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The global economy is muddling through against the odds. But a storm is coming | Larry Elliott

Finance ministers gathering for the IMF annual meeting know the need for multilateral cooperation to deal with many crises. There is little chance of that

Not much has gone right for the global economy this year, and plenty has gone wrong. Two big regional wars are destabilising prices and supply chains everywhere. Businesses and consumers are feeling the effects of a serious energy shock. Rising inflation has made it a lot more expensive for governments to finance their debts. China and the US are at loggerheads over trade.

Yet, so far, the impact has been modest. It is something of a miracle that the finance ministers and central bank governors gathered for this year’s annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Bangkok are not having to deal with a full-blown crisis. This is not like the autumn of 2008, when the meetings took place during the worst of the global banking meltdown.

Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist

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© Illustration: Sébastien Thibault/The Guardian

© Illustration: Sébastien Thibault/The Guardian

© Illustration: Sébastien Thibault/The Guardian

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North Korea and China Open Their Biggest Border Bridge

The long-delayed opening of the New Yalu River Bridge comes as the two countries expand trade despite international sanctions imposed on North Korea.

© Iori Sagisawa/Kyodo News, via Associated Press

The New Yalu River Bridge seen from Dandong, China, on Thursday, the day it opened.
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China’s Exports Soar, Putting Its Trade Surplus on Track for a Record

China’s exports grew last month at the fastest pace in almost any month since the end of the global financial crisis.

© Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times

A weak currency has helped make Chinese goods more competitive overseas while raising the cost of imported products at home.
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Graduate student accused of poisoning colleague and trying to flee to China arrested at LAX

Microbiologist Aili Wang, 32, poisoned tea of colleague in Wyoming who had pending patents, prosecutors allege

A Wyoming microbiology graduate student from China has been arrested on accusations she poisoned the tea of a colleague who had pending patents and with whom she did not get along, then tried to flee the country after police questioned her.

Aili Wang, 32, was arrested 6 October at Los Angeles international airport, where prosecutors allege she sought to return to China. With her were laptops, electronic storage devices and documents now in the possession of police, who allege Wang was seen on surveillance video rummaging through the desk of the victim who specialized in technology for disease treatment – research similar to work she had done in China.

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© Photograph: Mark Gomelsky/AP

© Photograph: Mark Gomelsky/AP

© Photograph: Mark Gomelsky/AP

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A Reporter Returns to China to Find it Richer, but Also Highly Paranoid.

Returning to China after decades away, a correspondent finds bullet trains, dazzling skylines — and a surveillance state more paranoid and pervasive than ever.

Andrew Higgins riding a car past Tiananmen Square in January. He was at the square in June 1989 when the military assaulted people who were protesting corruption, inequality and inflation.
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Ukraine uses up Europe’s yearly supply of thermal sensors in about five months, so two Ukrainian firms will build their own plants in the West

ukraine uses up europe’s yearly supply thermal sensors about five months so two ukrainian firms build own plants west · post imaging camera made company odd systems mounted drone manufactured

Two Ukrainian defense-tech firms, The Fourth Law and Odd Systems, have joined forces to mass-produce thermal imaging sensors in Europe and the US, The Fourth Law told Militarnyi. The goal is to wean Western militaries off foreign suppliers, chiefly China, for the core part of every thermal camera.

Amid Russia's daily attacks, Ukrainian drone makers have been shifting production to allied countries. Linza and Zoom drones are now built in Germany, and another top manufacturer has taken its technology to Canada and Finland. Sensor plants would move a core component west, not just finished drones.

A Western answer to Chinese sensors

The project, called Project Foundation, will build long-wave infrared sensors, known as microbolometers. These chips register heat, so a camera can pick out a person or vehicle at night or through smoke. The aim, The Fourth Law said, is to "ensure the sovereignty of Western countries in the field of thermal imaging technology."

Plants in Europe and the US from 2027

The project will run two sites, First Foundation in Europe and Second Foundation in the US, from a headquarters in Eindhoven, a Dutch semiconductor hub. Mass production is due to start in 2027. Within three years, the partners want to quadruple Europe's output of these sensors and double America's.

