The world has grown accustomed to drone warfare as scattered strikes — the occasional Shahed hitting a Ukrainian city, maybe a dozen drones in a night, perhaps fifty during a major assault.

That was just the prologue.

Russia is now a step away from the capacity to launch thousands of drones simultaneously — not spread across weeks, but in a single coordinated strike that can overwhelm Ukraine’s entire air defense network.

In just three years, what began as a manageable threat has evolved into a relentless campaign that threatens to fundamentally change modern warfare.

Russia is building toward 2,000-drone simultaneous strikes

According to Christina Harward, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, Moscow now produces approximately 2,700 Shahed drones per month, alongside 2,500 decoy drones. This production capacity means Russia can already launch over 300 or even 400 drones in a single night.

Additionally, the Kremlin is actively building new facilities and will soon be capable of launching between 1,000 and 2,000 drones simultaneously. Ukraine now faces an unprecedented drone war that dwarfs anything seen in previous conflicts.

The evidence for this escalation sits in last year’s attack data. In 2024, Russia launched 11,162 long-range drones against Ukrainian cities, critical infrastructure, defense industries, and increasingly, military positions. Ukraine’s air defenses performed admirably — neutralizing 90.2% of incoming drones. However, approximately 1,100 drones still reached their targets.

The missile campaign hit even harder. Russia fired 3,063 missiles of various types throughout 2024. Of these missiles, 58.5% (1,792 missiles) successfully reached their targets.

These success rates expose critical gaps in Ukraine’s air defense network. While Ukrainian forces managed to down 67% of cruise missiles like the Kalibr Kh-555/101, and R-500, they only intercepted only:

• 33% of Zircon missiles
• 25% of the Kinzhal missiles
• 22% of all Kh-59s, Kh-35s, and Kh-31s
• 4,5% of all Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
• 0,63% of S-300/400
• 0.55% of the Kh-22s and Kh-32s.

Each missile that gets through translates directly into destroyed infrastructure and civilian casualties, carrying a bill that stretches far beyond the initial explosion.

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Ukraine just declared open season on Russia’s drone nests in urgent strategy shift

The $524-billion destruction bill that will outlast the war

A United Nations Development Programme report estimates that $524 billion will be required for Ukraine’s reconstruction over the next decade — a sum that represents multiple years of the country’s pre-war GDP.

The physical destruction shows why that number is so staggering. By November 2024, Russian attacks had damaged or destroyed 236,000 residential buildings, over 4,000 educational institutions, 1,554 medical facilities, and nearly 500 large and medium-sized enterprises. Entire neighborhoods in major cities have been reduced to rubble.

Ukraine’s energy sector became a particular target. After 13 massive coordinated attacks throughout 2024, the country can only generate 15 gigawatts of power — 3-4 GW less than peak demand. That gap means millions of people lose heating during sub-zero winters, hospitals operate on backup generators, and factories shut down production lines that supply global markets.

2025 forecast: 78,000 drone strikes replacing missile terror

However, the current crisis seems to be just the warm-up for what Russia has planned for 2025.

From the beginning of the year, Russia has already launched 32 large-scale drone and missile strikes — 16 of them have already became the war’s largest. As of July 24, Russia launched more than 27,780 Shahed drones and decoys, with the monthly numbers increasing by approximately 1,000 since April.

If the monthly increase continues, Ukraine faces 78,000 drone strikes — seven times more than in 2024. That’s equivalent to about 2,800-3,000 tons of high explosives.

Russia’s missile strategy tells a different story. During the first half of 2025, Russia launched over 700 missiles at Ukraine. If the trend persists, Russia is expected to launch around 2,100 missiles in total in 2025 – compared to 3,063 last year.

The shift is strategic: while Russian missile strikes might drop by 32% compared to 2024, drone strikes are likely to increase by 700%. Russia is trading expensive, limited missiles for cheap, mass-produced drones that achieve the same destructive goals. And the strategy is working — Ukraine is presently intercepting fewer drones (85%) than last year.

Two factors explain this declining success rate: changing Russian tactics and reduced Western air defense supplies.

Explore further

Patriot missiles are Ukraine’s best defense—more are on the way

Ukraine’s next challenge: 12,000 drones that can breach defenses

Russian drones now fly higher and faster, putting them out of range of Ukrainian mobile air defense groups. They feature onboard cameras and artificial intelligence, indicating a shift from autonomous navigation to potential remote control, making interception much harder. Strike packages increasingly focus on one or two cities, synchronizing massive attacks from multiple directions and altitudes to overwhelm air defenses.

