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Trump Gives Putin a Hand in Russia’s Economic War With Ukraine

President Trump is moving to buy Russian diesel while also pressuring Ukraine to halt attacks on refineries, a lifeblood of Moscow’s war machine.

© Reuters

Smoke rising from fires at an oil refinery after what the authorities said was a Ukrainian drone strike in Moscow last month.
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Deals with dictators lead to hell: Estonia’s PM urges Europe to help Ukraine destroy Russia’s refineries after Washington eased sanctions on diesel

estonian capital allocates € 200000 ukrainian cities development view tallinn estonia tallinnee city introduces program supporting municipalities aid expertise sharing eu integration initiatives estonia's launched new cooperation support 2025 city's

Estonia’s answer to the US-Russia diesel agreement: deals with dictators lead to hell. Prime Minister Kristen Michal wants the European Council to discuss giving Ukraine more aid so it can destroy Russia’s oil refineries, after sharply criticizing the US decision to strike a diesel deal with Russia, ERR reports.

Washington has eased sanctions on Russian diesel, a move Ukraine says funds a war that has killed more than 80 Ukrainian civilians in two days. Estonia’s answer is to go the opposite way and help Ukraine hit the source of that fuel, the refineries, harder.

"It is worth discussing in Estonia and at the European Council next week whether we can quickly contribute more to Ukraine so they can blast Russia's oil refineries to smithereens," Michal says.

He casts the US deal as a historic error. Innocent people are being killed for gas and fuel money, Michal warns, saying that the promised fuel may never arrive. For years, the US urged allies to drop Russian fuel, and Estonia did, so cutting Moscow’s revenue must continue, not reverse, he adds.

Mihkelson: Russia's strategic goals remain unchanged

Meanwhile, Marko Mihkelson, chair of the Riigikogu Foreign Affairs Committee, says that Russia's strategic objectives remain the same as they were before: to rebuild its empire, beginning with the subjugation of Ukraine, and to dismantle the Euro-Atlantic system of collective defense.

"That is why European allies still have only one way to prevent this war of aggression from spreading: to do everything possible to ensure that Russia’s strategic objectives fail and that the imperial wars launched by the Kremlin end in defeat," he says.

This clear strategic objective should also serve US interests, he continues, adding that "Russia’s long-standing ambition, pursued in concert with China and Iran, to undermine America’s global leadership is entering a decisive phase."

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Rebuking Ukraine Over Oil Strikes, Trump Says It Should ‘Get a New President’

Hours after President Trump said the United States would buy Russian diesel, the Kremlin said there would be no immediate resumption of discussions to end the war.

© Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times

President Trump at a campaign rally in Syracuse, N.Y., on Friday. His announcement that the United States would buy Russian diesel was followed by the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel exports.
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Russia sells cheaper fuel abroad and pays to keep its own pumps running amid Ukraine’s refinery strikes, but crude money still flows

ukraine says its strikes have knocked out 51% russia's oil refining capacity · post flames saratov refinery after reported ukrainian drone strike 2 2026 image_2026-08-02_14-32-39 news reports

Russia's seaborne exports of refined oil products rose to a three-month high in September, but the growth came from cheaper fuel oil and naphtha as diesel shipments fell to their lowest in more than a decade, Bloomberg reported, citing Vortexa data. Russia kept diesel at home after Ukrainian refinery strikes and paid oil companies to supply its pumps, while high crude prices lifted its crude export earnings.

During the ongoing deep-strike campaign, Ukraine's long-range drones have knocked out more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity, Kyiv says, and Russia's budget oil revenues are falling even as it raises war spending. High global crude prices are softening that blow.

Cheaper fuel out

Total seaborne product exports reached about 1.17 million barrels a day in September. Fuel oil shipments rose 6% to about 613,000 barrels a day, the highest since April. Naphtha, a feedstock for petrochemicals, jumped 35% to 363,000 barrels a day. Exports of refinery feedstocks, including vacuum gasoil, rose to about 32,000 barrels a day, according to Bloomberg.

