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The EU set out to choke Russia’s energy exports — and handed Putin a €30 billion loophole
European households may unknowingly contribute to Russia’s war effort through their energy bills.
Here’s a striking figure: €30 billion. That’s how much more money the European Union plans to send Vladimir Putin for gas over the next three years — while children are buried under rubble from Russian missiles.
On 17 June, the European Commission finally presented its long-awaited legal proposal to phase out fossil fuel imports from Russia. After years of war, mounting evidence of Russian atrocities, and endless declarations that “Europe stands with Ukraine,” you might expect this regulation to immediately stop the flow of euros to Moscow’s war chest.
You would be wrong.
Instead, the Commission delivered a carefully crafted document that gives Gazprom, Novatek, and their European enablers a 2.5-year grace period to keep profiting from blood-stained methane. The math is obscene: over the first four months of 2025 alone, EU member states imported Russian gas worth more than €5 billion — a 17% increase from the same period in 2024.
Two-thirds of this comes from Russia’s Arctic Yamal project, where Novatek loads tankers bound for European ports while Russian forces target Ukrainian energy infrastructure with growing swarms of drones and ballistic missiles.
The €30 billion question: How did we get here?
Setting the legal framework for phasing out Russian gas is definitely a move in the right direction, but if it drags on too long, the original purpose gets lost. The Commission has included some forward-looking elements, particularly on tracing gas origins and avoiding Council unanimity, but serious problems remain.
However, the slow implementation of the import ban risks keeping the EU dependent on Russian energy for the next several years — a critical period in the standoff with the Kremlin. This threatens European security, moral credibility, and Ukraine’s survival.
Despite years of war, mounting evidence of Russian atrocities, and endless declarations that “Europe stands with Ukraine,” the current timelines set out in this draft law still give Gazprom, Novatek, and their enablers in Europe a 2.5-year grace period to keep profiting from blood-stained methane.
EU targets gas laundering — while keeping Russian imports
The regulation does include some hard-won victories. Thanks to relentless pressure from civil society and expert analysis by the Centre for the Study of Democracy (CSD) and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Article 7 introduces a crucial clause: all gas entering the EU from third countries — especially Türkiye — will be presumed Russian unless proven otherwise.
The same applies to the European LNG terminals — for all arriving LNG cargoes, the ports of initial loading should be reported.
This is a major win: it will disrupt schemes used by Gazprom to launder its gas through Turkish and European intermediaries, while Novatek will not be able to conceal the origin of its LNG through transshipments.
The Commission also cleverly avoids the trap of unanimous voting in the Council by framing the law as an internal market measure. That means Kremlin’s proxies in the EU, like Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico, can’t block it — another tactical success.
However, these gains are overshadowed by the Regulation’s biggest flaw: it gives Gazprom and Novatek more time and money — a lot of it .
The Kremlin’s countdown: billions still flowing
According to the draft text, the ban on spot purchases of Russian gas will not take effect until January 2026, which is absurd. These purchases are limited in volume and can be replaced overnight. There is no justification for allowing another half year of lucrative business with the aggressor. This spot market (dis)grace period is nothing but a gift to Russia.
Even worse, long-term contracts with Gazprom for pipeline gas supplies and with Novatek for maritime LNG deliveries can continue until the beginning of 2028. That’s nearly three more years of business-as-usual for European traders, while bombs keep falling on Kharkiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia, and the capital Kyiv is targeted with growing swarms of drones and ballistic missiles.
Over the first four months of 2025, EU member states imported Russian gas worth more than €5 billion, an increase of 17 percent over the same period in 2024. Liquefied natural gas from the Arctic Yamal project constitutes around two-thirds of this total.
According to the CSD estimate, up to 75% of current Russian gas imports to the EU are under such long-term contracts, meaning tens of billions of euros will continue flowing to Russia, effectively funding the war against Ukraine.
The message is chilling: Europe is in no rush to cut the Kremlin’s gas revenues — even when it knows exactly where the money goes.
Loopholes for oil imports are still wide open
The same cynical logic applies to Russian oil. Central European countries — like Hungary and Slovakia — will still be allowed to import Russian crude via the Druzhba pipeline, under vague “energy security” exemptions.
These opt-outs are unjustifiable. CREA and CSD have shown that Russian oil can be easily replaced via Adriatic Sea deliveries through Italy and Croatia. However, the Commission decided to play nice with the same governments that have spent the past two years undermining EU unity.
The enforcement trap: Who will check the documents?
Another gaping hole in the proposal is enforcement. The law asks national customs authorities to verify the origin of gas entering the EU market — although we know that some Member States cannot or will not do this properly. Without independent EU oversight by the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) or the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO), we risk another wave of document fraud and corruption.
As long as gas molecules can be swapped, renamed, or rerouted on paper, Russian gas will keep flowing into Europe through the back door.
The national plan charade: Price gap tax left off the table
There is a simple way to stop this: make Russian gas economically toxic. This can be achieved through a tax on the price gap between cheap Russian gas and prevailing EU hub prices. This would eliminate the arbitrage profits that European gas traders rely on and incentivize early contract termination with Gazprom and Novatek.However, the Commission ignored this idea. Instead of creating financial pressure, they give traders every reason to squeeze out a few more years of private profit while Ukrainians die.
The proposal also introduces so-called national Russian energy phaseout plans, allowing each Member State to define its own path and pace for cutting Russian imports. This is a gift to professional obstructionists. Countries like Hungary, Austria, and Bulgaria will use these plans as legal cover to delay, dilute, and derail the EU’s decoupling from Russian fossil fuels.
We’ve seen this tactic before. The Commission proposes ambitious targets, and certain Member States hide behind “technical constraints” and “supply security concerns” for years. This time, the cost of delay is measured in lives lost on the battlefield and drone-ravaged cities in Ukraine.
Europe must decide: will it fund tyranny or freedom?
The Commission’s proposal is a start, but it is not a credible strategy for ending Europe’s role in financing Russian war crimes. In its current form, it is a legal fig leaf for continuing business with the Kremlin’s economic arms, Gazprom and Novatek, under the illusion of decoupling.To fix this, we urgently call on the European Parliament and forward-thinking Member States to:
- Ban Russian spot market gas imports immediately, not in 2026.
- Introduce a Russian gas price-gap tax to kill its profitability.
- End long-term contracts by 2026, not 2028.
- Mandate EU-level enforcement with real inspection powers.
- Scrap national decoupling plans unless they include strict timelines and penalties for non-compliance.
The EU must stop pretending it can support Ukraine while funding Putin’s war machine. There can be no green transition, no true energy security, and no peace in Europe as long as Russian gas flows to the EU and euros flow to the Kremlin.
Let’s not REpower Russia — let’s shut it down.
Oleh Savytskyi
Editor’s note. The opinions expressed in our Opinion section belong to their authors. Euromaidan Press’ editorial team may or may not share them.
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