Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has questioned Russia's ability to attack NATO countries, as it is not "even capable of defeating Ukraine," he said in an interview with French TV channel LCI on June 8.

"The Russians are too weak for that," Orban said. "They're not even capable of defeating Ukraine, so they're incapable of really attacking NATO."

Over three years into its full-scale war, Russia has failed to achieve Ukraine's surrender or at least the complete occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, which was reportedly among the Kremlin's demands in Russia's first peace proposal in 2022.

Russian troops have recently intensified their offensive, moving deeper into Sumy Oblast, as well as closing in on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Russian propaganda has for years insisted that NATO and its further expansion pose a threat to Moscow. The Kremlin has also claimed that Ukraine's ambition to join NATO was a major trigger for its invasion, although in 2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea and started the war in the Donbas region, Ukraine's chances and desires of joining the alliance were low.

Orban, widely regarded as the European Union's most pro-Russian leader, said that it is not in the interests of the EU, including Hungary, to have "a direct conflict with Russia" or "a threat of war," so Ukraine must not join NATO.

"Europe must be strengthened in the long term, and there must be a strategic agreement with Russia," Orban said, adding that sanctions against Russia are "destroying Hungary and the whole of Europe."

Under the Orban regime, Hungary has become widely regarded as the most Kremlin-friendly state in the EU.

Budapest has been blocking the opening of EU accession negotiation clusters with Kyiv and signaled further obstruction in recent weeks after Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) said it had uncovered a Hungarian spy network in western Ukraine.

Orban also encouraged Hungarians to vote in a non-binding national poll on Ukraine's EU bid that the government launched in early March. The poll has garnered criticism for low turnout and manipulative questions, written to encourage citizens to reject Ukraine's accession.

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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban railed against Ukraine's future accession to the European Union in a social media post on June 3, promising to "do everything" to prevent Ukraine from joining the bloc.

Under the Orban regime, Hungary has become widely regarded as the most Kremlin-friendly state in the EU. Budapest has been blocking the opening of EU accession negotiation clusters with Kyiv and signaled further obstruction in recent weeks after Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) said it had uncovered a Hungarian spy network in western Ukraine.

In a Facebook post on June 3, Orban called EU expansion "a noble idea" but excoriated "the bureaucrats in Brussels" for promoting Ukraine's membership.

"For Brussels, Ukrainian accession is a vital issue: political damage control and good business in the midst of a losing war," he wrote.

Orban claimed that Kyiv's membership would hurt Hungarian interests and have economic drawbacks for Europe.

"Ukraine would suck up every euro, forint and zloty that we have spent so far on strengthening European families, European farmers, and European industry. ... In 10 years, I would not be able to answer my conscience to myself, my grandchildren, or the country if I did not do everything now to protect Hungary and the European Union from the Brussels fever dream of Ukrainian accession."

Orban encouraged Hungarians to vote in a non-binding national poll on Ukraine's EU bid that the government launched in early March. The poll  has garnered criticism for low turnout and manipulative questions, written to encourage citizens to reject Ukraine's accession.

Kyiv formally applied for EU membership in 2022 and began accession talks in June 2024. EU leaders have set 2030 as a tentative target date for Ukraine's potential entry. As a member state, Hungary holds veto power over each phase of the process.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on May 9 that while the EU would prefer to secure unanimous support, it has alternative plans if Hungary vetoes Ukraine's accession to the bloc.

After the scandal regarding the alleged spy ring broke out in early May, Budapest announced it is suspending talks with Ukraine on "national minority rights," long presented by Hungary as the main roadblock in accession negotiations.

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Hungary and Slovakia continue to rely heavily on Russian oil, gas, and nuclear fuel, despite having technical and economic capacity to switch to alternative sources, according to a detailed joint report by the Centre for the Study of Democracy (CSD, Bulgaria) and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA, Finland). Both countries “have shown no real intention of phasing out Russian crude oil,” the report states. Similar conclusions are made regarding the Russian gas and nuclear projects.

The report, titled The Last Mile. Phasing Out Russian Oil and Gas in Central Europe, reveals that both countries have used EU sanctions exemptions not as a path to energy independence, but as a shield to deepen ties with Russian suppliers, significantly undermining EU unity and energy security strategy.

No real effort to reduce Russian dependency

The report presents a stark picture: Hungary and Slovakia have not reduced their imports of Russian oil and gas since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. On the contrary, Hungary increased its Russian crude reliance from 61% in 2021 to 86% in 2024. Slovakia’s dependence remained at nearly 87% that same year. Combined, the two countries imported 8.7 million tonnes of Russian crude oil in 2024, which is 2% more than in 2021.

Since the beginning of the invasion, these imports have sent the Kremlin approximately €5.4 billion in tax revenue. As the report emphasizes, that amount could theoretically fund the production of 1,800 Iskander-M missiles—missiles used to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian areas.

Despite disruptions in the Druzhba pipeline in 2024 and multiple opportunities to diversify through the Adria pipeline, both Hungary and Slovakia continued to rely on Russian supply chains. Slovakia began marginal non-Russian crude imports in the latter half of 2024, while Hungary saw its non-Russian crude intake fall to nearly zero.

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MOL and the role of state-linked energy networks

The report highlights the central role of Hungarian oil and gas company MOL, which owns the only refineries in both Hungary and Slovakia. MOL’s strategic decisions on crude origin determine national energy sourcing. Although the Hungarian state does not directly own MOL, it controls over 30% of the company through government-aligned foundations, effectively shaping its energy policy.

