Russia may expand hybrid attacks against Poland and the Baltic states, including infrastructure sabotage or false-flag attacks, Bloomberg reported on 12 August, citing an unnamed European intelligence official. 

The warnings come amid concern that Moscow wants to intimidate Ukraine’s supporters. The CIA warning follows Russian threats, incursions, alleged sabotage plots, and disinformation against Poland and the Baltic states. Most Western military aid reaches Ukraine through Poland, while the Baltic states rank among Kyiv’s strongest supporters. Sabotage of transport, energy, or communications can slow aid delivery and test NATO while hiding Russia’s role.

Separately, a European government official told Bloomberg that the CIA had warned countries in the region of a possible future Russian attack. The CIA declined to comment.

The same official said Russia might instead be creating the impression of an impending attack to sow fear as part of an information operation. The official saw no signs that Moscow was preparing a conventional attack or invasion.

Moscow tests NATO’s eastern flank

Poland and Lithuania had already raised similar concerns. In July, Poland said it had credible intelligence that Russia was planning new provocations. Lithuania later warned that Moscow might rebuild captured Ukrainian drones for false-flag strikes on critical infrastructure.

In September 2025, between 19 and 23 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, shutting down airports and damaging buildings. Poland closed four airports as NATO aircraft responded.

Meanwhile, five people are on trial in Lithuania over attacks allegedly organized for Russian military intelligence in 2024, Bloomberg reported. Lithuania has reinforced infrastructure sites and deployed troops since June.

These warnings and incidents place the CIA alert within a wider pattern of pressure on NATO’s eastern flank and Ukraine’s supporters. 

How Russia strikes without starting a war

Bloomberg cited several recent unexplained drone incidents in Germany alongside the CIA warning. Citing Die Zeit, Euromaidan Press reported that an explosive-laden drone struck the wing of a parked Ukrainian An-124 at Leipzig-Halle airport and failed to detonate. A US Defense Department official in Europe told CNN that Washington assessed the drone belonged to Russian intelligence. 

Bloomberg also reported that a cargo plane hit an unidentified object and that drones appeared over a military base the following day. It did not connect either incident to Russia.

More broadly, Russian hybrid operations have grown sharply since the full-scale invasion. CSIS found that attacks in Europe tripled from 2023 to 2024, after quadrupling the previous year. Separately, the US Helsinki Commission mapped nearly 150 operations in NATO territory attributed to or suspected of Russia between February 2022 and November 2024.

Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges told Euromaidan Press in February that attacks on ports, railways, and cables can probe routes needed for NATO reinforcements. Their deniability raises the political cost of responding.

By hiding its role, Moscow can disrupt support for Ukraine and test NATO without openly starting a war. 

Lithuania's government approved an expanded plan on 12 August to fortify its borders with Russia and Belarus against a possible attack, LRT reports. Lithuania, a Baltic state and NATO member, sits wedged between Russia's Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus. The decision opens a new counter-mobility belt reaching inland from the border, a 20-meter strip that widens to 150 meters where the army marks out areas for operations.

The buildout answers a fear that has gripped the Baltics since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022: that a Russia left unchecked in Ukraine could turn on them next. Western intelligence agencies have warned for years that Moscow could eventually threaten NATO itself, and former CIA director David Petraeus has singled out Lithuania as the likeliest first target, pinned between Kaliningrad and Belarus and sitting beside the Suwałki Gap, the thin land corridor that is NATO's only overland route to the Baltic states.

The decision raises the number of engineering parks, storage depots for obstacles like concrete blocks and roadblocks, from 27 to 50, and gives that work until the end of 2028, more than three years past the original April 2025 target. The state rail company LTG Infra is to store the equipment. The changes could cost an extra €50 million ($58 million) from the State Defense Fund between 2026 and 2030.

Of the Baltic states and Poland fortifying their eastern borders, Lithuania is the most at risk yet the least fortified, according to a satellite review by open-source analyst Clément Molin, even as Belarus keeps testing that border with engineered migrant crossings. The plan is Lithuania's share of the Baltic Defense Line, the joint barrier it launched in 2024 with Latvia and Estonia, alongside Poland's parallel East Shield.

The design comes straight from Ukraine. Lithuania began building counter-mobility parks in 2023, drawing on Russia's war against Ukraine, and much of what it is now putting into the ground, the swamps, ditches, and obstacle fields, was tested first on Ukrainian battlefields, where mud, water, and simple barriers have repeatedly stalled armored advances.

The restored swamps should make some ground impassable to heavy military vehicles within a few years, the Defense Ministry says, with that work due by the end of 2030. Plans for defensive ditches and streams in the Marijampolė municipality were dropped, and the ministry found better sites in the Vilkaviškis and Šakiai districts. Deadlines for obstacles on roads and bridge approaches, and for fitting bridges with holders for explosives, were also moved to the end of 2028.