Why Europe's supply isn't enough

Ukraine's front line burns through sensors faster than Europe can make them. "Europe currently produces less than 500,000 such sensors per year, while Ukraine consumes this amount in about five months," Odd Systems co-founder Yaroslav Azhniuk said in February, when he first announced plans for a plant able to make one million sensors a year. European sensors cost about five times as much as Chinese ones and are hard to buy at all, because Europeans need them too, he added.

Factories working for Ukraine abroad have already become sabotage targets. In March, an arson attack in Pardubice, Czechia, destroyed nearly all the production capacity of a plant making drones and thermal sights for Ukraine's army. Czech investigators are looking into a possible Russian trail behind the attack.

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Russia’s Silence on Possible Plague Outbreak Stokes Fears of a Cover-Up

As rumors spread about a possible plague outbreak in Siberia, the Kremlin turned to a familiar playbook: offering little information about potential bad news.

© Associated Press

The Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia and the Far East in Irkutsk, Russia, on Wednesday. The researcher who died worked in the lab.
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China Expands Its Military Reach by Building a Base in Laos

The new runway in Ban Keun is currently used by only small jets. Neighboring nations are watching warily to see if Beijing expands it for larger aircraft.

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Hacker Used Chinese-Developed A.I. Tool to Target South Korean Banks, CrowdStrike Says

The cybersecurity firm said the attacker was likely a Chinese speaker and financially motivated, but did not attribute the attacks to a named individual or group.

© Raphael Satter/Reuters

CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity firm, said in a report on Wednesday that it had found evidence of the use of A.I. in the attacks.
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Europe’s Trade Tensions With China Are Coming to a Head

The European Union is weighing tougher trade measures as negotiators prepare to meet Chinese officials in Beijing, with surging exports from China pressuring key industries in Europe.

© Pascal Bastien/Associated Press

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, has warned that Europe’s trade deficit with China has reached a “tipping point.”
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In Race With U.S., China Struggles to Recruit Foreign A.I. Researchers

Par : Zeyi Yang
China’s booming artificial intelligence sector has given local researchers good reason to remain in the country, but it has yet to lure overseas scientists despite a government push.

© Jade Gao/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Chinese A.I. companies like Deepseek and Moonshot have made a name for themselves internationally. But China still struggles to recruit foreign researchers.
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In Race With U.S., China Struggles to Recruit Foreign A.I. Researchers

Par : Zeyi Yang
China’s booming artificial intelligence sector has given local researchers good reason to remain in the country, but it has yet to lure overseas scientists despite a government push.

© Jade Gao/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Chinese A.I. companies like Deepseek and Moonshot have made a name for themselves internationally. But China still struggles to recruit foreign researchers.
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The Hidden Policies That Power China’s Export Boom

Huge tax breaks and a weak currency sustain exports, widen the government budget deficit and complicate the country’s efforts to rebalance its economy.

© Qilai Shen for The New York Times

Workers in a garment-making district in Guangzhou, China, last year.
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Ukraine wants to aim Starlink at Russian targets—and build a version Elon Musk can’t switch off

A Starlink satellite terminal set up in a Ukrainian wheat field. Illustrative image shared by Digital Minister Mykhailo Fedorov via Telegram

Ukraine is working on a satellite system of its own, something similar to SpaceX's Starlink, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 4 October, Interfax-Ukraine reported. He argued Kyiv should be free to turn Starlink on Russian military targets, warning that China and other states will share comparable satellite technology with Moscow within months. Ukraine's battlefield communications still ride on a network owned by Elon Musk, who has clashed with Kyiv and once limited its wartime use.

Low-orbit satellite internet has turned into a frontline utility that a single company or government can switch on or off, and both armies are now racing to own that link instead of renting it. Control of the network decides whose drones can see the battlefield and fly through the jamming to strike it—leverage Kyiv has gone without while its connection rode on hardware it does not run.

Working on a Starlink of its own

Zelenskyy said there was groundwork in place and that Ukraine was working on a system similar to Starlink. He called it fair for Ukraine to aim Starlink at military sites inside Russia. The timing is the reason, he said: some states will share the technology with Russia late this year or early next, and the Chinese are among them. Moscow is already fielding its own Starlink-style constellation, Rassvet, though for now it reaches Ukraine only in brief passes.

