Russia’s consumption of its pre-war Soviet-era tank stores “appears to be slowing,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as Moscow increasingly shifts to using motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Shift in equipment usage linked to depleted reserves

On 16 June, ISW cited a social media source that analyzes satellite imagery of Russian military depots. This source assessed that, as of a recent but unspecified date, Russia retained 46% of its pre-war tank reserves, 42% of its infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) reserves, and 48% of its armored personnel carrier (APC) reserves.

The data reflects only a modest decline from December 2024, when the same source assessed Russia had 47% of tanks, 52% of IFVs, and 45% of APCs still in storage. The adjusted figures stem from an update made on 15 June, when the source revised Russia’s original pre-war equipment estimates—adding 241 tanks, 174 IFVs, and 687 APCs—affecting percentage shifts accordingly.

The same source reported that most vehicle reserves have been withdrawn from eight key Russian depots. Based on this trend, the source concluded that Russia is likely to exhaust its remaining armored reserves by the end of 2025.

Surge in equipment activity near Finland

Satellite imagery also revealed what the source called a “dramatic” increase in nearly all types of military equipment deployed to a Russian base near Petrozavodsk, in the Republic of Karelia. This location lies approximately 373 kilometers from the Finnish border.

However, the source acknowledged that Russia may still hold additional vehicles in covered storage not visible via satellite surveillance, according to ISW.

The Wall Street Journal reported on 27 April that a senior Finnish military official claimed Russia is sending “almost none” of its newly manufactured tanks to Ukraine. 

Frontline use of motorcycles and buggies grows

ISW noted that the slowing consumption of tank reserves aligns with an observed increase in the use of motorcycles and buggies on the Ukrainian frontline. Since late fall 2024, Russian troops have employed these unarmored civilian vehicles more frequently, especially in contested “gray zones” shaped by Ukrainian and Russian drone activity.

Combat footage reviewed by ISW confirms this shift, with lighter and faster vehicles used to counter the vulnerability of traditional armored units to drone strikes. The think tank previously linked this trend to the heavy armored vehicle losses sustained by Russian forces in late 2023 and 2024.

Tactical gains come at high cost

While these adaptations have allowed Russian troops to make minor tactical advances, ISW emphasized they come at the expense of significant infantry losses. 

“ISW previously assessed that Russian armored vehicle losses are unsustainable and are undermining Russia’s ability to sustain a protracted high-intensity war, but it remains unclear if Russia’s increased reliance on motorcycles and buggies will be sufficient to offset these losses in the medium- to long-term,” the think tank wrote.

Finland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called in Russia’s chargé d’affaires for questioning following a suspected airspace violation on 10 June, marking the second such incident within a month.

Finnish authorities suspect a Russian military aircraft breached the country’s airspace on 10 June near the coastal city of Porvoo. The Border Guard has launched an investigation into the incident, according to Yle.

The diplomatic meeting is scheduled for 11 June, though ministry officials have not disclosed specific details about the proceedings.

This latest violation follows a similar incident that occurred at the end of May. Following that previous breach, Finland’s foreign ministry summoned Russian Ambassador to Finland Pavel Kuznetsov and formally delivered a diplomatic note addressing the matter.

Russia builds up forces along Finnish border

The airspace incidents come amid broader concerns about Russian military activities along Finland’s border. In May, Major General Sami Nurmi, head of the strategic department of Finland’s Defense Forces, indicated that the country anticipates further Russian military buildup along their shared border after the conclusion of the war in Ukraine.

Earlier, Western media outlets have published satellite imagery showing Russia’s expansion of military installations near the Finnish border. The images revealed new military housing facilities and enlarged storage areas for military equipment.

Finnish intelligence services assessed that Russia could strengthen its military presence along the Finnish border to what they describe as a “threatening level” within the next five years.

NATO intelligence sources also told a Finnish newspaper that Russia is actively maintaining and updating plans for a potential multi-front offensive against NATO’s eastern flank, targeting Finland, Norway, and the Baltic states, with intelligence indicating it could amass up to 600,000 troops along these borders despite its main forces being engaged in Ukraine. 

