, and Luch—which are listed in the UK Sanctions List with shipping and trade sanctions. gCaptain reported that the vessels had been purchased through intermediaries, reflagged, and renamed, and were sailing toward China after LNG was transferred to them ship-to-ship near Murmansk.

Later in June, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service said Russia was assembling a fleet of aging gas tankers ahead of the EU restrictions. The service said seven of about 23 vessels had been bought through front companies between February 2024 and May 2025, and that their use “allows Russia to partially circumvent restrictions.”

Sanctions spare LNG bound for Japan and South Korea

The package also targets Novatek Gas and Power Asia, a Singapore subsidiary of Russia's largest LNG producer, Novatek. Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the Ukrainian president’s commissioner for sanctions policy, described it as Novatek’s Singapore trading arm in a post on X.

The new package leaves a limited route for some Russian LNG to continue reaching Japan and South Korea. The UK said existing licensing arrangements have been extended to cover LNG, on a targeted and time-limited basis, to support the two countries’ energy security.

Vlasiuk said Russia’s Arctic gas is “one of the Kremlin’s key future revenue streams,” and that “it must stay frozen,” according to his post on X. He also thanked the UK for taking Ukraine’s proposals into account.

Torture and child indoctrination also targeted

The 1 October package contained 31 designations in total. It also targeted eight people involved in the arbitrary detention, torture, and ill-treatment of Ukrainian civilians and seven people over the indoctrination and militarization of Ukrainian children, according to the UK government. The government said international sanctions have already deprived Russia of nearly $500bn in funding for its war effort.

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Russia repeatedly attacks bridge connecting Kyiv’s two sides across the Dnipro river, disrupting transport across the capital

Damage to Kyiv's Southern Bridge connecting the left and right banks of the city following several Russian drone strikes on 1-2 October, 2026. Photo: Ukraine's State Emergency Service

Russian forces have repeatedly struck Kyiv’s Southern Bridge with drones since 1 October, disrupting one of the capital’s main routes between the left and right banks of the Dnipro.

The strikes are part of a broader intensification of Russian drone attacks on the capital. In recent weeks, Russia has begun launching daily attacks involving jet-powered Geran drones, increasingly disrupting everyday life in Kyiv.

The Southern Bridge is an important road and rail crossing over the Dnipro. It carries road traffic between Kyiv's left and right banks and also forms part of the city's metro network.

The bridge was fully closed to traffic following the latest attacks, while restrictions were also introduced on the Metro and Paton bridges, according to Suspilne. Public transport has been diverted to alternative routes, while the disruptions have caused major traffic congestion across Kyiv.

Update 17:50: Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said Russian forces have struck the Southern Bridge again on the evening of 2 October. The bridge remains closed to road traffic and metro services following several previous attacks. Emergency services are heading to the site.

Bridge targeted repeatedly

The Southern Bridge came under attack multiple times on 1 October and was targeted again during the overnight attack into 2 October.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian forces struck the bridge several times with drones during the night. He said the attacks were part of a larger Russian barrage involving more than 100 attack drones, nearly 50 of them jet-powered Gerans.

The bridge has not been destroyed, but the repeated strikes have forced authorities to limit its use and reorganize traffic across the Dnipro.

Ukrainian analyst Andrii Kovalenko said the Southern Bridge is difficult to destroy with the weapons Russia is using. However, he said such strikes can damage the bridge enough to disrupt its normal operation, while the resulting disruption can also be used to spread panic.

Russia’s repeated strikes on Kyiv’s Southern Bridge are now severely disrupting traffic across the capital.

Major roads are gridlocked, with some people reportedly walking across bridges as traffic comes to a standstill. Photos from Suspilne show the resulting congestion on… pic.twitter.com/7SyYG0WOCO

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 2, 2026

Zelenskyy: Russia is targeting bridges and critical infrastructure

Zelenskyy said Russia's intensified attacks are part of a broader effort to disrupt life in Ukrainian cities and damage infrastructure beyond individual military targets.

Citing Ukrainian intelligence and people he said are close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Zelenskyy claimed Putin said in early September: “Now, there are no rules.” Zelenskyy said Russia had failed to occupy Ukraine and was therefore turning to mass attacks and killings.