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Ukraine's troops and drones lean heavily on Starlink, a network Kyiv neither owns nor controls. Musk has used that control against Kyiv before: in 2022 SpaceX refused a Ukrainian request to extend Starlink over occupied Crimea for a drone strike on Russia's warships, and it has since restricted the network's use for drone operations.

Sanctions, and satellites of its own

Zelenskyy has asked US President Donald Trump several times to sanction the Russian and Chinese companies building Russia's Rassvet network, most recently at the UN General Assembly in New York, he said in a recent Financial Times interview.

Employees of Russian company Bureau 1440 work on a Rassvet communications satellite.
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Denys Shtilerman, co-founder and chief designer at Ukrainian defense company Fire Point, told the Financial Times in May that the firm had launched two satellites this year and planned dozens more in 2027, aiming to reduce reliance on the US government and Western tech companies. To strike deep inside Russia and gather intelligence, he has said, Ukraine needs its own constellation covering all of Russia.

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Mixed Human Feelings After a Day at a Park Full of Robots

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Superpowers Race to Put Nuclear Reactors on the Moon

The United States wants a reactor on the moon by 2030. A Russian-Chinese alliance is working on one for 2036. Some leading scientists say the danger is great.

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The moon and Earth were aligned in the same frame, each partly illuminated by the sun, as seen from behind the moon during the Artemis II flight in April.
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China’s Push Into A.I. Has Led to a Problem: Too Much Usage

As citizens embrace the technology for entertainment, relationships and even farming advice, the government is stepping up efforts to set limits.

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The Chinese government is imposing regulations on the use of A.I. apps and chatbots out of concern that the technology could interfere with human relationships and undermine social order.
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For years Ukraine could jam or switch off Russia’s battlefield comms. Rassvet may be the first it can’t

Video still from Bureau 1440's recent launch of 16 Rassvet satellites into low earth orbit

Russia's low-Earth-orbit satellite constellation Rassvet went from a few minutes of connectivity over Ukraine to two stable windows lasting more than an hour each in just five months. The system was built by the Russian private company Bureau 1440 as Moscow's answer to Starlink.

As of now, it is nowhere near matching SpaceX's 10,000-satellite network—but the gap between what Russia has now and what it needs is closing, and the tools that could slow it down mostly sit unused. When Ukraine and SpaceX bricked Russian-obtained Starlink terminals earlier this year, Russian assaults froze across the front—proof that cutting satellite command-and-control links matters more than disrupting guidance. Russia is now building its own links. The most consequential tool that could slow that down is Western sanctions against Bureau 1440 itself.

Four years of Western sanctions have failed to cut Russia off from the foreign components its missile and drone factories rely on: parts manufactured after sanctions were imposed still reach Russian assembly lines within months. Rassvet is a new version of the same problem. The system is still being built and relies on imported components whose exact origin is disputed—some experts point to American and European parts reaching Russia through sanctions-evasion networks, others say the core hardware is built from off-the-shelf Chinese components. Its manufacturer remains unsanctioned by any Western government, while some of the infrastructure needed to expand production has already been struck by Ukraine.

Six minutes in March, two hours by August

In March 2026, Bureau 1440 launched its first operational batch of 16 Rassvet satellites from Plesetsk Cosmodrome. Each pass over Ukraine created a window of six to 10 minutes, Serhii Beskrestnov, callsign Flash, a Ukrainian presidential adviser on defense technology, estimated at the time.

By late August, the picture had changed. Tracking data from N2YO showed four passes a day and two stable communication windows lasting more than an hour each. Satellite communications expert Volodymyr Stepanets said that 12 of the 16 satellites from the first batch had reached their operational altitude of 550 km, three were still ascending, and one had burned up—likely due to a manufacturing defect. A second batch of 16 went into orbit in July, though those satellites struggled to reach their target altitude and some may reenter the atmosphere.

Bureau 1440 shows footage of separation of 16 Rassvet satellites from Soyuz's third stage pic.twitter.com/jhe2krZ1kA

— afec7032 🇷🇺 (@afec7032) March 24, 2026

The second batch may be climbing faster than the first did at the same stage. Still, Russia is far from the 200–250 satellites Beskrestnov considers necessary for stable, round-the-clock coverage, and the altitude of roughly 550 km is still short of the roughly 800 km the constellation is designed to reach.

