From mortgages to inflation, concerns about the public finances of major economies have wide-reaching consequences

When Donald Trump was asked recently about the threat of rising interest rates on US government debt, he told baffled reporters: “The ultimate intervention is our military. And if we have to use that, we will.”

Perhaps not surprisingly, Trump’s bellicose words did not soothe fractious bond markets, and his resumption of the bombing campaign against Iran only made matters worse.

Number of new jobs being added has been fluctuating, with private companies adding 38,000 jobs in August

The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, an uptick after a sluggish summer for the labor market.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, still down from its most recent peak of 4.5% last November, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Despite the relative stability of the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added to the economy has been fluctuating, going from 214,000 in March down to a 21,000 gain in July and then back up in August.

However, Kevin Warsh didn’t say if interest rates would change in coming months, as inflation remains stubborn

The US Federal Reserve is not done fighting high inflation, its chair, Kevin Warsh, said in his first major speech in the role on Friday, emphasizing that it was “the Fed’s job to deliver stable prices”.

Warsh did not indicate where the Fed will take interest rates in the coming months, despite US inflation remaining stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target amid the war in Iran. But his speech was taken by markets as a signal that rates may rise in the coming months, a move that may put him at odds with Donald Trump, who has aggressively called for rates to be cut.

With the federal deficit near 6% of GDP and the national debt over $40tn, America’s fiscal position looks increasingly precarious

• Bessent ‘will lose’ battle with bond markets, ex-mentor warns

Are we seeing the first signs of panic in Donald Trump’s Treasury? The US is by far the world’s biggest debtor, and the steady rise in global long-term interest rates – which I have long argued was inevitable – is starting to cause real pain.

Until now, the Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has dismissed concerns about US debt, which recently surpassed $40tn, as a big nothingburger. Growth, in his telling, will be so spectacular the US will easily be able to meet its interest obligations without any significant tax rises or spending cuts, while the rest of the world will happily keep feeding it money. But if Bessent really believes that, why is he trying to strong-arm the bond market by fiddling with the maturity structure of government debt?

Confidence index drops to 89.4 in August from 90.2 in July amid frustration after five years of elevated inflation

Americans’ confidence in the economy declined again this month as the ongoing conflict in Iran continued to push US gasoline prices above $4 per gallon.

The Conference Board said on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index dipped to 89.4 in August from 90.2 in July. That was the lowest level in seven months but was essentially within the same lukewarm range it has been in since the beginning of the year. In late 2024 and early 2025, readings were consistently above 100.

Investors will hope Kevin Warsh offers ‘comfort blanket’ at annual meeting of central banks amid bond market anxiety

The new US Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, faces a critical test this week amid anxiety in government bond markets over inflation and Donald Trump’s tax and spending plans.

As the world’s most powerful central bank prepares for its annual Jackson Hole conference, analysts said bond traders would be looking for signals from Warsh over its commitment to fighting inflation.

As yields are dragged higher in the UK, Europe and Japan, the impact for consumers and businesses will be far-reaching

• ‘Starve the beast’? The $40tn cost of Republicans’ false promises to cut spending

Government borrowing costs around the world have surged to the highest levels in decades amid growing fears over US bond market turmoil.

Anxiety about Donald Trump’s handling of the US economy, and concern that the US president’s war with Iran is driving up inflation, are causing a sell-off in the US bond market.