• Zverev wins 6-3, 7-6 (7), 7-6 (6)

• German reaches third straight grand slam final

About 107 minutes into men’s semi-final day on Arthur Ashe Stadium, there was finally a touch of tension radiating from the court. After falling down a set and break, his semi-final meeting with his old rival Alexander Zverev swiftly turning into a beating, Karen Khachanov fought hard to force a second-set tie-break. Deep in that tension-filled tie-break, down 5-6 on his serve, Khachanov saved Zverev’s first set point with a bold forehand winner, and then at 6-7 he punctuated a screaming backhand passing shot winner with an imperious roar of his own.

There was a time when Zverev might have faltered under such pressure, but he has won too many big matches this year to allow such a small surge from a lower-ranked opponent to scare him. Zverev composed himself and he quickly regained control, navigating a second tense tie-break in similar fashion as he moved to within one match of winning a second career grand slam title in his last three major appearances by defeating Khachanov 6-3, 7-6 (7), 7-6 (6).

• Shelton wins 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 to reach first major final

• Zverev takes out Khachanov in straight sets to make final

• Townsend’s road comes full circle with US Open triumph

First set: *Tiafoe 1-2 Shelton (*denotes next server)

Shortly after crunching his first ace of the night, 123mph down the middle, Shelton faces his first pressure point of the night at 30-all. He then makes an unforced error off the backhand for 30-40 and will face his first break point, but he rattles off three quick points from there to escape with the hold.

On 22 May, a mechanized battalion of Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade—backed by at least two more brigades, the 60th Mechanized and the 66th, attached to the 3rd Army Corps for the operation—attacked Russian positions around the village of Nove, 15 km north of the town of Lyman in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast. Russian drones were heavily jammed that day. Roughly five Ukrainian vehicles were hit, most by fiber-optic drones—the only kind still able to fly.

Nobody outside the Ukrainian army reported it for three months. The first fragmentary accounts surfaced in late August; the full picture only this week. By then the 3rd Army Corps had taken back somewhere between 150 and 240 sq km and wrecked Russian plans for a northern siege of Sloviansk, one of the last two big free cities in Donetsk. Observer Thorkill, writing in Polish, called it a success on an operational scale.

The presence of that Ukrainian armor around Nove, which at the time anchored the right flank of a 100 sq km salient held by regiments of the Russian 20th Combined Arms Army, was an ominous sign for the Russians. After months of careful preparation by the 3rd Army Corps, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) were strong north of Lyman. Russian forces were weak.

"The moment AFU could start moving vehicles through the area, the battle was basically over," mapper Vitaly wrote three months later. "Vehicles didn't win it, they showed up because the conditions that had made vehicle movement impossible were already gone." Ukrainian drones were everywhere. And Russian drones, effectively jammed by electronic warfare, could barely fly.

Not everyone reads those months the same way. Thorkill, who tracked the sector throughout, puts the breakthrough at 17 to 18 August, and writes that for most of July and early August the 3rd Corps' attacks were repelled by the Russian 144th Motor Rifle Division. On that account the slow months were not a steady advance. What turned them, he says, is not clear: someone on the Ukrainian side made the difference north of Kolodiazi. He is candid about the limits of what can be seen. Some sources say the Russians withdrew, others deny it, others say they were partly cut off. What he can confirm from satellite imagery is that Ukrainian forces retook Serednie and Zelena Dolyna.

Overextended and pummeled by drones, the Russians barely clung to their salient north of Lyman, which sat between the Nitrius and Zherebets rivers. They were especially exposed at its western edge, where they had pushed across the Nitrius. The Russians had hoped the salient would be a "base for an offensive on Lyman, which could have allowed further offensives to Izium and Sloviansk [and] threatened the northern supply road to Donbas," according to mapper Clément Molin.

Instead, the salient became a trap as the Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps relentlessly—but quietly—exploited the fragility of the Russian 20th Combined Arms Army. The Russians have now been pushed back toward the Zherebets, leaving behind their uncounted dead ... and their ambitions for a quick northern march on Lyman and then Sloviansk and neighboring Kramatorsk.

It had taken Russian forces 18 months to set the conditions for a push toward Sloviansk from the north. In the three months beginning with that mechanized assault around Nove, the Russians "apparently lost 1.5 years of progress in the area," Vitaly concluded. Estimates of the ground retaken vary: Molin puts it at more than 200 sq km, the AKM Mapping account at 151, and Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting at around 240.

The appearance of Ukrainian armor around Nove in late May was a strong indication that the 3rd Army Corps had the momentum. But that doesn't mean the Corps' eventual victory in the battle for the Lyman salient was a foregone conclusion. On paper, the Russians have a manpower and firepower advantage in Donetsk.

A bridgehead too far

The 20th Combined Arms Army advanced too far, too fast. And the terrain favored the Ukrainian defenders, who could pluck at the Russians' supply lines from entrenched positions until the time was right for a counterattack.

"Russia putting itself inside a deep, narrow pocket only made the final phase easier," Vitaly explained. "Once AFU had enough control over the surrounding movement, every new Russian mission sent into the area walked into a reinforced perception trap—troops committed to hold positions that existed far more convincingly in reports than as a functioning front."

The silence

What kept the trap working was that nobody talked about it. The Ukrainian general staff said nothing. Pro-Ukrainian analysts, who normally map every advance within hours, held their tongues until late August. So did the Russians.

Observer Andrew Perpetua, who has followed Ukraine's other quiet operations around Kupiansk and in southern Donetsk, called this one tighter still. The Lyman operation "seemed even more protected since even the most in the know and honest Russian reporters seem to be missing it. Or at least silent about it," he wrote. "It was honestly shocking to watch how out of the loop the Russians really were, which I think is in large part due to the collective action of OSINT to avoid speaking about the situation."

Perpetua's reading is that the lying is heaviest exactly where Russian forces are being pushed back. Nearby Sviatohirsk is the case in point. Vladimir Putin recently announced its capture. On 7 September, the commander of the 3rd Army Corps, Brig. Gen. Andrii Biletskyi, walked around the town on camera.

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Ukraine’s secret counteroffensive is more successful than we thought

The 3rd Army Corps cut across the salient around three weeks ago, reaching the northern edge of Kolodiazi and trapping an unknown number of Russian stragglers between the Ukrainian vanguard and the old Russian bridgehead. Most of the encircled Russians appear to have escaped. "There is a large area where there may still be Russian soldiers," Molin warned. "Most of the villages westwards have been cleared, but not the treelines."

On 24 August the Ukrainians mounted a second mechanized attack, so the operation has not stopped. But the 3rd Army Corps is likely shifting from attacking to consolidating and defending—and clearing out the Russian stragglers that, left alone, could sow chaos in the new gray zone that was once a Russian salient.

Russian channels have started to admit the problem. Rybar wrote of "problems near Lyman," conceding that Ukrainian units have been attacking southward from Ridkodub for months and that Russian forces "do not even control the airspace immediately near the front line." The fighting continues, but on Ukraine's terms, for now.

How much it changes is the one thing the analysts do not agree on. "This is one of the most important victory for Ukraine in 2026," Molin wrote, a victory that "will delay the offensive on northern Donbas." Thorkill, in the same post that called it an operational-scale success and rated it larger than the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps' gains near Velyka Novosilka in July, ends on the opposite note: it will not, he writes, affect in any way the situation of Ukrainian forces on the direction that matters most at present, the Kramatorsk agglomeration.

