Russian forces have widened their foothold at Hraniv on the border north of Kharkiv, a Ukrainian military spokesman said. Viktor Trehubov of the Joint Forces Grouping said they spread sideways rather than deeper toward the nearby town of Kozacha Lopan.

Russia's main offensive grinds on in Donetsk Oblast, but it keeps pressing along the northern border too. Brigadier General Denys Prokopenko warned in September that Russia wants buffer zones in Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts, a push meant to keep Ukrainian reserves there instead of in the east. Such pushes gain little: in Sumy Oblast, the Russian advance reached about 3–4 km deep, more than 35 km short of the city.

The wedge grew at its flanks

Trehubov described the Hraniv gain as a separate wedge toward Kozacha Lopan, right by the border. "But they managed to widen it," he said on Suspilne Studio on 31 October. He said Russian troops did not deepen the wedge or move further into Kozacha Lopan, and called the widening "a certain problem."

The Ukrainian volunteer monitoring project DeepState marked a Russian advance near Hraniv on 30 October. On its map, the Russian-held area around the village grew from about 2 to 11 square kilometers, according to EP's calculation based on DeepState's data. The gray zone around it, where control is unclear, more than doubled to some 19 square kilometers. The new ground runs southeast of Hraniv along the border, in line with Trehubov's account of a wider, not deeper, wedge.

The wedge dates back to late June, when a spokesman for Ukraine's 14th Army Corps, Colonel Vitalii Sarantsev, said Russian troops had crossed the border near Hraniv and were trying to storm Kozacha Lopan. He said Russia was trying to open new wedges along the Sumy and Kharkiv borders to tie down Ukrainian forces and widen a so-called controlled zone. On 1 July, the 425th Skelia Assault Regiment said it had pushed Russian troops out of Kozacha Lopan, 2 km from the border, and cleared Hraniv. Ukraine's General Staff reported 13 Russian attacks northeast of Kharkiv over the past day, none of them listed near Hraniv.

The northern pushes have been on Ukraine's radar for months. Buffer zones in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv oblasts remain on Russia's list, Pavlo Palisa, deputy head of the Presidential Office, said in April, though he saw no Russian forces to carry them out. Military analyst Yevhen Dykyi described the aim as a zone of constant tension along the border, like the one in parts of Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts, which forces Ukraine to spread its forces more thinly.

Other movements along the front

In Donetsk Oblast, DeepState mapped a Russian advance near Mykolaivka, just west of Chasiv Yar, on 31 October, turning a patch of its gray zone there red. Just after midnight on 29 October, it marked Russian gains near Maiske, northwest of Chasiv Yar.

Ukrainian forces advanced northeast of Borova in Kharkiv Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 31 October, citing geolocated footage. DeepState has not mapped that change. Russian milbloggers claimed gains in and around Kupiansk, but ISW could not confirm them.

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Russia tries to drag a village north of Kupiansk into no-man’s-land after its losses in Ukraine’s underground operation

Near Kupiansk, Trehubov said Ukrainian troops cleared a gas pipeline under the Oskil River that Russian infiltration groups had used to reach the city.

Losses force a Russian rotation near Huliaipole

Near Huliaipole, Ukrainian forces killed and wounded about 900 Russian troops last week, the 7th Corps of Ukraine's Air Assault Forces said. That is almost 150 more than the week before and the highest count in two months, the corps added. It said that, according to available information, Russia's 5th Combined Arms Army is replacing its 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade with the 60th while the 57th refills its ranks.

The corps also said Russia sends recruited mercenaries from Africa and Asia into assaults there. Ukrainian troops captured a citizen of Indonesia fighting in Russia's 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade, it added.

Since 21 October, DeepState's updates have added about 40 square kilometers to the Russian-held area on its map, by EP's count. Besides Hraniv and Chasiv Yar, it mapped Russian advances near Dobropillia, east of Sloviansk, near Kostiantynivka, and near Huliaipole and Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Still, Ukraine has liberated more land than Russia captured since the start of fall, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in October.

