The US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts that Ukraine's grain exports will fall steeply in the 2026-27 season, with corn shipments dropping 39% to 14 million tonnes and wheat 26% to 10.8 million, World Grain reported. The agency tied the decline to Russia's summer campaign against the Odesa ports, which handle roughly 90% of the country's grain.

The forecast puts Washington's own numbers behind what Kyiv has warned for weeks. Ukraine's agriculture ministry projects farm exports could fall by almost half this season, and the FAS estimate — from a body with no stake in Ukraine's budget — points the same way. The difference is where the FAS looks: not at the ships that cannot sail, but at the grain that cannot follow them out.

Grain with nowhere to go

The clearest sign of the blockage is in ending stocks — grain left sitting in the country when the season closes. The FAS expects Ukraine's corn stocks to jump more than tenfold, to 13.5 million tonnes from 1.3 million, and wheat stocks to more than double to 8.2 million. That is grain the harvest produced and the ports could not move.

Ukraine has more than 74 million tonnes of storage for grain and oilseeds, the FAS noted, including about 23 million tonnes of certified warehouse space. Even so, the agriculture ministry has said the country may need another 10 to 12 million tonnes of temporary storage to get through the corn harvest if the Black Sea disruptions continue — most acutely in regions near the front line.

Why Odesa decides the harvest

Almost everything moves through Odesa. Three deepwater ports in Odesa Oblast carry more than 90% of Ukraine's farm exports, and Russia spent the summer hitting them and the ships that call there. Missiles struck the Turkish-owned bulk carrier Golden Leo as it left Odesa loaded with grain on 19 July, killing 10. Days earlier, a Russian drone hit a Palau-flagged corn ship twice as it sailed for Greece.

The land routes that remain — rail, road, and the Danube — cannot take up the slack, and traders have pulled back from buying grain they have no way to ship.

Farming is Ukraine's biggest export earner, bringing in more than half of what the country made selling goods abroad last year. Ukraine is also among the world's largest corn suppliers, which is why a cut of this size registers well beyond its own budget. For the farmers holding this year's crop, the FAS forecast describes a harvest they may not be able to sell.

Ukraine and Moldova are discussing transporting Ukrainian grain by rail through Moldovan territory to the Romanian port of Constanta, an option driven by intensified Russian attacks on shipping in the Black Sea, according to unnamed sources in both countries cited by Reuters.

The talks come as Russian strikes on vessels using the Black Sea corridor have disrupted traffic during the harvest season and forced Ukraine to cut its export forecast. On 22 July, no ship passed through the corridor at all, and the country's agriculture ministry has already lowered its projection for the 2026–2027 season by up to five million tons.

Discount sought, volume guarantees demanded

Kyiv is asking for a discount of 50 percent off the nominal rate to transport its grain, according to the agency's sources. A source at Moldovan Railway said Moldova responded with a counterproposal: guarantees from Ukraine on the volumes of grain it would transport through the route.

"We are currently collecting information on potential volumes from interested shippers. The information-gathering process has not yet been completed," a senior Ukrainian industry official told Reuters.

Ukraine expects corridor to cover 10 percent of exports

Ukraine estimates the Moldovan corridor could handle 10 percent of its grain exports. Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said earlier that his ministry had lowered its grain export forecast for the 2026–2027 season from 43 million tons to 38–40 million tons because of Russian attacks on ports.

Ministers discuss rail links

A day before the Reuters report, Moldova's Minister of Infrastructure and Regional Development, Vladimir Bolea, visited Ukraine's Odesa region and met with his Ukrainian counterpart, Mykola Kalashnyk, to discuss improving rail connections and expanding the transit network between the two countries.

Moldova's premier defends transit revenue

Moldovan Prime Minister Vasile Tofan said his country should not pass up the opportunity to earn millions of euros from transiting Ukrainian grain cargo. He dismissed suggestions by Moldovan farming groups that Ukrainian grain prices would depress the value of their own produce.

"Let's not look for enemies where there are none," he said on Moldovan television.

Russian attacks on shipping

Russia intensified strikes on vessels using the Ukrainian Black Sea corridor in July. On 13 July, Russian forces struck a civilian ship flying the flag of Togo while it was unloading mineral fertilizer off the coast of Odesa region, killing five crew members and injuring five others.