The trade has moved north. Almost 80% of fuel oil cargoes left from Baltic ports, and naphtha loadings there rose almost 50% as Ukrainian attacks disrupted Black Sea infrastructure. In September, Ukraine reported hitting an oil terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia's main Black Sea oil port—one in a string of attacks on Russia's Black Sea ports and oil sites.

more than 500 drones moscow’s count kh-101 fuel plant second yandex data center far-north refinery hit · post smoke over ukhta komi republic after reported drone attack lukoil 9 2026
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More than 500 drones by Moscow’s count: Kh-101 fuel plant, second Yandex data center, and a far-north refinery hit

Diesel kept at home

Diesel and gasoil exports fell 28% to 144,000 barrels a day, the lowest monthly volume in Vortexa data going back more than a decade. Russia has restricted diesel exports to protect domestic supply after Ukrainian attacks on its refineries. Drones kept hitting them into October, from a Lukoil refinery in Volgograd to Gazprom's Salavat complex in Bashkortostan.

In September, Russia paid oil companies the biggest subsidy in more than four years to keep road fuel on the domestic market. It also imported about 350,000 tonnes of motor fuel by sea, mostly gasoline from India, Morocco, and Türkiye, Reuters calculations showed. Officials are considering letting some producers resume diesel exports in October to avoid overstocking, according to Interfax.

The diesel squeeze has reached the White House. US President Donald Trump stated on 30 September that diesel was hurt "not by the Middle East, but by what's going on in Russia, because those diesel refineries are being knocked out at a pretty alarming rate."

Crude carries the revenue

Russia's crude exports reached about 3.99 million barrels a day in the week to 27 September, and the estimated value of its seaborne crude shipments neared its highest since the full-scale invasion began, Bloomberg reported. Brent crude traded at about $102.60 a barrel on 9 October, according to Trading Economics data.

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Drone attack forces Yandex to shut down its data center on the grounds of a sanctioned Russian machine-tool plant

Smoke over Salavat following an attack on the night of October 8.

A drone attack overnight on 8 October caused a fire that hit part of Yandex's data center in Sasovo, Ryazan Oblast, about 580 km from Ukraine, and the site is fully stopped, the Russian tech company told Russian media. The data center sits on the grounds of Sasta, a sanctioned machine-tool plant, Russian outlet Astra said, citing Wikimapia data. Astra's OSINT analyst found from eyewitness footage that the fire hit the plant.

Since late September, Russia has been striking data centers in Kyiv that keep Ukraine's internet and online services running. Now a drone attack has stopped one of the data centers that Russia's largest tech company relies on.

Fires reported at a refinery in Salavat and a machine-tool plant in Sasovo after overnight attacks on 8 October 2026.
Fires reported at a refinery in Salavat and a machine-tool plant in Sasovo after overnight attacks on 8 October 2026. Map: Euromaidan Press

Yandex counts the damage

Yandex warned that some services may be unavailable, while its core services kept running and no one was hurt. Ryazan Oblast Governor Pavel Malkov claimed two drones were downed, a roof caught fire at an enterprise in the Sasovo district, and windows were blown out in several homes.

The power failure took down a wide range of Yandex Cloud infrastructure, including computing capacity, networks, data storage, databases, Kubernetes, cloud services, AI, and security and monitoring systems, Ukrainian outlet ZN.ua reported, citing Exilenova+.

Ukrainian monitoring channel Exilenova+ reported that the plant was hit, without naming an attacker. The channel said Sasta, which claims a place on Russia's register of defense-industry companies, makes computer-controlled machine tools, including five-axis machining centers, and previously supplied the Tactical Missiles Corporation (KTRV) and Roscosmos. The plant's value to the arms industry lies in machines that cut precision parts, not in finished weapons, the channel said.

Citing Exilenova+, Militarnyi reported that Ukraine's Defense Forces hit the plant. It also linked Sasta to Iskander missile supply chains. No source has said whether the plant or the data center was the target, and no Ukrainian official has claimed the Sasovo strike. Sasta has been under US sanctions since November 2023, UK sanctions since February 2024, and Ukrainian sanctions since April 2025, a sanctions database shows.