Russia attacked Kyiv with ballistic missiles late on 29 October, killing a man and injuring a 35-year-old woman, Kyiv city prosecutors said. The strikes damaged eight apartment blocks in Dniprovskyi district, a gas station, a restaurant, a dental clinic, warehouses, and cars. A warehouse building caught fire in Darnytskyi district, the city administration reported.

Overnight, Russia fired Iskander-M, S-400, and KN-23 ballistic missiles, four Kh-59/69 guided missiles, and 113 drones, 83 of them jet-powered, Ukraine's Air Force said. The attack mainly targeted Kyiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Air defenses downed three missiles and 96 drones, but strikes hit 17 locations.

Russia is waging its war on Ukraine's cities around the clock as winter approaches, striking homes, transport, and the power grid that keeps them running. On 29 October, including the late attack on Kyiv, Russian strikes killed at least 27 civilians and injured more than 140 across six regions, by EP's tally of regional authorities' reports. It was one of the deadliest days of the autumn. Most died in daylight, on a train platform in Dnipro, in an apartment block in Kremenchuk, in central Chernihiv, and under guided bombs in Izium.

Dnipro and Kyiv's right bank lose power

A Russian strike on Dnipro left more than 350,000 customers in the city and nearby towns without power, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast's administration said shortly after midnight. Water pumping stations switched to backup power. By morning, engineers had restored electricity to most customers in the oblast, but more than 200,000 were still without power.

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It was the only transport serving a village where more than 1,600 people still live: Russian forces strike a social bus with a drone in Bilenke, killing a woman and injuring other passengers

In Kyiv, equipment damaged in earlier strikes failed on the right bank, forcing emergency outages, the city administration said. Russia attacked an industrial plant in Poltava Oblast's Kremenchuk district overnight and again in the morning, with no casualties reported, the regional administration said.

In the morning, a Russian drone hit a shopping center in Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district, injuring four women, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov said. In Chernihiv Oblast, Russian drones destroyed the house of culture in Mena late on 29 October, and in the morning a drone hit a house in Bobrovytsia and injured a woman, the regional administration said. In Chernihiv itself, 37 people sought medical help after the 29 October strike on the city center that killed two 15-year-old girls, Yana and Mariia.

Two oblasts in mourning as the Dnipro toll rises to 15

A 40-year-old man wounded in the 29 October jet drone strike on Dnipro's railway station died in hospital, raising the toll to 15, the regional administration said. Eleven people remain in hospital. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast declared 30 October a day of mourning.

Poltava Oblast also mourns three people killed when a Russian drone hit an apartment block in Kremenchuk on 29 October. Another 32 were injured, six of them children, the regional administration said.

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Russian jet drone hits Dnipro railway platform, killing 14 people next to a Zaporizhzhia-bound train

In Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, Russian guided bombs hit a five-story building on 29 October, killing four people and injuring 14, police reported. In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian attacks killed two people in Bilenke and injured 23 across the region, 13 of them when Russia sent seven FPV drones at vehicles and public transport in Zaporizhzhia city, police said. EP reported the city faced a record number of such attacks.

A Russian jet-powered drone set homes on fire in Kharkiv’s Osnovianskyi district during the night, Ukraine’s State Emergency Service (SES) reported. A small child was among the people hurt. Around 13:00 on 28 October, another Russian drone hit the same district, starting a fire, killing one person and injuring two, Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov said.

Of the 88 Shahed-type drones Russia launched from 18:00 on 27 October, 38 were jet-powered, the Air Force reported. By its preliminary count at 08:00, defenses had downed or jammed 31 of those 38. Several drones were still in the air. Russia also fired an Iskander-M or S-400 ballistic missile from Taganrog. Even so, Russian weapons hit eight locations, and debris fell on two more.

One strike, a casualty count that shifted

Kharkiv Oblast head Oleh Syniehubov reported a drone strike on the district at 22:42 on 27 October. At 23:12, he clarified that a child hurt in the strike had acute stress reaction. At 23:39, he listed four people hurt: women aged 32 and 65, a 56-year-old man, and a 4-year-old boy. Three went to hospital. Eight minutes later, he added that a 65-year-old woman had acute stress reaction. His morning summary of the day’s strikes lists two 65-year-old women in Kharkiv, one wounded and one with acute stress.