Alexander Zverev reached his first grand slam final in a row with a 6-3 7-6 (7) 7-6 (6) victory against Karen Khachanov in New York

Karen Khachanov emerges from the tunnel first, followed by Alexander Zverev. Apparently the German was a minute or two late because he needed some extra time in the toilet – we’ve all been there.

On Arthur Ashe Stadium, a retired servicewoman sings the American national anthem before the players come out. Flags are flying at half mast around the grounds today on the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Arthur Ashe was also lit up blue from dusk until dawn this morning.

The US president is ever more wayward – and has little interest in defending Europe. The constitution may hold him to account, but we can’t wait

If Americans vote for a Republican majority in both houses of Congress in November, “I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000.” But they must not spend it in Canada or China or anywhere else outside the US. So said Donald Trump in Texas on Wednesday in advance of the forthcoming midterm elections. He further told voters to “Pretend that I’m on the ballot”. It was a climactic moment in an almost two-hour rant.

Trump does not have the required trillion dollars in his pocket, and it would be illegal to disperse such a sum without congressional approval. In any case, JD Vance now appears to have rowed back on the promise.

Simon Jenkins is a Guardian columnist

The US manager’s relationship with the international job has changed with a full World Cup cycle beginning

I hope, in this lifetime, you find someone who loves you the way Mauricio Pochettino loves Tottenham Hotspur. The grip Spurs have on his heart seems the stuff of a literary classic: his imperfect partner who called things off at the first sign of trouble must merely check in on him occasionally to rekindle hopes of a reunion.

Perhaps a bit extreme, but this week’s revelation – that he’d return to Tottenham even if they were relegated and chalking his absence up to imperfect timing, not the part about handing the club a decade-old title – has implicity laid out the terms of his return as United States manager. Others may always have interest in his services, and a certain North London suitor will never get the door slammed in their face outright.

Five-set matches are physically punishing, occasionally absurd and increasingly under threat. They also produce much of what makes grand slam tennis great

Tuesday night’s quarter-final match between Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz had everything a US Open spectacle could ask for: huge stakes, knife-edge drama, top-shelf competition and an American hero who comes through in the end. The only fault to find was really the matter of time. The first ball wasn’t struck until 11.05 in the evening, and Shelton’s clinching ace didn’t come until 3.33 in the morning – marking, after a total of 4hr 28min on court, the latest-ending US Open match by a whopping 43 minutes.

Somewhat predictably, the discourse among media and fans following the late-night match has swiftly moved on from the USTA’s misadventures in scheduling to a referendum on the five-set match and whether it should be put out to pasture. For the record: that would be a colossal unforced error.

The president demonised Democrats in an attempt to wangle votes in midterms despite backlash over Iran war

With his approval rating at a historic low, Donald Trump has brought down the curtain on the Republicans’ first ever midterm convention by pleading with supporters to do him “the biggest favour” and “pretend” they are voting for him in November’s US elections.

The president is facing a growing backlash over rising prices and the war in Iran. Sweeping losses for the Republican party could effectively turn Trump into a lame duck for his final two years in the White House.

Vice-president dog-whistled, exaggerated claims of success and echoed Trump talking points to excited audience

JD Vance made a clear pitch that he should be the heir to Donald Trump on Thursday night, closing out the Republicans’ midterm convention with a blistering speech that featured exaggerated claims of success, criticism of Democrats as “lunatics” and an aggressive dismissal of a protester waving a Mexican flag.

Speaking in Dallas, the vice-president showed he could channel the basest instincts of his boss, filling his remarks with dog whistles and echoing Trump’s false claims that Democrats “cheered” the 7 October massacre of Israelis.

• Second seeded Kazakh comes from set down to win 3-6, 6-4, 6-4

• Sabalenka awaits in title decider after blitzing Jessica Pegula

One set may have already passed in her first US Open semi-final, but Elena Rybakina still had not arrived inside Arthur Ashe Stadium. While an inspired Coco Gauff blew through the first stanza covering every inch of the acrylic surface as their 22,000-strong audience screamed for the Kazakhstani’s blood, Rybakina was wild and erratic from the baseline and her peerless serve was nowhere to be seen.

Nobody reaches the summit of professional without being able to problem-solve through difficult days on courtthough, and Rybakina gave a brilliant showcase of the underrated toughness at the heart of her success as she coolly recovered from a set down to overpower Gauff and seal her spot in her first US Open final with a 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 win.

• Sabalenka defeats Pegula 7-5, 6-2 in semi-final

• Champion extends US Open winning streak to 19

• Belarusian faces Rybakina in Saturday’s final

Aryna Sabalenka’s grip on the US Open showed no sign of weakening on Thursday night as the two-time defending champion swept past Jessica Pegula 7-5, 6-2 to move one win from a third straight title.

The top-seeded Belarusian star finished with 29 winners to Pegula’s 12, her relentless aggression turning what had been a 50-50 fight deep into the opening set into a one-sided affair that marked her 19th consecutive victory at Flushing Meadows.

A Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship cruise missile struck the Russian missile frigate Admiral Essen in the port of Novorossiysk in southern Russia overnight on 8–9 September, the Ukrainian navy claimed. Satellite imagery published by the Ukrainian open-source group Exilenova+ shows fires and apparent damage consistent with the claim. How badly the ship is hurt is unclear.

But if the navy is correct and one of its truck-launched Neptunes hit Admiral Essen, it would be a major victory for Ukraine—and a major loss for Russia. Pummeled by Ukrainian missiles and drones, the Russian Black Sea Fleet has lost or had damaged around a third of its combat strength, by Ukraine's own reckoning. No more than eight of the surviving vessels carry launchers for launching the fleet's best missile: the Kalibr cruise missile.

Taking out those eight Kalibr shooters—two frigates, three corvettes, and as many as three submarines—is a top priority for Ukraine. Preserving the Kalibr ships is one of Russia's top priorities as it escalates its bombardment of Ukrainian cities, factories, warehouses, and power plants.

And the frigate wasn't the only ship in the target set. Ukraine's general staff confirmed hits on three vessels—Admiral Essen, the minesweeper Zheleznyakov, and the landing ship Pyotr Morgunov—along with fuel-oil storage at the port. Exilenova+ reads the imagery as showing two more Kalibr carriers hit: a Kalibr-armed Buyan-M corvette knocked out of action, and fresh damage to sister frigate Admiral Makarov.

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Ukraine reported hitting warships and an oil terminal in a Russian port city whose mayor claimed only falling debris

To be clear, it's evident the Ukrainians have already hit Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov. A Ukrainian drone raid targeting Novorossiysk on 12 August resulted in what appeared to be direct hits to the forward missile cells on both ships.

Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov can launch as many as eight of the 2,500-km Kalibrs at a time from these 3S14 cells. Damage the cells, and the frigates can no longer threaten Ukraine. At least until the Russians can effect repairs. Ukraine's military intelligence directorate described this week's damage as a fire on Admiral Essen's deck superstructure—not its missile cells.

Hitting one of the frigates with a 900-km/h Neptune's 260-kg warhead, as opposed to the much lighter warhead on a much slower drone, could do more than temporarily sideline the ship. It may cause irreparable damage, effectively removing the vessel from the Black Sea Fleet's dwindling order of battle.

Recall that a pair of Neptunes from a much earlier batch of the increasingly powerful missile sank the Russian missile cruiser Moskva in April 2022, initiating the ongoing battle over the Black Sea that has seen the Russians gradually lose irreplaceable ships—and gradually pull back surviving vessels into Novorossiysk's protected basin.