The following day, 14 July, Russia attacked two civilian vessels in the Black Sea — cargo ships flying the flags of Tanzania and Liberia. The captain of one of the ships was killed. On the evening of 17 July, a vessel flying the flag of the Marshall Islands was struck. Attacks continued afterward.

On 22 July, no vessel passed through the sea corridor. The Ukrainian government called the disruption "deliberate economic and humanitarian terror," coming at the height of the harvest season.

Ukraine convened an urgent session of the UN Security Council over the attacks, calling on all states — particularly those "which this directly concerns" — to demand that Russia stop striking shipping. Separately, the Southern Mining and Processing Plant (Pivdennyi HZK) announced it was suspending extraction and temporarily scaling back operations.

A bipartisan group of US House members introduced the House version of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 on 10 August, advancing the sweeping sanctions package during the chamber's summer recess just days after the Senate passed it.

The move puts the bill one chamber from becoming law. If the House passes it, it would hand the president authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the biggest buyers of Russian crude and gas—China and India chief among them—and to blacklist the aging tankers of Russia's shadow fleet, the vessels that move sanctioned oil around Western restrictions. The target is the oil revenue that pays for Russia's war on Ukraine, at a moment when Ukrainian deep strikes have already knocked a large share of Russian refining capacity offline.

What the bill would do

The package imposes primary and secondary sanctions on Russian officials, oligarchs, entities propping up Russia's defense-industrial base, and foreign actors that materially aid Moscow's military operations. It targets major Russian banks and the foreign financial institutions that do significant business with them, and it goes after the shadow fleet and sanctions-evasion networks—ships, owners, operators, insurers, and ports that knowingly move Russian oil. The tariff framework, up to 100% on the top five buyers of Russian oil and the top five buyers of its gas, replaces an earlier plan for a blanket 500% tariff, with the US trade representative setting the specific rate for each country. The bill also folds in Iran, extending the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996.

Sanctions could be lifted only if the president certifies to Congress that Russia has signed a peace deal accepted by a free and independent Ukrainian government and has halted hostilities and efforts to subvert Kyiv.

A bill born from a stall—and a death

Graham and Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal introduced the measure in 2025 with 500% tariffs. It drew more than 80 Senate cosponsors and went nowhere for over a year, as the White House kept it off the floor while betting on negotiations that never delivered. Graham secured President Trump's sign-off, then died on 11 July of an aortic dissection, a day after his last visit to Kyiv. The Senate renamed the bill in his honor and passed it 86-11 on 7 August.

The House is not a rubber stamp

The House text is identical to the Senate-passed version, so the companion functions largely as a whip count—a way for members to signal support before a floor vote expected this fall, once the chamber returns from recess on 31 August. Passage is not guaranteed: some House members have voiced fundamental concerns about handing the president broad tariff powers that could raise costs for US importers and consumers.

Two Russian oil refineries caught fire on 11 August, but the two incidents tell very different stories. In Orsk, in Orenburg Oblast, drones sparked a blaze that Ukrainian monitoring channels quickly linked to Kyiv's long-range campaign. Meanwhile, thousands of kilometers farther east, a Rosneft plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur burned for reasons that remain unexplained.

A drone strike deep in Orenburg Oblast

Early on 11 August, residents of Orsk reported explosions near the Orsknefteorgsintez refinery, and a large fire soon followed. OSINT analysts at the Telegram channel Exilenova+ reported the strike. By their assessment, the drones flew more than 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine's border to reach Orsk. Preliminary findings pointed to damage at the plant's hydrocracking complex. Modernized in recent years, the unit can process 1.6 million tonnes a year.

Russian officials confirmed the attack, though they did not name the target at first. Orsk Mayor Artem Vorobyov urged residents to stay indoors and away from windows. Orenburg Governor Yevgeny Solntsev, meanwhile, activated the "Kovyor" (Carpet) airspace-safety plan across a 100-kilometer radius. Authorities also imposed temporary flight restrictions at the Orsk airport.

