Ukraine is working on a satellite system of its own, something similar to SpaceX's Starlink, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 4 October, Interfax-Ukraine reported. He argued Kyiv should be free to turn Starlink on Russian military targets, warning that China and other states will share comparable satellite technology with Moscow within months. Ukraine's battlefield communications still ride on a network owned by Elon Musk, who has clashed with Kyiv and once limited its wartime use.

Low-orbit satellite internet has turned into a frontline utility that a single company or government can switch on or off, and both armies are now racing to own that link instead of renting it. Control of the network decides whose drones can see the battlefield and fly through the jamming to strike it—leverage Kyiv has gone without while its connection rode on hardware it does not run.

Working on a Starlink of its own

Zelenskyy said there was groundwork in place and that Ukraine was working on a system similar to Starlink. He called it fair for Ukraine to aim Starlink at military sites inside Russia. The timing is the reason, he said: some states will share the technology with Russia late this year or early next, and the Chinese are among them. Moscow is already fielding its own Starlink-style constellation, Rassvet, though for now it reaches Ukraine only in brief passes.

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Ukraine's troops and drones lean heavily on Starlink, a network Kyiv neither owns nor controls. Musk has used that control against Kyiv before: in 2022 SpaceX refused a Ukrainian request to extend Starlink over occupied Crimea for a drone strike on Russia's warships, and it has since restricted the network's use for drone operations.

Sanctions, and satellites of its own

Zelenskyy has asked US President Donald Trump several times to sanction the Russian and Chinese companies building Russia's Rassvet network, most recently at the UN General Assembly in New York, he said in a recent Financial Times interview.

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Denys Shtilerman, co-founder and chief designer at Ukrainian defense company Fire Point, told the Financial Times in May that the firm had launched two satellites this year and planned dozens more in 2027, aiming to reduce reliance on the US government and Western tech companies. To strike deep inside Russia and gather intelligence, he has said, Ukraine needs its own constellation covering all of Russia.

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Russia's low-Earth-orbit satellite constellation Rassvet went from a few minutes of connectivity over Ukraine to two stable windows lasting more than an hour each in just five months. The system was built by the Russian private company Bureau 1440 as Moscow's answer to Starlink.

As of now, it is nowhere near matching SpaceX's 10,000-satellite network—but the gap between what Russia has now and what it needs is closing, and the tools that could slow it down mostly sit unused. When Ukraine and SpaceX bricked Russian-obtained Starlink terminals earlier this year, Russian assaults froze across the front—proof that cutting satellite command-and-control links matters more than disrupting guidance. Russia is now building its own links. The most consequential tool that could slow that down is Western sanctions against Bureau 1440 itself.

Four years of Western sanctions have failed to cut Russia off from the foreign components its missile and drone factories rely on: parts manufactured after sanctions were imposed still reach Russian assembly lines within months. Rassvet is a new version of the same problem. The system is still being built and relies on imported components whose exact origin is disputed—some experts point to American and European parts reaching Russia through sanctions-evasion networks, others say the core hardware is built from off-the-shelf Chinese components. Its manufacturer remains unsanctioned by any Western government, while some of the infrastructure needed to expand production has already been struck by Ukraine.

Six minutes in March, two hours by August

In March 2026, Bureau 1440 launched its first operational batch of 16 Rassvet satellites from Plesetsk Cosmodrome. Each pass over Ukraine created a window of six to 10 minutes, Serhii Beskrestnov, callsign Flash, a Ukrainian presidential adviser on defense technology, estimated at the time.

By late August, the picture had changed. Tracking data from N2YO showed four passes a day and two stable communication windows lasting more than an hour each. Satellite communications expert Volodymyr Stepanets said that 12 of the 16 satellites from the first batch had reached their operational altitude of 550 km, three were still ascending, and one had burned up—likely due to a manufacturing defect. A second batch of 16 went into orbit in July, though those satellites struggled to reach their target altitude and some may reenter the atmosphere.

The second batch may be climbing faster than the first did at the same stage. Still, Russia is far from the 200–250 satellites Beskrestnov considers necessary for stable, round-the-clock coverage, and the altitude of roughly 550 km is still short of the roughly 800 km the constellation is designed to reach.