What Rassvet would change on the battlefield

Russia is unlikely to have any civilian use in mind for these communication windows. The satellites transmit in the Ka and Ku bands—high-frequency signals that are difficult to jam and difficult to detect.

Radio frequency spectrum and satellite frequency bands, including Ka and Ku bands used by Russia's Rassvet constellation. Source: Bliley Technologies

Right now, Ukraine's electronic warfare can push Russian drones offline: a Shahed flying low through a jammed zone loses its link and drifts off course. A satellite relay overhead would change that. The drone holds its course, receives updated coordinates mid-flight, stays below radar, and strikes. The constellation could do this for long-range strike and naval drones alike—letting them operate through electronic warfare at very low altitudes, where Ukraine's air defenses struggle to see them.

Bureau 1440 has also developed user terminals small enough to fit on Geran-type attack drones and cruise missiles. Gerans have struck Ukrainian territory, including Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, almost continuously over the past month. A terminal on a Geran would turn a one-way munition into a weapon that can be redirected after launch. Unlike the Starlink terminals Ukraine relies on, which are geographically restricted, Russian terminals are expected to face no such limits—the same terminal that connects a Geran over Kyiv Oblast would work over Berlin or Paris.

A pass of the Russian Rassvet satellites over Ukraine scheduled for April 21, 2026. Source: www.n2yo.com
A pass of the Russian Rassvet satellites over Ukraine scheduled for 21 April 2026. Source: www.n2yo.com

The sanctions lever—and the gap in it

Rassvet's parent company, IKS Holding, is one of Russia's largest hardware and software developers. The US sanctioned the holding, its then-owner Anton Cherepennikov, and the subsidiaries Kryptonit and KNS Group on 24 February 2023. Cherepennikov died under unexplained circumstances, but the company keeps operating.

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) says the holding serves as a personnel reserve for the Federal Security Service (FSB). The first deputy CEO of IKS Holding is Boris Korolyov, son of FSB First Deputy Director Sergei Korolyov, according to the SZRU. He took the post at 27 in 2023, after Cherepennikov's death.

More importantly, though, is the company that actually builds the satellites—Bureau 1440—and its leadership. Ukraine has placed the company on its own sanctions list, but Kyiv's unilateral designations carry limited trade enforcement power, because these people and this company are absent from Western lists. At Euromaidan Press's request, the US-based research organization C4ADS confirmed that Bureau 1440 and its leadership sit outside every Western sanctions regime, and called designating the manufacturer the single most visible and effective step available.

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From the Ukrainian side, Viktoriia Vyshnivska, a senior analyst at the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO), told Euromaidan Press that sanctions on Bureau 1440 are not a magic button—but they are not pointless, either. Because Bureau 1440 uses Western equipment, designating the company would directly affect trade in those boards and components, she said. Any Western manufacturer that kept doing business with the company would also risk investigation and legal consequences.

Given the reach of Russia's sanctions-evasion networks and its close ties with China in joint production and technology sharing.

"We shouldn't expect a magical effect," Vyshnivska said.

But sanctions would make direct trade impossible and raise the cost and difficulty of sourcing Western components.

Even if the useful window is short, making supplies more expensive and harder to find is the point.

Many of the goods Bureau 1440 uses are already banned from sale to Russia under EU export controls, Vyshnivska noted. Yet Bureau 1440 itself is still absent from the sanctions lists. Her recommendation: Bureau 1440, its current owners, its parent company, the key related entities and individuals, and its main suppliers should all be designated.

Illustration of the Russian Rassvet satellites by Bureau 1440
Illustration of the Russian Rassvet satellites by Bureau 1440

Diplomacy: Ukraine goes to the ITU

Beyond that, Ukraine is trying to act on its own on several fronts.

The first is diplomacy. On 28 August, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Ukraine had sent a formal note to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the UN agency that coordinates radio frequencies, demanding that Ukrainian territory be excluded from Rassvet's service areas across all frequency bands. The system's use over Ukraine "has nothing to do with civilian purposes," he wrote on X.

Today, we officially addressed the International Telecommunications Union @ITU requesting an exclusion of Ukraine’s national territory from the declared service areas of all beams of the Russian military satellite system 'Rassvet' satellite networks in all frequency bands.