"Military counter-mobility is an important part of Lithuania's defence preparedness," Deputy Defense Minister Tomas Mikelkevičius said. "We seek to make the best possible use of Lithuania's terrain and engineering measures to impede an adversary's movement if necessary and create more favorable conditions for our armed forces to operate."

Lithuania approved its first counter-mobility plan in July 2024. The plan's original 2024 estimate put the full system at around €600 million ($690 million) over the decade.

Russia's pressure on the Baltic borders

The buildout lands amid steady friction along NATO's eastern edge. Latvia has absorbed the bulk of the migrant crossings funneled from Belarus, and this week found its first used smuggling tunnel under the border. Estonia has switched on the first sensors of a planned drone wall along its Russian frontier and is reallocating €500 million ($575 million) toward air defense and long-range strike. Russia, for its part, has shut seven rail crossings with Latvia, Estonia, and Finland without explanation.

The fortification drive is a bet on time. Estonia's military chief has set a two-year clock, warning Russia could be combat-ready again by 2027, and ISW analysts assessed in May that Moscow was manufacturing pretexts for aggression against the Baltics. Poland's parallel East Shield, meanwhile, has gone up far slower than promised, leaving the region's defenses still thin where the threat is judged greatest.

Lithuania's military intelligence warned that Russia is considering using captured Ukrainian drones for false flag attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region, LRT reported. Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas confirmed the assessment and called the scenario "probably the most realistic" form of Russian provocation against the region. Lithuania has reinforced security at key infrastructure sites and deployed military forces since June.

Russia's false flag playbook with captured drone parts

Moscow could reassemble crashed and intercepted Ukrainian drone wreckage into functioning devices and launch them at targets in the Baltic states, Kaunas told reporters on 6 August. The goal: create confusion about who launched the strike and avoid accountability for hitting NATO territory.

"We have data that Russia is considering conducting unconventional kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region," Kaunas said. "It is likely that Russia could use Ukrainian-made drones for this purpose."

The Baltic region. Map: Euromaidan Press

The mechanism exploits a byproduct of Ukraine's drone war against Russia. As Ukrainian long-range drones hit oil infrastructure and military targets deep inside Russia, some are intercepted or crash. Russia collects the wreckage. 

"Russia possesses some of those parts and drone fragments and is capable of assembling them into a functioning device," Kaunas said. "The theoretical possibility that such drones could be used in a false flag operation exists."

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Kaunas emphasized no decision to launch such an operation had been detected. 

"We are talking about a false flag operation in which a fake Ukrainian drone could be used. At this point, that is probably the most realistic scenario."

The false flag warning follows a pattern of Ukrainian drones entering Baltic airspace after being diverted by Russian electronic warfare. NATO fighter jets shot down such drones over Latvia and Estonia this spring, and Lithuania shut Vilnius airport after detecting a drone crossing from Belarus.

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Multiple NATO allies see the same intelligence

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda had earlier raised concerns about possible conventional and sabotage strikes targeting the country's transport and energy networks. Kaunas echoed that message and pointed to a broader pattern across the alliance's eastern flank.

"Other NATO countries have repeatedly made it very clear that they see it, hear it, know about it, and have warned Russia not to do it," Kaunas said. He did not identify specific targets or a timeline for any potential attack.

Russia claimed the Baltic states open air corridors for Ukrainian drone strikes—without producing evidence. Russia also threatened NATO member Latvia with retaliation over the accusations. Nausėda publicly rejected Moscow's claims.

NATO upgraded its Baltic Air Policing rules of engagement in July, giving fighter jets authority to shoot down objects that pose a threat. Russia's military aircraft probed NATO's eastern flank so aggressively in July that scrambles jumped more than 250%.

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Russia has damaged or destroyed close to 2,000 cultural heritage sites and thousands more cultural venues across Ukraine since its full-scale invasion began, Ukraine's Ministry of Culture reported. The losses grew again over the past month, and officials say occupied territory keeps the true scale out of reach. As the tally rises, more of Ukraine's allies are stepping in to help protect what survives.

The toll keeps rising

By the end of July 2026, Russia had damaged or destroyed 1,990 cultural heritage sites and 2,625 cultural venues, the ministry said. Russia "continues to systematically destroy" Ukraine's cultural heritage and infrastructure, it added. 

Over the past month, the count climbed by 90, adding 41 heritage sites and 49 cultural venues. Of the heritage sites, 47 are gone entirely: one of national significance, 44 of local significance, and two newly identified. The remaining 1,943 are damaged. The full list includes 192 sites of national significance, 1,605 of local significance, and 193 newly identified.