What Rassvet would change on the battlefield

Russia is unlikely to have any civilian use in mind for these communication windows. The satellites transmit in the Ka and Ku bands—high-frequency signals that are difficult to jam and difficult to detect.

Right now, Ukraine's electronic warfare can push Russian drones offline: a Shahed flying low through a jammed zone loses its link and drifts off course. A satellite relay overhead would change that. The drone holds its course, receives updated coordinates mid-flight, stays below radar, and strikes. The constellation could do this for long-range strike and naval drones alike—letting them operate through electronic warfare at very low altitudes, where Ukraine's air defenses struggle to see them.

Bureau 1440 has also developed user terminals small enough to fit on Geran-type attack drones and cruise missiles. Gerans have struck Ukrainian territory, including Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, almost continuously over the past month. A terminal on a Geran would turn a one-way munition into a weapon that can be redirected after launch. Unlike the Starlink terminals Ukraine relies on, which are geographically restricted, Russian terminals are expected to face no such limits—the same terminal that connects a Geran over Kyiv Oblast would work over Berlin or Paris.

The sanctions lever—and the gap in it

Rassvet's parent company, IKS Holding, is one of Russia's largest hardware and software developers. The US sanctioned the holding, its then-owner Anton Cherepennikov, and the subsidiaries Kryptonit and KNS Group on 24 February 2023. Cherepennikov died under unexplained circumstances, but the company keeps operating.

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) says the holding serves as a personnel reserve for the Federal Security Service (FSB). The first deputy CEO of IKS Holding is Boris Korolyov, son of FSB First Deputy Director Sergei Korolyov, according to the SZRU. He took the post at 27 in 2023, after Cherepennikov's death.

More importantly, though, is the company that actually builds the satellites—Bureau 1440—and its leadership. Ukraine has placed the company on its own sanctions list, but Kyiv's unilateral designations carry limited trade enforcement power, because these people and this company are absent from Western lists. At Euromaidan Press's request, the US-based research organization C4ADS confirmed that Bureau 1440 and its leadership sit outside every Western sanctions regime, and called designating the manufacturer the single most visible and effective step available.

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From the Ukrainian side, Viktoriia Vyshnivska, a senior analyst at the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO), told Euromaidan Press that sanctions on Bureau 1440 are not a magic button—but they are not pointless, either. Because Bureau 1440 uses Western equipment, designating the company would directly affect trade in those boards and components, she said. Any Western manufacturer that kept doing business with the company would also risk investigation and legal consequences.

Given the reach of Russia's sanctions-evasion networks and its close ties with China in joint production and technology sharing.

"We shouldn't expect a magical effect," Vyshnivska said.

But sanctions would make direct trade impossible and raise the cost and difficulty of sourcing Western components.

Even if the useful window is short, making supplies more expensive and harder to find is the point.

Many of the goods Bureau 1440 uses are already banned from sale to Russia under EU export controls, Vyshnivska noted. Yet Bureau 1440 itself is still absent from the sanctions lists. Her recommendation: Bureau 1440, its current owners, its parent company, the key related entities and individuals, and its main suppliers should all be designated.

Diplomacy: Ukraine goes to the ITU

Beyond that, Ukraine is trying to act on its own on several fronts.

The first is diplomacy. On 28 August, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Ukraine had sent a formal note to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the UN agency that coordinates radio frequencies, demanding that Ukrainian territory be excluded from Rassvet's service areas across all frequency bands. The system's use over Ukraine "has nothing to do with civilian purposes," he wrote on X.

Days later, at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Ireland, Sybiha handed partners a list of nine legal entities linked to the project and urged them to impose sanctions.

The EU had already moved once: its 21st sanctions package, adopted on 23 July, targeted the Rassvet network. But the main gap is not closed, and that round stopped short of the manufacturer, leaving Bureau 1440 and its chief executive off the lists.

Hitting the supply chain with weapons

Another lever is direct strikes. In mid-August, Ukrainian-made Flamingo cruise missiles struck an industrial zone in Samara that houses the Progress Rocket Space Center—the only plant in Russia that serially assembles the Soyuz-2.1b rockets used to launch Rassvet into orbit. Satellite imagery published by the Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ showed a collapsed roof section 85 meters long and 35 meters wide over Building 106A, the hall where crews wire the rockets' control systems and cabling. The channel reported two missile hits on that hall.

