The US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts that Ukraine's grain exports will fall steeply in the 2026-27 season, with corn shipments dropping 39% to 14 million tonnes and wheat 26% to 10.8 million, World Grain reported. The agency tied the decline to Russia's summer campaign against the Odesa ports, which handle roughly 90% of the country's grain.

The forecast puts Washington's own numbers behind what Kyiv has warned for weeks. Ukraine's agriculture ministry projects farm exports could fall by almost half this season, and the FAS estimate — from a body with no stake in Ukraine's budget — points the same way. The difference is where the FAS looks: not at the ships that cannot sail, but at the grain that cannot follow them out.

Grain with nowhere to go

The clearest sign of the blockage is in ending stocks — grain left sitting in the country when the season closes. The FAS expects Ukraine's corn stocks to jump more than tenfold, to 13.5 million tonnes from 1.3 million, and wheat stocks to more than double to 8.2 million. That is grain the harvest produced and the ports could not move.

Ukraine has more than 74 million tonnes of storage for grain and oilseeds, the FAS noted, including about 23 million tonnes of certified warehouse space. Even so, the agriculture ministry has said the country may need another 10 to 12 million tonnes of temporary storage to get through the corn harvest if the Black Sea disruptions continue — most acutely in regions near the front line.

Why Odesa decides the harvest

Almost everything moves through Odesa. Three deepwater ports in Odesa Oblast carry more than 90% of Ukraine's farm exports, and Russia spent the summer hitting them and the ships that call there. Missiles struck the Turkish-owned bulk carrier Golden Leo as it left Odesa loaded with grain on 19 July, killing 10. Days earlier, a Russian drone hit a Palau-flagged corn ship twice as it sailed for Greece.

The land routes that remain — rail, road, and the Danube — cannot take up the slack, and traders have pulled back from buying grain they have no way to ship.

Farming is Ukraine's biggest export earner, bringing in more than half of what the country made selling goods abroad last year. Ukraine is also among the world's largest corn suppliers, which is why a cut of this size registers well beyond its own budget. For the farmers holding this year's crop, the FAS forecast describes a harvest they may not be able to sell.

The European Union has reached a long-term trade agreement with Ukraine, marking the end of wartime trade liberalisation measures, though key details of the deal remain undisclosed.

EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic and Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen announced the agreement on June 30, calling it a "predictable" and "reciprocal" framework. However, they did not reveal the final quotas or volumes included in the deal. Sefcovic noted that the finer points would be finalised "in the coming days."

The new deal replaces the autonomous trade measures (ATMs) that allowed Ukrainian agri-food exports to enter the EU tariff-free since 2022. Those temporary measures expired on June 5, reinstating pre-war trade conditions for a brief period.

Structured in three tiers, the new framework introduces modest increases in quotas for products considered sensitive by EU member states, such as eggs, poultry, sugar, wheat, maize, and honey. A second group of products—including butter, skimmed milk powder, oats, barley, malt, and gluten—will see their quotas adjusted to reflect peak import levels reached since the start of the war. A third category, which includes items such as whole milk powder, fermented milk, mushrooms, and grape juice, will be fully liberalised.

Once finalised, the text of the agreement will be submitted to the Council for ratification.

Sefcovic said negotiations concluded over the weekend, less than a month after formal talks began. However, some critics claim the EU delayed the process to avoid backlash from farmers ahead of Poland’s presidential election.

The agreement also benefits EU producers, granting them greater access to the Ukrainian market for goods like pork, poultry, and sugar. But Hansen made it clear that expanded access for Ukrainian exports will depend on Ukraine’s compliance with EU agricultural standards by 2028, including rules on animal welfare and pesticide use. "This commitment also fits perfectly with Ukraine's EU accession path," he said.

The deal includes safeguard provisions, allowing the EU or individual member states to restrict imports if domestic markets face serious disruptions. “Both EU and Ukrainian producers deserve a stable and predictable basis for the future development of bilateral trade,” Hansen added.

Smashing previous monthly record, Russia launches 5,337 kamikaze drones against Ukraine during June

Russia launched a record 5,337 Shahed-type drones against Ukraine in June, according to data from the Ukrainian Air Force and Dragon Capital, smashing the previous record of 4,198 set in March. Russia’s bombardments, a fact of life after three years of full-scale war, have intensified dramatically in May

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk