Askold Krushelnycky examines how Donald Trump’s fluctuating position on the Ukraine war has encouraged Kyiv to look closer to home to produce the weapons it needs to fight Russia

Ukraine faces a potential funding shortfall of $10-15 billion next year as the country struggles to meet reform commitments demanded by international lenders while maintaining intensive defense spending, according to a Reuters analysis.

The government currently directs most state revenues toward military operations, relying on foreign aid totaling $139 billion since Russia’s February 2022 invasion to cover social and humanitarian expenses, state data shows.

Central Bank Governor Andriy Pyshnyi revealed that only one-third of the $65 billion required for 2026-2027 has been secured, with negotiations continuing for the remainder. A survey of eight economists by the Centre for Economic Studies in Kyiv indicates Ukraine will need between $39 billion and $58 billion in external financing for 2025 alone.

“A key challenge for the government now is to look for $10-15 billion in addition to that volume of aid which partners have already pledged for 2026,” ICU investment house stated in a research note, according to Reuters.

The funding gap has widened after Ukraine missed several reform targets agreed with lenders, including judicial appointments and anti-corruption leadership positions. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decision to tighten control over the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office sparked the largest wartime street protests and drew sharp criticism from European allies.

Zelenskyy subsequently reversed course, submitting new legislation to parliament to restore institutional independence. The draft bill was scheduled for a vote on 31 July.

Two senior Senate Republicans have unveiled legislation that would enable European allies to finance US weapons donations to Ukraine, providing the most detailed framework yet for President Trump’s proposal to shift war funding to Europe, The Wall Street Journal reported on 30 July.

The Peace Act, proposed by Sens. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and Jim Risch (R-Idaho), would establish a Treasury fund to accept money from allies, allowing the Defense Secretary to pay contractors to replenish US stockpiles while continuing weapons shipments to Ukraine without compromising American military readiness, according to GOP aides familiar with the proposal.

The legislation aims to generate $5 billion to $8 billion annually, with Germany and the United Kingdom identified as likely contributors, the aides said.

“This is the fastest way to arm Ukraine as well as to minimize the strategic and military threat posed by Russia to the US and NATO,” Wicker said, according to the WSJ.

The proposal comes as Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rejection of US-led cease-fire efforts. After initially giving Putin a 50-day deadline for a cease-fire, Trump moved that deadline up to 10 days on 28 July, threatening Russia and its trading partners with new tariffs and secondary sanctions if Moscow refuses to negotiate.

Wicker, who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee, and Risch, who leads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, have discussed the legislation with the White House, which has been “largely receptive to the idea,” aides said. The plan involves passing the measure later this year as part of the annual defense policy bill.

The mechanism would complement existing European payments to US contractors for new weapon production, which can take years to complete. The Peace Act would accelerate delivery by tapping existing US inventories, according to the WSJ report.

The US has provided nearly $66 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion, but the Republican-led Congress shows little appetite for authorizing additional foreign aid packages.

Trump has approximately $3.85 billion in previously authorized drawdown authority remaining, though he has not yet used this tool to send new arms packages to Ukraine. His administration continues delivering previously approved weapons packages from the Biden era, following a brief Pentagon pause in certain munitions earlier this month.

European Commissioner for Transport and Tourism Apostolos Tzitzikostas has warned that Europe’s roads, bridges and railways cannot support rapid movement of tanks, troops and military supplies in case of war with Russia, Financial Times reported on 29 July.

“If Nato’s tanks were called to respond to an invasion by Moscow’s forces across the EU’s eastern border, they would get stuck in tunnels, cause bridges to collapse and get snarled up in border protocols,” Tzitzikostas told the publication.

The Greek commissioner outlined plans to spend €17 billion ($20 bn) on overhauling continental infrastructure to boost military mobility.

“We have old bridges that need to be upgraded. We have narrow bridges that need to be widened. And we have nonexistent bridges to be built,” he said.

Current infrastructure poses significant obstacles for military operations. European trucks typically weigh up to 40 tonnes, while tanks reach 70 tonnes. “The reality today is that if we want to move military equipment and troops from the western side of Europe to the eastern side, it takes weeks and in some cases months,” Tzitzikostas added.