The SES put the number of people hurt at five, including the child. Rescuers said a jet-powered drone struck the area, starting a 2,500 m² fire.

Kharkiv’s last two days

The Osnovianskyi fire was part of a run of Russian strikes on Kharkiv and the area around it. On the evening of 26 October, Russian multiple rocket launchers hit the city’s Novobavarskyi district, killing two people and hurting four. That night, jet drones struck three places in Kharkiv district, which surrounds the city. One hit, in the settlement of Vilshany, left people hurt. The SES counted three injured that night.

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Russia strikes publishing house warehouse in Kharkiv on Ukrainian Language Day, adding to a campaign against Ukrainian literature and culture

During the day on 27 October, another Russian jet drone hit a warehouse in the city’s Slobidskyi district. Preliminary reports showed no casualties. Drones also hit the Shevchenkivskyi district that afternoon, wounding one person, Terekhov said. Another hit damaged an administrative building in the Kholodnohirskyi district, he added. Hours later came the strike on Osnovianskyi. Across Kharkiv Oblast, 14 people were hurt over the past day, including a child, Syniehubov’s morning summary shows. In Osnovianskyi, rescuers were again working under the threat of repeat strikes.

Russian forces struck a warehouse belonging to Ukrainian publishing house KSD in Kharkiv on 27 October, disrupting the publisher’s planned November releases. No employees were injured, but the company is still assessing the damage and losses.

The attack came on the Day of Ukrainian Writing and Language, a national holiday celebrating Ukraine’s language and literary heritage. It adds to a series of Russian strikes on Ukrainian publishing houses, printing facilities, and book warehouses that have destroyed millions of books and disrupted the country’s publishing industry.

KSD announced the strike on social media, saying it had planned to greet readers on the holiday and reveal its November releases but instead had to deal with the attack. The publisher said strikes in the area were continuing, preventing it from determining the full extent of the damage.

The company had planned to begin releasing its new books on 5 November. It has now postponed the announcements while it assesses the situation and determines how to proceed.

“We really want to show you the new releases we had prepared for November,” KSD said. “But for now, as we clarify the details, we cannot yet assess the scale of the destruction and understand how we will work going forward.”

The publisher said it would share updates as more information became available.

Russia’s attacks devastate Ukraine’s book industry

KSD’s warehouse is the latest publishing facility affected by Russia’s campaign against Ukraine’s book industry. In July and August alone, Russian attacks destroyed around 13 million books, nearly a third of the number Ukrainian publishers printed in all of 2025, according to the Ukrainian publishing industry.

On 1 August, a Russian strike on a warehouse used by the Ranok publishing group in Kharkiv destroyed around 8 million books, including hundreds of thousands of school textbooks. A separate attack on a printing facility in July destroyed print runs and book materials belonging to numerous Ukrainian publishers.

In October, Russian strikes also damaged a Kyiv warehouse belonging to publisher Knyholav, destroying tens of thousands of books, including titles and reprints that had replaced stock lost in an earlier attack.

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Russia has burned millions of Ukrainian books, striking at the infrastructure of Ukrainian culture

These strikes threaten more than publishers’ finances. Destroyed print runs and damaged warehouses delay new releases, deprive readers of Ukrainian-language books, and force publishers to spend scarce resources replacing titles instead of developing new ones.

KSD has not yet disclosed its losses or announced a revised release schedule for its November books.

US President Donald Trump called Ukraine’s renewed strikes on Russian oil refineries a disgrace in an interview with Newsmax and questioned President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s will to settle the war on 15 October. His statements came after he made a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to allow Russian diesel back into the US ahead of the mid-term elections in the US.