“They want to destroy our bridges and, as we understand it, our data centers, internet, mobile networks, hospitals, kindergartens, schools, universities – everything,” Zelenskyy said.

He added that Russia wants to force Ukrainians to leave their cities. “They want people to flee their cities, and we need to do everything to save our people and our cities,” he said.

A key crossing for Kyiv disrupted

The bridge’s closure puts additional pressure on the capital's other bridges. On 2 October, traffic on the Metro Bridge was restricted to one lane toward the right bank, while traffic from the right bank toward the left was restricted on the Paton Bridge.

Several bus routes were diverted to other bridges. Kyiv authorities reported major traffic jams on the city's main roads as the restrictions disrupted normal movement between the two sides of the capital.

Metro service across the Southern Bridge also remains tied to an assessment of the structure. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Friday the metro can resume crossing the bridge during yellow-level air alerts after experts provide an assessment confirming its condition.

Part of a wider campaign against Kyiv

The bridge strikes came alongside attacks on civilian areas of Kyiv. A Russian drone hit the upper floors of a 25-story residential building in the Darnytskyi district on 2 October, causing a fire on the 24th and 25th floors.

One person was killed and two were injured. The attack also damaged buildings and vehicles in the Holosiivskyi district.

A Russian drone struck a 25-story residential building in Kyiv’s Darnytskyi district this morning.

According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russia launched more than 100 attack drones at Ukraine overnight, including nearly 50 jet-powered drones.

In Kyiv, the strike caused a… pic.twitter.com/jiGjJeUgVf

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 2, 2026

The growing frequency of jet-powered Geran attacks is making the impact of Russian strikes increasingly visible beyond individual damage sites. Repeated attacks on infrastructure such as the Southern Bridge can disrupt transportation and daily routines across the capital even when the targeted structures are not destroyed.

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Ukraine files a minority-schooling bill, and Hungary agrees to unblock two of its EU-accession clusters

magyar zelensky

Ukraine's parliament registered a bill on minority-language schooling on 1 October to lift Hungary's block on the country's European Union membership talks, Ukrinform reported. Kyiv acts first with the legislation. Budapest reciprocates by letting the EU push the stalled accession process forward. Hungary's government welcomed the text within a day.

Ukraine's route into the European Union turns on unanimous votes, so one member state's leverage can stall the entire queue—and Kyiv is trying to pry the clusters open one bargain at a time before the window for this year's progress closes.

A tightly timed swap

European Pravda, citing unnamed sources, reported that the two capitals agreed to move in parallel after a public standoff, with neither side willing to go first on trust alone. Ukraine registers and passes the bill. In return, Hungary is to let the Council of the EU presidency send Kyiv, on 6 October, the requests needed to open two negotiating clusters—stages of the membership process. The Rada plans an extraordinary session on 12 October to adopt it, and European Pravda says the votes are there. A Council of the EU decision is due on 13 October, ahead of a European Council summit two days later. Deputy Prime Minister Vsevolod Chentsov said rebuilding trust will take concrete steps from both governments.

What the bill changes

Lawmakers filed Bill No. 16119, which creates a national minority school status: a school qualifies when over half its pupils—50% plus one—study in a national-minority language that is also an official EU language. By Education Ministry estimates, that fits about 149 schools, roughly 1.2% of Ukraine's general secondary institutions. Ukrainian stays the language of instruction, and the bill does not return Russian to classrooms.

peter magyar speaking at the european parliament
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Pupils at qualifying schools could use the minority language with teachers and classmates, not only in lessons, and parents could petition to add subjects taught in Ukrainian. The text also covers Ukraine's indigenous peoples, such as Crimean Tatars, and drops a Ukrainian-language certificate requirement for the heads of 29 private schools for as long as they stay in their posts. Education committee head Serhii Babak said the solution protects Ukrainian while meeting an EU accession commitment.