A Russian military aircraft is suspected of violating Finland's airspace on June 10, the country's Defense Ministry said in a statement.

"The investigation into the suspect's airspace breach has been launched immediately," Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen said. The Finnish border guard is investigating and will share more information as the probe continues, according to the Finnish Defense Ministry.

The alleged violation occurred near the city of Porvoo, located about 50 km east of Helsinki. The city lies in the country's far-south, along the Gulf of Finland.

Russia regularly stages provocations on NATO's eastern flank, which includes Poland, Finland, and the Baltic countries. On May 22, two Russian aircraft violated Finnish airspace, while the day prior Polish fighter jets intercepted a Russian Su-24 bomber in international airspace over the Baltic Sea.

Russian aircraft frequently fly from its exclave, Kaliningrad. The jets often disable their transponders, fail to file flight plans, and do not establish contact with regional air traffic control — a pattern NATO officials describe as high-risk behavior.

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, NATO officials have increasingly warned Moscow could attack the alliance's members in the coming years. In anticipation of increased hostilities, Finland has said it expects a Russian military build-up on its borders after the war in Ukraine ends.

On May 19, the New York Times published satellite images which seem to indicate an expansion of military facilities near the Finnish border.

Finland joined NATO in 2023 following the onset of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022 and shares a 1,300-kilometer (800-mile) border with Russia.

NATO countries in Russia's vicinity have intensified their preparations for a possible conflict. Poland and the Baltic countries moved to abandon a treaty banning land mines and are strengthening the borders shared with Russia and its ally Belarus while urging higher defense spending across the alliance.

Germany plans expansion of air raid shelters amid growing Russian threats, official says

“We must quickly create space for 1 million people,” Ralph Tiesler, the head of the Germany’s Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance told Suddeutsche Zeitung. “Existing structures must be assessed and adapted without delay.”

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo on June 7 criticized a weakened Russia sanctions bill amid reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is pressuring the Senate to weaken the legislation.

"We need to force (Russian President Vladimir) Putin to the negotiating table," Orpo said at the Finnish National Coalition Party’s assembly on June 7.

"I hope that the United States passes it as quickly and as completely as possible," Orpo told reporters at the assembly in Helsinki.

The White House is urging Republican Senator Lindsey Graham to soften a Russia sanctions bill he is leading, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on June 6, citing congressional staffers.

The bipartisan sanctions bill could introduce a 500% tariff on imports from countries that continue purchasing Russian oil and raw materials.

"We will discuss these issues at the (NATO) summit... We should get decisions now," Orpo said.

A NATO summit is slated to take place June 24-26 in the Netherlands. The important meeting is expected to cover a wide range of issues, including defense spending and Russia's war against Ukraine.

At a June 5 joint press conference alongside German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Trump said lawmakers were waiting for his approval before advancing the Russian sanctions bill.

"They'll be guided by me. That's how it's supposed to be," Trump said. "They're waiting for me to decide on what to do."

Senate Democrat Richard Blumenthal, who also leads the sanctions bill, has confirmed that negotiations have been taking place behind the scenes with White House officials.

Operation Spiderweb ‘gave Putin a reason to bomb the hell out of them,’ Trump says, following large-scale attacks on Ukrainian cities

U.S. President Donald Trump on June 6 appeared to justify Russia’s large-scale attack on Ukrainian cities launched the night before, in response to Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb.

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo called for the United States to accelerate implementation of Russia sanctions, warning that Trump administration efforts to weaken proposed measures represent “the wrong direction,” yle reported on 7 June.

“I hope that the United States will put it forward as quickly as possible and as it is,” Orpo said during a press conference in Helsinki as his National Coalition Party’s council convened.

The comments follow Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration is attempting to dilute Russia sanctions legislation pending in the Senate. According to the newspaper’s sources, administration officials have pressed Republican Senator Lindsey Graham to soften his sanctions proposal.

Orpo described Graham’s prepared package as “very strong” and emphasized the need for swift action. “Now we should get decisions,” the prime minister said.

The Finnish leader framed the sanctions push as part of broader strategy to end the war in Ukraine. “We have to force Putin to the negotiating table,” Orpo said.