MOL secured multiple contracts for non-Russian oil via the Adria pipeline—2.2 million tonnes in 2023 and 2.1 million tonnes in 2025—but actual delivery in 2023 was less than half that amount. Meanwhile, MOL continues to process discounted Russian crude, profiting from price gaps that are not passed on to consumers. In fact, gasoline and diesel prices in Hungary remained 5% above the EU average in 2024.

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This arrangement has allowed MOL’s operating income to rise significantly: to $26.4 billion in 2022 and around $25.3 billion in both 2023 and 2024. The company’s profits helped stabilize Hungary’s strained budget through a windfall tax—initially 25%, later raised to 95%. By 2024, the tax yielded only $15 million, compared to $521 million in 2022, as discounts narrowed and fiscal benefits declined.

Between 2022 and May 2024, Hungary and MOL earned an estimated €1.7 billion in “extra profit” from this setup, according to a Hungarian nonprofit G7 investigation cited in the report.

Exploiting legal loopholes and export exemptions

The report details how both Hungary and Slovakia used EU exemptions to re-export petroleum products made from Russian crude to Czechia. Originally set to expire in December 2023, this export exemption was extended twice—first to December 2024, then to June 2025—despite Czechia’s objection.

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In 2024, Slovakia exported 710,000 tonnes of petroleum products to Czechia, worth €520 million, while Hungary added another 39,000 tonnes worth €40 million. Slovnaft, MOL’s Slovak subsidiary, is identified as the primary beneficiary.

Gas dependency entrenched via TurkStream

Hungary has positioned itself as a regional hub for Russian gas, increasing imports via TurkStream and re-exporting to Slovakia. Hungary’s 15-year contract with Gazprom, signed in 2021, was expanded in 2024 with an additional 2 billion cubic meters per year.

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Slovakia, whose contract with Gazprom runs until 2034, has likewise expanded imports from Hungary, effectively bypassing Ukraine as a transit country. The report notes that this arrangement severely weakens the EU’s diversification efforts and severely weakens “the EU’s collective energy security strategy and reinforce long-term risks of political leverage by the Kremlin.”

Hidden networks, offshore intermediaries, and Kremlin ties

Central to the report is the exposure of intermediary networks, particularly Normeston Trading SA—a company tied to Soviet-era oil traders and Russian oil majors. Normeston, once based in Belize and later in Cyprus and Switzerland, acted as a shadow intermediary for Russian crude shipments to Hungary and Slovakia.

The company has long-standing ties to MOL executives and Russian oil firms, including Lukoil and Bashneft. The report alleges that Normeston facilitated massive markups on Russian oil imports by acting as a middleman, effectively skimming profits outside the scope of EU oversight.

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The nuclear dimension

Although Slovakia signed a fuel supply deal with US-based Westinghouse, and Hungary with France’s Framatome, both continue to receive large volumes from Rosatom. The Paks II nuclear project in Hungary, led by Rosatom and financed 80% through a Russian loan, is flagged as a long-term strategic risk that locks Hungary into Russian influence for decades.

The report points out that the key contract details for Paks II are classified, and oversight is minimal. It describes the entire project as lacking transparency, with regulatory bypasses and rising costs now estimated at €15 billion—about 12% of Hungary’s GDP.

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Infrastructure and alternatives: No technical barriers

Tests confirm both MOL refineries can process non-Russian crude. In 2019, during a Druzhba contamination crisis, Hungary’s reliance on Russian oil temporarily dropped to 48% as it switched to Adria-supplied crude.

Similarly, alternatives to Russian gas exist through expanded LNG infrastructure in Greece, Croatia, and Poland, and new interconnectors with Austria, Romania, and Poland. The report insists that technical constraints do not justify continued Russian dependency.

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Recommendations: End exemptions, enforce traceability, dismantle capture networks

The report urges the EU to:

• Terminate the crude oil import exemptions under Regulation 833/2014 by 30 June 2025.
• End the loophole allowing oil product exports derived from Russian crude.
• Audit and enforce transparent pricing in the Adria pipeline to dispel Hungary’s cost-related claims.
• Impose full traceability of oil and gas origin.
• Sanction Rosatom and all subsidiaries to reduce nuclear dependence.
• Investigate MOL’s role in prolonging dependency through the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF).

It concludes that continued exemptions and reliance on Russian energy sources serve no technical or economic rationale and must be ended to protect European energy security, reduce Kremlin revenues, and restore EU sanctions integrity.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has announced a tougher stance against Hungary and Slovakia over their continued obstruction of EU sanctions targeting Russia, German TV channel NTV reported. Actions against them can include withdrawal of EU funds from the countries.

Speaking at the WDR-Europaforum on 26 May, Merz said, referring to the restraining role of both states in the EU sanctions against Russia:

“We will not be able to avoid a conflict with Hungary and Slovakia if this course continues.”

He emphasized that both governments represent only a “small minority” among the 27 EU member states, yet have used their veto powers to block or weaken sanctions.

“We cannot allow the decisions of the entire European Union to depend on a small minority,” Merz stated.

Pressure tools within the EU

According to the German chancellor, the EU has a range of instruments it can apply to increase pressure on the pro-Russian governments of Slovakia and Hungary. Among them are infringement proceedings for violations of rule-of-law obligations and the possible suspension of EU funding for Budapest and Bratislava.

“But there is always the option of withdrawing European funds from them,” Merz said, referencing legal mechanisms available under EU treaties. While he added that he does not seek conflict, he made it clear: “If it is necessary, then we will deal with them.”

Merz had spoken directly with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán the previous week.