Unsafe haven

Novorossiysk, 350 km from the southern front line, is safer for Russian ships than are, say, the ports of occupied Crimea. But it's not actually safe. Ukrainian drones and missiles routinely target the port and the dozens of ships moored inside.

Most of the Ukrainian munitions miss or get shot down. Undeterred, Ukrainian deep strike forces have only intensified their strikes. Launching more Neptunes would represent another escalation. Drones damage. Neptunes destroy.

Even if one or more Neptunes finally took Admiral Essen out of action this week, there's more work left to do. The Russians normally fire fewer than 10 Kalibrs as part of the mix of missiles and drones they hurl at Ukrainian cities once a week or so.

A single frigate can fire eight Kalibrs at a time. So can a single corvette. A submarine might fire four Kalibrs. Even with Admiral Essen off the board, the carriers that may still be combat-capable can put 16 to 20 Kalibrs into the air at once, per Defence Express. Before 2022 the theoretical figure was 76.

Ukraine's navy puts the number in the same range. On 21 August, spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk counted three surface ships and two submarines able to fire Kalibrs, with both frigates excluded as damaged. He also noted the fleet used its missile carriers once in August, down from three times in July, and now fires from inside protected harbors rather than putting to sea.

But more and better Neptunes may be coming to Novorossiysk. More Kalibr shooters may burn. Ukrainian missile-maker Luch Design Bureau has steadily improved the Neptune with greater range and payload while also increasing production. An open-source tally published by Ukrainska Pravda counted 26 verified Neptune hits on Russian land targets between 2023 and mid-2026.

Ukraine seems determined to eventually reduce the Black Sea Fleet's Kalibr capacity to zero. It will take time and many more strikes, of course. How soon the Ukrainians can send more Neptunes to Novorossiysk may determine how many more Kalibrs blast Ukrainian cities.

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Ukraine finally hit three Russian Kalibr ships on 12 August. On the 19th, an untouched one hit Kyiv

• Sabalenka on brink of trifecta after blitzing Pegula

• Rybakina rallies past Gauff to reach first US Open final

First set: Sabalenka 1-0 *Pegula (*denotes next server)

A strong start for Sabalenka, who wins the first game with ease. She gets an ace on the second point of the match and keeps the rallies short to hold.

Veteran Frenchman bowed out in New York but the clash of two black players in the last four of the men’s singles is testament to his effect

The early days of this year’s US Open can be told in a series of farewells to competitors who plan to end their careers this year. The most moving of them all came in the form of Gaël Monfils’s grand departure inside Louis Armstrong Stadium against the wildly talented 20-year-old Learner Tien. Tien was competing in front of his home crowd, one of the Americans capable of a deep run, but for much of his straight-sets defeat the Frenchman had the American crowd in the palm of his hands.

Beyond the massive popularity he has garnered among tennis fans, one of the most striking parts of Monfils’s long farewell was seeing how highly nearly all of his fellow professionals, particularly his fellow black players, regard him. Frances Tiafoe says he spent his youth looking up to Monfils. Arthur Fils considers Monfils his older brother. Naomi Osaka’s nickname for Monfils, one of her idols, is simply “the Goat”. They all hold Monfils in such great esteem, and for good reason.

Democrats are targeting Trump’s relationship with Epstein as part of strategy ahead of midterm elections

James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Texas, accused his rival Ken Paxton of “ignoring” survivors of Jeffrey Epstein’s sexual abuse, as Democrats seek to increase pressure on Republicans ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Speaking in Dallas, where Republicans are holding a midterm convention this week, Talarico appeared alongside one of Epstein’s victims at an exhibit that featured about 3.5m pages of Department of Justice’s files related to Epstein.

Trump’s promise to pay $5,000 to every adult US citizen if the Republicans win in November was only one questionable moment in a nearly two-hour speech

• This was originally published in This Week in Trumpland. Sign up to receive it in your inbox every Wednesday

Hello, from the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, where on Wednesday night Trump definitely, definitely, did not try to bribe the American public into voting for his party in November.

Speaking for almost two hours at the American Airlines Center, Trump promised to pay every adult citizen in the US $5,000 if Republicans retain the House and Senate in the midterm elections. The speech felt very much like a desperate last pitch to voters: the electoral equivalent of a dumped boyfriend offering to take his estranged girlfriend on a mini-break to Venice.

Trump promise of $5,000 for US citizens after midterms decried as ‘bribery’

As the midterms loom, Trump returns to his happy place: on stage in the theatre of the absurd

Trump’s top six falsehoods about 9/11 as 25th anniversary nears

Republican calls department of motor vehicles a ‘bloated bureaucracy’ as he seeks to boost his longshot campaign

The longshot California gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton pledged this week to abolish the state’s department of motor vehicles if he is elected, promising to shutter the oft-criticized department for good and set a flat $73 annual registration fee per car.

Hilton, a Trump-backed former conservative pundit running in reliably blue California, called the state’s DMV a “bloated bureaucracy”, during a Tuesday campaign event, echoing the Trump administration’s efforts to slash the federal workforce.

Court declined to ⁠put on hold ⁠injunction preventing the USPS from tightening rules around postal voting

A US appeals court has rejected Donald Trump’s attempt to impose sweeping restrictions on mail-in voting before November’s high-stakes midterm elections, dealing a fresh blow to the president’s attempted crackdown.

The Boston-based first US circuit court of appeals declined on Thursday to ⁠put on hold an ⁠injunction issued by a ​lower court judge last week, preventing the US Postal Service (USPS) from tightening rules around postal voting.

Surprise appearance by Pennsylvania senator raises fresh questions over loyalty to and future in Democratic party

The Democratic senator John Fetterman’s decision to address the Republican National Committee (RNC) midterm convention via video sparked a furious response from some members of his party.

Fetterman’s surprise appearance – and praise of his fellow Pennsylvania senator, Republican Dave McCormick – raised fresh questions over his loyalty to, and future inside, the Democratic party.

Latest decision appears to set the stage for the state to use its old electoral maps this year

The US supreme court again rejected a push backed by Donald Trump to overhaul Missouri’s congressional maps in an effort to hand Republicans an edge in November’s midterm elections.

Its latest ruling, after days of confusion, comes less than two months before the pivotal midterm elections in which control of the narrowly divided US House of Representatives could be determined by a handful of seats.

Critics react to bid for Republican votes with incredulity and point to potential $1.2tn cost atop existing national debt

Donald Trump’s promise of a $5,000 “Trump dividend” for every US citizen if Republicans retain control of the US Congress in November’s midterm elections has sparked incredulity and accusations of bribery.

“If the Republicans win, you win with us and you get $5,000,” Trump said during the unprecedented Republican midterm convention in Dallas. “It will be called the Trump dividend.”

Teo Davidov doesn’t hit backhands. He serves from both sides. The 16-year-old from Denver is treating the tennis world to a wildly unorthodox style – and proving it’s more than a parlor trick

Teo Davidov always has the upper hands. An amiable junior prodigy from Denver, the 16-year-old was the oddest sight at this year’s US Open, the only player in the tournament – man, woman or junior – who hits only forehands. To be clear: it’s not that he doesn’t have a backhand or can’t hit a backhand. He’s ambidextrous and so he doesn’t bother with them.

It’s nothing personal. “To be honest, I like the traditional backhand-forehand,” he says. “I like the classiness of it. I like hitting backhands myself just to play around, just for fun.” He hits those from both wings, too.