Salavat: Kyiv reports a hit

Ukrainian forces hit the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat complex in Bashkortostan, about 1,380 km from the front line, causing a fire, Ukraine's General Staff said. It said the complex processes up to 10 million metric tons of hydrocarbons a year and serves Russia's armed forces. Its key unit, the ELOU-AVT-6 primary oil refining unit launched in 2012, can process 6 million metric tons a year, Militarnyi reported. Astra's analyst placed the fire a few kilometers outside Salavat, possibly near the refinery.

Salavat oil refinery moment of attack pic.twitter.com/bUxuRshSK1

— Exilenova+ (@Exilenova_plus) October 8, 2026

Salavat Mayor Marat Zagidullin claimed that debris from several drones fell in the industrial zone that morning and started a fire.

"The enterprise continues to work," he said.

Astra noted earlier hits on the complex on 24 September 2025, on 14 July 2026, when refining fully stopped, and on 13 August 2026.

Russia's strikes on Ukraine's data centers

Russia has repeatedly hit data centers in Kyiv since 23 September. Strikes hit the COSMONOVA data center twice, the second time knocking it out, and the Parkovyi data center stopped working completely on 1 October after a series of strikes. In early October, Russia destroyed the dline.ua data center in Kyiv.

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Russia’s war against Ukraine sends the bill to its own companies: bond defaults head for a 17-year high

russia facing record number corporate defaults second time decade one main causes being same—waging war against ukraine · post russian rubles tsn money news ukrainian reports

More than 50 Russian companies could default on their bonds this year, the most since 2009, a rating-agency analyst told Russian newspaper Izvestia, which reported it on 6 October.

Russia's wartime economy is straining under high interest rates, and the budget is too: the 2026 deficit has nearly doubled from the earlier forecast to a record $88 billion, with more deficits planned for the next three years as Moscow raises taxes to fund the war and plans its biggest defense budget since the full-scale invasion began.

A default is a situation in which a company cannot make promised interest payments to investors on time or repay borrowed money. If a payment is not made by the agreed deadline, the company becomes delinquent, which under certain conditions is recognized as a default.

So far this year, 20 companies have defaulted for the first time, compared with 24 in all of 2025, said Mikhail Nikonov of the Expert RA rating agency. Most of the companies that missed payments are small issuers of high-yield bonds, Izvestia reported.

In 2026, Russian companies have missed payments totaling 41 billion rubles (about $490 million), compared with 34 billion rubles (about $410 million) the previous year, according to investment bank Sinara.

Russia faces a new wave of corporate defaults

By the end of 2026, the number of Russian companies unable to service their ruble-denominated debt on time could reach 40–50, the highest level since 2010, said Pavel Zholobov, junior managing director at the NRA rating agency.

The number of bond defaults in 2026 has already reached its highest level in a decade, Zholobov said. Similar figures were recorded in the mid-2010s: in 2014, 35 companies missed payments; in 2015, 52 did so; and in 2016, there were 44 issuers. This occurred in part after Western sanctions were imposed on Russia over its annexation of Crimea and its war in Donbas, as well as amid a halving of oil prices and a sharp weakening of the ruble.

So-called "little green men" (the Russian occupation troops comprised special forces who removed insignia, wear face masks to prevent identification and call themselves a "Crimean self-defense force") surround a Ukrainian military base in Perevalne, Crimea, during the Russian annexation of the peninsula in February-March 2014.
So-called "little green men" (the Russian occupation troops comprised special forces who removed insignia, wear face masks to prevent identification and call themselves a "Crimean self-defense force") surround a Ukrainian military base in Perevalne, Crimea, during the Russian annexation of the peninsula in February-March 2014.

There were more defaults only in 2009. At the time, amid the fallout from the global financial crisis, more than 100 issuers faced payment problems, while the volume of distressed debt reached nearly 200 billion rubles, Zholobov noted.

High interest rates put pressure on companies

This time, the main reason for companies' difficulties in making bond payments has been the prolonged period of high interest rates, which has continued since 2023. Companies are raising financing at high interest rates but are unable to refinance their debt on more favorable terms, explained Ekaterina Sidorova, head of the Foreign Exchange, Commodities and Debt Markets Department at SberCIB Investment Research.