If the hall was destroyed, production could stop entirely, and switching to other Russian launch vehicles would take significantly longer and add complexity. Drones also attempted to strike Plesetsk Cosmodrome, from which both 2026 batches were launched.

Both targets—the factory that builds the rockets and the site that launches them—are needed if Russia is to expand Rassvet production.

The timeline: 5.5 to eight years, if nothing changes

Russia plans to expand the constellation to 292 satellites by the end of 2027, Deputy Chief of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR) Vadym Skibitskyi said. Moscow's longer-term goal is 924 satellites by 2035.

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With 32 satellites already launched in two batches, 260 more are needed. At 16 satellites per launch, that requires roughly 17 launches. At a four-month interval between launches, deploying them would take roughly 5.5 years even if every launch succeeded and every satellite reached its target orbit. That most likely won't fully work out: one satellite from the first batch is already lost, two from the second batch may be lost as well, and none of them has yet reached the required altitude.

Russia also depends on the scarce Soyuz-2.1b rocket. The rocket has averaged only six to eight launches per year since 2022—most committed to GLONASS navigation satellites, ISS resupply, and military payloads—limiting Russia to a theoretical maximum of roughly two Rassvet-dedicated launches per year, or 128 Rassvet satellites over four years at that rate.

There is still time to shut this project down or slow it. Vyshnivska put the useful window to slow Rassvet at about a year. Russia, by Ukrainian calculations, needs five to eight years to see it through.

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President Volodymyr Zelensky signed an order on July 8 imposing sanctions on five Chinese-registered companies accused of supplying components found in Russian Shahed-type drones used to attack Ukraine.

The decree follows a statement by Ukraine's Security Service (SBU), which said it recovered Chinese-made parts from downed drones during a July 4 air assault on Kyiv.

Sanctions were imposed on Central Asia Silk Road International Trade, Suzhou Ecod Precision Manufacturing, Shenzhen Royo Technology, Shenzhen Jinduobang Technology, and Ningbo BLIN Machinery.

The list was published on the Presidential Office's website alongside the official decision by Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council.

Russia's domestically produced drones based on Iran's Shahed-136 is a loitering munition extensively used by Russia to target Ukrainian cities, and is assembled with components sourced from around the world. Kyiv has warned that some of these parts continue to flow through countries that have not joined Western sanctions.

China has emerged as one of Moscow's key wartime partners, helping Russia circumvent sanctions and becoming the largest supplier of dual-use goods aiding its defense sector.

Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the Ukrainian president's commissioner for sanctions, told journalists on July 7 that Russia's growing ability to sustain weapons production is being driven by a flow of Chinese components and materials.

Zelensky has repeatedly accused China of backing Russia and providing technological and logistical support for its war effort. On May 29, he said Beijing had blocked the sale of drones to Ukraine while continuing to supply them to Russia.

Ukraine has already sanctioned several Chinese companies tied to Russia's war effort.

As Russian-Chinese relations deepen, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit China in September, where he is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

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Russia’s growing ability to sustain weapons production despite Western sanctions is being driven by a flow of Chinese components and materials, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the Ukrainian president’s commissioner for sanctions, told journalists on July 7.

Vlasiuk’s statement comes as Russia escalates its drone and missile strikes on Ukraine, while the U.S. continues to hold back on imposing tougher sanctions against Moscow and foreign-made components are still being found in Russian weapons used in the attacks.

Ukraine has previously documented that Chinese companies have contributed electronics and materials used in the production of these drones.

Just days earlier, after a large-scale Russian attack on July 4, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha shared on social media a photo of a component from a Shahed-136/Geran-2 combat drone discovered in Kyiv. According to Sybiha, the part was manufactured in China and delivered recently.

"The trend of China’s (role) is increasing," Vlasiuk told journalists.

He said that the presence of Chinese-made components and materials in Russian weapons is on the rise, adding that Beijing is expanding its technological capabilities and can now replicate some American technologies.

When asked by Kyiv about the Chinese parts found in Russian weapons, Beijing responded by claiming that such support is "non-lethal," the president's commissioner for sanctions said.

Beijing remains one of Russia's key wartime partners, helping Moscow evade Western sanctions and emerging as the leading supplier of dual-use goods used by the Russian defense industry.