Host says he’s interviewing Senate candidate ‘under unusual circumstances’ and it will be posted on YouTube

Late-night TV host Jimmy Kimmel has said an upcoming interview with the Democratic Senate candidate from Texas James Talarico will not air on ABC, the US network that broadcasts his show, after the federal media regulator “threatened” his show, ABC and its local affiliates.

“Tomorrow night I’ll be interviewing James Talarico under unusual circumstances,” Kimmel said during his opening monologue on Jimmy Kimmel Live! on Wednesday.

• Fiba World Cup: USA 108-56 Hungary

• Reese and Clark have been portrayed as fierce rivals

Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark’ s interactions are a subplot of the women’s Fiba World Cup, the WNBA season and if you spend enough time on social media, a divided United States. Clark and Reese have shown their relationship on the court is thriving, and they both excelled in USA’s 108-56 quarter-final win over Hungary on Thursday.

In Thursday’s game, the growing chemistry showed. The pair had a nifty pick-and-roll to end the first quarter that ended with a layup by Reese. The Atlanta Dream forward returned the favor hitting Clark on a fastbreak for an easy lay-up later in the game.

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• Trump promise of $5,000 for US citizens after midterms decried as ‘bribery’

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The Supreme Court has blocked a federal judge’s ruling that would’ve restored Republican-drawn congressional districts in Missouri.

The decision, issued by justice Brett Kavanaugh, appeared to sound a death knell for efforts by the Missouri GOP to extract an additional Republican-leaning congressional seat for their party ahead of the midterm elections.

President’s quest in self-mythology stops off in Dallas for a Republican convention where fans indulged his lies and revelled in his jokes

Kim Il-sung of North Korea reportedly sought transfusions of blood from young men; Mao Zedong of China believed sex with young women could prolong his life; Muammar Gaddafi underwent fat injections and hair transplantation to make himself look younger. But for Donald Trump, the secret of eternal youth lies in nights like this.

The occasion of the Republican midterm convention in Dallas was enough to get the 80-year-old US president’s juices flowing. An arena with thousands of fanatical supporters indulging his lies, laughing at his jokes and burnishing his fantasies of greatness is Trump’s happy place.

President makes offer that would cost US over $1tn and asks voters to ‘pretend that I’m on the ballot’ despite being deeply unpopular among electorate

Donald Trump pledged to pay every adult citizen in the US $5,000 if Republicans retain the House and Senate in the midterm elections, during a marathon speech at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas in which the president assailed Democrats as “radical” and defended his unpopular war in Iran.

The outlandish proposal, which would cost over $1tn, immediately raised ethical concerns. But it laid bare the extent of the Republicans’ concern about their prospects in the pivotal November elections.

• American rallies from brink to defeat Andreeva

• Gauff survives 12 double faults in three-set escape

Coco Gauff has played far cleaner matches than on Wednesday afternoon. But few players today on the women’s tour have become better at finding answers on the fly when almost nothing is working for them.

The 22-year-old American’s serene march through the US Open women’s draw hit extreme turbulence early in her quarter-final clash with fifth-seeded Mirra Andreeva inside Arthur Ashe Stadium. She dropped the first four games before surrendering the opening set in 26 minutes, ending a streak of 20 consecutive sets won dating back nearly a month. She piled up 12 double faults and 42 unforced errors, the majority off a forehand in open revolt. She found herself one point from defeat not once but twice during a hairy second-set tiebreaker.

Helena Foulkes beats incumbent Dan McKee after criticizing handling of Providence’s Washington bridge, now expected to be completed in 2028

Rhode Island’s Dan McKee became the first sitting governor to lose a primary in nearly a decade, bested not by a more progressive challenger or a more youthful upset but by frustration over a bridge.

McKee lost his Democratic primary to Helena Foulkes, a former longtime executive with Rhode Island-based retail pharmacy CVS, the Associated Press said on Wednesday.

Senator praises ‘great friend’ Dave McCormick and says he will help him and Trump to support steel in Pennsylvania

The Democratic senator John Fetterman made a surprise virtual appearance at the Republican midterm convention, delivering a video address supporting Dave McCormick, a Republican senator in Pennsylvania.

Fetterman, who has increasingly broken with his party since his election in 2022, said in the video that he would always reject “extremes and socialism”, repeating an oft-used Republican critique of the Democratic party’s increasingly popular left wing.

Appeal against federal panel’s approval of Trump-backed maps is latest move in legal back-and-forth spanning four courts

A high-stakes legal battle over Missouri’s congressional map returned on Wednesday to the US supreme court, after a series of conflicting decisions threw the state’s elections into turmoil less than two months before the November midterm elections.

On Wednesday, a federal appeals court panel declined to block a ruling ordering Missouri to use the newly drawn congressional lines backed by Donald Trump to give Republicans an edge in the midterms elections. Opponents of the state’s redistricted map immediately filed an appeal to the US supreme court.

Coco Gauff saved two match points to set up a semi-final against Elena Rybakina, who secured the world No 1 ranking with her three-set win over Zheng Qinwen

Rybakina has won four of her five meetings with Zheng, including two three-set victories this year. But Zheng was earlier in her comeback from elbow surgery then, the 2024 Olympic champion is a totally different proposition now, carrying the momentum of seven successive match wins in New York having come through qualifying - and the belief she can turn around any deficit after coming from 5-0 down in sets against both Madison Keys in the third round and Iga Swiatek in the last 16.

Here come Zheng and Rybakina, Zheng stepping on to court wearing headphones, not that there’s much noise to drown out yet at 11.35am New York time. Both already look extremely focused with their game faces on.

The 23-year-old’s epic win over Carlos Alcaraz means there is a real chance of an American man winning the US Open for the first time since 2003

In yet another graveyard shift at the US Open, Ben Shelton showed he can hang around late, ousting defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in five sets in a quarter-final that started on Tuesday night and finished on Wednesday morning. When Shelton fired the final ball out wide for his seventh ace of the night, the clock on the Arthur Ashe Stadium court read 3.33am. It was the latest-ever finish at the Open and the fifth-latest finish in grand slam history.

After embracing Alcaraz at the net, he pumped his fists and greeted his coach’s box with a primal scream. Parents have a name for this: the zoomies. Then Shelton looked to the stands and gestured at his mother and his girlfriend, soccer star Trinity Rodman. In his on-court interview, he asked that his sister, Emma, be given the day off. She had spent the entire night and much of the early morning watching her little brother play.

After young people shifted right for Trump, Democratic-aligned groups across the US are eager to capture gen Z voters before November’s midterm elections

On the first day of the fall semester at California State University, Northridge, student organizers holding “Hot People Vote” signs wheeled a bright pink wagon outside the student union. They offered “no strings attached” donuts, heart-shaped sunglasses and voting information for the November general election. Even though it was 105F outside, dozens of people stopped by to chat with the Donuts + Democracy volunteers and register to vote.

One student told organizer Dzian Tran that she didn’t plan to vote because she was disillusioned with politics. Tran chatted with her about how civic engagement is important to democracy and how some elections are won by a margin of only 400 votes. As she thanked Tran, the student held her phone up to a QR code to get more information about voting.

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• US citizens will receive $5,000 if Republicans win midterms, Trump claims in lengthy convention speech

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Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of a longtime New Hampshire senator and former governor, has won the Democratic nomination in the race for Chris Pappas’s former House seat.

Stefany Shaheen’s mother Jeanne Shaheen is a former governor who has represented New Hampshire in the Senate since 2009. The younger Shaheen’s family ties to the Democratic establishment – and accusations of nepotism – became a point of attack by her opponent in the primary race.

