Ukraine may replicate Brazil’s model for localizing production of the Swedish JAS 39 Gripen E/F fighters. The first domestically assembled aircraft could appear as early as 2034–2035, according to Defense Express. 

The Gripen E is a 4++-generation multirole fighter capable of speeds up to Mach 2, equipped with advanced radar, AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles, and precision strike capability. 

Gradual expansion of Ukrainian defense industry participation in Gripen's assembly

According to Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal, assembly is planned under the Brazil model to begin in 2033, with Ukrainian defense industry involvement gradually expanding, starting from kit assembly and moving toward manufacturing individual components directly in Ukraine.

Preparatory work, including the establishment of new production lines and training of specialists, is scheduled to start by 2030. Initially, assembly will rely on kits, with full-cycle production to be rolled out later.

The first 22–24 Gripen E/F fighters will be produced directly by Saab in Sweden, while the remaining approximately 125 aircraft will be assembled in Ukraine.

If a formal agreement with Saab is signed in 2026, deliveries of the first jets from Sweden are expected to begin around 2035. Preliminary calculations suggest that full production of 150 fighters could be completed between 2045 and 2050.

Gripen E/F to become Ukraine's main combat aircraft for decades

The first Gripen aircraft to arrive in Ukraine will be used Gripen C/D jets, which Sweden plans to deliver in 2026. These aircraft will provide an interim rearmament stage for the Air Force before production of the new E/F version begins.

Experts emphasize that the Gripen E/F will become Ukraine’s primary combat aircraft for decades.

“Gripen is the aircraft that Ukrainian pilots will be flying well into 2070 and beyond,” the analysts predict.

Saab is also reportedly exploring options for a parallel production line in Canada due to growing international demand.

Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on 7 November that Ukraine plans to localize production of Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets starting in 2033, according to a government briefing.

The announcement follows an agreement between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. On 6 November, the defense ministries of both countries worked out the details of the deal, which includes negotiations for the supply of 150 Gripen E/F class aircraft.

"Yesterday, a memorandum was also signed between one of the Ukrainian companies and Saab regarding the future localization of Gripens in Ukraine," Shmyhal said. "We expect that from 2033, the Gripen will be significantly localized in Ukraine, its production – from large-unit assembly to localization of individual parts."

Shmyhal added that discussions are ongoing about transferring Gripen C/D class aircraft to Ukraine as soon as possible, with negotiations focusing on 2026 as a potential delivery date.

Ukraine and Sweden have agreed to establish two working groups. The first, a technical group, will handle preparations for receiving the fighters and their deployment in Ukraine. The second, a financial group, will work on contract details.

On 22 October, Ukraine and Sweden signed a letter of intent regarding the purchase of at least 100 Gripen aircraft for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The first fighters could arrive in Ukraine as early as 2026, with payment proposed through frozen Russian assets.

Saab AB executive Micael Johansson told the Financial Times on October 27 that the company is considering establishing a facility in Ukraine to assemble Gripen fighters.

On 6 November, Sweden's Ministry of Defense reported that new Gripens for Ukraine could be partially financed through military assistance.

Ukraine and Sweden have agreed to begin localizing the production of Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets on Ukrainian territory, with plans to establish significant domestic manufacturing by 2033, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on 7 November, as reported by Ukrainian national broadcaster Suspilne.

This marks a major step in Ukraine’s long-term strategy to rebuild and modernize its defense industry through Western technology partnerships. By producing advanced fighter jets domestically, Kyiv secures greater self-sufficiency in arms manufacturing, strengthens its air force against continued Russian attacks, and integrates more deeply into Europe’s defense ecosystem.

According to Shmyhal, the two countries finalized the details with Sweden’s Ministry of Defence on 6 November, including provisions for the supply of up to 150 Gripen E-class fighters. A memorandum of intent was signed between a Ukrainian defense enterprise and Saab, the Swedish aerospace manufacturer, to set up future production inside Ukraine.

“From 2033, Gripen production will be significantly localized in Ukraine, from large-unit assembly to the manufacturing of individual components,” Shmyhal said.

First jets arrive next year, domestic production follows

Ukraine expects to receive its first Gripen fighter jets from Sweden as early as next year, with initial batches likely to include older C and D models, before the full-scale production of the advanced Gripen E variant begins later in the decade.

Ukrainian defense portal Militarnyi notes that the localization project would be Ukraine’s first large-scale fighter-aircraft production effort, encompassing everything from assembly to parts manufacturing. Saab is also reportedly exploring options for a parallel production line in Canada due to growing international demand.

Deal builds on Ukraine's largest-ever combat aviation agreement

The agreement follows the 22 October 2025 letter of intent signed by Zelenskyy and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson for the purchase of 100 to 150 Gripen E fighters - Ukraine’s largest-ever combat aviation deal. 

Kristersson described it as a long-term partnership to build a “serious air force” capable of defending Ukrainian skies against Russian attacks.