Russia also deploys stealthy drones as scouts and decoys to pinpoint Ukrainian air defense positions.

Meanwhile, the inflow of air defense systems, missiles, and ammunition has been inadequate since the war began — not from lack of Western commitment, but from lack of available weapons and ammunition in the West.

The US has also paused defense aid on at least four occasions since October 2023. On 4 June, the Trump administration diverted 20,000 anti-drone missiles originally meant for Ukraine to American forces in the Middle East.

Unless Ukraine’s air defense is significantly strengthened in 2025, up to 1,300 Russian missiles and 12,000 drones might breach air defenses and strike their targets.

Since Ukraine’s defense industrial base remains a primary target, continued escalation could force Ukrainian forces into supply shortages that determine the war’s outcome.

Ukraine’s three-part response: domestic production, offensive strikes, defensive networks

The only way to end the missile and drone strikes is to end the war. All other measures will at best reduce the scale and scope of the strikes — but not stop them.

Russia shows no intention of ending the war before achieving its strategic objectives. As international efforts to force Moscow’s compliance have failed, the number of Russian attacks will continue rising.

Yet, Russian missiles and drones can still be countered. Several options remain available to Ukraine — starting with going on the offensive.

As Kyiv faces growing challenges securing weapons and ammunition from its partners, the development of its own industrial base remains critical. More than 40% of the weapons used at the front line are now produced domestically, with a goal of 50% within six months. In the long term, Ukraine aims to become largely self-sufficient.

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Over 95% of its drones are Ukrainian-produced, though many are financed by international partners. Ukraine’s total drone production has increased by 900% over the past year, with monthly UAV output reaching over 200,000. In 2025, it aims to produce 4 million tactical and 30,000 long-range strike drones. Overall, its drone industry has the capacity to produce up to 10 million UAVs annually but lacks funding.

Likewise, Ukrainian cruise missile production increased by 800% in 2024. Ukraine aims to produce approximately 3,000 cruise missiles and missile drones in 2025, matching Russia’s predicted output. Ukraine will be the first European country since the Cold War to produce a conventional ballistic missile.

In this light, Ukraine will focus on targeting the Russian defense industry, command and control facilities, bases, depots, and logistical hubs — actively undercutting Russia’s ability to wage war.

But offense alone cannot stop the drone swarms. Ukraine must also strengthen its defenses, and here international support becomes crucial.

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The NATO horse is dead. Europe must ride with Ukraine now.

From six Patriots to homegrown systems: Ukraine’s air defense dilemma

Supported by Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, Ukraine continues developing its missile and drone defense network. The backbone of this defense network remains long-range missile systems, particularly Patriots.

Having sustained losses, Ukraine is believed to have only six functioning Patriot batteries – two from the US, with the rest provided by the European states.

On 14 July, President Trump announced a new arrangement: Washington will sell Patriot missile defense systems and other weaponry to NATO members and its allies, who will then donate them to Ukraine. European countries have expressed willingness to purchase weapons from the US and transfer them to Ukraine.

The arrangement generates $10 billion in Foreign Military Sales for the US and insists that the Patriots must be delivered by anyone but the US. This depletes Europe’s already vulnerable air defense network at a time when war is raging on the continent.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is developing its own surface-to-air missile systems for shooting down Russian missiles. The domestically produced system aims to match Patriot capabilities while reducing dependence on US supplies.

At the same time, Kyiv is also trying to acquire other air defence systems, such as the Italian-French SAMP/T, the Norwegian NASAMS, and the German IRIS-T, to expand its air defence network.

Norway has signed an agreement to develop and deliver low-cost, high-volume air defense missiles in Ukraine. The UK has agreed to supply more than 5,000 air defense missiles from Thales. In January, Ukraine received a new container-sized air defense system called Gravehawk, jointly funded by the UK and Denmark.

But even with these systems, Ukraine faces a fundamental math problem: traditional missile-based air defenses are too expensive to use against cheap Russian drones.

The solution lies in gun-based systems. Ukraine needs more German-made Gepard anti-aircraft guns and Skynex systems. These use programmable ammunition that’s significantly cheaper than missiles and can’t be jammed by electronic countermeasures. Battlefield performance has proven their effectiveness against drones and cruise missiles.

Trump’s decision to sell weapons to Europe and Canada could accelerate the delivery of both systems and Stinger missiles to counter Russian drone attacks.