"The strike drones covered more than 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine's border to reach Orsk—among the deepest targets yet in the refinery campaign," Exilenova+, via OSINT monitoring

An unexplained blaze in the Far East

Far to the east, the picture is murkier. Around 11:00 local time, residents of Komsomolsk-on-Amur reported a fire near the city's refinery. ASTRA then geolocated the footage to Rosneft's RN-Komsomolsk plant. Notably, Ukrainian analysts cautioned that the fire does not appear to stem from a drone strike. After all, the site sits roughly 6,500 kilometers from Ukraine—far beyond the range of Kyiv's long-range drones. Coverage from the Kyiv Independent, meanwhile, flagged no clear cause.

The plant's press service reported no injuries, as relayed by Russian state agency TASS. Commissioned in 1942, the RN-Komsomolsk refinery has a design capacity of about 8 million tonnes of crude per year. In fact, it supplies more than 60% of the petroleum products across Russia's Far Eastern Federal District. Moreover, it produces gasoline, diesel, marine fuel, and other products for the region.

Ukraine's campaign against Russian oil refineries

The Orsk plant is no stranger to such strikes. Drones previously hit Orsknefteorgsintez on 3 October and 11 November 2025, and again on 29–30 April 2026. Since 2022, Ukraine has widened its deep-strike campaign against Russian oil refineries, fuel depots, and pipelines. Such targets power the Kremlin's army and bankroll the war through oil exports. Increasingly, Russian oil refineries have become the signature target of Ukraine's long-range war. Just the night before, on 10 August, Ukraine's General Staff confirmed a strike on the TANECO refinery in Tatarstan. A fire broke out there, too.

As of publication, Kyiv had not claimed the 11 August Orsk strike. Still, the timing fit a familiar pattern—a long-range campaign aimed at the fuel that keeps Russia's war machine moving.

Ukrainian drones struck a Wildberries logistics complex in Voronezh Oblast overnight into 11 August, setting off a massive fire at one of the Russian retailer's largest and newest hubs, according to Russian and Ukrainian monitoring channels.

Voronezh Oblast Governor Alexander Gusev said one person was killed, a 49-year-old man who was outside during the attack, suffered severe wounds, and died in hospital. Two others were hospitalized, one caught outside and one on the grounds of the logistics center.

Gusev reported fires at two warehouses in the Novousmansky district, with firefighters containing one blaze across about 16,000 square meters and battling another over roughly 20,000 square meters. Debris also damaged three trucks and a car, he said. Russian outlet Astra and Ukrainian monitoring channels identified the site as a Wildberries complex, which Gusev did not name, placing it at the village of Aleksandrovka.

The struck hub opened fully in late 2025, spans about 152,900 square meters, and can hold more than 90 mn items. Wildberries said it had evacuated staff at its logistics sites across the oblast in line with safety requirements. Gusev claimed Russian air defenses detected and destroyed 15 drones over Voronezh and five districts of the oblast.

The strike is the latest in a widening Ukrainian long-range campaign against Wildberries, described by Ukrainian officials as Russia's answer to Amazon and targeted, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said, because the platform helps supply the Russian military with parts for drones and other equipment. Russia rejects the claim.

Ukraine had already hit its 16th Wildberries warehouse in under three weeks by 5 August, when drones set fire to a logistics center in Oleksin, Tula Oblast.

Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert "Madyar" Brovdi said on 4 August that the campaign had struck 15 sites in 18 days, thirteen of them knocked out of action or seriously damaged. Russian outlet Agentstvo put the count at more than 20 warehouses since mid-July. On 7 August, drones reached a Wildberries hub in Yekaterinburg, more than 1,700 kilometers from Ukraine, and earlier fires hit sites in Moscow Oblast, Tambov Oblast, Krasnodar, Stavropol Krai, Leningrad Oblast, St. Petersburg, and occupied Crimea, as well as Voronezh Oblast itself. Estonian military intelligence has estimated the strikes have caused up to $2 bn in direct damage

Russia has rebuilt its missile industry around the weapons most likely to pierce Ukraine's thinning air defenses. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) made that case on 10 August. Kyiv's Patriot interceptor shortage, it assessed, now hands Moscow no reason to negotiate. Because Kyiv can no longer reliably stop ballistic missiles, the Kremlin sees a clear military path to its maximalist aims.

