Polls show US voters are deeply upset by high gas prices and are likely to punish Republicans in the midterms as a result

• How will Trump’s mass deportation agenda shape the US midterm elections? Our reporters answer your questions

With fewer than two weeks until the midterms, US voters are unlikely to see relief on one of this election cycle’s main issues: gas prices.

Airing up her car’s tires at a Speedway in Perrysburg, Ohio, Toledo resident Sharie Smith, 41, says soaring costs are having a direct impact on her life.

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© Photograph: Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images

Overall, economic sentiment for Trump is poor, but small businesses seem fairly confident, according to several surveys

There are 34m small businesses in the United States. They employ approximately half of the country’s workers and generate about half of the country’s GDP. They’re an important voting block. So how are they feeling about the economy as we head into November’s midterm elections? Overall, economic sentiment for Donald Trump is poor but small business – admittedly a diverse demographic that’s hard to poll – seems fairly confident. A number of recently published surveys and reports can help understand their mood.

Confidence is generally stable.

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© Photograph: JohnnyGreig/Getty Images

© Photograph: JohnnyGreig/Getty Images

© Photograph: JohnnyGreig/Getty Images

We’d like to hear about whether you feel like the US is in a recession and what you think signals such a downturn

Nearly two-thirds of Americans think the US is experiencing a recession, according to a new Harris Poll conducted for the Guardian. By the typical definition of a recession – when a country’s economic growth is in the negative for two consecutive quarters – the US is not experiencing one. Still, Americans are facing higher prices and a stagnant job market, which for many feels like a downturn.

We want to hear from Americans: do you feel like the US is experiencing a recession? What is your so-called personal “recession indicator”, or a signal in your everyday life that points to an incoming economic slump? It could be seen in your job or at your local grocery store, something you notice at your children’s school or out in your community. Tell us about it below.

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© Photograph: Nam Y Huh/AP

© Photograph: Nam Y Huh/AP

© Photograph: Nam Y Huh/AP

Voters’ opposition to the state of Trump’s economy is well established – despite his desperate attempts to deflect

• Tell us: what is your personal ‘recession indicator’?

It’s indisputable that the political polarization of our time has reduced (and confused) the influence of economic conditions on US elections.

In September of 2024, in the waning weeks of the Joe Biden presidency, 65% of Republicans believed the US economy was getting worse. About six months later, as Donald Trump launched a trade war on the rest of the world with his “liberation day” tariffs, the share of Republican pessimists had dropped to 33%.

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© Photograph: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

© Photograph: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

© Photograph: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

Nearly 61% believe country is in recession and 65% of independents say economy is worse, according to new Harris poll

• Tell us: what is your personal ‘recession indicator’?

With the midterm elections less than three weeks away, key voting groups including independents, rural voters and even some Republicans are increasingly disenchanted with Donald Trump’s economy, according to an exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian.

The majority of those surveyed were pessimistic about the economy, with three-quarters of Americans saying they are concerned about a recession while 61% wrongly believe that the US is already experiencing one. By its typical definition, the US is not currently experiencing a recession.

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© Photograph: Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images

© Photograph: Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images

© Photograph: Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images

Chip makers and tech investors such as Samsung and SoftBank plunge as potential interest rate hikes spook markets

• Business news – live updates

• Larry Elliott: the global economy is muddling through. But a storm is coming

An accelerating sell-off of AI-linked shares has hit global markets, as fears over rising inflation and future interest rate hikes spooked traders already wary of the heavily indebted sector.

South Korea’s benchmark Kospi 200 index, which is heavily skewed towards the companies that make memory chips, fell more than 8% overnight to a six-month closing low, triggering circuit breakers that brought trading to a halt at various points.

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© Photograph: Lee Jin-man/AP

© Photograph: Lee Jin-man/AP

© Photograph: Lee Jin-man/AP

Finance ministers gathering for the IMF annual meeting know the need for multilateral cooperation to deal with many crises. There is little chance of that

Not much has gone right for the global economy this year, and plenty has gone wrong. Two big regional wars are destabilising prices and supply chains everywhere. Businesses and consumers are feeling the effects of a serious energy shock. Rising inflation has made it a lot more expensive for governments to finance their debts. China and the US are at loggerheads over trade.

Yet, so far, the impact has been modest. It is something of a miracle that the finance ministers and central bank governors gathered for this year’s annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Bangkok are not having to deal with a full-blown crisis. This is not like the autumn of 2008, when the meetings took place during the worst of the global banking meltdown.

Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist

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© Illustration: Sébastien Thibault/The Guardian

© Illustration: Sébastien Thibault/The Guardian

© Illustration: Sébastien Thibault/The Guardian

Final inflation report before voters go to polls comes amid widespread anger over cost of living under Trump

• Send us your questions on how the US economy is shaping the midterm elections

Republicans are entering the midterm elections with the highest rate of inflation since the spring, according to a government report released on Wednesday.

US price increases reached an annual rate of 3.7% in September, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, up from 3.4% in August. This final inflation report before the pivotal midterm elections comes amid polls showing widespread dissatisfaction with the Trump administration over the cost of living.

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© Photograph: Patrick T Fallon/Bloomberg via Getty Images

© Photograph: Patrick T Fallon/Bloomberg via Getty Images

© Photograph: Patrick T Fallon/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Firms turning crude oil into the ‘workhorse’ fuel stand to gain most despite economic fallout from record prices

Days after Donald Trump announced a deal to import Russian diesel into the US in an effort to lower soaring pump prices, the world’s energy watchdog has warned that the global fuel shortage will drag into 2027.

Trump’s temporary sanctions reprieve was criticised for offering “too little, too late” to temper the sky high pump prices triggered by the shutdown of war-damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia – once the world’s second-largest diesel exporter behind the US.

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© Photograph: Martin Meissner/AP

© Photograph: Martin Meissner/AP

© Photograph: Martin Meissner/AP

The pre-midterm defenestration of ACA enrollees looks like political madness – but the president appears to believe hitting poor people might work for him

There is a manic quality to Donald Trump’s desperate dash to do something, anything, ahead of November’s midterm elections to convince beleaguered Americans that he can make the pressures his policies have imposed on their livelihoods go away.

The US president offered to lower barriers against beef imports to limit surging meat prices, only to consider backtracking under pressure from the cow lobby. He offered to stop diesel exports, only to find oil companies were not interested. He weakened fuel efficiency standards, claiming this would trim the price of a new car (and forgetting to point out it will also raise spending on gas.) In early October he started mailing $500 checks to nearly a million people touting his healthcare “wins”. Oh, and he promised adult Americans a $5,000 check if Republicans maintain control of Congress. That, too, will go nowhere.

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© Photograph: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

High valuations and debt put sector in danger, while fund also warns on government borrowing and cyber-attacks

• IMF warns global economy ‘could soon test the limits of resilience’

The threat of an AI share price crash rippling out across global markets is putting world financial stability at risk, the International Monetary fund has warned.

In its twice-yearly Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF highlighted the sky-high valuations for AI companies along with their increasing debt pile as one reason that risks in the system are “elevated”.

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© Photograph: Aly Song/Reuters

© Photograph: Aly Song/Reuters

© Photograph: Aly Song/Reuters

Analysts say fuel will take weeks to ship and quantity is too small to affect prices, while full deal is unlikely to be met given damage to Russian refineries

• Trump announces partial ceasefire but Zelenskyy says deal is ‘news to me’

Donald Trump’s deal with Vladimir Putin to temporarily lift sanctions on US imports of Russian diesel will have little “meaningful” effect on motorists and businesses in the US and overseas, energy and foreign policy analysts have predicted.

The US president infuriated Volodymyr Zelenskyy when he announced the deal on Friday, writing on Truth Social that the agreement with his Russia counterpart to supply millions of tonnes of diesel was essential to reduce fuel prices in the US, which have soared after his decision to go to war against Iran.

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© Photograph: Patrick T Fallon/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Patrick T Fallon/AFP/Getty Images

© Photograph: Patrick T Fallon/AFP/Getty Images

‘Even if AI supercharged the economy, its impact on the government’s finances would be muted’

Back through political history to the age of Ronald Reagan, Republicans have repeatedly promised the US public that tax cuts would pay for themselves, firing up economic growth and filling the government’s coffers.

The promise never really panned out. From the Gipper’s day on, the Republicans’ tax cuts inevitably increased the budget deficit. Despite its failure, though, the promise is back, coated in a fine new layer of artificial intelligence pixie dust. It will fail again.

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© Photograph: Alex Brandon/AP

© Photograph: Alex Brandon/AP

© Photograph: Alex Brandon/AP

The program would grant citizenship to people who make major investments in Argentina. Similar efforts have yielded significant income for small economies, but have also led to risks.

© Victor Moriyama for The New York Times