Moscow’s recycled lies and nuclear bluster aim to fracture NATO and halt US aid for Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 16 July. The Kremlin is reviving old narratives, including nuclear threats and faux diplomacy, in a coordinated information campaign targeting the United States’ renewed commitment to Ukraine and NATO.

Kremlin revives nuclear threats to pressure NATO

ISW says that the Kremlin is “recycling several longstanding informational narratives, including nuclear threats, in a renewed effort to break the United States away from Ukraine and the NATO alliance.” 

On 16 July, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that all provisions of Russia’s nuclear doctrine remain active. He emphasized that nuclear powers must not “incite” non-nuclear states and warned that nuclear countries must “answer” for such incitement.

Russia had updated its nuclear doctrine in fall 2024, introducing a clause suggesting that aggression by a non-nuclear country backed by a nuclear power may be treated as a joint attack on Russia.

Blaming the West for Moscow’s war

Responding to a question about Trump’s push for increased NATO military aid to Ukraine, Peskov claimed that “Europeans maintain a rabid militaristic attitude towards Moscow.“

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov echoed this approach, stating on 15 July that Moscow’s illegal invasion of Ukraine aims to eliminate “the threats that NATO has created” on Russia’s borders.

ISW highlights that these narratives have remained constant throughout the war and are being revived to undermine unity between the United States and Europe.

Russia casts itself as the peacemaker

Amid the Western calls to force Moscow into meaningful negotiations to end the war, Peskov  urged the international community to pressure Ukraine—not Russia, the aggressor country—into bilateral negotiations. ISW assesses this move as an effort to “falsely portray Russia as willing to negotiate while undermining Ukraine’s credibility.”

Strategy targets transatlantic unity

ISW notes that Russia is using the same “rhetorical line” that it has used throughout the war “to deter Western support for Ukraine, but has shifted its objective from preventing new support for Ukraine to reversing recent support” and to break the US from its NATO allies.

“The Kremlin is prioritizing informational campaigns aimed at undermining NATO unity and stoking discontent between the United States and its European allies in order to degrade Ukraine’s defense capabilities and achieve its longstanding war aims that amount to Ukraine’s capitulation,” ISW wrote.

During a recent meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Beijing, Chinese leader Xi Jinping stated that China and Russia must “deepen their strategic partnership.”

The meeting took place the day after NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and US President Donald Trump gathered in Washington, where both sides pledged greater support for Ukraine.

On 14 July, the American leader announced the delivery of 17 Patriot air defense systems to Kyiv and a new agreement with NATO under which allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine. Trump also issued an ultimatum: Russia will face 100% tariffs if it doesn’t end the war within 50 days.

At the meeting with Lavrov, the Chinese president claimed that the two countries must strengthen mutual support and unite Global South nations to form “a more just international order.”

Xi emphasized that the foreign ministries of both countries must implement the agreements reached between him and Russian ruler Vladimir Putin, and enhance cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

“The SCO has become an influential regional organization that plays a major role in the stability of Eurasia,” the Chinese leader stressed.

The SCO was founded in 2001. Its mission has evolved from counterterrorism to broader economic and political cooperation. The organization currently unites 10 countries and is headquartered in Beijing.

China is Russia’s largest trading partner and has provided Moscow with economic support that has helped it withstand Western sanctions.

Xi and Putin have met dozens of times and signed a “no-limits partnership” in February 2022, less than three weeks before Putin sent troops into Ukraine, according to Ukrainska Pravda. 

This year, Putin and Xi signed another agreement to further deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership.

Earlier, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told a senior EU diplomat that China “cannot accept” a Russian defeat in the war against Ukraine, arguing that such an outcome would allow the US to shift its foreign policy focus toward Beijing.

Russia is attempting to trade business cooperation with the US in exchange for concessions in its war against Kyiv. At the same time, Moscow relentlessly attacks civilians, killing women and children with record numbers of drones, demanding Ukraine’s surrender, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports. 

“The Kremlin continues efforts to use its diplomatic engagements with the United States in an effort to divert attention from the war in Ukraine and toward the potential restoration of US-Russian relations,” experts conclude.

According to the Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement on the Rubio-Lavrov meeting, they discussed bilateral US-Russia issues unrelated to the war in Ukraine, including the restoration of contacts, economic and humanitarian cooperation, direct air travel, and the work of diplomatic missions.

The Russian Foreign Ministry also said that the US and Russia will continue dialogue on a “growing range of issues of mutual interest.”

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on 10 July that he sees no slowdown in the development of US-Russia relations.

The day before the meeting, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova reaffirmed Russia’s initial military demands for regime change in Ukraine and demilitarization. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov again stated that Moscow insists on recognizing the “realities on the ground.”

“Kremlin officials’ public statements continue to demonstrate that Russia remains committed to achieving its original war goals in Ukraine and is not interested in good faith negotiations to end the war, however,” the ISW writes. 

The analysts emphasize that Kremlin officials often urge Ukraine to accept the “realities on the ground,” meaning the current frontline in Ukraine, implying Russia holds a stronger negotiating position due to the battlefield situation. They also demand that Ukraine concede to Russian demands to change its government, stop arms deliveries, and reduce its army.