At the same time, the situation does not yet resemble a systemic debt crisis: defaults are primarily being recorded among companies with low credit ratings and high debt burdens, Sidorova said.

If a company fails to repay bond debt, it is given 10 business days to meet its obligations. If it fails to do so, the company may offer investors a restructuring—for example, by postponing payments in exchange for a higher interest rate.

The number of defaults will remain high in 2027, Sidorova believes.

High interest rates were a response to accelerating inflation in Russia. Domestic demand was outpacing production, Russia's Central Bank said in October 2023. Sanctions over the war and rising defense spending had also hit the economy and the ruble, which had lost about 25% against the dollar that year. The bank raised its key rate from 7.5% in the first half of 2023 to 15% by the fall.

Ukraine targets Russia's oil industry to weaken its war economy

Ukraine is also seeking to weaken Russia's economy as part of efforts to reduce its ability to finance the war. In particular, Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara said strikes on oil refineries are aimed at "bleeding the Russian war machine" and destroying its military and economic potential. According to the ministry, the attacks have knocked out more than 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity.

In the first half of July, Russian oil refineries processed about 3.9 million barrels of oil per day—the lowest level since March 2005. Due to the production cuts, Moscow was also forced to restrict fuel exports.

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Ukraine says its strikes have knocked out more than 51% of Russia’s oil refining capacity

ukraine says its strikes have knocked out 51% russia's oil refining capacity · post flames saratov refinery after reported ukrainian drone strike 2 2026 image_2026-08-02_14-32-39 news reports

Ukraine's Security and Defense Forces have "put out of action" more than 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity through recent long-range strikes, Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara said in a statement published by the Defense Ministry on 4 October. These "carefully thought-out" actions were aimed at "bleeding the Russian war machine" and "destroying its military-economic potential," Khmara said.

Ukraine treats Russia's refineries as a priority target because their revenue helps fund the war. Even Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on 1 October that the strikes had cost Russia 1% of its GDP and had "partially" achieved their goal, Interfax reported.

The ministry did not publish how it calculated the figure.

"The consequences of Ukrainian operations are not always visible immediately. But the effect accumulates and produces a tangible result," the ministry said.

Ukrainian deep strikes continue to bring the war to Russian territory

The ministry named eight recently struck facilities, among others. One of them is the Moscow Oil Refinery, which Ukraine targeted in a massive drone attack on the night of 20 September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. The refinery, operated by Gazprom Neft in Moscow's Kapotnya district, supplies about 40% of Moscow's fuel market and 70% of the Moscow region's demand for gasoline and aviation fuel, according to Russian news Telegram channel Astra.

Another was KINEF, which Ukraine has attacked repeatedly. It is Russia's second-largest oil refinery by capacity, and the Ukrainian military struck it on the night of 30 August, setting off a fire at the facility.

Fire reported at Russia's Kirishi/KINEF oil refinery following an overnight Ukrainian drone attack, 29–30 August 2026. Photo: Exilenova+
Fire reported at Russia's Kirishi/KINEF oil refinery following an overnight Ukrainian drone attack, 29–30 August 2026. Photo: Exilenova+

The ministry also named the Yaroslavl, Perm, Ilsky, Saratov, and Syzran refineries and the Ust-Luga port complex.

Ukraine triples production and procurement of long-range drones—and this is not the end

This year, Ukraine has tripled the production and procurement of long-range attack drones, the ministry said.

"This is not the limit. We will continue to scale up deep-strike capabilities," the statement said.

International cooperation is part of that push. Berlin will fund the production of additional DeepStrike-class long-range drones in Ukraine, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said after a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group on 15 April. The sides also agreed to jointly develop and produce a medium- and long-range drone system.

Ukraine and Germany also signed an agreement on the joint production of Bars drones, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on 8 July. The Bars' modular design allows it to be used for deep strikes, among other missions.

Bars jet-powered drone. Photo: Museum of the Russian-Ukrainian War
Bars jet-powered drone. Photo: Museum of the Russian-Ukrainian War

Oil refinery output has fallen

Russian refineries cut crude oil processing by 14% in the first nine months of the year compared with the same period last year amid Ukrainian drone attacks, according to calculations by two industry sources.