Kyiv says its long-range strikes have knocked out more than half of Russia's refining capacity, one of the few levers it controls on Moscow's war income, according to Ukraine's Defense Ministry. This is part of efforts to reduce the aggressor's capabilities to launch assaults, including the latest, during which four Russian regions fired 39 Iskander-M, North Korean KN-23, hypersonic Zircon, and supersonic anti-ship cruise Oniks missiles, Zelenskyy said.

Trump criticizes Zelenskyy over oil prices while remaining silent on Russian strikes

Earlier, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine stopped refinery strikes for three days to meet US wishes after Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” on 11 October. At the same time, Russia struck a Kharkiv heat-and-power plant within hours of the announcement, he emphasized.

Meanwhile, in the interview with Newsmax, Trump said Zelenskyy is only pushing world oil prices higher.

“Well, I think that’s a disgrace,” he said.

He added that Ukraine has other options: “There are a lot of targets that you can hit.”

At the same time, Trump didn't say a word about Russian strikes on Ukraine's civilian buildings and power infrastructure ahead of the winter.

Trump compares Zelenskyy to a circus showman

The US leader said he is “not a big fan” of Zelenskyy. He claimed both sides “would like to see it end,” but that he finds Zelenskyy “more difficult to deal with than Putin.”

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He also said that he believes the depletion of US ammunition stockpiles is linked to the aid provided to Ukraine under the Biden administration, rather than the war with Iran.

Ukraine has repeatedly offered to help the US counter Iranian drones during the operation. The New York Times reported that a Ukrainian team departed the day after the US made such a request.

Nevertheless, despite Kyiv’s offers and actions, Trump once again compared Zelenskyy to P. T. Barnum, the 19th-century American circus showman, saying that he received a tremendous number of Patriots and Tomahawks.

However, there is no public confirmation that Tomahawk missiles were transferred to Ukraine during the Biden administration.

Ukraine is drafting crisis scenarios for November to March as Russian strikes target the country’s biggest cities, Head of the Presidential Office Kyrylo Budanov said on 13 October after chairing a meeting with donor-country diplomats and humanitarian organizations. His deputy Iryna Vereshchuk warned the same day that this winter may bring a new type of humanitarian crisis. She asked donors to be ready with fast extra funding.

Russia has struck Ukraine’s grid deep into winter before: last February, it launched more than 500 missiles and drones as temperatures fell below −20°C. Strikes have continued despite a US-announced energy truce Moscow has not confirmed. Kyiv now wants donors ready to pay for the humanitarian fallout in advance.

Crisis scenarios for November to March

The core task is clear crisis scenarios and synchronized response plans for that period, Budanov wrote. The government is building a baseline threat scenario through the State Emergency Service, while the military and intelligence will provide a risk assessment.

“The available resource must be concentrated where people will have the hardest time,” Budanov wrote.

Ukraine, he added, must hold its rear as reliably as the Defense Forces hold the front line.

What officials mean by a new type of crisis

A war of rear areas is underway, Vereshchuk wrote. Russia is changing tactics in an attempt to deepen the humanitarian crisis, especially in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Dnipro, she added.

Vereshchuk did not define what makes the crisis new, but she tied her warning to the big cities.

“This winter, it is the big cities that may become the testing ground of our national resilience,” she wrote.

Humanitarian organizations must adapt their plans to protect and support civilians, Vereshchuk wrote. Donors, she said, must be ready to provide additional crisis-response funding quickly.

The capital lags behind

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on 13 October that even border and frontline oblasts were ahead of Kyiv on resilience plans as of mid-October. Even single hits by Shahed attack drones can cut power and water across much of the capital, he noted. He also began consultations on urgent security and management steps to fix the situation in the city.

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Three days after Washington announced an energy ceasefire, Russia fires 39 ballistic missiles at Ukraine’s grid

Russia carried out more than 200 strikes on Ukraine’s power generation and transmission in the week to 11 October, Zelenskyy said. Overnight on 14 October, Russia fired 39 ballistic missiles and more than 120 drones at energy and critical infrastructure. The barrage left at least 600,000 people without power, Zelenskyy said.