According to Wall Street Journal reporting, the planned US sanctions would target key Russian officials. In recent weeks, administration representatives have contacted Graham urging him to add exceptions to the proposal and soften the legislative language.

The bipartisan Senate bill, introduced by Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham with 80 co-sponsors, includes provisions for additional economic sanctions against Russia for refusing a ceasefire. The legislation proposes implementing 500-percent tariffs on goods imported from countries purchasing Russian oil.

White House spokesperson Caroline Levitt indicated that Trump will make the final decision on potential sanctions escalation against Russia.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the biggest in Europe, occupied by Russian forces since March 2022, remains completely shut down, with all six reactors in a cold shutdown state.

In an interview with Reuters, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi emphasized that restarting the plant is not feasible under current conditions.

The key issues are an unstable power supply and, more critically, a lack of cooling water, which is essential for the safe operation of nuclear reactors.

“We are not in a situation of imminent restart of the plant. Far from that, it would take quite some time before that can be done,” Grossi said.

He explained that to bring even a single reactor back online, it would be necessary to install a new pumping system to draw water from the Dnipro River and inspect all equipment that has remained inactive for nearly three years.

Currently, IAEA missions access the plant from Russian-occupied territory, as Moscow no longer guarantees the safety of international experts entering from the Ukrainian side, as was previously the case.

Meanwhile, Greenpeace reports that Russian forces are building a new power line along the Azov Sea coast to connect the plant directly to Russia’s power grid. This may signal preparations to restart the plant independently, bypassing Ukrainian oversight.

In response, Ukraine has sent a formal diplomatic note to the IAEA, stressing that any attempt to restart the plant without authorization from Ukraine’s nuclear regulatory authority is illegal and poses an unacceptable threat to nuclear safety.

Today, we will discuss the increased Russian provocations and calls for the denazification of the Baltic countries. Not wanting to be caught off guard and taking these threats seriously, these countries are already taking measures to improve their security.

He accused these nations of showing high aggressiveness and claimed they were underestimating the devastating consequences of provoking Moscow.

This statement echoed a wave of similarly hostile rhetoric from Russian state officials and media figures over the past two years.

Questioning the sovereignty of nations

Russian officials, including former president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, have repeatedly questioned the sovereignty of the Baltic countries.

Medvedev declared that the Baltic states belong to Russia and accused NATO of harboring anti-Russian intentions. State television host Vladimir Solovyov has gone even further, stating that these countries don’t need independence and that their sovereignty is a joke.

Such statements are not isolated; they reflect a coordinated campaign to frame the Baltics as illegitimate states and NATO’s eastern flank as a battleground ripe for denazification, a chilling repeat of the Russian justification for its war on Ukraine.

The return of a dangerous word: “denazification”

The term denazification is particularly troubling, as it has historically been used by Russia as a pretext for aggression. Prior to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow framed its war aims in identical terms, alleging that Kyiv needed to be cleansed of Nazis despite Ukraine being a functioning democracy with a Jewish president.

Now, with similar language being used against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the fear is that these statements may not be mere propaganda but early signs of a more expansive regional strategy.

NATO’s Achilles heel

From a military standpoint, the Baltic states represent a significant weakness for Russia, making them a tempting target.

Kaliningrad, Russia’s exclave on the Baltic Sea, is completely isolated and surrounded by NATO territory, so prominent Russian media and political figures are constantly calling for the establishment of a direct land route to Kaliningrad.

Most important is the narrow Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania, as control over it would either sever or restore Russian land access to Kaliningrad, depending on who holds it.

Russia’s Baltic fleet faces a NATO wall

At the same time, since Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the Baltic Sea has become almost entirely encircled by NATO members, severely limiting Russian maritime maneuverability.

Russia’s Baltic Fleet, already small and aging, is no match for the combined naval power of NATO states in the region. On land, the Baltic countries host forward-deployed NATO battle groups and conduct regular military exercises to prepare for rapid mobilization.

These factors make any quick land grab by Russia, a tactic used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, far less likely to succeed here. This only seems to enrage the Russian government further, fueling its hostile campaign.

No longer just words

Russia’s scare tactics extend beyond mere threats. The Kremlin actively invokes the presence of Russian-speaking populations in the Baltics, around 24% in Estonia and Latvia, as a rationale for intervention, much like it did in Ukraine.