Experts' estimates of the decline differ widely. In August, Serhii Vakulenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center put it at 25–28%, while Russian economic commentator Vyacheslav Shiryaev put it at 65–70%, according to Defense-Aerospace.

Fuel production data give a more concrete picture: in July, Russia's gasoline and diesel output was about a quarter to a third lower than in March 2026, the outlet reported.

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Drones hit Russia’s Volgograd and Samara overnight—fires near a Lukoil refinery, a chemical plant, and likely Europe’s largest oil tank farm in Samara

drones hit russia's volgograd samara overnight—fires near lukoil refinery chemical plant likely europe's largest oil tank farm · post fire area kaustik russia 2 2026 пожежа ймовірно в районі волгоградського

Drones attacked Russia's Volgograd and Samara oblasts overnight on 2 October, sparking fires near an oil refinery, a chemical plant, and likely a major oil-transport hub, Ukrainian and Russian monitoring channels reported. Regional officials acknowledged the attack but not the fires, and the extent of any damage remains unconfirmed.

Explosions and a glow over Volgograd's refinery district

Explosions sounded for a long time in Volgograd itself and around the refinery's industrial zone, Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ wrote.

Residents reported drones flying over and blasts "in all districts of the city," and complained that no air raid alert sounded, Russian news Telegram channel Astra reported. Its OSINT analysis of eyewitness footage placed the glow near the Lukoil refinery and the neighboring Kaustik chemical plant, though the available videos do not show which facility caught fire.

Volgograd Oblast Governor Andrei Bocharov claimed a "massive drone attack" on the region's industrial infrastructure. He mentioned a fire in an apartment building and one person hospitalized, but no fires at plants.

Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka is one of Russia's largest refineries. It processes 14.8–15.7 million tons of crude a year, about 5% of Russia's refining, and makes gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, and bitumen, according to Astra.

lukoil’s norsi refinery in kstovo, nizhny novgorod oblast
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Drones have hit the plant repeatedly. In May 2025, strikes damaged its ELOU-AVT-1 and ELOU-AVT-6 primary processing units. A 29 May 2026 strike halted production at the plant, about 500 km east of the war zone, Ukraine's General Staff said. On 31 July, drones set the refinery ablaze again, and Astra reported the AVT-1 and AVT-6 units stopped.

Kaustik sits in Volgograd's southern Krasnoarmeysky district. It is one of the region's leading plants and makes basic chemicals with dual civilian and military use, Astra wrote. The outlet called that output critical to Russia's military industry. The plant runs chlor-alkali production built on salt electrolysis. It makes hydrochloric acid, plastics, synthetic resins, and industrial gases, according to OSINT-Varta. Such products can serve military industry too, including polymer parts and protective coatings for hardware, Militarnyi noted.

Europe's largest tank farm likely on fire near Samara

Explosions also rocked Samara, with an especially strong one around 06:30, Astra reported. Its OSINT expert linked reader photos to a fire at the Samara linear production dispatch station in the settlement of Prosvet.

Ukrainian monitoring channel Supernova+ shared video of thick black smoke on the horizon and reported a fire at the station. Exilenova+ reported explosions in Samara followed by a fire.

The station belongs to Transneft, Russia's state pipeline operator. It covers more than 216 hectares and holds 71 tanks with a combined capacity of over 1.6 million m³ of crude. Astra called it Europe's largest tank farm.

Four trunk pipelines converge there, carrying oil from Western Siberia, Tatarstan, Orenburg Oblast, and Kazakhstan. The station blends high- and low-sulfur crude into Urals, Russia's flagship export grade, according to Militarnyi.

Samara authorities did not comment on the fire. Mayor Ivan Noskov stated only that ground public transport was suspended. Samara Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev did not report an attack at all.

