Russia’s consumption of its pre-war Soviet-era tank stores “appears to be slowing,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as Moscow increasingly shifts to using motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Shift in equipment usage linked to depleted reserves

On 16 June, ISW cited a social media source that analyzes satellite imagery of Russian military depots. This source assessed that, as of a recent but unspecified date, Russia retained 46% of its pre-war tank reserves, 42% of its infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) reserves, and 48% of its armored personnel carrier (APC) reserves.

The data reflects only a modest decline from December 2024, when the same source assessed Russia had 47% of tanks, 52% of IFVs, and 45% of APCs still in storage. The adjusted figures stem from an update made on 15 June, when the source revised Russia’s original pre-war equipment estimates—adding 241 tanks, 174 IFVs, and 687 APCs—affecting percentage shifts accordingly.

The same source reported that most vehicle reserves have been withdrawn from eight key Russian depots. Based on this trend, the source concluded that Russia is likely to exhaust its remaining armored reserves by the end of 2025.

Surge in equipment activity near Finland

Satellite imagery also revealed what the source called a “dramatic” increase in nearly all types of military equipment deployed to a Russian base near Petrozavodsk, in the Republic of Karelia. This location lies approximately 373 kilometers from the Finnish border.

However, the source acknowledged that Russia may still hold additional vehicles in covered storage not visible via satellite surveillance, according to ISW.

The Wall Street Journal reported on 27 April that a senior Finnish military official claimed Russia is sending “almost none” of its newly manufactured tanks to Ukraine. 

Frontline use of motorcycles and buggies grows

ISW noted that the slowing consumption of tank reserves aligns with an observed increase in the use of motorcycles and buggies on the Ukrainian frontline. Since late fall 2024, Russian troops have employed these unarmored civilian vehicles more frequently, especially in contested “gray zones” shaped by Ukrainian and Russian drone activity.

Combat footage reviewed by ISW confirms this shift, with lighter and faster vehicles used to counter the vulnerability of traditional armored units to drone strikes. The think tank previously linked this trend to the heavy armored vehicle losses sustained by Russian forces in late 2023 and 2024.

Tactical gains come at high cost

While these adaptations have allowed Russian troops to make minor tactical advances, ISW emphasized they come at the expense of significant infantry losses. 

“ISW previously assessed that Russian armored vehicle losses are unsustainable and are undermining Russia’s ability to sustain a protracted high-intensity war, but it remains unclear if Russia’s increased reliance on motorcycles and buggies will be sufficient to offset these losses in the medium- to long-term,” the think tank wrote.

Finland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called in Russia’s chargé d’affaires for questioning following a suspected airspace violation on 10 June, marking the second such incident within a month.

Finnish authorities suspect a Russian military aircraft breached the country’s airspace on 10 June near the coastal city of Porvoo. The Border Guard has launched an investigation into the incident, according to Yle.

The diplomatic meeting is scheduled for 11 June, though ministry officials have not disclosed specific details about the proceedings.

This latest violation follows a similar incident that occurred at the end of May. Following that previous breach, Finland’s foreign ministry summoned Russian Ambassador to Finland Pavel Kuznetsov and formally delivered a diplomatic note addressing the matter.

Russia builds up forces along Finnish border

The airspace incidents come amid broader concerns about Russian military activities along Finland’s border. In May, Major General Sami Nurmi, head of the strategic department of Finland’s Defense Forces, indicated that the country anticipates further Russian military buildup along their shared border after the conclusion of the war in Ukraine.

Earlier, Western media outlets have published satellite imagery showing Russia’s expansion of military installations near the Finnish border. The images revealed new military housing facilities and enlarged storage areas for military equipment.

Finnish intelligence services assessed that Russia could strengthen its military presence along the Finnish border to what they describe as a “threatening level” within the next five years.

NATO intelligence sources also told a Finnish newspaper that Russia is actively maintaining and updating plans for a potential multi-front offensive against NATO’s eastern flank, targeting Finland, Norway, and the Baltic states, with intelligence indicating it could amass up to 600,000 troops along these borders despite its main forces being engaged in Ukraine.