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Britain promises Ukraine 5,000 drone-killing missiles. Russia may burn through them in eight weeks

Ukraine’s $2.8-billion bet: Drones that hunt drones

Ukraine, in the meantime, is developing its own solution: interceptor drones that hunt enemy drones in flight.

Medio May, the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reported that Ukrainian forces had begun systematically downing Russian Shahed/Gerans UAVs with the help of interceptor drones. Fighters from the Darknode unit from the 412th Nemesis Regiment had successfully destroyed 100 long-range drones.

The Kyiv “Clear Sky” initiative demonstrates how this works. The program uses domestically produced interceptor drones to protect the city’s airspace, including specialized training centers and mobile rapid-response units. During its pilot phase, the project intercepted nearly 650 enemy drones with only 12 active crews — a network that has already expanded outside of Kyiv with plans to roll it out across the country.

The success of programs like Clear Sky has driven national-scale procurement. Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency has contracted tens of thousands of domestically produced interceptor drones worth $2.8 billion — more than a third of its total 2025 budget.

Ukraine is also purchasing interceptor drones from international partners, including a strategic agreement with the American company Swift Beat to supply hundreds of thousands of drones by the end of 2025. One of its AI-enhanced models is currently the most effective drone interceptor on the battlefield: the company’s drones have downed about 90% of all Shaheds downed by drones until now. 

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No aid? No problem. Ukraine’s engineers hit Russia 7,000 times with homegrown tech

The path ahead

Ukraine faces a fast-escalating Russian strike campaign targeting its defense manufacturing — increasingly crucial as Western aid falters. Most pledged air defense systems won’t arrive until 2026-2028. Ukrainian interceptor drones remain the only immediate solution to the escalating drone war.

The stakes extend beyond military hardware. Ukraine’s resilience rests on interlinking strengths: military adaptation, economic transformation, societal unity, and institutional innovation. These pillars enabled Ukraine not just to survive, but to evolve under immense pressure. Massive Russian strikes threaten to undermine them all.

Russia’s ability to continue to escalate drone terror remains unimpeded unless the West revises its present strategy. Supported by China and Iran, Russia will scale up drone production while the weapons evolve — flying higher, faster, becoming stealthier and more resistant to electronic warfare.

It is time to take off the gloves. Ukraine needs long-range strike capability to target the Russian defense industry without restrictions. Europe must provide combat aircraft and ground-based air defense to bolster Ukraine’s network.

Most importantly, Europe must abandon wishful thinking. A coalition of like-minded countries must mobilize their own defense industries to deliver the capabilities needed to protect Europe — alongside Ukraine.

Europe’s first line of defence starts, after all, in Ukraine.

Hans Petter Midttun

Hans Petter Midttun, independent analyst on hybrid warfare, Non-Resident Fellow at the…

Editor’s note. The opinions expressed in our Opinion section belong to their authors. Euromaidan Press’ editorial team may or may not share them.

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A major shift in battlefield momentum is the only lever that could move the Kremlin, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses. The think tank’s report on 21 July says only severe Russian military setbacks, enabled by Western-supplied weaponry, could push Russian President Vladimir Putin toward serious negotiations.

Putin won’t talk peace without battlefield collapse

British Defense Secretary John Healey, speaking at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting on 21 July, announced a “50-day drive” to accelerate arms deliveries to Ukraine. He stressed the urgency of the effort, pointing to US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose “severe” 100% secondary tariffs on Russia’s trade partners if a peace deal isn’t reached within 50 days from 14 July.

ISW reaffirmed that “ISW has consistently assessed that only significant Russian battlefield setbacks, enabled by timely and sufficient Western military assistance to Ukrainian forces, will force Putin to reconsider Russia’s ability to militarily defeat Ukraine and bring him to the negotiating table.”

However, such setbacks “will not happen in a matter of weeks and will likely require several months or campaign seasons” — but only if Western governments provide Ukrainian forces with timely and adequate support for large-scale operations.

Ukraine expands defense production to meet the moment

Ukraine aims to scale up weapons production and can absorb $6 billion in investment, officials said, emphasizing the need to boost output of FPV and interceptor drones.

Procurement chief Zhumadilov said contracts were signed with Ukrainian and US firms to build counter-Shahed drone systems. Ukraine can produce up to 10 million FPV drones annually, though next year’s procurement may not exceed 4.5 million due to funding limits.