The Gripen E is a 4++-generation multirole fighter capable of speeds up to Mach 2, equipped with advanced radar, AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles, and precision strike capability.

French aircraft manufacturer Dassault Aviation has confirmed it is ready to deliver Rafale fighter jets if Kyiv requests them, Le Journal du Dimanche reports. This follows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's mention that Kyiv is negotiating with France, Sweden, and the United States to acquire up to 250 modern fighter jets to replace Ukraine’s aging Soviet-era fleet.

Ukraine seeks 250 Western jets from three countries

Speaking on 27 October, Zelenskyy said Ukraine is engaged in three parallel negotiations to modernize its air force: “I’m holding three simultaneous talks with the Swedes, the French, and the Americans,” he told reporters. the Ukrainian President also noted that Ukraine’s air force modernization strategy centers on three core fighter platforms: the F‑16, the Gripen, and the Rafale. Ukraine aims to secure a total of 250 jets, potentially divided among the three suppliers.

France has already provided Ukraine with older-generation Mirage 2000 fighters, which are now flying under Ukrainian insignia.

Sweden’s Gripen emerges as front-runner

Despite Dassault’s readiness, Sweden appears to be leading the race. Kyiv and Stockholm have signed a preliminary agreement covering the delivery of 100 to 150 latest-generation Gripen jets. Financial Times reported that the Swedish manufacturer Saab is even considering setting up an assembly plant in Ukraine.

Kyiv has publicly highlighted the Gripen’s operational advantages. On 27 October, Zelenskyy emphasized that the aircraft requires a smaller technical crew for maintenance and that experienced pilots can be trained in just six months, compared to 18 months for the F-16. He also noted that the Gripen E/F can operate from roads or basic runways — a critical factor given Ukraine’s war conditions — and is compatible with most of Ukraine’s existing weapons.

Ukraine is in talks with France on the possible supply of Rafale fighter jets, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed on 28 October, Militarnyi reports. The French-made multirole Rafales could become a new component of Ukraine’s air fleet as the country transitions away from its aging Soviet aircraft during the Russian invasion.

Rafales at the core of new negotiations

Responding to an Ukrinform question, Zelenskyy said Ukraine is conducting “three parallel conversations regarding aircraft — with the Swedes, with the French, and with the Americans.” He reminded that the modernization plan for Ukraine’s air force is based on three key fighter platforms — F‑16, Gripen, and Rafale.

Militarnyi notes that back in 2021—a year before Russia's full-scale invasion—French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly planned to propose Rafale jets to Ukraine to replace the Soviet‑era MiG‑29s during his visit to Kyiv. No further details of that initiative were made public, but the topic has now returned to the agenda.

Rafale’s capabilities

The Rafale, produced by Dassault Aviation, is a 4++ generation multirole fighter able to perform all types of combat missions. One of its major advantages is the capacity to use the long‑range Meteor air‑to‑air missile developed by the MBDA consortium. 

Wider air‑fleet strategy

According to Ukrinform, Zelenskyy called the Swedish Gripen attractive for its lower maintenance costs, shorter pilot‑training period, and ability to operate from roads. He added that Ukraine and Sweden agreed to localize Gripen production, describing that step as “a historic agreement.”

Zelenskyy noted that the overall demand for new combat aircraft is around 250 planes, with 150 Gripen fighters already agreed in principle. The ongoing talks with France place Rafales alongside Gripens and F‑16s as one of three cornerstone aircraft in Ukraine’s future air‑power structure.

Over the past six weeks, the proposed EU “reparation loan” has moved closer to reality. It is backed by over $200 billion in frozen Russian Central Bank reserves held mainly in Belgium’s Euroclear.

This reparation loan, long in discussion, now appears closer than ever to reality. Belgium has raised reservations about the mechanism, though these are expected to be resolved through negotiations. Similar concerns from France and Germany could emerge, but have not been formally stated.

Still, while the EU and Ukraine have spent months refining the legal framework for confiscating Russian assets or profits derived from them, far less attention has been paid to a parallel question: how those resources should be deployed once secured.

A recent example offers a hint. On 22 October, Sweden announced that Ukraine would receive between 100 and 150 Gripen fighter jets manufactured by Saab. The announcement was vague on financing, but the timing—days after loan details emerged—suggests this may be funded through the reparation mechanism rather than Sweden’s aid budget.

If so, the pattern continues. And Saab may not be alone: Rheinmetall, Dassault Aviation, BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin, and MBDA could soon follow, each offering long-term contracts that align with their production schedules rather than Ukraine’s immediate tactical needs.

Aid as a procurement opportunity

The United Kingdom, for example, announced two funding tranches in February and July 2025, tied to major Thales contracts for 10,000 air-defence missiles. But timing mattered: Russia had just escalated to mass drone attacks—300 to 500 drones per night instead of dozens.

The Thales missiles worked against minor incursions but couldn’t scale to swarm defense. By the time contracts were finalized, Ukraine had already begun mass-producing FPV drone interceptors that cost a fraction of Western missiles and proved more effective against saturation attacks.