The…

— Andrii Sybiha 🇺🇦 (@andrii_sybiha) August 28, 2026

Days later, at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Ireland, Sybiha handed partners a list of nine legal entities linked to the project and urged them to impose sanctions.

The EU had already moved once: its 21st sanctions package, adopted on 23 July, targeted the Rassvet network. But the main gap is not closed, and that round stopped short of the manufacturer, leaving Bureau 1440 and its chief executive off the lists.

Hitting the supply chain with weapons

Another lever is direct strikes. In mid-August, Ukrainian-made Flamingo cruise missiles struck an industrial zone in Samara that houses the Progress Rocket Space Center—the only plant in Russia that serially assembles the Soyuz-2.1b rockets used to launch Rassvet into orbit. Satellite imagery published by the Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ showed a collapsed roof section 85 meters long and 35 meters wide over Building 106A, the hall where crews wire the rockets' control systems and cabling. The channel reported two missile hits on that hall.

The aftermath of a strike by two FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles on the Progress Rocket and Space Center
The aftermath of a strike by two FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles on the Progress Rocket and Space Center. Photo: t.me/exilenova_plus

If the hall was destroyed, production could stop entirely, and switching to other Russian launch vehicles would take significantly longer and add complexity. Drones also attempted to strike Plesetsk Cosmodrome, from which both 2026 batches were launched.

Both targets—the factory that builds the rockets and the site that launches them—are needed if Russia is to expand Rassvet production.

The timeline: 5.5 to eight years, if nothing changes

Russia plans to expand the constellation to 292 satellites by the end of 2027, Deputy Chief of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR) Vadym Skibitskyi said. Moscow's longer-term goal is 924 satellites by 2035.

Soyuz spacecraft (TMA version)
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After SpaceX cuts off Starlink access, Russia launches first 16 satellites of its own “Rassvet” alternative

With 32 satellites already launched in two batches, 260 more are needed. At 16 satellites per launch, that requires roughly 17 launches. At a four-month interval between launches, deploying them would take roughly 5.5 years even if every launch succeeded and every satellite reached its target orbit. That most likely won't fully work out: one satellite from the first batch is already lost, two from the second batch may be lost as well, and none of them has yet reached the required altitude.

Russia also depends on the scarce Soyuz-2.1b rocket. The rocket has averaged only six to eight launches per year since 2022—most committed to GLONASS navigation satellites, ISS resupply, and military payloads—limiting Russia to a theoretical maximum of roughly two Rassvet-dedicated launches per year, or 128 Rassvet satellites over four years at that rate.

There is still time to shut this project down or slow it. Vyshnivska put the useful window to slow Rassvet at about a year. Russia, by Ukrainian calculations, needs five to eight years to see it through.

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Ukraine sanctions 5 Chinese firms for supplying components used in Russian drones

Ukraine sanctions 5 Chinese firms for supplying components used in Russian drones

President Volodymyr Zelensky signed an order on July 8 imposing sanctions on five Chinese-registered companies accused of supplying components found in Russian Shahed-type drones used to attack Ukraine.

The decree follows a statement by Ukraine's Security Service (SBU), which said it recovered Chinese-made parts from downed drones during a July 4 air assault on Kyiv.

Sanctions were imposed on Central Asia Silk Road International Trade, Suzhou Ecod Precision Manufacturing, Shenzhen Royo Technology, Shenzhen Jinduobang Technology, and Ningbo BLIN Machinery.

The list was published on the Presidential Office's website alongside the official decision by Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council.

Russia's domestically produced drones based on Iran's Shahed-136 is a loitering munition extensively used by Russia to target Ukrainian cities, and is assembled with components sourced from around the world. Kyiv has warned that some of these parts continue to flow through countries that have not joined Western sanctions.

China has emerged as one of Moscow's key wartime partners, helping Russia circumvent sanctions and becoming the largest supplier of dual-use goods aiding its defense sector.

Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the Ukrainian president's commissioner for sanctions, told journalists on July 7 that Russia's growing ability to sustain weapons production is being driven by a flow of Chinese components and materials.

Zelensky has repeatedly accused China of backing Russia and providing technological and logistical support for its war effort. On May 29, he said Beijing had blocked the sale of drones to Ukraine while continuing to supply them to Russia.