The European Union is developing a strategy to ensure troops can move “in a matter of hours, maximum a matter of days” in response to an attack. The plan involves upgrading 500 infrastructure projects along four military corridors across the continent.

These projects, identified in conjunction with NATO and the alliance’s military commanders, remain confidential for security reasons. Brussels also plans to reduce bureaucracy to prevent “tanks being stuck in paperwork” when crossing borders, according to Tzitzikostas.

The strategy, set to be presented later this year, forms part of broader war preparations amid warnings of possible confrontation with Moscow and expected reduction in US military presence in Europe.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned in June that Russia could attack alliance members by 2030. German Federal Intelligence Service assessments indicate Russia views itself in systemic conflict with the West and is preparing for major war with NATO.

EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius shared Western intelligence assessments that Russian attack on EU states could occur within the next few years.

The Russians are continuing to vacation while war rages on. As Russian missiles rain down on Ukrainian cities, Russian citizens are sunbathing undisturbed on the beaches of France, Italy, and Spain, The Telegraph reports.

Visas for Russians despite the war

Despite Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine and ongoing sanctions, Europe continues to welcome Russian tourists. Overnight stays by Russians in French and Italian hotels rose by 19% over the past year.

These countries, both NATO and EU members, are still opening their doors to citizens of the aggressor state.

“In the fourth year of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, it is extremely surprising to see statistics showing an increase in the number of visas issued to Russian citizens,” emphasized Ukraine’s Ambassador to the EU, Vsevolod Chentsov.

France and Italy keep their doors open

France, a member of the “Coalition of the Willing” and an active supporter of Ukraine, is in no hurry to restrict tourist flows from Russia. Along with Italy, it advocates keeping borders open, at least for “wealthy Russians.”

“There are many Russians who support the war, and particularly the Russians who have money. What we absolutely don’t want to do is allow these Russians to enjoy the privileges and resources of Europe, while at the same time they’re supporting Putin’s war efforts,” said financier and anti-Putin activist Bill Browder.

Hybrid warfare and EU security

Experts believe that access for Russians is not only morally questionable but also a security risk. Browder calls for a ban on entry for Russian citizens unless they can prove they oppose Putin’s regime.

He stressed that denying visas can pressure the Putin regime and reduce the security threat posed by Russia’s hybrid war against the West. 

Despite a ban on direct flights, dozens of travel routes between Russia and Europe still operate via Türkiye, Georgia, and Serbia. Meanwhile, Ukraine pays in blood for every day of freedom, as Europe hosts those who support the aggressor.

It comes as Russian launched a devastating missile attack on Mykolaiv, southern Ukraine

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Unexpected results from a social survey have stunned observers. According to research by the SCIO agency in cooperation with the portal Rozhovory so Šimonom, 14% of Slovaks surveyed openly want to join Russia, and another 18% consider this possibility.

The idea is most supported by students and the unemployed, which, according to SCIO analyst Martin Klu, rather reflects economic instability and disappointment with the country’s Western course than genuine loyalty to the Kremlin.

Attitudes toward military neutrality

Respondents were also separately asked about military neutrality. Here, 32.5% opposed neutrality if it led to a decline in living standards. Meanwhile, 15% support neutrality under any circumstances.

Socio-economic distribution of views

The least support for the ideas of “neutrality” and “Russian integration” is observed among people with higher education, urban residents, and citizens with above-average incomes. Analysts believe this is linked to the economic stability and better prospects of these groups.

European Parliament lawmakers are pushing to accelerate the EU’s ban on Russian gas imports by one year, moving the deadline from January 2028 to January 2027, Reuters reported on 25 July.

The EU vowed to reduce its dependence on Russian gas following the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The bloc cut imports by more than half since 2022 through diversification to other suppliers and increased LNG (liquefied natural gas) purchases.

The recent proposal comes from deputies representing the Parliament’s largest political group, the European People’s Party, and the Greens, who favor a tougher stance than the European Commission’s June proposal. 