GOP plans to center the president at rare two-day Texas event as party hopes to retain control of House in midterms

Republicans are gathering in Texas on Wednesday for a rare “midterm convention”, as they attempt to convince Americans to vote for a party led by a deeply unpopular president who has overseen inflation and led the US into an increasingly unpopular war.

Donald Trump will dominate the two-day convention, appearing both nights as the GOP works to cling to control of the House of Representatives in November. Republicans plan to put the president at the center of the event, a bold strategy given his approval rating is hovering at about 38%, while accusing the Democratic party of being socialist and out of touch with Americans.

• Winner claims 6-7 (5), 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6 (7) victory

• Epic quarter-final ends after 3.30am in New York

As the official 10th day of play in New York moved deeper into the remote hours of the new morning, every passing game imbued Carlos Alcaraz with greater despair. From his focused start, Alcaraz’s intensity had flatlined and he could barely put a ball in court. He lost nine consecutive games against Ben Shelton and seemed to have nothing left.

Instead, the defending champion improbably dragged himself back into a contest that soon developed into one of the most remarkable matches of the year. The latest attempt by Alcaraz, the second seed, at orchestrating a monumental comeback was denied by a brave, defiant Shelton, the eighth seed, who refused to be shaken by his legendary rival or the looming prospect of securing the greatest win of career.

• Shelton sees off Alcaraz in latest ever US Open finish

• Tiafoe breaks Michelsen’s heart with epic comeback

First set: Shelton 3-2 Alcaraz* (*denotes next server)

An even breezier service game from Shelton, who holds to love. During the changeover, the cameras pan to a few of the celebrities in the audience. There’s Kevin Hart taking it in from a suite. And, of course, there’s USA and Washington Spirit forward Trinity Rodman, Shelton’s girlfriend, watching from his player box. We’ve also heard Simone Biles is in the building somewhere.

• No 11 seed rallies for 5-7, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 (6) win

• Tiafoe into third US Open semi-final in five years

• American will play Alcaraz or Shelton in last four

At the end of more than four and a half hours of escalating drama inside the world’s biggest tennis stadium, a devastated Alex Michelsen fell into Frances Tiafoe’s arms just outside the tramlines, sobbing uncontrollably. Tiafoe took his younger countryman in an embrace and held him there for 23 seconds, the victor consoling the vanquished in the aftermath of an extraordinary comeback that had carried him, somehow, into the US Open semi-finals.

Only a couple of hours earlier, the 28-year-old Tiafoe had been two sets down and two points from elimination in the third set, with Michelsen within touching distance of the biggest victory of his young career. Instead, Tiafoe roared back from the brink to win a quarter-final that will be long remembered in New York, outlasting Michelsen 5-7, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 (6) on Tuesday afternoon to reach the last four at Flushing Meadows for the third time in five years. Now he will face Ben Shelton on Friday after the American ousted defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in another epic five-set marathon that ended at 3.33am on Wednesday morning.

Frontrunner Sununu beats Scott Brown to earn Republican nod in closely watched race in November

Former senator John E Sununu triumphed on Tuesday in the New Hampshire Republican Senate primary over Scott Brown, earning the GOP nod in what will probably be a must-win race if Democrats hope to seize the upper chamber.

Sununu, 61, was the clear frontrunner in the GOP primary. He served one term in the Senate from 2003 to 2009.

Candidates must focus on two issues: affordability and accountability. They are not competing priorities

As the November election approaches with control of the House and Senate on the line, the stakes are high. With so much riding on the outcome, there is no shortage of debate about the message Democrats need to win.

Affordability has emerged as a shared – if often undefined – rallying cry. Working families are struggling with rising costs and looking for answers. But too often, we’ve seen affordability positioned as the beginning and end of the plan. Meanwhile, many see holding the Trump administration accountable for its corruption and harms as at odds with a relentless focus on kitchen-table issues.

The president apparently plans to focus on the person he most admires – himself – even if Republicans would rather he didn’t

With the midterm races officially beginning this week, a big question hanging over the Republican party is how Trump will allocate his giant stash of Super Pac money. As of 31 July, Maga Inc had more than $400m on hand, larger than the cash reserves of any of the major party committees.

But he’s barely spent any of it yet. Why not?

Finland shut more than 2,000 people into a rock-hewn shelter that is normally a sports hall in Kuopio on 2 September, with some remaining overnight to practice operating the facility, the Associated Press reported. The two-day exercise, Shelter 2026, was the largest civil defense drill in Europe since World War II, by AP's account. Its scenario had cyberattacks cutting power and water while the threat of Russian missile strikes grew.

What two hours underground exposed

Three colleges got the alarm at 11:30 on 2 September, and students had about half an hour to reach the shelter, called Luola, or the Cave, Yle reported that evening. Staff barred the doors behind them. Partitions divided the sports hall into rooms of about 200 people. There were not enough beds, so people rested in shifts, and 60 dry toilets served everyone. The internet worked poorly, and the air grew heavy after an hour. The site holds up to 7,000 people under emergency law.

Antti Haataja, preparedness chief at the North Savo Rescue Department, said the move underground went calmly and faster than he expected. A real emergency would put those inside to work, he added, including emptying the toilets. More than a hundred people stayed through the night into 3 September, Yle said, while AP described hundreds sleeping on trestle beds.

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Finland ends nuclear weapons ban as parliament approves major NATO-aligned defense shift

Finland is reading Ukraine's experience

Retired Finnish Army Colonel Asko Muhonen, who organized the drill, said Finland has to learn from Ukraine, where people sometimes have only minutes to reach a metro station. What matters is cover they can actually get to, not a shelter that survives a nuclear blast. Ukraine's parliament is advancing a Finnish-style bill that would put one within 10 minutes of everyone.

Dmytro Untila, 20, a Ukrainian student in Kuopio, was at home in Odesa when Russian missiles hit the city on 24 February 2022, and waited the strike out in his building's entrance hall, having nowhere better to go. Training like this would have helped in Ukraine, he said, "because nobody knew this could happen."

The pressure Finland and its neighbors are drilling against

Finland shares more than 1,300 km of border with Russia and joined NATO with Sweden after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Shelters answer only part of the pressure. Russia is running a campaign of sabotage across Europe, Western officials say, a Russian aircraft is suspected of having entered Finnish airspace on 20 August, and US intelligence has warned that Poland and the Baltic states may face wider Russian hybrid attacks for backing Kyiv.

In August, Russian gains ticked upward in key sectors along the 1,200-km front line of Russia's 55-month wider war on Ukraine.

The coming winter could slow Russian advances as the trees lose their leaves and infantry infiltrators have nothing to conceal them from overhead drones. But for the next month or two, the trees will still have their leaves, and the infiltrators will still have their cover.

And that means, as fall wears into winter, Ukraine may lose yet more ground in the north and especially in Donbas region in the east, where Russia enjoys a substantial manpower and firepower advantage. "Russian forces still hold the operational initiative and are slowly capturing ... Donetsk Oblast as well as border zones in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts," mapper Thorkill warned.

The Russian gains belie a greater truth, however. In the middle of the fifth year of wider war, the situation on the ground only changes along the margins even as thousands die.

According to Thorkill's tally, the Russians occupied just under 220 square km of Ukrainian soil in August. That's 25% more territory than they captured in July. "The situation has deteriorated sharply in the Donbas in August," mapper Clément Molin explained.