New round of negotiations still clouded by Kremlin stalling

Ukraine has proposed a third round of peace talks in Istanbul, with discussions possibly starting as soon as 22 July. Russia confirmed the offer through TASS, suggesting 24 or 25 July as possible dates.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed Moscow was on board but would send the same mid-level delegation as before. ISW said this reflects a lack of seriousness, noting previous talks led only to POW exchange after Russia refused to outline its terms.

According to ISW, Moscow’s intent remains to stall for time, keep fighting, and pressure Ukraine and the West. There’s no indication Putin’s objectives have shifted.

Russia launched over 400 drones on 21 July. The same day, Ukrainian allies announced 200,000 shells for the Gepard air defense system at the 29th meeting in the Ramstein format. 

In addition, Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal, who took office on 17 July, stated that the US has initiated a new mechanism with NATO, allowing European countries to purchase American weapons specifically for Kyiv.

During the meeting, Germany announced it would contribute five Patriot systems, which will be delivered to Ukraine “soon.” Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed he had agreed with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on supplying them, RBC-Ukraine reports. The Patriots are the only assets Ukraine has capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles. 

Berlin is also supplying over 200,000 shells for the Gepard system and will fund the procurement of Ukrainian long-range drones. 

“The parties will coordinate actions to achieve this goal in the coming days,” Pistorius added.

Other aid from allies:

• Canada: 20 million CAD for the maintenance of Ukrainian tanks + support via the Danish model.
• The Netherlands: €200 million for interceptor drones, €125 million for F-16 maintenance.
• Norway: €1 billion for drones in 2025, including €400 million for Ukrainian manufacturers.
• Sweden: Preparing a new package with air defense, artillery, and equipment.

This meeting was co-organized by the defense ministers of the United Kingdom and Germany, John Healey and Boris Pistorius. Representatives from 52 countries and international organizations participated in it.

Key guests included: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Christopher G. Cavoli, and EU High Representative Kaja Kallas.

According to Denys Shmyhal, the meeting was “more technical and coordination-focused,” concentrating on the procurement of American weapons for Ukraine.

He paid special attention to financial support: “Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover this year’s procurement deficit. This will enable us to create more FPV drones, more interceptor drones to counter ‘Shahed’ drones, and additional long-range weapons.”

Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover this year’s procurement deficit. During the latest online meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in the Ramstein format on 21 July, new Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal addressed partners and called for continued support.

This was the first meeting following Shmyhal’s appointment as Defense Minister, replacing Rustem Umerov. The UK and Germany co-chaired the meeting. Participants included US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and NATO’s new commander in Europe, Alexus Grynkievich.

According to Denys Shmyhal, the meeting was “more technical and coordination-focused,” concentrating on the procurement of American weapons for Ukraine. At the call, he emphasized that Patriot air defense systems and interceptor missiles are “critically important for protecting Ukrainian cities” as Russia escalated its attacks on civilians. 

He paid special attention to financial support: “Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover this year’s procurement deficit. This will enable us to create more FPV drones, more interceptor drones to counter ‘Shahed’ drones, and additional long-range weapons.”

Previously, US President Donald Trump announced that he would impose strict secondary tariffs on Russia and its allies if a peace agreement on Ukraine is not reached within the next 50 days. However, a recent Russian attack serves as an indicator that Moscow is just using this time to kill more Ukrainians. 

The Ukrainian defense minister also stated the need for sustained support in 2026 and for Ukraine’s inclusion in the European SAFE credit program, a “critically important source of funding for next year.”

Although Ukraine is not a formal member of the initiative, in 2025, the EU granted it associate partner status, recognizing Ukraine’s security as integral to that of Europe. This allows Kyiv to participate in joint defense projects and access funding from SAFE’s credit facility, which totals up to €150 billion. 

Ukrainian factories building drones to down Russian aircraft are changing the face of modern air defense — one low-cost interceptor at a time. On 18 July, the New York Post published a reportage about its journalists visiting two drone production facilities in Kyiv. The publication got an inside look at how Ukraine is confronting drone warfare with ingenuity and affordability.

Kyiv engineers race to scale drone interceptors

The New York Post says Nomad Drones and a second, anonymous company are leading a new surge in Ukrainian factories building drones. These interceptors are crafted specifically to neutralize Russian-launched Shaheds, which cost around $50,000 apiece. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s new models are dramatically cheaper — priced between $3,000 and $7,000, depending on type and size.

Nomad Drones co-founder and CEO Andrii Fedorov explained the concept to the NYP.

“In Ukraine, there is a phrase people have been using — that ‘quantity’ becomes ‘quality,’” he said.