These demographics are a legacy of Soviet-era population transfers and remain a sensitive issue.

Russian state media routinely portrays these ethnic Russians as oppressed and in need of protection, laying the narrative groundwork for a potential future military action.

Russia repeats Ukraine’s playbook

The Baltics are not ignoring these signals. They have witnessed firsthand how Russia used similar rhetoric to justify its invasion of Ukraine.

What was once dismissed as empty words has become a forerunner of real war. As such, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are bolstering their defenses, strengthening their ties with NATO, and preparing for the possibility of battle.

The line between information warfare and justification for full-scale war is growing thinner, and with every new threat from Russia, the sense of urgency increases.

Overall, Russia’s repeated calls for the denazification of the Baltic states and its threats of direct retaliation are viewed with the utmost seriousness by their governments.

The parallels with the lead-up to the war in Ukraine are stark, and after a series of provocations in the last months, the stakes are higher than ever.

For Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, preparing for the worst is not paranoia. It’s a necessity, and they are actively working to improve their security.

In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Aircraft thundered over Finland’s forests as soldiers stormed an airstrip. Amid threats from Russia, the country held joint drills with Poland in which NATO allies simulated both an attack and a defense of an airfield, based on the example of Russia’s failed 2022 operation in Hostomel, Kyiv Oblast, Business Insider reports. 

The drills Northern Forest Saber involved airdropping a red team, consisting of Polish airborne forces and Finnish units, onto a runway in a forest. Their objective was to capture and hold the airfield to enable the arrival of reinforcements and heavy weapons.

At the same time, the blue team, composed exclusively of Finnish troops, had to repel the assault and retake control of the site.

Finland, which lacks its own airborne forces, gained invaluable experience through cooperation with its Polish counterparts. Colonel Matti Honko of the Finnish army acknowledged: “You need to suppress air defenses and secure air superiority. Before you can do that, there’s a lot you must be capable of.”

Polish Brigadier General Michał Strzelecki added that airborne operations are even more complex today than in the past but remain critical in the early phases of war: “Rapid deployment of troops through airborne operations can be decisive.”

NATO openly acknowledges that such training incorporates lessons from the war in Ukraine.

Despite Russia’s plan’s failure, NATO allies, especially those bordering Russia, are determined not to repeat the enemy’s mistakes and are preparing today for potential scenarios of aggression.

On 24 May, Finnish defense minister Antti Häkkänen said on YLE’s “Ykkösaamu” program that Russia is now providing military escort to tankers from its shadow fleet in the Gulf of Finland. He described this as a “completely new feature” of Russian activity in the region.

While Russian naval and air presence in the area has always been noticeable, Häkkänen emphasized that armed protection of shadow fleet tankers through the narrow maritime passage is unprecedented. According to Häkkänen, as cited by YLE,

“However, a new feature is that Russia is protecting tankers from its shadow fleet in the narrow passage of the Gulf of Finland. There is military escort and the presence of armed forces. This is a completely new development.”

Airspace breach confirmed near Finland’s Porvoo

The Finnish Defense Ministry reported on 23 May that two Russian military aircraft violated Finland’s airspace near the city of Porvoo. This breach adds to a recent series of aggressive incidents at sea and in the air.

According to YLE, MTV Uutiset also reported a rise in Russian military traffic in the Gulf of Finland, citing naval sources. This comes as further confirmation of escalating regional tensions.

Last week, an incident occurred involving a vessel linked to the Russian shadow fleet that failed to comply with directives from Estonian authorities. At the same time, a Russian fighter jet was observed in the vicinity.

Russia is also significantly increasing its military presence near Finland’s eastern frontier. Recent images aired on Swedish television from Kamyanka, Severomorsk, and Petrozavodsk show what appear to be large-scale deployments. 

Finland says situation remains stable

Despite the growing Russian military activity, Häkkänen stressed there is no immediate threat to Finland.

“I don’t see any direct threat to Finland. But Russia is strengthening its military capabilities and is an aggressive and dangerous neighbor to all of Europe, that’s clear,” he said.