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A protected site struck in July

In July, a Russian attack damaged a site inside Odesa's historic center, which sits on the UNESCO World Heritage List. Kyiv and the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts also saw fresh strikes on monuments. In the Zaporizhzhia and Sumy oblasts and in Kyiv, Russian forces hit heritage sites they had already damaged before.

The ministry records the most damaged heritage in Kharkiv Oblast, with 358 sites, followed by Kherson Oblast with 303, Kyiv with 272, Donetsk Oblast with 229, and Odesa Oblast with 211. Cultural venues have been hit across 354 communities, or 24% of all local communities in Ukraine. Over the past month, the Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Chernihiv oblasts saw the most new destruction.

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Village clubs bear the brunt

Community and club venues form the largest group of damaged cultural facilities, at 1,300 sites, or 49.5% of the total. Russian attacks destroyed 283 of them and damaged another 1,017. The heaviest facility losses fall on the Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Sumy, Kyiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Russia also re-struck previously damaged sites in the Kharkiv, Kherson, Odesa, Sumy, and Donetsk oblasts.

The ministry stresses the figures understate the loss. Russia's occupation of nearly all of Luhansk Oblast and large parts of the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Kherson oblasts blocks any full assessment. 

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Earlier, Sweden signed a heritage-preservation deal and the EU backing a UNESCO initiative to catalog Ukraine's losses.

Each month of strikes turns reversible damage into permanent loss, and much of it now sits in land Ukraine cannot yet reach. The World Heritage site already declared in danger in occupied Crimea shows how far the erasure can run if the war grinds on.

Lithuania plans to establish production of Ukrainian-designed drones on its territory under a bilateral defense industry agreement, expanding Ukraine's manufacturing capacity abroad while strengthening Europe's defense industrial base, according to Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT.

Ukraine has increasingly pursued joint weapons production with allied countries as it seeks to scale up output, attract foreign investment, and build manufacturing capacity beyond the reach of Russian missile and drone attacks.

Bilateral drone agreement enters implementation phase

Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said the project will be carried out through joint investments under a defense industry cooperation agreement signed by Lithuania and Ukraine in May.

Speaking to the business daily Verslo žinios, Kaunas said his ministry was reorganizing its team to begin implementing what he described as the two countries' "drone deal."

"We have an agreement with Ukraine known as the drone deal. Changes are currently being made within the ministry's team to bring in key personnel who will begin translating that agreement into practical solutions on the ground, so that we can localize Ukrainian drone production in Lithuania," Kaunas said, according to LRT.

He said the drones would be manufactured in Lithuania using Ukrainian technology.

The agreement, signed by Presidents Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Gitanas Nausėda in May, provides for the joint production of four classes of Ukrainian drones – long-range strike drones, naval drones, interceptor drones, and bomber drones – as well as technology transfer and broader cooperation in air defense, missile defense, and unmanned systems.

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Ukraine builds production capacity with allies

Kaunas said the initiative would benefit both countries by expanding Ukraine's production capacity while helping Lithuania develop its own defense industry through new manufacturing capabilities, technological advances, and cooperation between Lithuanian and Ukrainian engineers.

For Kyiv, producing weapons abroad has become an increasingly important part of its defense strategy. Manufacturing in partner countries allows Ukrainian companies to expand output, access investment and industrial capacity, build more resilient supply chains, and reduce the risk of disruption from Russian long-range strikes while giving allies access to battlefield-tested Ukrainian technology.

Lithuania was among the first countries to back the initiative, having previously agreed to finance Ukrainian long-range drone production before formalizing the broader partnership this year.

Lithuania expands cooperation with Ukraine's defense industry

LRT reported that several Ukrainian defense companies have already received approval from Lithuania's national security commission to establish operations in the country, according to Invest Lithuania CEO Elijus Čivilis.

In June, Kaunas also invited Luxembourg-based drone manufacturer Luxuav, founded by Ukrainians, to conduct testing in Lithuania, underscoring the country's growing role as a base for Ukrainian defense technology and manufacturing in Europe.

Lithuania has signed a memorandum with American defense firm Northrop Grumman and Norwegian Nammo to secure the production of ammunition amid Russia's war against Ukraine, the Lithuanian Defense Ministry announced on June 24.

"By strengthening our national defense industry, we are investing in both technological capabilities and Lithuania’s resilience to crises. This Memorandum of Understanding will allow us to better equip our armed forces and help Lithuania become an important link in international supply chains," Lithuanian Vice Minister of National Defense Loreta Maskalioviene said.

"The investment and expertise of our allies... will significantly contribute to strengthening of the national defense industry and security not only in Lithuania, but also in the entire region, including Ukraine. The development of the defense industry and investment in production must come without delay," Lithuanian Finance Minister Rimantas Sadzius said.

Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine has sparked concern in Europe that Russia could attack NATO's eastern flank, including Poland, the Baltic countries, and Finland.

Ukrainian intelligence has evidence that Russia is preparing new military operations in Europe, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 22.

The partnership will be implemented at the state-owned Giraite Armament Factory, the announcement said, adding that the factory is set to be integrated into Northrop Grumman’s international supply chains.

Northrop Grumman will supply ammunition produced in the Lithuanian defense factory to the international market.

Nammo, as a subcontractor, will provide Northrop Grumman with the 35 mm ammunition production technology.

"It will enhance national strategic autonomy in defense and deepen partnerships with NATO allies, the United States, and Norway. The planned production of ammunition is of critical importance to the Lithuanian Armed Forces, our allies, and Ukraine," Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene said.

The memorandum will initiate negotiations for the production of medium caliber ammunition, ranging in size from 20-50 mm.

The Giraite Armament Factory will be provided with 35 mm ammunition production technology from the two defense firms, the announcement said.

Sakaliene noted that the new partnership will ensure an uninterrupted supply of ammunition to Lithuania's Armed Forces.

NATO is holding a summit in The Hague from June 24-25 with world leaders, including Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump present.

The White House has confirmed that Trump and Zelensky will hold a meeting at the NATO summit.

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An invitation for Ukraine to become a member of NATO "is not on the agenda" of the upcoming summit in The Hague, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said in an interview with the Baltic News Service published on June 18.

"This issue is certainly not on the NATO agenda and nobody has formulated an expectation that there will be an invitation in The Hague, nor have we heard that from the Ukrainians themselves," Budrys said in comments quoted by the LRT broadcaster.

"There is no such expectation that there will be breakthrough decisions, neither before the Washington summit nor now before the Hague summit – it is not on the agenda."

The comments, coming less than a week before the summit, hint at a shifting rhetoric within the alliance regarding Ukraine's potential membership after U.S. President Donald Trump took office.

The new Trump administration has spoken out against Kyiv's accession, and the U.S. president even echoed the false Russian narratives that its efforts to join NATO helped instigate Russia's full-scale invasion.

Unlike during the previous summits, the final communique may reportedly completely omit the topic of Ukraine's membership, as NATO members seek to avoid a conflict with Trump. The gathering was also preceded by rumors that Ukraine may not be invited due to U.S. opposition, but the invitation was extended in the end.

In spite of these tensions, Budrys said that the summit should keep its focus on Ukraine, stressing that the war-torn country is part of the Euro-Atlantic security space.

Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022, months after the outbreak of the full-scale Russian invasion. The alliance has signaled support for Kyiv's accession efforts in previous years, even declaring at the Washington summit in 2024 that Ukraine's path to membership is "irreversible" — but stopping short of a formal invite.

Kyiv's swift entry seems increasingly unlikely amid opposition from the U.S. and several other members, even though NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently reaffirmed that a political commitment to Ukraine's membership stands. Ukraine would need support from all 32 members to join.

It remains uncertain whether The Hague summit will lead to any breakthroughs regarding Ukraine. Following signals that U.S. President Donald Trump may not attend the event, the Guardian reported that President Volodymyr Zelensky may skip the summit as well.

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Russia is exploiting automatic medical exemptions in EU sanctions regulations to import dual-use goods for its military, Lithuania's Deputy Foreign Minister Gabija Grigaite-Daugirde told Bloomberg on June 12.

According to Grigaite-Daugirde, Lithuanian customs authorities blocked 28,854 goods in 2024 that were allegedly destined for Russia and Belarus "under the guise of medical exemption."

Many of the flagged shipments contained parts for motor vehicles, refrigerators, copiers, and microelectronics — all of which can have military applications.

"We have witnessed parts for motor vehicles, refrigerators, copying machines, and other types of microelectronics being exported directly to Russia, claiming that these are bound for medical use," she said.

Under current EU rules, medical exemptions are automatically granted, leaving customs authorities to investigate the shipments retroactively. Lithuania has called for reforms allowing exporters to apply for exemptions before shipments are approved.

"Leaving automatic exemptions from sanctions for medical goods is like closing a door but leaving a keyhole," Grigaite-Daugirde said. "Russia definitely finds a way to pass."

As Moscow shifts to a wartime economy and seeks Western-made technology for its arms production, its efforts to circumvent sanctions have grown "desperate," she added.

Lithuania, a key EU and NATO member bordering both Belarus and Russia's heavily militarized Kaliningrad exclave, has taken a hardline stance on enforcement and regularly pushes for tougher sanctions within the bloc.

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