What changed in Budapest

Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar posted on Facebook that the bill strengthens legal guarantees for Hungarian-language education and the school network, and wrote that he expects those rights honored in practice. European Pravda framed the outcome as a win Magyar's own voters can read as delivering what the previous government never secured. Foreign Minister Anita Orbán said the new government had achieved more in a few months for the Hungarian minority in Zakarpattia than Viktor Orbán's cabinet managed in ten years. Under Magyar, Hungary agreed in June to open the first accession cluster but kept slowing the rest. Only in recent weeks, European Pravda wrote, did Budapest abandon Orbán-style unconditional blocking. This bill is meant to free the next two.

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Ukraine turned ground robots into a frontline workhorse. Its first competitive tender may reward cheap copies over proven machines, an officer warns

ukraine turned ground robots frontline workhorse its first competitive tender reward cheap copies over proven machines officer warns · post fifth-generation themis unmanned vehicle developed milrem robotics themis_5th_generation_ugv-1536x1024jpg news ukrainian

Ukraine has turned ground robots into a frontline workhorse, and the state is now trying to buy them at scale through its first competitive, ministry-spec tender. Viktor Pavlov, an officer of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade's UGV battalion, laid out the risks of that model to Army Inform, the Defense Ministry's outlet, in an interview. Once a robot clears the military's technical requirements, price becomes the main criterion, Pavlov says. The order is split into lots, and no maker can take more than half a class. He warns the model may not tell a cheap, makeshift machine from one that actually survives at the front.

Robots now handle the war's deadliest chores—driving supplies through kill zones and reaching the wounded where people can't—and Ukraine has already contracted more than 22,000 for 2026. How the military buys them now shapes whether the push yields machines troops trust or a stockpile of cheap ones they don't.

From disposable drones to the next mass weapon

Aerial drones became disposable, mass-produced weapons years ago. Ground robots—the tracked and wheeled machines that haul supplies, pull out the wounded, and attack Russian positions—are only now reaching serial state supply. In August, the Defense Procurement Agency (DOT), the body that buys Ukraine's arms, opened its first competitive tenders for logistics and strike robots built to specs set by the Defense Ministry. Pavlov, founder of Ukraine's UGV School, calls it an experimental format that can work where market prices are inflated. Splitting the order into lots also gives smaller engineering teams a real chance, he said, because many large producers are already busy with state contracts.

The image shows a Ukrainian soldier standing next to an unmanned ground robotic vehicle. Source: The General Staff
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Why the lowest bid may beat the best robot

A tender rewards the cheapest product that formally meets the requirements, not the best one, Pavlov said. A thermal camera, for example, can be listed as desirable rather than mandatory, so a maker chasing the lowest price will most likely leave it off. On any given feature the machines diverge—suspension, cameras, comms channels, a winch—one has it, another doesn't, yet both can land in the same class.

The machines themselves are very different. One carries 250 kilograms, another up to 349, but both fall into the "200-plus" category. Unlike FPV drones, which share standard sizes and parts, ground robots have no common frame—Ukraine fields many local variants. Pavlov compared the choice to picking an iPhone over a cheaper Android: on paper the features match, but soldiers know which machine they can run and repair.

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He also fears the model punishes innovation. A company can spend 18 months and a 20-person team building a robot, then watch a rival copy it, skip the research costs, and undercut it. A design troops already know how to run and repair—like the Ratel—is a known quantity. An untested bargain can break down mid-mission with no spare parts.

A mixed system, not tenders alone

Price competition should be one tool, not the only one, Pavlov argued. New robots should first reach units through pilot buys, letting soldiers test them and say what works. Proven systems can then be contracted in bulk, with tenders saved for classes where the offers are truly comparable. Ukraine's robots are too varied, he said, and what units need can't always be squeezed onto a spec sheet.

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Ukrainian firm fields 11 crewless boats and eight drones at NATO’s biggest naval drone drill

UFORCE drone control station. September 2026.

UFORCE, a Ukrainian defense company, says it fielded 11 crewless boats and eight drones at NATO's largest unmanned-systems exercise in Portugal, Militarnyi reported. The firm's crews acted as both mock enemy and allied forces alongside Ukraine's Navy during the 31 August–25 September drills. The turnout more than doubled the company's presence at last year's exercise, when it brought five vessels.

Ukraine began the all-out war without large warships, yet uncrewed boats drove Russia's Black Sea Fleet out of its main base on the Black Sea—a result that now pulls far larger navies to the same ranges to test the weapon for themselves.

Ukraine brings its sea-drone playbook to Portugal's NATO exercise

UFORCE joined REPMUS 26, the Portuguese Navy's annual exercise, co-organized with NATO, where member states try out robots and drones built for combat at sea. This year the company widened its presence sharply, UFORCE said on LinkedIn. Across the scenarios, its crews ran strikes, reconnaissance, and defense.

At the center sat the MV7, an uncrewed boat UFORCE showed in every setup it offers. Across its configurations, the MV7 carried interceptors, FPV drones, other kinetic weapons, and electronic-warfare gear. Crews launched flying drones straight off the decks while the boats sat on the water, all run by a single control program.

The company brought three systems to REPMUS for the first time: the Nemesis SeaStrike drone, which launches from the MV7, the MV11 boat, and a supply vessel called L11. UFORCE teams worked beside Ukraine's Navy throughout. Portuguese President António José Seguro inspected the MV7 on the pier, the company said.

Not Ukraine's first visit

Ukraine was at REPMUS last year, too. At REPMUS 2025, a Ukrainian-led "enemy" team beat NATO's side across all five drill scenarios and, in one, landed enough mock strikes on a NATO frigate to have sunk it in a real battle. Ukraine also brought the upgraded Magura v7.2 to that year's drills.

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The US midterm races that will decide control of Congress – mapped

These graphics explain what the Democrats would need to do to flip the Senate and House of Representatives

A turning point in Donald Trump’s second term will soon arrive. On 3 November, voters across the US will decide whether to keep the president’s Republican allies in control of Congress, or return Democrats to the majority.

Many indicators of voter sentiment suggest the Democrats are favored to take back control of the House of Representatives, and potentially the Senate. Winning either would be a significant victory for the party and give it the power to block Trump’s legislative agenda and more aggressively investigate his administration.

Continue reading...

© Illustration: Guardian Design / Getty Images

© Illustration: Guardian Design / Getty Images

© Illustration: Guardian Design / Getty Images

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Russia paid with more than 46,000 casualties, and the front moved the other way, ISW finds

russia paid more than 46000 casualties front moved other way isw finds · post russian ukrainian territorial gains including infiltrations ukraine between 1 30 2026 russian-territorial-gains-in-ukraine-including-infiltrations-sep-1-to-sep-30-2026 news reports

Russia lost almost 300 km² of Ukrainian territory on net between March and September 2026, and it likely gained no ground in September despite its heaviest casualties of the year, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed. Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi accounts for much of the swing. The think tank notes that Ukraine's secrecy around such counterattacks makes exact monthly tallies hard.

Russia has pressed attacks along the entire front through 2026, accepting mass casualties for marginal ground, and its battlefield year has already been called its worst since 2023. Its losses have been outpacing its recruitment for months.

Russia came out behind in September

Russian forces seized 175.54 km² in September but lost 256.35 km², a net loss of 80.81 km², or minus 2.69 km² a day, ISW calculated. The balance stayed negative when Russian infiltrations into areas Russia does not control are counted: Russia seized or infiltrated 143.2 km² but lost 318.38 km², a net loss of 175.18 km².

Russian territorial gains in Ukraine with and without infiltrations, April–September 2026.
Russian territorial gains in Ukraine with and without infiltrations, April–September 2026. Graphic: ISW

The September figures include at least 147 km² near Lyman that Ukraine liberated over earlier months, but that ISW recorded only once details of Operation Vivaldi emerged in September. The operation already disrupted Russia's plan to encircle the Fortress Belt cities from the Lyman and Dobropillia directions.

Ukraine's Third Army Corps commander Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi announcing "Operation Vivaldi," 15 September 2026. Screenshot from video: Ukraine's Third Army Corps
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Almost 300 km² lost since March

Russia's rate of seizing territory dropped sharply in March 2026 and has stayed low, or even negative, since, ISW found. After controlling for the gains Ukraine made during Vivaldi, Russia lost control of 293.59 km² net across the front since March. Counting infiltrations, it gained a presence in only 174.44 km² over the same period.