To be fair, the Russians are advancing much more slowly than they did a year ago. "Compared to August 2025, Russian gains are down by nearly half," Molin noted. That's cold comfort to Ukrainian civilians and defenders in the areas where the Russians are still gaining ground, however. And the sheer proximity of the most aggressive Russian formations to the most vulnerable Ukrainian settlements means it might not take much more effort on the part of the Russians to turn these settlements into battlegrounds.

The Russians' main effort is still directed at the last big free cities in Donetsk. Inching forward at great cost from several directions, Russian forces are slowly closing a pincer around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk and the tens of thousands of civilians who still live in the adjacent cities.

Thorkill's map places the forwardmost Russian forces in Mykolaivka, just 4 km east of Sloviansk. This is the middle joint of the Russian pincer. The pincer's southern claw is a zone of disputed control stretching along the road between the ruins of the city of Kostiantynivka and the battleground town of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka.

If the Russians can march through Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, they can lay siege to the town of Druzhkivka, a few kilometers to the northwest. If they can capture Druzhkivka, they can turn north and assault Kramatorsk, a mere 6 km away.

Ukrainian counterattacks

The most fragile part of the claw is to the north. Bucking the overall trend of Russian gains in August, Ukrainian forces counterattacked in several sectors the same month. Most dramatically, a clutch of Ukrainian mechanized and air assault brigades extended a slow advance through the town of Nove, mostly cutting across a 100-square-km salient of Russian forces around 25 km northeast of Sloviansk.

The Nove counterattacks offer some hope that targeted Ukrainian action may slow the Russian march on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north. Meanwhile, a reshuffling of Ukrainian units south of Kramatorsk could improve Ukrainian defenses against an assault on the twin cities from the south.

As new Ukrainian commander-in-chief Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi gradually addresses some of the imbalances in the Ukrainian ground forces, certain key units are getting help. Most notably, the 425th Assault Regiment is now subordinate to the 1st Azov Corps, which is responsible for the defense of Kramatorsk.

Keenly aware that the Russians intend to slowly infiltrate front-line settlements with small teams of infantry rather than rushing them with masses of easily-droned armored vehicles, the 1st Azov Corps has assigned the aggressive 425th Assault Regiment "to clear enemy infiltrators from the brigades’ areas of defense," the corps stated.

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Glide bomb then infiltrate. This is Russia’s new way of war.

Infiltrators aren't the only problem, however. The Russians' favorite tactic combines small teams of infantry with massive aerial firepower in the form of precision-guided KAB glide bombs flung by supersonic Sukhoi Su-34 fighter bombers.

"Glide bombs hurt," Ukraine's 4th National Guard Brigade reported. "It's about 200 kg of explosives flying your way. And you can't really shoot them down like you can shoot down drones. They can collapse fortified buildings, bunkers, and entire urban blocks much more effectively than artillery."

After the dust settles from the glide bomb impacts, Russian infantry "infiltrate through the damaged areas, using the ruins for cover and concealment," the national guard brigade explained.

The same lack of long-range air defenses that exposes Ukrainian cities to relentless Russian bombardment also deprives front-line forces of protection from the Su-34s and their glide bombs. And so the Russians can keep bombing and keep infiltrating as long as the trees offer some concealment for the infantry.

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Ukraine’s secret counteroffensive takes the pressure off Sloviansk

The clock is ticking. The Russians will aim to position their forces for more direct assaults on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk no later than next year. The Ukrainians will aim to slow down the Russians, trading a little space for more time. Time Drapatyi may use to institute further reforms in the Ukrainian ground forces.

Zooming out and taking the long view, no one should expect major changes on the map of Russia's wider war as the fifth year of fighting grinds toward the sixth. Yes, the last two big free cities in the Donbas are in trouble. But "the overall situation remains unchanged since October 2023," Thorkill wrote.

The Russians slowly advance. The Ukrainians slowly fall back. And losses deepen on both sides.

Air-raid alerts covered a record share of working hours at shopping centers across Ukraine in August. Sirens ran for 21.8 percent of the hours malls were open, the Ukrainian Council of Shopping Centers reported.

For more than a fifth of the hours malls were open to serve customers, sirens instead sent staff and shoppers to shelters. The share has more than doubled in a year. The climb is related to Russia's escalating air campaign: Moscow ran a seven-day barrage of ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones against Kyiv into early September, the kind of assault that keeps sirens running through the business day.

Every tracked measure rose

The council considers four figures: the number of alerts, the number during mall working hours, the total alert duration, and the duration during working hours. All four climbed from July to August, it says.

Five regions bear the worst of it

The five regions with the most daytime alert time, between 10 a.m. and 9 p.m., barely changed over the month, the council says. Donetsk Oblast led at 82.0 percent, followed by Sumy at 76.4, Zaporizhzhia at 71.4, Kharkiv at 60.3, and Chernihiv at 40.1.

The sharpest monthly jump fell in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast.

Faster drones drive the sirens

Russia has switched to jet-powered drones that fly more than three times faster than the propeller Shaheds Ukraine spent three years learning to shoot down. The faster a drone reaches a city, the less time defenders have to catch it.

That is what fills the sirens. Alerts sound earlier and stay on longer, which is the shared council measure.

Ukraine races to answer them

Ukraine has four interceptor systems in field testing, built to take down jet drones, Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara said on 30 August. The country now wants to bring them to standard and build them in the thousands.

Until that layer works, every jet-drone raid costs Ukraine a long air alert that empties a shopping center.

Downtime piles up over years

Since the full-scale war began, the average Ukrainian mall has lost 166.8 working days to air-raid alerts, according to the report. August 2026 alone accounted for 6.4 of them.

That is more than eight working months of shuttered trading floors, and it is still climbing.

Russian losses reached one of the highest of the entire full-scale war in August, Ukraine's Defense Ministry says, citing General Staff data. Last month, Ukraine killed or wounded 42,020 invaders.

As its frontline losses climb, Russia is escalating its terror against Ukraine's civilians. Moscow uses large numbers of ballistic missiles and new jet-powered drones to do it. Russia opened its latest drone assault on 27 August, two days after CIA director John Ratcliffe arrived in Moscow, and has kept it up since.

For comparison, Russia lost 42,860 soldiers in July, 33,760 in May, and 39,290 in June, the ministry says.

Ukraine takes another step toward its goal

Ukraine's Defense Ministry states that effectively destroying Russian manpower and logistics is among its priorities, so that Russia's losses reach a level that forces it to abandon its plans of conquest.

"August's losses for the Russian army were another step toward reaching that goal," the Defense Ministry says.

Ukraine began its logistics lockdown late this May. It is a coordinated campaign to scale up medium-range drone strikes against Russian supply convoys, depots, command nodes, and air-defense systems 20 to 200 kilometers behind the front.

Russia loses more than men

Ukraine's Defense Forces also struck 13,835 vehicles and fuel tankers in August.

Over the month they hit an estimated:

• 89 tanks;
• 197 armored combat vehicles.
• On top of that, 1,827 Russian artillery systems were destroyed or disabled.

"Inflicting such losses systematically raises the cost of continuing the war for Russia and forces it to spend ever more resources replacing manpower, equipment, and weapons," the ministry says.

How does Russia answer the losses?

Ukraine's Office of the President has said Russia is preparing an additional mobilization wave in 2026–2027, aiming to draft 300,000 people this year and 300,000 next. Those figures are a response to the steady rise in frontline losses, the office adds.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin called that information "nonsense" after the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek.