Ukraine has already sanctioned several Chinese companies tied to Russia's war effort.

As Russian-Chinese relations deepen, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit China in September, where he is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

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Ukraine sanctions 5 Chinese firms for supplying components used in Russian dronesThe Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy
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Russian weapons contain growing number of Chinese components, Zelensky's adviser says

Russian weapons contain growing number of Chinese components, Zelensky's adviser says

Russia’s growing ability to sustain weapons production despite Western sanctions is being driven by a flow of Chinese components and materials, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the Ukrainian president’s commissioner for sanctions, told journalists on July 7.

Vlasiuk’s statement comes as Russia escalates its drone and missile strikes on Ukraine, while the U.S. continues to hold back on imposing tougher sanctions against Moscow and foreign-made components are still being found in Russian weapons used in the attacks.

Ukraine has previously documented that Chinese companies have contributed electronics and materials used in the production of these drones.

Just days earlier, after a large-scale Russian attack on July 4, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha shared on social media a photo of a component from a Shahed-136/Geran-2 combat drone discovered in Kyiv. According to Sybiha, the part was manufactured in China and delivered recently.

"The trend of China’s (role) is increasing," Vlasiuk told journalists.

He said that the presence of Chinese-made components and materials in Russian weapons is on the rise, adding that Beijing is expanding its technological capabilities and can now replicate some American technologies.

What an irony. Following tonight's massive Russian air attack on Ukraine, we discovered in Kyiv a component of a Russian-Iranian "Shahed-136"/"Geran-2" combat drone, which was made in China and supplied just recently.

And right on the eve, the Chinese Consulate General's… pic.twitter.com/VetUqqVo67

— Andrii Sybiha 🇺🇦 (@andrii_sybiha) July 4, 2025

When asked by Kyiv about the Chinese parts found in Russian weapons, Beijing responded by claiming that such support is "non-lethal," the president's commissioner for sanctions said.

Beijing remains one of Russia's key wartime partners, helping Moscow evade Western sanctions and emerging as the leading supplier of dual-use goods used by the Russian defense industry.

In April, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that China, alongside Iran and North Korea, is supplying weapons to Russia.

His remarks followed reports that Ukrainian soldiers had captured Chinese nationals fighting together with Russia's army in Donetsk Oblast. Later, Zelensky revealed that at least "several hundred" Chinese nationals are fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine.

Ukraine has already sanctioned several Chinese companies tied to Russia’s war effort.

The South China Morning Post reported that China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told the EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas on July 3 that the country cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine amid fears Washington would shift focus towards Beijing.

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Trump threatens 10% tariff on countries backing BRICS 'anti-American policy'

Trump threatens 10% tariff on countries backing BRICS 'anti-American policy'

U.S. President Donald Trump said on July 6 that his administration will impose an additional 10% tariff on countries aligning themselves with what he described as the BRICS group's "anti-American policy."

"There will be no exceptions to this policy," Trump wrote on the social network Truth Social.

The announcement coincided with the BRICS summit in Brazil, where member states, including Russia, China, and India, adopted a declaration condemning strikes on Iran and Israel's operations in Gaza.

The document did not explicitly name the U.S. but criticized actions perceived as destabilizing. On June 21, the country carried out strikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

Trump's latest trade threat escalates tensions with the BRICS group, which has increasingly sought to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar and shift toward a multipolar world order.

Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, described the summit as the start of a new "Global South" era, highlighting the group's aim to reshape the global order.

Though Russian President Vladimir Putin said in October 2024 that there are no immediate plans to create a BRICS currency, he highlighted the group's goal of financial sovereignty.

In January, Trump warned of 100% tariffs on BRICS members if they attempt to adopt a new or existing currency to replace the U.S. dollar in international trade.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attended the BRICS summit in person, while Putin participated via video due to an outstanding International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant. Brazil, the summit's host, is an ICC member and obligated to arrest Putin if he enters the country.

The declaration also condemned incidents on Russian railway infrastructure and called for a negotiated settlement in the war against Ukraine. However, it avoided urging Russia to halt its full-scale invasion.

BRICS expanded in 2024, admitting Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates as new members. In October 2024, Putin hosted a BRICS forum in Kazan, attended by 36 world leaders.