Would London have approved those tranches without the boost to a Belfast factory—and the accompanying pledge to protect or create hundreds of jobs? That remains a rhetorical question.

Long-term contracts vs. short-term survival

The situation with the Gripens may differ, but the broader EU logic is clear. Channeling the loan into contracts for Europe’s defence industry fits neatly into the bloc’s long-term strategy to revitalise its military-industrial base. Yet for Ukraine, linking the funds to long-term foreign contracts risks a critically negative outcome.

Initiatives like the “Danish model,” the PURL program, and partnerships with local manufacturers could deliver faster and more flexible results.

The Danish model allows Ukraine to procure equipment directly from manufacturers with Danish funding, bypassing lengthy European procurement rules. The PURL programme (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List) similarly enables fast-tracked weapon supplies from the US

Finding the right balance between Ukraine’s immediate needs and Europe’s industrial ambitions is essential.

Why Ukraine wants control

The recent Reuters report that Kyiv wants to manage the loan independently makes perfect sense. The loan aims to ensure Ukraine’s stability amid a full-scale war—and, should peace talks eventually start, to strengthen its negotiating position.

Regardless, if Ukraine receives a package of expensive, long-term contracts instead of flexibility, this “support” will become largely symbolic. A year ago, the need for massive drone defence was far less urgent. No one can confidently say what Ukraine’s priorities will be six or twelve months from now.

Beyond battlefield needs

A portion of these funds must also be directed toward two other vital goals: reconstruction and compensation for losses. European partners remain reluctant to frame the use of Russian assets in terms of reparations, yet these questions are becoming unavoidable.

Proposals already exist to allocate even a small percentage of the loan to urgent reparations, which are also gaining traction within the international compensation mechanism.

Today, the war’s course—and perhaps even the outcome—may hinge on this decision. All parties must recognise that Europe’s security and the health of its defence industry depend on the success of Ukraine’s army—not at its expense.

Ivan Horodyskyy

Ivan Horodyskyy, Ph.D. (Law), is Managing Partner at Dexis Partners, co-founder of the Dnistrianskyi Centre, and a Board Member of the Ukrainian Bar Association.

Editor's note. The opinions expressed in our Opinion section belong to their authors. Euromaidan Press' editorial team may or may not share them.

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Kyiv takes a step into the sky of freedom. Ukraine and Sweden have signed the first document, opening the path to receiving Swedish Gripen fighter jets. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called it “a new and very meaningful chapter” in relations with Sweden, according to the President's Office. 

Superspeed fighter jets for Ukraine: the beginning of air era

On 22 October, Zelenskyy arrived in the Swedish city of Linköping, where he was greeted by Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. They planned to discuss a new level of defense partnership amid Russia’s war against Ukraine. 

100–150 fighter jets: forming a new Air Force

“Today, there is the first document between our countries that opens the way for Ukraine to receive a serious fleet of Swedish-made Gripen fighter jets,” Zelenskyy said during the meeting with Kristersson. 

He described the Gripen jet as a "very cool” and a “powerful platform capable of carrying out a wide range of combat missions.”

In his turn, Kristersson stated that the signed letter of intent opens the way for the potential supply of 100–150 Gripen E-series fighter jets, which will allow Ukraine to build “a very serious Air Force."

According to him, the agreement benefits both sides. For Sweden, it is “one step towards a major export deal for Saab” and a foundation for long-term industrial cooperation.

Saab is a leading Swedish aerospace and defense company, which produces the JAS 39 Gripen. Its headquarters are located in Linköping, the exact city where Zelenskyy arrived with the official visit. 

From intentions to contract

The Swedish prime minister emphasized that the document does not mean immediate deliveries, but creates a framework for a large-scale future agreement.

“It means great opportunities for the Ukrainian Air Force, and also for Sweden and our defence industry,” Kristersson said.

Zelenskyy added, “Everyone can see the threats this helps to counter. We expect that the future contract will allow us to receive at least 100 such aircraft.”

The Ukrainian president thanked the Swedish government, Kristersson, and Saab for their willingness to engage in deep defence cooperation.

The JAS 39 Gripen E has following specifications 

Its maximum speed is up to around 2,130 km/h, which is approximately Mach 2 at high altitude. The aircraft can carry:

• AIM-120 AMRAAM
• AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles

They are used not only on the Gripen but also on many US and allied fighters, such as the F-16.

It is capable of launching precision-guided bombs GBU-12, GBU-49, and tactical air-to-ground missiles. 

The Gripen E/F of the so-called 4++ generation features improved stealth, additional protection, and a new F414 engine from General Electric, per United24. Additionally, its fuel capacity has increased by 1.5 times, enabling a combat radius of 1,300 km compared to 800 km in the JAS 39C/D, BBC reports. Maximum takeoff weight has also increased to 16.5 tons, and the number of weapon hardpoints has risen from 8 to 10.