Vaidere has also proposed requiring governments to impose penalties on companies that violate the ban, “potentially including by revoking licences for energy trading,” Reuters reported. Niinisto wants a full ban on Russian oil imports from January 2027, which the European Commission did not propose.

The European Parliament will vote in autumn to confirm its negotiating position with EU countries. The final measures require approval from both Parliament and a qualified majority of EU member states. It means that Hungary and Slovakia cannot block the decision despite their continued imports of Russian pipeline gas and opposition to EU-wide bans.

Under the Commission’s original proposal, the EU would begin phasing out Russian gas imports under new and short-term contracts from January 2026, with complete elimination by January 2028.

Russian gas supplied about 19% of Europe’s needs last year through the TurkStream pipeline and LNG shipments, down from roughly 45% before Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This share is expected to fall to 13% in 2025 as the EU works to end what it calls “decades-old energy relations with Europe’s former top gas supplier.”

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on 25 July proposed “strategic cooperation” with Ukraine instead of full European Union membership, arguing that Kyiv’s EU accession would bring the war with Russia directly into Europe’s core.

The Hungarian government, widely viewed as the EU’s most pro-Russian leadership, has blocked or delayed military aid to Ukraine, maintained ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and repeatedly echoed Kremlin narratives regarding the war.

“EU membership for Ukraine would drag the war into the heart of Europe, a risk our families should not have to face,” Orban wrote on X. “These times call for calm judgement, not theatrical threats.”

The Hungarian leader outlined his country’s alternative approach as “pragmatic, flexible, and rooted in mutual interest — not irreversible integration.” This position puts Hungary at odds with 26 other EU member states, which on 26 July declared support for continued accession talks with Ukraine and agreed to consider the European Commission’s assessment that Ukraine is ready to open the “Fundamentals” cluster of negotiations.

Orban characterized Ukraine as a “buffer state” and drew parallels to Hungary’s Cold War experience.

The Hungarian government has cited domestic opposition to Ukraine’s EU membership as justification for its stance. In a national consultation announced 26 June, Budapest claimed 95% of participants rejected Kyiv’s accession. Orban publicly voted against Ukrainian membership and shared a photo of his ballot in April.

However, the poll’s credibility faced scrutiny. Opposition leader Peter Magyar dismissed the consultation as a “government propaganda campaign” and cited internal data from Magyar Posta indicating only 3-7% of mailed ballots were returned.

Telex reported that the voting system could be manipulated, with testing showing users could vote twice using different email addresses.

Ukraine applied for EU membership shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 and received candidate status within months. As an EU member, Hungary holds veto power over Ukraine’s accession progress.

Earlier in July, Orban claimed that most EU countries would vote against Ukrainian membership if “national referendums” were held, similar to Hungary’s consultation. Political director and advisor to Orban, Balazs Orban, recently stated that Ukraine’s war against Russia is not fought for Hungary’s security.

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Ukraine is preparing for a new phase of the war. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul says Kyiv forces will receive secret weapons to “influence” Russia’s territory, Zeit reports.

Wadephul emphasizes that European partners are now working intensively on the weapons delivery for Ukraine. He explains that the issue is not about finances but about the defense industry’s production capacity. 

“Ukraine has the right to defend itself against attacks. It will also have the ability to affect Russian territory, but we will not reveal to Putin what weapon systems we are supplying to Ukraine,” Wadephul states.

He has not mentioned specific names or dates for the deliveries. Separately, Wadephul says he had stopped looking for logic in the Russian terror against Ukrainian civilians.

“He will stop only when he realizes his plan isn’t working,” the German minister concludes.

In July, Germany announced it would supply five Patriot systems, which are to be delivered to Ukraine “soon.” Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed he had reached an agreement with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on the delivery. The Patriots are the only systems Ukraine has that can intercept Russian ballistic missiles.

Berlin also announced plans to supply over 200,000 shells for Gepard systems capable of shooting down Russian drones, and to fund the purchase of Ukrainian long-range drones to strike targets deep in the Russian rear.

Move has alarmed Ukrainians amid fears that chief prosecutor, a Zelensky loyalist, could reassign corruption probes