Gasoline prices have risen roughly 10–13% in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan as Russia restricts exports after Ukrainian strikes on its refineries, Kazakh economist Aidar Alibayev estimated in a 20 August interview with Current Time. He did not specify the comparison period.

Earlier Ukrainian attacks disrupted Kazakhstan’s crude exports through Russia’s Black Sea ports. Strikes at refineries are creating a different kind of squeeze: Russia has less gasoline available to dependent neighbors. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are seeking other suppliers, while Kazakhstan could face growing pressure if the shortages persist.

Tajikistan has been hit hardest because it depends heavily on Russian fuel and has the region’s most difficult delivery routes, Alibayev said. He estimated gasoline prices there had risen 12–13%. Current Time reported that Tajikistan is exploring supplies from China; Alibayev said it was also turning to Iran.

Kyrgyzstan, which sources more than 90% of its gasoline from Russia, asked its neighbors, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, as well as other countries, for help. Current Time reported that a deputy prime minister said its reserves would last about six weeks. Alibayev estimated prices had climbed around 10%, compared with 11–11.5% in Uzbekistan, which he estimated gets half its fuel from Russia.

In Uzbekistan, Alibayev estimated that fuel prices had risen by about 11% and said the country gets about half of its fuel from Russia.

Russia extended its gasoline and diesel export restrictions through 31 January 2027 as shortages mounted. Intergovernmental and humanitarian shipments remain exempt, while diesel producers regain some export rights from 1 September. Current Time also reported that Russian companies had begun buying gasoline from Belarus.

Kazakhstan is better insulated than its neighbors because its refineries in Atyrau, Shymkent, and Pavlodar produce enough fuel to meet most domestic demand, Alibayev noted. Motorists from Russia and neighboring states are crossing its borders to refuel. He attributed Kazakhstan’s price rises mainly to domestic taxes and the end of an export moratorium—not Russia’s shortage alone.

Central Asia looks for routes beyond Russia as war drags on

Ukraine’s Black Sea campaign has repeatedly struck oil infrastructure around Novorossiysk, where the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal handles about 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports. Separate tanker attacks cut CPC loadings by a fifth and forced Kazakhstan to reduce production. In contrast, disruptions at the terminal forced Kazakhstan to send Kashagan crude to China for the first time.

At an informal summit of Central Asian leaders in Cholpon-Ata in early August, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon proposed building a refinery to serve the whole region. For now, Alibayev said, the decisive factor is how long Russia’s troubles last: the longer Ukraine’s strikes continue, the more they will weigh on prices across Central Asia.

Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck a major oil refinery and a Black Sea oil terminal on 19 August and overnight into 20 August, Ukraine’s General Staff reported. Drones also hit a key mainland electricity hub supplying occupied Crimea, Militarnyi reported after analyzing NASA satellite data.

Together, the reported strikes put three parts of Russia’s war machine under attack within hours: fuel production, Black Sea oil exports, and the mainland electricity bridge to occupied Crimea. They continue a deep-strike campaign intended to disrupt fuel supplies and logistics supporting Russia's invasion

A major refinery deep inside Russia

Ukraine struck the TANECO refinery in Nizhnekamsk, in the Russian republic of Tatarstan, where the General Staff reported a fire at the production site. Militarnyi had earlier identified the same facility from eyewitness footage showing a drone reaching the city’s industrial zone despite Russian air-defense fire.

Owned by Tatneft, TANECO is one of Russia’s newest, largest, and most technologically advanced refineries. It can process more than 16 million tons of crude annually and produces gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, marine fuel, and other petroleum products.

Neither the General Staff nor the available imagery established whether processing equipment was damaged or production stopped.

A Black Sea terminal moving about 20 million tons a year

Ukraine also hit the Tamanneftegaz oil and gas terminal in the village of Volna, Krasnodar Krai, where the General Staff reported another fire. Militarnyi found a corresponding fire in NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) data and assessed that storage tanks were likely burning.

