The Return of Middle East Oil

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Ukrainian drones struck the Ryazan oil refinery in Russia on the morning of 6 September and set one of its core units on fire, Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi reported. The unit produces the high-octane component the Rosneft plant needs for its higher grades of gasoline. Russian regional authorities acknowledged a fire without naming the site. Ryazan is situated southeast of Moscow, about 470 km from Ukraine.
Drones hit the low-temperature isomerization unit for pentane-hexane fractions, designated Izomalk-2-LIN-800, according to Militarnyi's analysis. The unit sits on the refinery's grounds and is one of the critically important links in the plant's production cycle.
It converts low-octane straight-run oil fractions into a cleaner high-octane blending component. That component is what allows the refinery to produce gasolines of the higher environmental classes, Euro-5 among them, without adding harmful additives.

Ukrainian monitoring channel Exilenova+ published videos of the strike.
Ryzan Oil refinery pic.twitter.com/VcPfnSGgi4
— Exilenova+ (@Exilenova_plus) September 6, 2026
Drones already attacked this unit in December 2025 and damaged it. Earlier waves targeted the plant's ELOU-AVT-3, ELOU-AVT-6, and AVT-1 units.
By May 2026 the refinery had lost 90–100% of its refining capacity. Satellite imagery from 3 August 2026 showed Ukraine's Defense Forces had disabled two of the four crude distillation units on site.
Ukrainian drones struck the refinery in May, and FP-1 drones set it and a nearby warehouse burning in July.
Ryazan Oblast governor Pavel Malkov confirmed the region came under drone attack. Drone debris damaged residential buildings in Ryazan and Sapozhkovsky district, he stated, and a fire broke out at an enterprise he did not name. He said there were no casualties and that emergency services were working.
Russian news Telegram channel Astra said its analysis of photographs taken by residents established that the fire was on the grounds of the Ryazan refinery. Ukrainian channel Exilenova+, which tracks such attacks, also reported a hit on the plant.
Ryazan, locals report oil refinery is on fire after attack pic.twitter.com/0Dqhjo5FNI
— Exilenova+ (@Exilenova_plus) September 6, 2026
Ukraine's General Staff said strikes on 26 August and 1 September fully stopped two large refining enterprises: Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, and the Novatek-Ust-Luga complex in Leningrad Oblast. Both supply the Russian army.
Short of gasoline, Russia has been buying more fuel abroad. Moscow discussed importing gasoline from Kazakhstan in June, and a Kazakh refinery deal would cover 0.3% of Russian demand. Belarus increased its gasoline supplies to Russia nearly 20-fold in the first half of the year.


Kazakhstan’s privately owned Kondensat refinery will process Russian crude and return about 70% of the resulting petroleum products to Russia, Kazakh Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said on 25 August, Radio Liberty reported.
Based on figures reported by Radio Liberty, the roughly 70% of Kondensat’s maximum gasoline output bound for Russia would amount to about 0.3% of the country’s daily summer gasoline demand. That makes the arrangement a limited stopgap rather than a solution. John Roberts of the Atlantic Council nevertheless told the outlet that even small additional supplies could help during an acute shortage, including at the front: “It helps, but it doesn’t solve the problem.”
Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked dozens of Russian refineries offline in recent months, forcing Moscow to restrict fuel exports and reimpose rationing, Radio Liberty reported. Gasoline caps returned to Moscow and St. Petersburg in August, while Rosneft reportedly limited fills to 30 liters per car at every station nationwide.
Kondensat has processed Russian oil before. The refinery began handling supplies delivered through Tatneft’s TANECO refinery in 2024, when Kazakhstan and Russia agreed to permit exports of fuel produced from Russian feedstock back to Russia. The arrangement was renewed in 2025, according to Radio Liberty.
Central Asia has no spare refining capacity that could materially change Russia’s situation, Ukrainian energy analyst Hennadiy Riabtsev told Radio Liberty’s Schemes project. Possible contributions from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, India, China, and Belarus would remain a drop in the ocean for the Russian market, he said.
Prospective suppliers also understand that Russian fuel demand supports the war effort and that assisting Moscow could carry sanctions risks, Ukraine’s presidential sanctions commissioner, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, told Schemes. Kyiv therefore does not expect a queue of countries willing to supply Russia with petroleum products, he said.
Russia’s shortage has spread from gas station queues to farming and public transport, with fuel-sale restrictions officially covering more than 40 regions by July, Euromaidan Press reported, citing The Moscow Times. Moscow’s export restrictions have also raised prices and tightened supplies across Central Asia.
Yet Russia’s growing dependence gives Kazakhstan additional bargaining room. Ukrainian strikes have previously prompted Russian retailer Wildberries to expand its warehousing operations in Kazakhstan, while Astana has promoted domestic competitors.