BRICS summit participants condemned recent attacks on Russia’s railway infrastructure, according to a joint declaration on July 6 from Rio de Janeiro.

"We condemn in the strongest possible terms the attacks on bridges and railway infrastructure deliberately targeting civilians in the Bryansk, Kursk and Voronezh regions of the Russian Federation on May 31, and June 1 and 5 2025, which resulted in the deaths of several civilians, including children," the document says.

Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh oblasts are all located near Ukraine’s northeastern border and have played a central role in Russia’s war effort, serving as key logistical hubs and launch sites for missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities–often targeting civilian infrastructure and causing casualties.

In their declaration, BRICS leaders also called for a negotiated peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

“We recall our national positions concerning the conflict in Ukraine as expressed in the appropriate forum, including the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly,” the document said. “We expect that current efforts will lead to a sustainable peace settlement.”

The statement comes a few days after a phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 3, in which Putin said "Russia will continue to pursue its goals" in the war against Ukraine, Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attended the summit in person, while Russian President Vladimir Putin participated via video link.

Brazil is a member of the ICC and a signatory to the Rome Statute, meaning it is obliged to arrest Putin if he enters the country.

The ICC issued a warrant for the Russian leader's arrest in March 2023 over the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The BRICS declaration also condemned recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as violations of international law and criticized the presence of foreign forces in Syria and Gaza, calling for Israeli withdrawal from Syrian territory.

BRICS, originally composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has expanded in recent years to include Iran, Egypt, the UAE, Ethiopia, and Indonesia.

Lavrov meets Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi at BRICS summit, reiterates Russia’s offer to mediate disputes over nuclear program

Russia reiterated its offer to mediate the conflict over Iran’s nuclear program during a meeting between Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Iranian counterpart at the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Reuters reported on July 6.

The Kyiv IndependentSonya Bandouil

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated Moscow's offer to mediate disputes over Iran’s nuclear program, during a meeting with his Iranian counterpart at the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Reuters reported on July 6.

Lavrov met with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi to discuss the situation, condemning recent Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, including attacks on nuclear sites under IAEA safeguards.

Moscow reaffirmed its support for Iran’s right to nuclear energy, and also offered to store Iranian uranium as part of a potential solution.

Although Iran officially denies intentions to pursue nuclear weapons, tensions with the U.S. and Israel remain high following the Iran-Israel conflict in June, which has currently settled into an uncertain ceasefire.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said on June 22 that Iran’s nuclear program must be dismantled to prevent it from threatening the Middle East or the wider world, following U.S. air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

“Iran is complicit in the crime of aggression against Ukraine. The Iranian regime is providing military assistance to Russia, including the supply of UAVs and technologies that Russia consistently uses to kill people and destroy critical infrastructure,” the statement read.

Russia and Iran have deepened ties since the start of the full-scale invasion. Notably, Iran has provided Russia with thousands of Shahed drones used in attacks against Ukrainian cities, as well as short-range ballistic missiles.

Amid its war against Ukraine, Russia condemns US strikes on Iran as ‘violating international law’

Moscow condemned on June 22 the recent U.S. strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, calling them a violation of international law and Iran’s sovereignty, a statement in stark contrast to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

NATO's increased defense spending will lead to the "collapse" of the alliance, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on June 30, despite Russian officials recently warning that Moscow's own military expenditure is driving the country towards recession.

Lavrov's comments come after NATO leaders last week approved a new defense spending benchmark, committing members to spend at least 5% of GDP on defense and security-related expenditures by 2035, a goal long pushed by the U.S. and endorsed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

The week previously, and in a rare public sign that all is not well in Russia, two high-ranking Moscow officials issued separate warnings about the state of the country's economy.

Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov both highlighted that amid the Kremlin's full-scale war against Ukraine, the tools Moscow once relied on to maintain wartime growth are nearly exhausted.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski on June 26 said an arms race between Russia and NATO could lead to Russian President Vladimir Putin's downfall.

"Since (Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski) is such a predictor, he probably foresees that a catastrophic increase in the budget of NATO countries, according to my estimates, will also lead to the collapse of this organization," Lavrov reportedly said.

Putin last week announced that Moscow plans to cut its military expenditure beginning next year, in a rebuke of NATO members' plans to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.

"We are planning to reduce defence spending. For us, next year and the year after, over the next three-year period, we are planning for this," Putin said, though he did not provide concrete details.

"Europe is thinking about how to increase its spending, on the contrary. So, who is preparing for some kind of aggressive actions? Us or them?"

Western officials and analysts point to Russia's surging military expenditures amid its ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In 2024, Russia's defense budget reportedly rose 42% in real terms, reaching $462 billion, surpassing the combined spending of all European nations, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

NATO allies have cited Russia's military buildup, sabotage campaigns, and continued aggression against Ukraine as reasons to accelerate defense investments. Rutte warned that Russia could rebuild its military capacity to threaten NATO territory within five years, urging members to act with urgency.

As Ukraine bleeds, Western opera welcomes back pro-Putin Russian singer Anna Netrebko

More than three years into Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, many Western cultural institutions that had distanced themselves from Russian artists as a gesture of solidarity with Ukraine are now reversing course. The U.K.’s Royal Ballet and Opera House announced on June 23 that its 2025-2026 cinema

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan