Politico: Trump’s September Ukraine ultimatum gives Putin green light to attack
President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Vladimir Putin over Ukraine has been interpreted by Moscow as permission to intensify military operations through the summer, Politico reported on 22 July, citing Russian analysts.
Trump delivered his demands during an Oval Office press conference last week, largely leaving NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte to outline the new American policy. The president stipulated that Putin must agree to a ceasefire by September or face additional economic penalties, including tariffs on countries trading with Western-sanctioned Russia.
The US will also sell Patriot air defense systems to Europe for transfer to Ukraine and provide additional weapons, though specific numbers and types remain undisclosed.
Russian markets responded positively to the announcement, with stocks rising 2.7 percent in the hours following Trump’s statement. The ruble also reversed some losses against the dollar.
“The ultimatum was essentially interpreted by Moscow as carte blanche to intensify its offensive in Ukraine,” Russian political scientist Tatiana Stanovaya said, according to Politico.
Russian military analyst Yury Fedorov said the Kremlin had feared “immediate imposition” of secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers and immediate deliveries of long-range missiles. Instead, Moscow now believes “Trump is not prepared and does not want to engage in a major confrontation with Russia,” according to Fedorov.
Trump’s former Russia czar Fiona Hill warned in a recent interview that the president is “deferential towards Putin because he really is worried about the risk of a nuclear exchange.” Hill added that Trump “thinks it’s just about real estate, about trade and who gets what, be it minerals, land or rare earths.”
“Putin doesn’t want a ceasefire. [He] wants a neutered Ukraine, not one that is able to withstand military pressure. Everybody sees this, apart from Trump,” Hill said.
Putin has maintained his preconditions for ending the war. At the recent St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, he reiterated demands for international recognition of territories he claims are Russian and Ukraine’s adoption of neutral, non-aligned status.
Ella Paneyakh, a sociologist at the New Eurasian Strategies Center, argues Putin needs to prolong the war because an abrupt halt would trigger “cruel and vicious competition for diminishing resources at every level of society.”
“Returning veterans — especially socially-connected contract soldiers — are likely to demand privileges and disrupt local balances of power, challenging both elites and institutions,” Paneyakh said. She warned that conflicts would “inevitably take place with those they perceive as ‘cowards’ who did not go to fight.”