The station has been hit before. Operators of the 14th Regiment of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck it again overnight on 23 September 2025. On 21 April 2026, drones of the Security Service of Ukraine's Alfa special operations center hit it, reportedly damaging five crude tanks of about 20,000 m³ each.

one refinery night moscow ufa now samara—ukraine working through russia's fuel chain · post smoke plume burning kuibyshev stretching across samara skyline 22 2026 exilenova 5877644049043362820 ukraine news ukrainian reports
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Ukraine shut down this Samara refinery in June—now its drones are back, and both distillation units are burning again

Ukraine's long-range drones have already pushed Russia's fuel shortages into Central Asia, and Washington has pressed Kyiv to stop, so every hit on processing or export logistics tests how long oil can fund Moscow's war.

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Trump demanded Zelenskyy stop hitting Russian refineries—for the second time in a week

again trump presses zelenskyy stop russian refinery strikes · post ukrainian president volodymyr meets donald ankara türkiye 8 2026 presidentgovua ukraine news reports

US President Donald Trump repeatedly asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries during a phone call on 20 September, Axios reported, citing a person familiar with the conversation. The two leaders are due to meet in New York today, 22 September, during the UN General Assembly.

For Ukraine, the strikes are a way to disrupt the fuel supply supporting Russia's military. Trump is now linking the attacks to global diesel prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said disruptions to Russia's refining system following intensified Ukrainian attacks have compounded diesel supply losses.

Trump backed the strikes two months ago

At a NATO summit on 8 July, speaking alongside Zelenskyy, Trump said Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries could help end the war. "It's an escalation, but it's also an escalation that can help lead to an end," he said. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Ukraine's ability to strike deep into Russian territory was one of the changes in the war in recent months and said the escalation could create space for negotiations.

On 13 September, Trump called on Zelenskyy to stop the attacks.

"Mr. Zelenskyy has to do one thing: he has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia," Trump said. "There are plenty of other targets. Don't hit diesel fuel. That's hurting the world."

Trump added that the rise in prices was not caused by the Iran conflict. "This isn't done by the Middle East, this is done by what's happening with Russia and Ukraine," he said.

On 20 September, Trump raised the demand again in his call with Zelenskyy. "The word diesel came up many times" during the conversation, a person familiar with the call told Axios.

What is driving diesel prices

US diesel prices had reached $6.06 per gallon by 13 September, up from $3.71 a year earlier. The IEA said in June that global energy markets were contending with their largest supply disruption in history because of the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, though it also noted that a US-Iran agreement to reopen the strait had begun easing prices from their April peak. A Bipartisan Policy Center analysis attributed the diesel surge to the Iran conflict and did not address Ukrainian strikes.

Ukraine's refinery campaign has also disrupted Russian fuel production. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on 4 July that attacks had disabled 42.7% of Russia's oil-refining capacity. Russia's gasoline production fell an estimated 25% year-on-year in the week of 15–21 June, while Moscow has extended its ban on diesel exports through at least September.

Zelenskyy confirms Tuesday meeting

After the call, Zelenskyy said it had been "an important conversation" and that today's meeting "could change a lot." He said there was "diplomatic momentum" and that Ukraine was ready "to take really serious steps." He also said the call covered ideas for de-escalation and fundamental security issues including energy and food security.

Rustem Umerov, head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service and Kyiv's chief negotiator, told Axios that US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had helped with the peace talks, where the number of stumbling blocks had fallen from "dozens to essentially one or two key issues." Umerov was rebutting a Kyiv Independent report that Kyiv was frustrated with Witkoff, which he called false.

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Russia has warned its cities about every strike for years. During the heaviest raid yet, on election day, it left the sirens silent

Vladimir Putin voted in the presidential election in Russia

Russian authorities left residents in and around Moscow without air raid sirens or phone alerts during Ukraine's largest combined strike on Moscow Oblast, apparently to guard turnout at Russia's parliamentary elections, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said. The silence angered residents and even pro-war commentators as a major oil refinery burned.

For most of this war, Russia has handled strikes on its cities as a routine to be announced, warned about, and waited out. Withholding warnings during the heaviest raid yet, in the middle of a national vote, suggests authorities will trade residents' safety for the look of a calm election when a political milestone is on the line.