In April, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that China, alongside Iran and North Korea, is supplying weapons to Russia.

His remarks followed reports that Ukrainian soldiers had captured Chinese nationals fighting together with Russia's army in Donetsk Oblast. Later, Zelensky revealed that at least "several hundred" Chinese nationals are fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine.

Ukraine has already sanctioned several Chinese companies tied to Russia’s war effort.

The South China Morning Post reported that China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told the EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas on July 3 that the country cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine amid fears Washington would shift focus towards Beijing.

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U.S. President Donald Trump said on July 6 that his administration will impose an additional 10% tariff on countries aligning themselves with what he described as the BRICS group's "anti-American policy."

"There will be no exceptions to this policy," Trump wrote on the social network Truth Social.

The announcement coincided with the BRICS summit in Brazil, where member states, including Russia, China, and India, adopted a declaration condemning strikes on Iran and Israel's operations in Gaza.

The document did not explicitly name the U.S. but criticized actions perceived as destabilizing. On June 21, the country carried out strikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

Trump's latest trade threat escalates tensions with the BRICS group, which has increasingly sought to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar and shift toward a multipolar world order.

Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, described the summit as the start of a new "Global South" era, highlighting the group's aim to reshape the global order.

Though Russian President Vladimir Putin said in October 2024 that there are no immediate plans to create a BRICS currency, he highlighted the group's goal of financial sovereignty.

In January, Trump warned of 100% tariffs on BRICS members if they attempt to adopt a new or existing currency to replace the U.S. dollar in international trade.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attended the BRICS summit in person, while Putin participated via video due to an outstanding International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant. Brazil, the summit's host, is an ICC member and obligated to arrest Putin if he enters the country.

The declaration also condemned incidents on Russian railway infrastructure and called for a negotiated settlement in the war against Ukraine. However, it avoided urging Russia to halt its full-scale invasion.

BRICS expanded in 2024, admitting Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates as new members. In October 2024, Putin hosted a BRICS forum in Kazan, attended by 36 world leaders.

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If China attacks Taiwan, Beijing may ask Moscow to open a second front against NATO states, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in an interview with The New York Times (NYT) published on July 5.

Fears of escalating Chinese military intervention in Taiwan have risen sharply since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war has served as a possible model of how both Taipei and the international community might respond if Beijing decides to invade.

"There's an increasing realization, and let's not be naive about this: If Xi Jinping would attack Taiwan, he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, residing in Moscow, and telling him, 'Hey, I'm going to do this, and I need you to keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory,'" Rutte said.

"That is most likely the way this will progress. And to deter them, we need to do two things. One is that NATO, collectively, being so strong that the Russians will never do this. And second, working together with the Indo-Pacific — something President (Donald) Trump is very much promoting," Rutte added.

Western officials and analysts point to Russia's surging military expenditures amid its ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

In 2024, Russia's defense budget reportedly rose 42% in real terms, reaching $462 billion, surpassing the combined spending of all European nations, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

NATO allies have cited Russia's military buildup, sabotage campaigns, and continued aggression against Ukraine as reasons to accelerate defense investments.

Rutte previously warned that Russia could rebuild its military capacity to threaten NATO territory within five years, urging members to act with urgency.

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A Russian missile and drone strike on Odesa on July 3 damaged the building of the Chinese Consulate General, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on July 4.

"Following tonight's massive Russian air attack on Ukraine, we discovered in Kyiv a component of a Russian-Iranian Shahed-136/Geran-2 combat drone, which was made in China and supplied just recently," Sybiha wrote on X.

"And right on the eve, the Chinese Consulate General's building in Odesa suffered minor damage."

The July 3 assault on Odesa killed two people and injured six others. China has not publicly acknowledged the incident or reported any damage to its diplomatic premises in the city.

The Shahed-136 drone, a loitering munition used by Russia in its attacks on Ukrainian cities, has been assembled in large numbers in Russia with components sourced globally.

Ukraine has previously documented that Chinese companies have contributed electronics and materials used in the production of these drones.

Beijing remains one of Russia's key wartime partners, helping Moscow evade Western sanctions and emerging as the leading supplier of dual-use goods used by the Russian defense industry.

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas on July 3 that Beijing cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine, according to the South China Morning Post, which cited unnamed sources familiar with the conversation.