Ukraine has loosened its reliance on Washington but still depends on the United States in three military areas that let US President Donald Trump keep pressuring Kyiv, The Telegraph wrote on 12 October. That pressure now centers on the energy ceasefire Trump declared on 11 October, with US officials reportedly warning Kyiv not to hit Russian energy during the truce. Kyiv backs a mutual truce, but Moscow has not confirmed it, and Russian strikes on Ukraine’s grid have continued.

The paper named three such ties: satellite intelligence, Patriot interceptors, and American weapons bought with European money. A pause in any of them would hit just as Russia’s winter campaign begins. Ukraine says an intercepted document reportedly lays out up to 1,000 Russian missiles, drones, and bombs for 60 critical sites this winter, so any pause in US intelligence, interceptors, or PURL deliveries would land as that campaign gets under way.

Satellite intelligence: the US still holds the key

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and other US services still pass precise satellite data that help Ukrainian forces hit targets inside Russia, by the paper’s estimate. Trump briefly suspended that flow in March 2025 to pressure Zelenskyy. A Ukrainian official told Axios that Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner threatened during 9 October talks in Miami to cut off US intelligence.

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Patriot interceptors: no quick substitute

The Telegraph called interceptor missiles the second and probably sharpest dependency. Only American Patriot systems can down Russia’s most powerful missiles, which strike Ukrainian cities daily, the paper wrote. Kyiv’s PAC-3 stocks ran dry mainly because US reserves were diverted to the Middle East after America’s war against Iran, the paper added. Kyiv had warned in March that a long Middle East war would squeeze its PAC-3 supply.

Five European defense firms—Destinus, MBDA Deutschland, Safran, Airbus, and Thales—signed a letter of intent in July to develop a joint interceptor, but a testable prototype is not expected before next year, the paper wrote. Ukraine is also building its own interceptor with European allies under the FREYJA program.

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The night Trump announced a diesel deal with Putin, drones knocked out more than half the tanks at a Russian fuel-export terminal

US arms bought with European money

The third is buying American arms with European money through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), a NATO-run purchasing scheme. US officials have reportedly warned Europe that Trump may halt those supplies if Ukraine keeps striking Russian oil refineries.

US President Donald Trump’s envoys told Kyiv that letting Russia sell diesel could draw Moscow back to peace talks, Reuters reported. In the same meeting, they said Russia’s leader was not ready to negotiate. Since then, Moscow has offered nothing in return, and Trump has brushed off claims that Russia helps Iran.

Washington is pressing Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries and offering Moscow economic incentives to return to peace talks, even though Russia has made no commitment in return. Yesterday, Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv before air raid sirens sounded, amid disputed warnings that the US could cut intelligence support. Meanwhile, Ukraine is being asked to halt its long-range campaign against the oil infrastructure that fuels and finances Russia's war.

The pitch: a diesel deal as a signal to Moscow

Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner met the Ukrainian delegation in Miami on 9 October. They described Russian President Vladimir Putin as unprepared to negotiate but said the diesel deal could help restart three-way talks, two of the sources said.

The third source said the deal could “soften” Moscow because it “sends a signal that Trump is open to do things” with Russia. One of the sources described the plan:

“The idea was that the US could go back to Russia and say ‘See, the Ukrainians stopped striking and we gave you this deal. Now it’s your turn to do something.’”

Ukraine’s part was to stop hitting Russian refineries. Kushner repeated Trump’s request at the meeting, noting the administration had made it several times, two sources said.

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Kyiv was asked to hold its fire on Russian oil

The Ukrainians agreed to nothing formally, Reuters’ sources said. They signaled they would accept an energy ceasefire if Russia did the same, but saw the US approach as an attempt to appease Russia with business deals.

Two days later, Trump declared an energy ceasefire, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine was ready if Russia reciprocated. Euromaidan Press has monitored official and unofficial Ukrainian and Russian sources and found no reports of new Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries after Trump’s announcement. One of the last, on the night of the diesel announcement, knocked out more than half the tanks at a fuel-export terminal in Rostov-on-Don.