Sirens stayed off during the biggest raid

Ukraine hit strategic sites across the Moscow area overnight on 19-20 September, the last day of Russia's State Duma vote. Moscow Oblast officials did not switch on air alert sirens or send the SMS warnings they had used during far smaller attacks. They quietly restricted mobile service without major public notice. Ukraine struck oil and logistics targets, not polling stations, according to the experts, and authorities appeared to place high turnout above protecting civilians.

Moscow Oblast residents complained that no alert reached them, some posting on the Telegram channel of regional Governor Andrei Vorobyov before it closed comments. A prominent Kremlin-linked military blogger attacked the official response, saying it erodes public trust and that cutting mobile service does "not really help."

What the drones hit

Ukraine's General Staff reported striking the Gazpromneft-Moscow Oil Refinery in the city's Kapotnya district, one of Russia's largest plants, causing a large fire. Ukrainian manufacturer Fire Point said its FP-1 drones completely shut down the refinery, with all primary processing units damaged.

Governor Andrei Vorobyov claimed air defenses countered 249 drones across 17 municipal districts. The strike was part of Ukraine's widening campaign against the fuel sector funding Russia's war, with about a fifth of Russian refining capacity offline.

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A fifth of Russian refining sits idle, and the sector’s earnings still grew

refinery saratov two tatarstan pumping station bashkortostan — one night's russian oil target list · post smoke fire rise over russia after ukrainian drone strike 8 2026 saratov5075776523918314508 ukraine news

Russian oil refineries earned more in the first half of this year than in the same period a year earlier, even as Ukrainian drone strikes kept a fifth of the country's refining capacity out of action, The Moscow Times reported. Record wholesale prices and fast-growing payments from the federal budget have more than covered what the attacks and the repairs cost. Russian consumers are covering the rest at the pump.

Refineries turn Russian crude into the two things the war needs: fuel for the army, and billions in export earnings and taxes that help pay for it. That is why That is why Ukraine keeps hitting them with long-range drones, and why what those strikes do to Russian oil earnings matters more than how many plants are burning.

Where the profits come from

Russian refineries earned 938 billion rubles ($11.1 billion) in the first half of 2026, 16.2% more than a year earlier, according to the state statistics service Rosstat. Ukrainian drone strikes have put a fifth of the country's refining capacity out of action.

Two things produced that result, according to Promsvyazbank analyst Yekaterina Krylova: high wholesale prices on the SPIMEX commodity exchange, and a sharp increase in state fuel subsidies.

Wholesale prices took off in March, after the war in the Middle East began: light petroleum products have risen 37% since late February and diesel by a third, with July bringing record exchange prices of 82,600 rubles ($982) per tonne of AI-95 gasoline. Crude got cheaper for the refiners over the same stretch, as the ruble price of Urals oil peaked in spring and fell through the summer while the products made from it kept getting dearer.

A tall flame rises above an industrial facility in Novy Urengoy at night.
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The budget pays the difference, the country pays the bill

Russia's damper mechanism compensates oil companies for selling fuel cheaply at home rather than exporting it, and the payments grow as the gap between domestic and world prices widens.

The Finance Ministry paid out close to 350 billion rubles ($4.2 billion) a month in the second quarter, and 500 billion rubles ($5.9 billion) for July and August together. Krylova expects the subsidies and the prices together to widen net margins by 45% in the third quarter, to 35,000 rubles ($416) per tonne of gasoline.

Russia's retail prices tell the other half of the story. Gasoline has risen 21.2% since January and diesel 18.4%, well above Russian inflation. Budget money lets the majors, which own both the refineries and the filling-station chains, hold their own forecourt prices near inflation. Independent chains have no such cushion: they buy at the higher wholesale prices and sell dearer, which is how Russia has been squeezing them out of the market. For drivers, the crisis has been physical as well as financial, with rationing and dry pumps spreading across dozens of regions.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Russian President Vladimir Putin walk past an honor guard in Astana, Kazakhstan, on 27 November 2024.
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What the strikes have cost

Ukrainian drones have been hitting Russian refineries since 2024, and the campaign escalated sharply from August 2025, when strikes deep inside Russia became systematic. Russian refineries disclose none of their losses from it.