The reported statement adds to growing concerns in Kyiv over China's expanding role in supporting Russia's war effort. President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly accused China of siding with Moscow.

As Russian-Chinese relations deepen, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit China in September for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, where he is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

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China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told the EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas on July 3 that the country cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine amid fears the U.S. would shift focus towards Beijing, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported, citing sources familiar with the conversation.

As the war in Ukraine drags on, Wang's reported comments suggest that Russia's war in Ukraine may serve China's strategic needs as focus is deviated away from Beijing's mounting preparation to launch its own possible invasion into Taiwan.

China has been a key ally to Russia during its full-scale war, helping Moscow evade Western sanctions and becoming the leading source of dual-use goods fueling the Russian defense industry.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has not managed to broker a promised ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, has long viewed China as the United States' main adversary and is predominantly focused on relations between the two nations.

In June, Bloomberg reported Trump is pulling back from pressuring China over its support for Russia’s war effort, instead prioritizing other aspects of the U.S.-China relationship. The publication reported that the administration lowered the issue of Russia's war against Ukraine on its list of foreign policy priorities and is focusing on bilateral issues with Beijing, though they noted Trump could still shift course.

The frankness of Wang's reported admission was greeted with surprise by EU official, according to Hong Kong-based SCMP, amid China's past public statements in favor of a peace deal. Two sources familiar with the meeting told SCMP that they believed Wang was providing Kallas with a lesson in realpolitik during the four-hour encounter.

Wang on July 3 again reportedly rejected Western accusations that it was providing funding and weaponry to support Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly accused Beijing of providing weaponry to Moscow. On May 29, Zelensky said that China had stopped selling drones to Ukraine and Western countries while continuing to supply them to Russia.

Wang's comments come amid waning support from Kyiv's main military backer, the United States. On July 1, the U.S. Defense Department paused shipments of key weapons systems to Ukraine, including Patriot air defense missiles and precision-guided munitions.

As Russian-Chinese relations continue to grow, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to meet Chinese President Xi Jingping in September in China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to meet in August and September and noted the supposed "rough edges" that emerged among G7 leaders during their summit, said Putin's aide, Yuri Ushakov, on June 19.

In a phone call, the two leaders agreed to meet at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, China, between Aug. 31 and Sept. 1, and hold bilateral talks on Sept. 2, Ushakov said, according to the state news agency TASS.

China has been a key ally to Russia during its full-scale war, helping Moscow evade Western sanctions and becoming the leading source of dual-use goods fueling the Russian defense industry. Xi and Putin previously met during the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow in May.

While their phone call focused on the escalating security situation in the Middle East, the leaders also touched upon the G7 summit, noting "the well-known rough edges that emerged among the participants of this meeting," Ushakov said.

Putin and Xi also reportedly made mocking comments toward President Volodymyr Zelensky, saying it was not his "most successful trip abroad."

Zelensky was expected to meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the G7 summit in Canada, held from June 15 to 17, to discuss ways to increase pressure on Russia to end the war. Before Zelensky even arrived, Trump left the summit to address the escalating crisis in the Middle East, snubbing the meeting with the Ukrainian leader.

The G7 leaders were also unable to agree on a joint statement as the U.S. pushed for watered-down language on Russia. Instead, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney issued a summary saying that "G7 leaders expressed support for President Trump’s efforts to achieve a just and lasting peace in Ukraine."

"They recognized that Ukraine has committed to an unconditional ceasefire, and they agreed that Russia must do the same. G7 leaders are resolute in exploring all options to maximize pressure on Russia, including financial sanctions," the statement read.

While initially pledging to broker a swift peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow, Trump has become increasingly disengaged with the effort and resisted calls to increase pressure on Russia via additional sanctions.

Despite Trump's departure and disagreements with the U.S., Zelensky left the G7 summit with additional pledges of military support from Canada and new sanctions imposed against Russia's energy sector.

"Today, we have concrete decisions on increased military support, new tranches of aid funded by frozen Russian assets, and additional sanctions targeting what fuels Russia’s war," Zelensky said after the summit.

Zelensky also told the G7 leaders that "diplomacy is now in a state of crisis" and urged allies to press Trump "to use his real influence" to force an end to the war.

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