According to Fedorov, deploying a $1 million missile to destroy a $50,000 drone makes no economic sense.

“If you have 20 drones, then the capacity costs you, say, $40,000 to shoot it down.”

Cost-effective jamming-proof drones

Nomad’s aircraft are designed for cost-effective lethality. Equipped with fiber-optic cables, they avoid jamming and reach enemy drones undetected by radars. Each unit carries explosives and can be detonated remotely on approach. That ability is critical against fast-moving targets like Shaheds, often launched in swarms across Ukrainian airspace.

A second firm — unnamed in the report due to repeated Russian strikes on its facility — builds a meter-long missile-style interceptors. That company continues operating despite multiple attacks.

“It’s all about cost-effectiveness,” an employee said. “Western technologies are so cool and modern — they are expensive at the same time.”

Built for war, priced for survival

The strategy centers on affordability, speed, and scalable output. Nomad Drones and others now produce tens of thousands of interceptors monthly. These low-cost systems are not meant to endure — they’re made to fly once, explode midair, and protect civilian lives.

Tis model contrasts sharply with existing Western air defense systems, which rely heavily on expensive precision strikes. With Russia launching over 700 drones in a single night last week, Ukrainian engineers have prioritized high-volume production as the only viable path forward.

Ukrainian pilots to gain greater chances in the sky due to Paris’s support. After an hour-long meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on 18 July, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that France is ready to continue training Mirage fighter jet pilots on its own territory.

“I want to specifically highlight our agreement on Mirage pilot training: France is ready to accept additional pilots for training on additional aircraft,” said Zelenskyy.

Among other key issues was the strengthening of Ukraine’s air defense system. The two leaders discussed the supply of missiles for modern SAMP/T systems and the launch of a joint project to fund interceptor drones. Zelenskyy noted that relevant decisions will be prepared at the level of both countries’ defense ministries.

The Ukrainian president also thanked France for its active role in promoting the EU’s 18th package of sanctions and confirmed that Kyiv and Washington are working together so that “Russia feels truly global pressure.”

The EU agreed on a new package after the bloc’s ambassadors reached consensus on restrictions targeting key sectors of the Russian economy. Malta and Slovakia reportedly lifted their vetoes after receiving critical assurances. 

The new Russia sanctions package will include a formal ban on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said the bloc would also reduce the oil price cap as part of efforts to cut the Kremlin’s war revenues.

Ukraine is deploying a new generation of air-defense drones—fast, lightweight, and highly maneuverable—designed specifically to intercept and destroy Russia’s Iranian-designed Shahed attack drones.

With peace negotiations stalled and Russian aerial attacks intensifying, Kyiv is turning to homegrown technology to fill a critical defense gap. Massive waves of Shahed drones have made traditional missile systems economically unsustainable, prompting the rapid deployment of tens of thousands of compact, low-cost interceptors.

What these interceptor drones are

According to Forbes tech correspondent David Hambling, Ukraine’s interceptors mark a technical leap in drone warfare, prioritizing speed, scalability, and affordability:

• Lightweight and aerodynamic: Designs include bullet-shaped quadcopters (like Wild Hornets’ Sting) and delta-wing drones, built for high-speed, high-altitude engagement.
• Vertical engagement capability: These drones can climb to intercept Shaheds flying at over 10,000 feet (≈3 kilometers)—well above the reach of ground-based machine guns.
• Radar and visual guidance: Integrated into a nationwide sensor and command system, they are coordinated to track and strike slow-moving aerial threats.
• Low cost: Priced at just $1,000 to $5,000 per unit, they’re dramatically cheaper than the $3.3 million US Patriot missiles used to counter other threats.

What Russia is saying

Even figures within Russia’s defense-industrial elite have acknowledged the growing impact of Ukraine’s interceptor efforts. Alexey Rogozin—former CEO of Ilyushin and a senior figure in Russia’s military aviation sector—wrote on Telegram that Ukraine had effectively constructed a local anti-drone network over Kyiv:

“In fact, we are talking about an urban anti-drone dome built on the mass use of small-sized interceptors,” he said, referring to the Clear Sky initiative.

Rogozin claimed that more than 500 Shaheds had been intercepted under this system. While he maintained that large drone waves could still overwhelm defenses, he conceded that the cost dynamic has shifted:

“Now it is more expensive to attack than to defend.”

However, the system is not foolproof. Despite the deployment of interceptors, Kyiv continues to experience Shahed strikes, and explosions remain a frequent occurrence. Interception rates have reportedly improved, but with systems still scaling up, real-world effectiveness remains incomplete.