Three sources told Reuters the envoys did not threaten to cut US support over the refinery strikes. A Ukrainian official told Axios, however, that the envoys warned Trump could cut Ukraine off from US intelligence, which a US official denied. US officials are also believed to have told European allies that Trump would halt PURL, the NATO scheme for Europe-funded US weapons for Ukraine, unless the strikes stopped, according to FT.

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What Moscow has offered in return

A person close to the Kremlin told Reuters that Putin would return to the table only when he gets “the remaining 11% of Donbas.” Ukraine refuses to cede more land. During the 9 October call that produced the deal, Putin declined to commit to resuming talks, his aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters, Axios reported.

Moscow has not confirmed the energy ceasefire either. Trump insisted on 12 October that the sides had agreed “because I said they agreed,” RFE/RL reported. On the evening of 12 October, Russian munitions collapsed an apartment stairwell in Kharkiv, killing four people. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak, meanwhile, claimed diesel exports could reach 3.0–3.5 million tons a month by year-end, above the volumes Trump announced.

“Too much to lose”: Trump on Russia and Iran

Late on 12 October, Trump wrote on Truth Social that he did not believe Russia and China were helping Iran, since they have “too much to lose.” In March, he told Fox News that Putin “might be helping them a little bit.” Asked about Russia’s possible support for Iran, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on 2 September that his message to everyone was to “stay away.” That month, a Financial Times investigation found Russia secretly helping Iran develop supersonic cruise missiles that could threaten US warships.

Russian munitions brought down a stairwell of an apartment building in Kharkiv on the evening of 12 October, and rescuers recovered three bodies from the rubble overnight, local authorities reported. Survivors described fire, falling glass, and pets left behind. The strike came days after Washington waived sanctions on Russian diesel, as it expects Kyiv to stop hitting Russian refineries.

Russia hits Ukraine’s cities every day as it readies a winter campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure, and its oil exports keep bringing in the money that pays for the drones and missiles. A halt to Ukraine’s refinery strikes with no matching halt to Russia’s strikes would leave Moscow’s fuel income intact while Kharkiv digs through rubble. Estonia’s prime minister has already urged Europe to help Ukraine destroy those refineries instead.

A stairwell gone in Kholodnohirskyi district

Russian munitions hit Kharkiv’s Kholodnohirskyi district repeatedly from around 21:17, and Mayor Ihor Terekhov preliminarily identified them as Banderols. At 22:21, he said one strike had hit a residential building, possibly trapping people. He then added in a follow-up post: “Very serious destruction—an entire stairwell has collapsed.”

The strike destroyed an entrance of the four-story building, the State Emergency Service (DSNS) said. It counted 11 injured across the city’s evening strikes, and a rescuer was hospitalized, while Terekhov put the number at 10. By 06:56 on 13 October, rescuers had found a third body. Oblast head Oleh Syniehubov confirmed three dead and said the search continued. Experts will check whether the building is still fit to live in, he added.

Over 24 hours, Russian attacks killed three people in Kharkiv and injured 37, including two children treated for acute stress, Syniehubov reported.

“I realize I’m on fire”: two residents recall the strike

Larysa Maksimenko had just put her bedridden husband to sleep when the strike hit, she told Suspilne Kharkiv. She suffered a head wound and burns.

“I went to the kitchen to switch on the kettle for myself, to have some coffee. I realize I’m on fire. Then glass fell on me. I came to, and I’m buried under everything. All covered in blood,” she said.

The window bars were broken, and medics carried her husband out through the window. Rescuers later found a woman under the rubble in her apartment, likely a neighbor, Maksimenko said. All she wants now, she said, is to get to her husband in hospital.

Viacheslav Chibitko, who lives on the second floor next to the collapsed entrance, saw a flash, and then everything blew out. He got his three dogs out, but five cats are still inside. During the clearing, a concrete slab fell on a rescuer, Suspilne’s correspondent reported. Crews pulled him out and handed him to medics.

Kyiv’s toll rises, and strikes hit other cities overnight

The evening drone strike on a 25-story building in Kyiv’s Darnytskyi district killed two people, Kyiv prosecutors reported. The second victim was found dead in a car near the building. Prosecutors counted at least seven injured, including a 17-year-old girl, while Mayor Vitali Klitschko counted 11 in the capital.

