Voters’ opposition to the state of Trump’s economy is well established – despite his desperate attempts to deflect

• Tell us: what is your personal ‘recession indicator’?

It’s indisputable that the political polarization of our time has reduced (and confused) the influence of economic conditions on US elections.

In September of 2024, in the waning weeks of the Joe Biden presidency, 65% of Republicans believed the US economy was getting worse. About six months later, as Donald Trump launched a trade war on the rest of the world with his “liberation day” tariffs, the share of Republican pessimists had dropped to 33%.

The US president has taken credit for far-right victories across Latin America, but those wins have had more to do with fears of gang crime than his meddling

Donald Trump has enjoyed very few foreign policy victories since returning to power. From failed wars to failed peace processes, his second term in office has been marked by one costly blunder on the world stage after another. In Latin America, though, the US president has a different story to tell.

His administration’s national security strategy outlined how the US wanted to “restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere”. It was a brazen document, laying out how his government would interfere in the political life of countries it considered part of its sphere of influence, rewarding governments and movements that are “broadly aligned with our principles and strategy”.