Why Ukraine is using them

Russia’s Shahed drones are slow, cheap, and launched in overwhelming numbers. In June alone, Russia launched over 5,000 Shahed-type drones, including as many as 728 in a single night—far more than traditional systems like Patriots can handle.

Ukraine’s interceptors offer a cost-effective, scalable response to this flood of threats. Small, fast, and increasingly numerous, they are designed to match Russia’s production tempo.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently praised the system, stating that “hundreds of Russian-Iranian Shahed drones have been shot down this week” alone. Officials say interception rates, which had dropped due to higher-altitude attacks, are now back above 86%.

Moment a Russian Shahed drone is shot down over Odesa on Sunday morning. Some reports suggest it was intercepted by another drone. pic.twitter.com/qF5dYySMVC

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) July 11, 2025

How many are coming

According to Arsen Zhumadilov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency, the country has already signed contracts for tens of thousands of interceptor drones.

“This is what we have already contracted and will continue to contract,” Zhumadilov said in a 14 July interview with Babel. “We will definitely contract everything that the state budget can afford.”

He added that if domestic production capacity exceeds state funding, allied nations may help finance additional units to expand coverage.

Strategic impact

Ukraine’s interceptor drone program is emerging as a flexible, affordable answer to Russia’s drone warfare campaign—and potentially a model for other nations facing similar threats.

“Ukraine is massively scaling up its production of low-cost interceptor drones to stop Russia’s growing barrages of Shahed attack drones,” wrote David Hambling.

At the recent G7 summit, Zelenskyy emphasized that this technology could serve as a global solution for defending against mass drone attacks—an increasingly relevant challenge in modern warfare.

The Ukrainian capital has new rituals. At midnight, Kyiv moms drag their camping gear and babies to the nearest metro station, where they try to catch a few hours of Z’s while Russia pummels killer drones into apartment buildings all night. Others take the risk of the “bathroom shelter.“

The Iranian-designed Shahed drones whirr like lawnmowers but screech when diving on their final descent, too fast for missiles to intercept. Hiding behind two walls of the bathroom doesn’t guarantee survival if it’s a direct hit—your entire apartment will likely be vaporized.

While NATO countries study drone threats in war games, Ukraine is finding the answer to a riddle nobody has solved yet—how to counter swarms of cheap, mass-produced, deadly drones if the missiles needed to down them are ten times as expensive.

Russia says it will soon be launching up to 1,000 of these $35,000 Iranian-designed drones each night. They’ve gotten too upgraded to be shot down by gunfire, too high-flying for mobile air defenses. The West can’t produce enough interceptor missiles to match this volume, and even if they could, the cost would be prohibitive.

Is this the end of the war—will Russia terrorize Ukrainian civilians into accepting the Kremlin’s enslaving conditions?

How it feels

My bomb shelter is a bathroom floor

Not so fast, said President Zelenskyy in Rome last week. Ukrainian engineers have cracked something no NATO country has figured out: how to hunt these drones cheaply.

“We will shoot down everything. Scientists and engineers have found a solution. This is the key. We need finances. And we will raise it.”

Hours earlier, those same swarms had just finished a 10-hour bombardment of Kyiv with 400 drones and 18 missiles, leaving two people dead, 16 wounded, and apartment buildings burning across Ukraine’s capital.

Russia’s bureaucracy finally finds its groove

The pattern is consistent throughout the entire war. Ukraine is nimble with decentralized innovation. Russia’s bureaucracy moves slowly, but eventually overpowers with sheer numbers. Numbers of bodies thrown into the trenches. And now, numbers of Shaheds rammed into apartment buildings.

Putin called for 1.4 million drones annually in 2025—ten times Russia’s 2023 production. At the Alabuga facility in Tatarstan, Russia aims to build 6,000 drones by summer 2025 using Iranian blueprints and Western electronics that somehow keep trickling through sanctions.

The plan is working. Russia quintupled its Shahed campaign from 200 launches per week in September 2024 to over 1,000 weekly by March 2025. Experts warn Moscow could launch over 1,000 Shaheds daily by the end of 2025.

The upgraded Shaheds are nastier than the originals. Russian engineers reprogrammed them to approach at 2,800 meters altitude—beyond the reach of mobile air defenses—then dive at targets traveling 600 km/h while carrying 90-kilogram warheads, double the original payload.