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China may ask Russia to attack NATO if Taiwan is invaded, Rutte says

China may ask Russia to attack NATO if Taiwan is invaded, Rutte says

If China attacks Taiwan, Beijing may ask Moscow to open a second front against NATO states, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in an interview with The New York Times (NYT) published on July 5.

Fears of escalating Chinese military intervention in Taiwan have risen sharply since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war has served as a possible model of how both Taipei and the international community might respond if Beijing decides to invade.

"There's an increasing realization, and let's not be naive about this: If Xi Jinping would attack Taiwan, he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, residing in Moscow, and telling him, 'Hey, I'm going to do this, and I need you to keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory,'" Rutte said.

"That is most likely the way this will progress. And to deter them, we need to do two things. One is that NATO, collectively, being so strong that the Russians will never do this. And second, working together with the Indo-Pacific — something President (Donald) Trump is very much promoting," Rutte added.

Western officials and analysts point to Russia's surging military expenditures amid its ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

In 2024, Russia's defense budget reportedly rose 42% in real terms, reaching $462 billion, surpassing the combined spending of all European nations, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

NATO allies have cited Russia's military buildup, sabotage campaigns, and continued aggression against Ukraine as reasons to accelerate defense investments.

Rutte previously warned that Russia could rebuild its military capacity to threaten NATO territory within five years, urging members to act with urgency.

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  •  

Russia damages Chinese consulate in Odesa as Chinese drone parts found in Kyiv following similar attack

Russia damages Chinese consulate in Odesa as Chinese drone parts found in Kyiv following similar attack

A Russian missile and drone strike on Odesa on July 3 damaged the building of the Chinese Consulate General, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on July 4.

"Following tonight's massive Russian air attack on Ukraine, we discovered in Kyiv a component of a Russian-Iranian Shahed-136/Geran-2 combat drone, which was made in China and supplied just recently," Sybiha wrote on X.

"And right on the eve, the Chinese Consulate General's building in Odesa suffered minor damage."

The July 3 assault on Odesa killed two people and injured six others. China has not publicly acknowledged the incident or reported any damage to its diplomatic premises in the city.

The Shahed-136 drone, a loitering munition used by Russia in its attacks on Ukrainian cities, has been assembled in large numbers in Russia with components sourced globally.

Ukraine has previously documented that Chinese companies have contributed electronics and materials used in the production of these drones.

Beijing remains one of Russia's key wartime partners, helping Moscow evade Western sanctions and emerging as the leading supplier of dual-use goods used by the Russian defense industry.

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas on July 3 that Beijing cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine, according to the South China Morning Post, which cited unnamed sources familiar with the conversation.

The reported statement adds to growing concerns in Kyiv over China's expanding role in supporting Russia's war effort. President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly accused China of siding with Moscow.

As Russian-Chinese relations deepen, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit China in September for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, where he is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Zelensky, Trump discuss air defense, joint drone production amid Russian strikes
“Today we discussed the situation: Russian air strikes and, more broadly, the situation on the front lines. President Trump is very well informed,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
Russia damages Chinese consulate in Odesa as Chinese drone parts found in Kyiv following similar attackThe Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy
Russia damages Chinese consulate in Odesa as Chinese drone parts found in Kyiv following similar attack
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China's foreign minister tells EU that Beijing cannot afford Russia to lose in Ukraine, media reports

China's foreign minister tells EU that Beijing cannot afford Russia to lose in Ukraine, media reports

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told the EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas on July 3 that the country cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine amid fears the U.S. would shift focus towards Beijing, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported, citing sources familiar with the conversation.

As the war in Ukraine drags on, Wang's reported comments suggest that Russia's war in Ukraine may serve China's strategic needs as focus is deviated away from Beijing's mounting preparation to launch its own possible invasion into Taiwan.

China has been a key ally to Russia during its full-scale war, helping Moscow evade Western sanctions and becoming the leading source of dual-use goods fueling the Russian defense industry.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has not managed to broker a promised ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, has long viewed China as the United States' main adversary and is predominantly focused on relations between the two nations.

In June, Bloomberg reported Trump is pulling back from pressuring China over its support for Russia’s war effort, instead prioritizing other aspects of the U.S.-China relationship. The publication reported that the administration lowered the issue of Russia's war against Ukraine on its list of foreign policy priorities and is focusing on bilateral issues with Beijing, though they noted Trump could still shift course.