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From 18:00 on 12 October, Russia launched five ballistic missiles, nine loitering munitions, and 108 attack drones, Ukraine’s Air Force reported. Air defenses downed or suppressed 88 drones. A Russian drone attack injured four patients at a medical facility in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, oblast head Serhii Tiurin said. In Dnipro, a Russian attack injured a 64-year-old man, oblast head Oleksandr Hanzha reported. A downed Russian drone set two houses on fire in Murovane near Lviv, oblast head Maksym Kozytskyi said.

On 12 October, a Russian Smerch rocket with a cluster warhead hit a house in Cherkaske, Donetsk Oblast, killing three people, including a 13-year-old girl, oblast head Vadym Filashkin reported.

Russian attacks killed more than 150 people in the week to 11 October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Russian bombs killed at least 20 people in Zaporizhzhia on 10 October, by the oblast’s count. On 9 October, the US waived its sanctions on Russian diesel until April 2027. The White House expects Kyiv to halt refinery strikes under its proposed energy ceasefire.

Russia suffered vastly more casualties than Ukraine in September, a senior NATO military official told Bloomberg. Ukraine’s General Staff put the month’s Russian toll only slightly lower.

September’s toll lands on a recruitment system that was already falling short. Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) estimated that Russian losses outran new contracts in June and July, when monthly losses ran lower. In August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, citing military intelligence, warned that Russia is preparing a mass call-up after its parliamentary elections. That vote ended on 20 September.

Where the numbers come from

Russian casualties passed 50,000 in September, up to 28,000 of them killed, the official said. Ukraine’s losses over the same month came to about 5,000, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Russia does not release casualty figures, Bloomberg noted. In late August, Pavlo Palisa, deputy head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, put Russia’s July losses at 43,000 killed and wounded. Bloomberg could not confirm his figures.

To push forward, Russia keeps feeding troops into “kill zones,” the official said. These are stretches of ground saturated with armed drones, mines, and artillery fire. Maksym, call sign Rumyn, is a deputy company commander in the 46th Airmobile Brigade’s drone battalion. In April, he said the zone once ran 3–5 km deep and is now several times larger.

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Rising stakes for Moscow

Russia’s defense spending is expected to near $199 billion this year, Bloomberg reported, citing two sources close to the government. That is about 40% above the plan the government set in late 2025.

Russian President Vladimir Putin would struggle to wind down the invasion without a political cost, Martin Jäger said last week. He heads Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND).

Russia hit the CHP-5 thermal plant in Kharkiv on the evening of 11 October. It came hours after US President Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address.

Trump had announced the energy truce earlier that day, though Kyiv reported no part in any such deal, as well as Moscow. Yet in this one week, Russia carried out more than 200 strikes on Ukraine’s power generation and transmission and 17 on its gas and oil sites, killing more than 150 people and wounding more than 700, according to Zelenskyy.

“All day today, there were Russian Shaheds in the sky. There are Shaheds in the sky now, too. There were strikes by aerial bombs. There were strikes on our energy. Just now there was a strike on CHP-5 in Kharkiv,” Zelenskyy states.

Ukraine welcomes the agreement Trump announced and is ready to stop striking Russian energy if Russia does the same. For that to mean anything, he stresses, it has to become part of reality.

A one-word answer from Moscow

Ukraine has offered many de-escalation steps, Zelenskyy notes, but Russian ruler Vladimir Putin met them all with the same refusal. He voices hope that the Russian leader would finally tell the US, Ukraine, and the world something other than killing and deception, something that leads to a real and dignified peace.

Ukraine wants peace, and the question is whether Russia does. The Armed Forces have received all the relevant orders to defend the country, he confirms.

Allies line up fresh support

Zelenskyy says he also spoke with members of the US Congress and, the day before with the UK prime minister, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Norway’s prime minister, all of whom offered help.

Ukraine is also working with the EU on financing for its defense and budget stability, and preparing new steps on European integration.