ISW's monthly chart shows net Russian losses of 116.01 km² in April and 281.1 km² in May, modest gains in June, July, and August, and a net loss again in September. Oleksandr Syrskyi, then Ukraine's commander-in-chief, reported in June that Ukrainian forces had recaptured 100 km² in May.

Russian casualties by month as reported by Ukraine's General Staff, April–September 2026.
Russian casualties by month as reported by Ukraine's General Staff, April–September 2026. Graphic: ISW

More than 46,000 casualties for no ground

Russian forces suffered 46,230 casualties in September, Ukraine's General Staff reported. It is the third straight month above 40,000 and the highest monthly toll of 2026, by Kyiv's count. Monthly Russian casualties have climbed from 32,980 in April to 42,860 in July and 42,020 in August, ISW's chart shows.

Russia keeps suffering heavy personnel losses while making extremely limited or even net-negative territorial gains, ISW said, and its current force generation system still recruits fewer soldiers than it needs to replace them.

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Ukraine's effective operational security around Vivaldi, likely to continue in future counterattacks, will make meaningful month-to-month assessments of Russian gains and losses hard, the think tank added.

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Drones hit Russia’s Volgograd and Samara overnight—fires near a Lukoil refinery, a chemical plant, and likely Europe’s largest oil tank farm in Samara

drones hit russia's volgograd samara overnight—fires near lukoil refinery chemical plant likely europe's largest oil tank farm · post fire area kaustik russia 2 2026 пожежа ймовірно в районі волгоградського

Drones attacked Russia's Volgograd and Samara oblasts overnight on 2 October, sparking fires near an oil refinery, a chemical plant, and likely a major oil-transport hub, Ukrainian and Russian monitoring channels reported. Regional officials acknowledged the attack but not the fires, and the extent of any damage remains unconfirmed.

Explosions and a glow over Volgograd's refinery district

Explosions sounded for a long time in Volgograd itself and around the refinery's industrial zone, Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ wrote.

Residents reported drones flying over and blasts "in all districts of the city," and complained that no air raid alert sounded, Russian news Telegram channel Astra reported. Its OSINT analysis of eyewitness footage placed the glow near the Lukoil refinery and the neighboring Kaustik chemical plant, though the available videos do not show which facility caught fire.

Volgograd Oblast Governor Andrei Bocharov claimed a "massive drone attack" on the region's industrial infrastructure. He mentioned a fire in an apartment building and one person hospitalized, but no fires at plants.

Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka is one of Russia's largest refineries. It processes 14.8–15.7 million tons of crude a year, about 5% of Russia's refining, and makes gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, and bitumen, according to Astra.

lukoil’s norsi refinery in kstovo, nizhny novgorod oblast
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Drones have hit the plant repeatedly. In May 2025, strikes damaged its ELOU-AVT-1 and ELOU-AVT-6 primary processing units. A 29 May 2026 strike halted production at the plant, about 500 km east of the war zone, Ukraine's General Staff said. On 31 July, drones set the refinery ablaze again, and Astra reported the AVT-1 and AVT-6 units stopped.

Kaustik sits in Volgograd's southern Krasnoarmeysky district. It is one of the region's leading plants and makes basic chemicals with dual civilian and military use, Astra wrote. The outlet called that output critical to Russia's military industry. The plant runs chlor-alkali production built on salt electrolysis. It makes hydrochloric acid, plastics, synthetic resins, and industrial gases, according to OSINT-Varta. Such products can serve military industry too, including polymer parts and protective coatings for hardware, Militarnyi noted.

Europe's largest tank farm likely on fire near Samara

Explosions also rocked Samara, with an especially strong one around 06:30, Astra reported. Its OSINT expert linked reader photos to a fire at the Samara linear production dispatch station in the settlement of Prosvet.

Ukrainian monitoring channel Supernova+ shared video of thick black smoke on the horizon and reported a fire at the station. Exilenova+ reported explosions in Samara followed by a fire.

The station belongs to Transneft, Russia's state pipeline operator. It covers more than 216 hectares and holds 71 tanks with a combined capacity of over 1.6 million m³ of crude. Astra called it Europe's largest tank farm.