Ukraine's General Staff estimated the total damage to the Russian oil industry since August 2025 at $13.5 billion, in a count published in early July. The insurance broker Mains put direct losses to the oil and gas sector from drone strikes last year at more than 100 billion rubles ($1.2 billion), and above a trillion rubles once lost profit and indirect damage are counted.

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Ukrainian drone strike hits major oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai, HUR source claims

Ukrainian drone strike hits major oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai, HUR source claims

Long-range Ukrainian drones struck the Ilsky oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai on July 7, hitting one of the facility's technological workshops, a source in Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) told the Kyiv Independent.

Located roughly 500 kilometers (311 miles) from Ukrainian-controlled territory, the refinery is among the largest in southern Russia, producing over 6 million tons of fuel annually.

It is involved in the reception, storage, and processing of hydrocarbons and distributes refined products via road and rail. The refinery is part of Russia's military-industrial complex and plays a direct role in supporting Moscow's war effort, the source said.

The Russian regional operational headquarters claimed that "drone debris" fell on the oil refinery.

The strike marks a renewed wave of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, following a months-long pause since March. On July 1, Ukrainian drones struck the Saratovorgsintez oil refinery in Russia's Saratov Oblast.

Kyiv has targeted dozens of refineries, oil depots, and military-industrial sites since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. Winter drone attacks forced at least four Russian refineries to temporarily shut down.

This is the second known strike on the Ilsky refinery. Ukrainian drones, operated by the Security Service (SBU) and Special Operations Forces (SSO), previously targeted the facility on Feb. 17, causing a fire.

Krasnodar Krai, a strategic region along Russia's Black Sea coast, has increasingly come under Ukrainian drone attacks as Kyiv extends the range of its strikes deep into Russian territory.

HUR publishes Russian military order, claims proof of Moscow increasing military footprint in Armenia
HUR first made the claim on July 5, saying Russia was increasing its forces at the Gyumri base to exert greater influence in the South Caucasus and “destabilize the global security situation.”
Ukrainian drone strike hits major oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai, HUR source claimsThe Kyiv IndependentChris York
Ukrainian drone strike hits major oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai, HUR source claims
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'Important facility hit' — Ukraine attacks Russian oil refinery in Saratov Oblast, military says

'Important facility hit' — Ukraine attacks Russian oil refinery in Saratov Oblast, military says

Ukrainian drones struck the Saratovorgsintez oil refinery in Russia's Saratov Oblast, causing damage to the facility, Ukraine's General Staff reported on July 1.

"An important facility has been hit," the General Staff said via its official Telegram channel.

The Saratovorgsintez refinery and chemical plant, owned by Russian energy giant Lukoil, is located nearly 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) from Ukraine's border in the city of Saratov. The city hosts multiple strategic military and industrial sites.

The refinery was targeted to "reduce the enemy's offensive capabilities," the General Staff wrote.

"The occupiers use the capacity of this refinery to supply fuel and lubricants to Russian military units involved in the armed aggression against Ukraine."

The attack was a joint operation carried out by Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) and other military units, the General Staff said. A fire broke out at the site of the attack and damage to the refinery's technological installations has been confirmed. The full consequences of the strike are still being investigated.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.

The report is the latest in a series of announcements on July 1 about successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets. Earlier in the day, HUR released footage of Ukraine's UJ-26 drones, commonly known as Bober (Beavers), targeting high-value Russian air defenses and a fighter jet in occupied Crimea.

A source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent that Ukrainian drones struck a major Russian military plant in the city of Izhevsk, over 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) from the front lines.

Ukraine also hit a Russian command post in occupied Donetsk Oblast, according to the General Staff.

Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian drones strike Russian plant 1,300km from border, SBU source says
Key developments on July 1: * ‘With surgical precision’ — Ukrainian drones strike Russian plant 1,300km away, SBU source says * Russian missile strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast kills brigade commander, injures 30 people, Zelensky says * Ukrainian forces hit Russian command post in occupied Donetsk Oblast, General Staff says * Zelensky signs ratification of
'Important facility hit' — Ukraine attacks Russian oil refinery in Saratov Oblast, military saysThe Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk
'Important facility hit' — Ukraine attacks Russian oil refinery in Saratov Oblast, military says

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