At the same time, legal-aid organizations report a covert mobilization across Russia's regions and occupied territories. Over the past month and a half, residents of at least 17 Russian regions have complained of forcible detention, beatings, and coercion into signing contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry.

Desperately short of missiles for its roughly 10 Patriot air defense batteries, Ukraine has just a few options as colder weather looms—and the Russians prepare to fire even more hard-to-intercept Iskander ballistic missiles at Ukrainian cities and power plants.

The Iskander is a unique threat, and Ukraine is uniquely vulnerable. The Patriot is one of just a few systems that stands any chance of hitting an incoming Iskander as the Russian missile barrels in at six or seven times the speed of sound. And the Patriot is, or was, the most plentiful anti-ballistic interceptor. It usually takes two or three of them to bring down one Iskander.

Then came Iran. Coalition forces fired an average of 225 interceptors a day during the first four days of the war against Lockheed Martin's production rate of 1.7 a day, the Foreign Policy Research Institute calculated—a 132-to-one gap between use and manufacture. Lockheed built 620 Patriots in all of 2025. And every Patriot the Americans fire at an Iranian missile is a Patriot Ukraine won't be able to fire at a Russian missile.

Ukrainian batteries have so few missiles that air defenders can do little more than watch as the 3.8-ton Iskanders and other heavy Russian missiles barrel in. "This is a really heartbreaking sight when you have equipment but you're not able to intercept any missile," Dmytro, the chief engineer of Ukraine's Patriot fleet, told CNN. "Ballistic missiles are flying over your head and you are not able to do anything with it, and behind you, there are civilians." He first ran out of interceptors in December 2025.

Across the 39-day campaign, CSIS estimates 1,060 to 1,430 Patriots were expended—more than half the US prewar inventory. At Lockheed's rate, replacing them takes three years.

And a Patriot cannot be conjured. A single PAC-3 MSE takes about 24 months to build, its solid rocket motor 30. In January the Pentagon signed a seven-year deal for Lockheed to reach 2,000 Patriots a year—by 2030, by which point the Russo-Ukrainian war will be eight years old. Far too late to save Ukraine from the coming hard winter.

The Ukrainian air force has two other batteries that can intercept ballistic missiles, both French-Italian SAMP/Ts, and they are short of missiles too. France agreed in November to send eight next-generation SAMP/Ts over two years—a schedule, not a stockpile.

Winter looms

The interceptor crisis will only worsen as winter looms and the supply of electricity for residential heating once again becomes a matter of life and death for millions of Ukrainians. Iskanders "could hit all significant non-nuclear electricity generation," Jakub Janovsky, a Czech military analyst, explained to Euromaidan Press. The Kremlin has cut production of several other missile types—including, as Euromaidan Press reported this month, the Kinzhal—to pour more into the Iskander.

"I wanted to secure 300 missiles for the Patriot systems as part of the winter package. The request from our Air Force is for 360," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told journalists on 23 August, in remarks posted to X. "But when only 600 are produced a year, 360 is not easy to obtain." He has asked Washington for 5% or 10% of the US stockpile, and says Ukraine will pay. By his own account it holds about 1%.

What are Ukraine's non-Patriot options?

Its own ballistic interceptor

Frantic for air defenses, Ukraine is developing its own. In May, Kyiv munitions-maker Fire Point unveiled Freya, a pan-European anti-ballistic project built around the FP-7.x—a 7.25-m composite interceptor derived from the company's FP-7 surface-to-surface missile. Cued by European radars and guided in the final moments by an infrared seeker from Germany's Diehl Defence, it is meant to cost around $700,000 a shot against a Patriot's $3.8 million.

Fire Point had run at least five tests by the end of July, and co-founder Denys Shtilerman told the Financial Times mass production could begin as early as this month. But the first attempt at intercepting an actual ballistic target is planned for around July 2027—a winter away, and then some. Infrared guidance is also reckoned less reliable than radar, since spoofing can mislead the seeker.

Sanctions on the Iskander supply chain

Sanctions may seem attractive, and there is a narrow chokepoint. Ammonium perchlorate makes up 45% to 52% of the Iskander's solid fuel, and Russia has exactly one plant that makes it—the state-owned ANOSIT—according to the Economic Security Council of Ukraine.

That plant depends on imported sodium chlorate, a chemical Russia lost the ability to make when the USSR collapsed. Russia bought more than $40 million of it in 2024 and the first half of 2025, 61% from China and most of the rest from the Farg'onaazot chemical plant in Uzbekistan. The largest Russian importer, Pioneer Trade, sells on to firms that supply the Iskander's designer, its cluster-warhead maker, and the Votkinsk plant that builds the missile.

But Russia gets around sanctions by buying through third parties. And while the European Union already restricts the export of sodium chlorate to Russia, neither Farg'onaazot nor any of the Russian importers moving it is under blocking sanctions. Even where the bans hold, they just "make things more costly and less convenient," Janovsky told Euromaidan Press. "They can't stop things from happening if the other side really wants to do something."

Deep strikes against the Iskander supply chain

Ukraine has already tried this one. The main Iskander factory is in Votkinsk, 1,400 km from the border, and on the night of 20–21 February Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missiles hit it. Zelenskyy said every missile launched reached the plant. Satellite imagery confirmed damage to a workshop where Iskanders and Oreshniks are assembled; local officials reported two shops damaged and 11 people injured.

Iskander production rose anyway. So the question is not whether Ukraine can reach Votkinsk—it can, and did—but whether it can launch enough munitions at once to inflict damage that lasts. "Ukraine can try a massive saturation strike with hundreds of drones and dozens of cruise missiles to overwhelm local defenses and wreck enough of the factory complex to at least temporarily disable the production," Janovsky said. That might take essentially the entire Ukrainian deep strike force—and if it failed, Russian industry would get a months-long reprieve.

Kill the launchers before they shoot

This is the hardest one. Russian crews keep their Iskander launchers 140 to 150 km behind the front line, beyond the reach of Ukraine's HIMARS, and move them to firing positions along forest roads—sometimes for five hours—to stay out of satellite view. Once in position, a launcher needs about 16 minutes to send its first missile and four for the second, then it leaves. Twenty minutes, in the open, somewhere in a forest, a hundred and fifty kilometers away.

Ukraine is trying anyway. On 23 August, Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces had struck an Iskander launcher near the border, and described a dedicated program to hunt the launch sites. Euromaidan Press could not independently verify the strike. He was explicit about why the program exists. "When our anti-ballistic missile stocks are at a minimum, there is another tactic," he said. "It is more difficult, and we developed it."

All options but one arrive after the cold

Unable to shoot down all the Iskanders, Ukraine may have no choice but try everything all at once: sanction the suppliers, attack the supply chain, hunt the launchers, and scurry to deploy homemade interceptors. All while continuing to beg for every available Patriot.

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Ukraine may have just lost its first Swedish assault boat—to a Russian jet drone

Ukraine secret eastern counteroffensive seems to have been even more successful than some observers reported. It's possible that, in the sector just north of the town of Lyman in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast, the Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps is just a few kilometers short of encircling two Russian regiments.

That doesn't mean the Russian units can't escape. After all, there isn't a contiguous line of Ukrainian forces—nor a contiguous line of Russian forces for that matter—anywhere along the 1,200-km disputed gray zone that threads across eastern and southern Ukraine.