The frankness of Wang's reported admission was greeted with surprise by EU official, according to Hong Kong-based SCMP, amid China's past public statements in favor of a peace deal. Two sources familiar with the meeting told SCMP that they believed Wang was providing Kallas with a lesson in realpolitik during the four-hour encounter.

Wang on July 3 again reportedly rejected Western accusations that it was providing funding and weaponry to support Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly accused Beijing of providing weaponry to Moscow. On May 29, Zelensky said that China had stopped selling drones to Ukraine and Western countries while continuing to supply them to Russia.

Wang's comments come amid waning support from Kyiv's main military backer, the United States. On July 1, the U.S. Defense Department paused shipments of key weapons systems to Ukraine, including Patriot air defense missiles and precision-guided munitions.

As Russian-Chinese relations continue to grow, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to meet Chinese President Xi Jingping in September in China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.

Trump says he “didn’t make any progress” with Putin following phone call
When asked if he had made any progress with Putin on the call, Trump responded: “No, I didn’t make any progress with him today at all.”
China's foreign minister tells EU that Beijing cannot afford Russia to lose in Ukraine, media reportsThe Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat
China's foreign minister tells EU that Beijing cannot afford Russia to lose in Ukraine, media reports


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Putin, Xi to agree to meet in China as they sneer at G7 summit fractures

Putin, Xi to agree to meet in China as they sneer at G7 summit fractures

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to meet in August and September and noted the supposed "rough edges" that emerged among G7 leaders during their summit, said Putin's aide, Yuri Ushakov, on June 19.

In a phone call, the two leaders agreed to meet at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, China, between Aug. 31 and Sept. 1, and hold bilateral talks on Sept. 2, Ushakov said, according to the state news agency TASS.

China has been a key ally to Russia during its full-scale war, helping Moscow evade Western sanctions and becoming the leading source of dual-use goods fueling the Russian defense industry. Xi and Putin previously met during the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow in May.

While their phone call focused on the escalating security situation in the Middle East, the leaders also touched upon the G7 summit, noting "the well-known rough edges that emerged among the participants of this meeting," Ushakov said.

Putin and Xi also reportedly made mocking comments toward President Volodymyr Zelensky, saying it was not his "most successful trip abroad."

Zelensky was expected to meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the G7 summit in Canada, held from June 15 to 17, to discuss ways to increase pressure on Russia to end the war. Before Zelensky even arrived, Trump left the summit to address the escalating crisis in the Middle East, snubbing the meeting with the Ukrainian leader.

The G7 leaders were also unable to agree on a joint statement as the U.S. pushed for watered-down language on Russia. Instead, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney issued a summary saying that "G7 leaders expressed support for President Trump’s efforts to achieve a just and lasting peace in Ukraine."

"They recognized that Ukraine has committed to an unconditional ceasefire, and they agreed that Russia must do the same. G7 leaders are resolute in exploring all options to maximize pressure on Russia, including financial sanctions," the statement read.

While initially pledging to broker a swift peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow, Trump has become increasingly disengaged with the effort and resisted calls to increase pressure on Russia via additional sanctions.

Despite Trump's departure and disagreements with the U.S., Zelensky left the G7 summit with additional pledges of military support from Canada and new sanctions imposed against Russia's energy sector.

"Today, we have concrete decisions on increased military support, new tranches of aid funded by frozen Russian assets, and additional sanctions targeting what fuels Russia’s war," Zelensky said after the summit.

Zelensky also told the G7 leaders that "diplomacy is now in a state of crisis" and urged allies to press Trump "to use his real influence" to force an end to the war.

Diplomacy in crisis: G7 letdowns reveal limits to Western solidarity on Ukraine
KANANASKIS, Canada — The Group of Seven (G7) Leaders’ Summit ended on June 17 with no joint statement in support of Ukraine, no commitments to provide desperately needed U.S. weapons, and no meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump. The Ukrainian delegation headed into the summit,
Putin, Xi to agree to meet in China as they sneer at G7 summit fracturesThe Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat
Putin, Xi to agree to meet in China as they sneer at G7 summit fractures
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