Factories retooled around the missiles that get through

Since April 2026, Russian plants have prioritized ballistic and cruise missiles built to evade interception. HUR Deputy Head Major General Vadym Skibitskyi reported the shift. Monthly ballistic launches have more than tripled between April and July, he said. Meanwhile, output of key missile types runs 10 to 20% above plan. Moscow also met its full-year Zircon and Onyx targets by 3 August. To free capacity, it suspended the less accurate Kinzhal and Kh-32 lines. Skibitskyi flagged a newer twist, too: S-400 launchers now fire specially developed RM-48U rounds along a ballistic path. Russia is also striking Ukraine's defense plants, he warned, to choke off Kyiv's own ballistic-missile program.

Fired fresh, not from the stockpile

Crucially, these strikes draw on newly built missiles rather than war reserves. That approach lets Moscow sustain larger, more frequent salvos. Its stockpile stays intact for the occasional very large barrage. Unmanned Systems Forces commander Major Robert "Magyar" Brovdi put numbers on the trend. Russia can already loose a simultaneous salvo of 77 missiles, and it is pushing toward 200. He stressed that he meant weapons of all types, not ballistics alone. Kalibr cruise missiles, by contrast, are piling up unused. Moscow is shipping them to fleets beyond the Black Sea as Ukrainian crews down nearly all of them. Repeated strikes have meanwhile driven the Black Sea Fleet back to the port of Novorossiysk.

"The Patriot shortage hands Russia an opening to do serious damage over the winter — and a reason to keep meaningful talks at bay," - Institute for the Study of War assessed

Why the Patriot interceptor shortage stalls negotiations

This reprioritization feeds a winter strategy meant to break Ukraine's will to fight, ISW assessed. The Patriot is still the only system Kyiv fields that can down Russian ballistic missiles. And Kyiv has warned partners it cannot close the interceptor gap before the cold months. As a result, the Kremlin thinks it can hammer cities without paying a battlefield price. That calculation could drag the war into 2027, ISW noted. Putin's theory of victory still rests on outlasting Ukraine's defenses and Western resolve. On 9 August, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin restated Moscow's line. Any "freeze" that ignores the war's "root causes" is unacceptable, he said — shorthand for the Kremlin's original demands.

Russia struck the capital with ballistic missiles early on 11 August. One of them came down on the grounds of a Kyiv children's hospital in the Shevchenkivskyi district. Rescuers also fought a warehouse fire nearby that left one man injured.

The Kyiv children's hospital strike

Two craters opened on the hospital grounds, while the impact shattered windows and ruptured a gas line, rescuers reported. Utility crews sealed the leak within the hour. Staff at the Kyiv children's hospital had moved patients into the shelter before the strike, so it hurt no one there.

"Luckily, the children and medics were in the shelter — there were no casualties," - State Emergency Service reported

A warehouse ablaze and one man hurt

At a second address in the same district, a strike ignited a fire across 1,200 square meters of warehouse space. Crews first contained the flames, then put them out. Medics soon treated the lone casualty, a 28-year-old man. Earlier, the Air Force had warned of the ballistic threat before the missiles arrived.

Kyiv Oblast also under fire

The wider Kyiv Oblast took damage as well. In the Bucha district, the strike wrecked warehouse buildings and three trucks, although it caused no casualties. Officials said the enemy had again hit the region with ballistic missiles and attack drones.

A far deadlier night beyond Kyiv

Elsewhere, the toll climbed sharply. In Zaporizhzhia, a combined missile and guided-bomb strike killed six people and injured 19, regional authorities reported. Across the oblast, meanwhile, Russian forces launched 938 strikes on 58 settlements in a single day, injuring 52 residents in total. Officials also logged 341 reports of damage to homes, vehicles, and infrastructure.

In central Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, drones and artillery hit five districts more than 20 times. The strikes killed three people, among them a 15-year-old boy, and hurt five others, including a 7-year-old girl. To the northeast, an attack on Zlatopil in Kharkiv Oblast damaged civilian infrastructure and injured a resident.

Meanwhile, in Mykolaiv, drones hurt a 75-year-old woman and damaged homes and an industrial site, and officials described her condition as satisfactory. In nearby Snihurivka, six more drone strikes damaged houses, a shop, and a car, though they caused no injuries.

The strikes add to a wave of Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities this summer. The capital had already endured ballistic missiles days earlier, on the night of 8 August. That evening, explosions also echoed through Kyiv and Dnipro during a mass drone assault.