Four trunk pipelines converge there, carrying oil from Western Siberia, Tatarstan, Orenburg Oblast, and Kazakhstan. The station blends high- and low-sulfur crude into Urals, Russia's flagship export grade, according to Militarnyi.

Samara authorities did not comment on the fire. Mayor Ivan Noskov stated only that ground public transport was suspended. Samara Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev did not report an attack at all.

The station has been hit before. Operators of the 14th Regiment of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck it again overnight on 23 September 2025. On 21 April 2026, drones of the Security Service of Ukraine's Alfa special operations center hit it, reportedly damaging five crude tanks of about 20,000 m³ each.

one refinery night moscow ufa now samara—ukraine working through russia's fuel chain · post smoke plume burning kuibyshev stretching across samara skyline 22 2026 exilenova 5877644049043362820 ukraine news ukrainian reports
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Ukraine shut down this Samara refinery in June—now its drones are back, and both distillation units are burning again

Ukraine's long-range drones have already pushed Russia's fuel shortages into Central Asia, and Washington has pressed Kyiv to stop, so every hit on processing or export logistics tests how long oil can fund Moscow's war.

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Spain, Belgium, and Poland are sending Ukraine F-16 cannon rounds to fight Russia’s jet drones

ukraine's defenses against jet drones aren't built up yet its f-16s getting more rounds meantime · post ukrainian foreign minister andrii sybiha сибіга andrij 7ca21 ukraine news reports

Ukraine may soon receive a multimillion package of 20-mm rounds for its F-16 fighter jets, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told journalists, Hromadske reported. He called the ammunition critical for shooting down Russia's jet-powered drones and said several partners have already begun transferring it. He expects the larger package after an upcoming high-level visit.

Russia now strikes Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities daily, increasingly with jet-powered drones that outrun the cheap interceptors built for slower Shaheds. Fighter jets are among the tools Ukraine uses against them, while its overall interception rate for jet drones still trails its rate against propeller drones.

"Critically important" ammunition

Sybiha said Ukraine has yet to build up its capability to repel jet drones.

"Given that we have not yet built up the capability to repel jet drones, and given the preparations for new strikes, it was critically important to help our military shoot down these drones. Apart from air defense systems, which are too expensive to use constantly against drones, the most effective tools right now are F-16 fighter jets," Sybiha said.

He thanked Spain, Belgium, and Poland, which have begun the process of transferring the ammunition, and said that thanks to them Ukraine will "very soon" have the rounds it needs.

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Belgium will send three F-16 fighter jets, but maintenance delays may keep Ukraine from using them

A "very serious visit" ahead

Sybiha linked the larger package to a visit he did not name.

"We will soon have one very serious visit. We think that one of the decisions following this visit will be a multimillion package of this ammunition for Ukraine," he said.

Talks on buying the rounds from private manufacturers are also underway, he added.

Ukraine has already received urgent batches of F-16 ammunition from Belgium, Spain, and other partners, and Belgium plans to send three more F-16s by the end of 2026 under an accelerated procedure. The jets' air-to-air missiles and cannon rounds are imported and not always in stock.

money engineering what stands between ukraine russia's fastest drones zelenskyy says · post russia’s new “geran-4 seeker” shahed variant geran-4 news ukrainian reports
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Combat shows speed alone can’t catch Russia’s jet-powered drones, despite eight Ukrainian makers’ assurances. So why can’t they stop them?

Another night of Russian strikes

Overnight on 2 October, Russia launched 108 drones at Ukraine, 47 of them jet-powered, and air defenses downed 88 of them. In Kyiv, a Russian strike on a 25-story residential building in the Darnytskyi district killed one person and injured two. Russia also targeted the Southern Bridge again, after striking it three times the previous day, and the city restricted public transport across several bridges.

In Kharkiv Oblast, a Russian FPV drone hit a car in the Solonytsivka hromada on the afternoon of 1 October, injuring a man and a boy. A Russian strike damaged a civilian enterprise in Rivne Oblast and started a fire that forced an evacuation of nearby homes, regional head Oleksandr Koval said, and drones attacked Cherkasy Oblast.

In neighboring Romania, an object believed to be a drone crashed near the village of Plauru in Tulcea County during the attack, starting a fire that caused no casualties, Romania's Defense Ministry said.

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