But the closing pincer around elements of the Russian 2nd and 144th Motor Rifle Divisions could strain the Russians' logistics and compel the Russians to reconsolidate in order to preserve their combat power—by retreating east. That would take a lot of pressure off Lyman and, by extension, also take a lot of pressure off Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the last two big free cities in Donetsk.

Lyman, which lies 15 km northeast of Sloviansk—the northernmost of the free cities—is the main obstacle between at least six Russian regiments and Sloviansk. The Russians have been inching toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from several directions for months now, racing against the coming winter to position forces for a possible siege of the twin cities next year. Winter in Ukraine punishes any attacker by depriving them of the leafy tree canopy that can conceal infiltrating troops during warmer months.

According to the most recent map from analyst and mapper Thorkill, one of the more reliable observers of unit-level action in Ukraine, the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade is just a few kilometers away from linking up with the 60th Mechanized Brigade in or around the village of Kolodyazi.

Galloping advance

If true, that means the 3rd Assault Brigade and adjacent units from the 3rd Army Corps have carried out one of the more successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in memory. In April they first exploited gaps in Russian defenses north of the village of Nove. In May and June they advanced toward the village. In July they captured it.

After that, the attacking Ukrainians kept pushing south into the right flank of a 10-km-by-10-km salient that advancing Russian regiments created as they maneuvered around Lyman from the north, aiming to surround the town instead of directly assaulting it on their way toward Sloviansk.

Leaving their flank exposed, the Russians trying to encircle Lyman found themselves at risk of encirclement, instead. If the 3rd Assault Brigade or 60th Mechanized Brigade—together possessing thousands of troops, on paper—can march through Kolodyazi, they will have closed a ring of loose Ukrainian control around at least two Russian regiments, also with potentially thousands of troops.

Emphasis on loose control. Again, there aren't enough Ukrainian forces on the ground north of Lyman to prevent any "encircled" Russians from retreating back to the east. But that retreat would represent a major victory for the Ukrainian defenders north and east of Sloviansk. "The fall of this salient [north of Lyman] would significantly delay the fall of Lyman," analyst and mapper AMK Mapping predicted.

No one expects the Russians to halt their offensive toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. But in potentially taking two steps forward and one step back in their northerly march on the free cities, the Russians sacrifice time. Time the Ukrainians can use to stiffen their defenses in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and evacuate more of the tens of thousands of civilians who remain in the cities despite the constant danger from Russian drones and bombs.

The possible extent of the Ukrainian gains north of Lyman—a 10-km march since April—is impressive given Russia's overall advantage in manpower and firepower in the east. Equally impressive is the operational security, or OPSEC, that cloaked the offensive until now. Sure, there were a few videos of action around Nove that hinted at a major Ukrainian action.

But the units involved exercised surprising discipline, and prevented too much information from leaking. "Someone in the 3rd Corps responsible for [OPSEC] is actually trying to do their job diligently and has quite effectively cut off information," Thorkill noted. The secrecy may have facilitated the Ukrainian advance by delaying any sense of panic among the Russian commanders who are responsible for reinforcing the Lyman salient, but who also tend to ignore bad news as long as possible because they know it could reflect poorly on them.

News of the counteroffensive is now available for all to see, even if official Ukrainian sources have yet to confirm it. That may mean time is running out for the 3rd Army Corps to close its pincer before the Russians retreat or reinforce. AMK Mapping has already seen some evidence of a "partial withdrawal from the most vulnerable positions in the salient.

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Can Ukrainian forces save Sloviansk and Kramatorsk?

Russian forces are fighting against time to close a pincer around the last free cities in eastern Ukraine. The deadline: the coming winter, which will strip the leaves from the trees and leave any attacking force exposed to overhead surveillance and attack.

But in one key sector, Ukrainian forces are spoiling the coordinated Russian operation to partially surround Sloviansk and neighboring Kramatorsk. With admirable operational security, or OPSEC, a clutch of Ukrainian brigades under the 3rd Army Corps hasn't just blunted the advance of the Russian Center Group of Forces—it has pushed the Russians back.

This Ukrainian counterattack along the axis through the town of Lyman, ongoing since May, has largely escaped widespread notice. Yes, there is some scant video evidence of Ukrainian attacks. And yes, a few analysts have adjusted their maps to account for apparent Ukrainian advances, especially in the direction of Nove, a Russian-occupied village 15 km north of Lyman, which itself lies 15 km north of Sloviansk.

But for the most part, Ukrainian and Russian sources have avoided talking about Lyman. "The Ukrainians kept a good level of OPSEC and the Russians have been reluctant to publish videos from these areas" depicting their retreats, analyst and mapper Clément Molin noted in June, just a few weeks after the Ukrainians attacked toward Nove.

Molin, for one, expects the OPSEC to lift in the coming days. "By the end of the month, we should have an official update on the good results of a Ukrainian offensive that has largely remained secret," he wrote on Monday.

April offensive

The Ukrainians' limited counteroffensive around Lyman apparently kicked off on in mid-April. One of the first attacks that left any real evidence occurred on 22 May, when a small Ukrainian mechanized force—perhaps from the 60th or 66th Mechanized Brigade, the 77th Air Assault Brigade, or the Presidential Brigade—attacked in armored trucks and M-113, Stryker, and BTR-4 armored personnel carriers. Heavy bomber drones flew top cover.

The Russian 144th Motor Rifle Division fought back with its own drones. Interceptor drones took aim at the bombers. First-person-view and heavy bomber drones blasted at least one BTR-4, hitting it before and after it dropped off its infantry passengers. Drones struck some of the disembarked Ukrainian infantry.

How many Ukrainian troops survived and entrenched in new positions on 22 May is unclear. Regardless, the Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps wasn't done with Nove. Attacks continued. And sometime after the 22 May assault on Nove, "the Ukrainians managed to consolidate their gains," Molin concluded after scrutinizing a few videos and some satellite imagery.

By early July, Ukrainian forces had succeeded in "operationally encircl[ing] the Russian forces defending the village of Nove," according to analyst and mapper Thorkill. "Fierce fighting is currently underway to expel the Russians from that locality," Thorkill reported at the time.

The aim of the Ukrainian counterattacks is obvious. The 3rd Army Corps intends to put pressure on the northern right flank of 10 km-by-10-km salient jutting into the battleground north of Lyman. The Russian 144th Motor Rifle Division has been pouring troops into the salient, clearly intending to surround and isolate Lyman instead of directly assaulting it—all in order to clear a path toward Sloviansk.

Salients are risky for both sides, however. The farther the Russians extend their Lyman salient, the more exposed they are on their flanks. The Ukrainians know this. And even if the 3rd Army Corps can't fully cut across the salient in order to surround the Russians inside of it, the corps can at least take advantage of the salient's exposed flanks.

Capturing Nove, on the very northern edge of the salient, could allow the Ukrainians to bring to bear more artillery and drones on the Russians south of Nove. The 3rd Army Corps doesn't have to fully encircle the Russian troops closest to Lyman in order to hammer them with withering firepower.

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Ukraine’s quiet counteroffensive took 745 square km. Russia’s dead Starlink is how

Just how successful the 3rd Army Corps has been in its local counteroffensive could become clearer very soon. That won't spell lasting relief for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, however. Fighting against the clock as summer begins turning into fall and then winter, the Russians are slowly advancing toward the twin cities from several directions.

The siege of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk is coming. Perhaps not this year, but surely by 2027. To fully safeguard the twin cities, the Ukrainians would need to duplicate their success north of Lyman along several other directions.

That's a big ask of a Ukrainian force that's overall still outnumbered and outgunned.