Explore further

Shahed drones now dive like missiles—and Ukraine can’t shoot fast enough

Russian forces now target one or two cities at time instead of deploying 500 drones nationwide, flying at altitudes above 2km to stay out of reach of machine guns, Counteroffensive.Pro reported.

For months, the pendulum swung Russia’s way. Civilian casualties reached record levels—June 2025 alone saw 232 civilians killed and 1,343 wounded from drone attacks.

“Another night hunched over mobile phones in the dark,” reported Al Jazeera’s correspondent from Kyiv, describing how residents track incoming threats while “listening for that change in pitch that a Shahed engine makes when it goes into its terminal descent.”

What NATO discovered it couldn’t do

NATO has been trying to solve the same problem with typical Western approaches: expensive, complex systems designed by committee.

• The Pentagon’s most ambitious counter-swarm test in June 2024 successfully defended against up to 50 attacking drones using eight different weapon systems.
• The UK just tested radio frequency weapons against multiple drone targets simultaneously—but only at ranges up to one kilometer.

But when 400 Shaheds converge on Kyiv simultaneously from multiple axes, even a perfect grid of 1-kilometer defense bubbles would get overwhelmed by the sheer numbers attacking each sector at once. NATO’s September 2024 exercise showcased over 50 counter-drone technologies, yet Ukrainian officials who attended warned that defending European cities against drone swarms would be “near impossible.”

Ukrainian creativity strikes back

Then Ukrainian engineers did what they do best: find a cost-effective solution no Western country could crack.

The breakthrough came from Ukraine’s decentralized innovation ecosystem. Sixteen companies developed interceptor drones costing as little as $1,000 each—a fraction of Western missile costs. The budget Сhaika costs just 39,900 UAH ($950) on the Brave1 marketplace, while Sky Defenders’ ZigZag interceptor costs 128,000 UAH ($3,000), still dramatically cheaper than $430,000 IRIS-T missiles.

Ukrainian interceptors achieved a 70% kill rate against Shaheds in optimal conditions—nearly double the 35-40% success rate of traditional mobile fire groups using machine guns. Over 100 strike drones have been destroyed by Ukrainian interceptor drones as of March 2025.

The “Clean Sky” program intercepted 550 Russian drones during pilot testing, with one remarkable night operation destroying 33 enemy aircraft.

Three developers told Counteroffensive.Pro the minimum requirements:

• speed over 200 km/h (regular FPV flies at 120 km/h),
• ability to climb to 6 km altitude, terminal guidance systems,
• warheads between 600-1200 grams.

“The bigger the target, the bigger the warhead needed for more precise detonation. Because you can hit a wing, but it will only tear it off and not destroy the target itself,” Olha Bihun, CEO of Anvarix, told Counteroffensive.Pro.

Ukraine’s approach creates a budget version of Israel’s Iron Dome concept. Where Iron Dome uses $40,000-$100,000 interceptor missiles against cheap rockets, Ukraine deploys $1,000-$5,000 interceptor drones against $35,000 Shaheds. The economics look promising—but proving they work at scale remains the challenge.

Anti-Shahed strategy still a work in progress

But intercepting Shaheds isn’t like shooting down tanks with FPV drones.

Operator training takes six months, Taras Tymochko of the Come Back Alive Foundation told Counteroffensive.Pro, but Ukraine has very few training centers, forcing experienced units to spend time teaching new operators instead of focusing on interceptions.

The economics get messier under real combat conditions. While a single $2,000 interceptor against a $35,000 Shahed sounds like a winning trade, operators often need multiple attempts. Counteroffensive.Pro found that five interceptors are sometimes required to down one Shahed—suddenly that’s $10,000-$25,000 per successful intercept.

Operational challenges compound the complexity. Ukrainian electronic warfare systems meant to jam Shaheds also interfere with interceptor communications, creating coordination nightmares between different units with different equipment. Counteroffensive.Pro reported the average wait time for radar stations from Ukrainian producers reached 13 months, up from six months just half a year ago.

Weather remains a formidable enemy: rain and snow significantly degrade performance, with moisture damaging electronic components. Strong winds above 10 m/s affect flight stability, while cold temperatures reduce battery performance by up to 50%.

Current deployment covers only frontline regions and Kyiv, leaving major cities like Kharkiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia vulnerable. Despite interceptor successes, civilian casualties continue mounting. Falling debris from successful intercepts creates additional casualties: a drone intercepted above Kyiv can still fall on an apartment building, killing those beneath.

Technology is Ukraine’s chance to win the war. This is why we’re launching the David vs. Goliath defense blog to support Ukrainian engineers who are creating innovative battlefield solutions and are inviting you to join us on the journey.

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Ukraine pioneers asymmetric warfare solutions at global scale

Ukraine faces what no NATO country has solved: how to defend sleeping cities against hundreds of simultaneous drone attacks designed to terrorize civilians into political submission.

Russia’s nightly Shahed campaigns aren’t random terror. They’re a calculated military strategy to force Ukrainian mothers into metro stations with their babies, to exhaust entire populations, to break morale until Ukraine accepts Moscow’s political demands.

Every intercepted drone above Kyiv isn’t just a military victory; it’s a family that gets to sleep in their own bed.

Throughout Russia’s invasion, Ukraine keeps pulling this off: finding cheap and effective solutions that redefine how wars are fought:

• When Russia’s Black Sea Fleet dominated Ukrainian waters, Ukraine developed naval drones that forced the entire fleet to retreat from Sevastopol.
• While Western capitals worried about escalation, Ukraine trucked in dirt-cheap drones to destroy Russian bombers right in their bases in Operation Spiderweb.

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“Kill a navy for the price of a car”: Ukraine’s drones drove out Putin’s fleet from the Black Sea — then turned on his fighter jets

Now, with Shahed swarms, Ukraine is inventing the rules for hunting cheap attack drones with even cheaper interceptors.

NATO allies are watching closely. Iranian proxies are already copying Russian tactics. The technology being tested over Kyiv tonight could be protecting London, Berlin, or Washington tomorrow. Ukraine isn’t just defending itself; it’s developing the playbook for asymmetric drone warfare that every major city will eventually need.

Can Ukraine scale innovation faster than Russia scales terror?

The crucial test: can Ukraine’s decentralized creativity scale to match Russia’s industrial bureaucracy?

In 2024, Ukraine’s drone industry operated at only 37% capacity due to lack of government contracts. However, the recent $4 billion in G7 funding secured for interceptor manufacturing could turn that around.

Component shortages plague the industry. Defense Express noted that interceptor drones require expensive night vision cameras to catch Shaheds, which are typically launched in dark hours, driving up costs compared to regular FPV drones.

Russian forces adapted faster than Ukraine could scale defenses. New Shahed variants feature rear-facing cameras for evasion, programmed evasive maneuvers when detecting interceptors, and enhanced warheads carrying 90kg payloads. Russia launches dense formations of 10-15 drones simultaneously, mixing decoy drones with armed Shaheds to deplete defenses.

In previous cycles, Ukraine innovated, Russia adapted and scaled, forcing Ukraine to innovate again. But interceptor drones represent something different—a technology that demands both innovation and industrialization.

Can Ukrainian engineers prove they can master mass production too? The answer determines whether families in Ukraine sleep safely in their beds or pack camping gear for another night underground. Ukraine must win at Russia’s own game: turning clever ideas into industrial reality fast enough to counter a terror campaign designed to break civilian morale and force political submission.

Ukraine is preparing to defend against Russia’s 1000 daily drones by mass-producing interceptor drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the technology is already proven—and now Kyiv is calling on international partners to help scale it up.

Russia plans mass drone attacks to destabilize Ukraine

During a press conference in Rome on 10 July, President Zelenskyy confirmed that Russia plans to launch 700 to 1,000 drones per day in an effort to pressure Ukrainian cities and exhaust the country’s defenses.

“They want to destabilize our society through long-lasting air raids,” Zelenskyy warned.

The President added that Ukraine “will respond,” stating:

“We will shoot down everything.”

Ukraine already has the tech—but needs the money

Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine’s scientists and engineers have developed effective interceptor drones capable of countering the Iranian-designed Shahed drones commonly used by Russia.

“We have found a solution as a country,” Zelenskyy said. “Scientists and engineers have found a solution. This is the key. We need finances. And we will raise it.”

The President emphasized that with adequate funding, Ukraine could mass-produce these drones and deploy them across the front.

Interceptors show better results than “Shahed cowboys”

Recently, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported that the new interceptor drones already demonstrate a 70% success rate—nearly double the effectiveness of mobile fire teams.

However, Syrskyi noted that the interceptors still lack radar systems, and consistency is not yet guaranteed. Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces stated the drones show good results, but “it is too early to talk about consistency.”

Unmanned Systems Commander Robert “Magyar” Brovdi recently cautioned about Russia’s 1000 daily drones in the near future: he said, Moscow may soon be capable of deploying more than 1,000 Shaheds per day.