Militarnyi described Tamanneftegaz as southern Russia’s largest private oil terminal. The complex can handle about 19.9 million tons annually, while its tank farm held more than 1 million cubic meters before Ukrainian attacks began.

The Tamanneftegaz terminal receives, stores, and loads petroleum products onto tankers, making it an important link in Russia’s Black Sea exports. Drones previously hit three tanks and pipelines there on 30 July.

The mainland electricity gateway to occupied Crimea

Drones hit the Taman 500-kilovolt substation in Krasnodar Krai, where NASA satellite data recorded a fire, Militarnyi reported. All four lines of Russia’s power bridge across the Kerch Strait pass through this high-voltage hub, making it the principal mainland gateway for electricity sent to occupied Crimea, Militarnyi reported.

Power failed in Simferopol, Sevastopol, Kerch, Feodosia, and Yalta around 1:45 a.m., according to Suspilne Crimea. Electric transport stopped in several cities. Sevastopol’s occupation chief said restrictions were lifted after about 90 minutes, although the grid remained unstable and some nearby settlements still lacked electricity. Social facilities in Sevastopol switched to backup power.

Crimean Wind also reported explosions near the Kafa and Malorechenske substations inside Crimea, Suspilne Crimea reported. The available evidence therefore does not establish that the Taman strike alone caused the outages.

Ukraine’s sustained long-range strike campaign

Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian targets have ramped up in recent months. One day earlier, drones hit a key crude-processing unit at the Bashneft-UNPZ refinery in Ufa, Militarnyi reported. Ukraine had also struck TANECO on 10 August and both Nizhnekamsk refineries on 12 June, Suspilne reported.

Euromaidan Press reported that Ukrainian deep strikes hit 18 Russian oil and gas facilities in May, making it the heaviest month of 2026 at that point. On 6 August, drones attacked a top-five refinery in Yaroslavl for the seventh time this year. Five days later, they reached Orsk, about 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine.

The United States has rebuilt intelligence sharing with Ukraine—the flow of satellite data, targeting, and attack warnings—to its pre-freeze peak, according to Politico. That restored flow now sharpens Kyiv's long-range strikes inside Russia, and senators from both parties say it has strengthened Ukraine. The White House says President Donald Trump stays focused on ending the war.

Russia funds its invasion largely with oil money, and Ukraine has spent the past year burning that revenue at the source, sending drones against refineries far behind the front. Foreign backing has wavered across the war, and every US pledge now carries the question of whether it will hold.

The freeze that started with a White House blowup

The cutoff came after Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy clashed in the Oval Office on 28 February 2025. Days later, the White House froze weapons and intelligence to push Kyiv toward talks. It did not last. Washington restored the flow within about a week, after US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia.

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Senator Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said the renewed sharing has improved Ukraine's position.

"Everybody loves a winner and looks like Ukraine has turned the tide," said Republican Senator John Cornyn.

Better data, deadlier strikes

"Those strikes were supercharged," and became "significantly more effective when imbued with intelligence from the Americans," said George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War.

He tied the drone strikes on Russian energy sites to a plan to raise the war's cost for Moscow.

Stephen Sestanovich of the Council on Foreign Relations said Ukrainian officials give Washington confident reads on what is happening in Moscow, not just inside the Kremlin. Warner said no one in the US defense establishment, himself included, expected Ukraine to reach this point a year ago.

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Euromaidan Press reported that losing the feed let Russian troops claw back territory in Russia's Kursk Oblast and left thousands of Ukrainians at risk of encirclement.

"As a result of this pause, there are hundreds of dead Ukrainians," one Ukrainian officer told.

Why the renewed backing is hard to unwind

The restored flow binds Washington to Ukraine's deep-strike campaign, making the tie harder for any ceasefire to sever. Agreement across party lines suggests the backing could outlast the next swing in American politics.

Long-range Ukrainian drones struck the Ilsky oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai on July 7, hitting one of the facility's technological workshops, a source in Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) told the Kyiv Independent.

Located roughly 500 kilometers (311 miles) from Ukrainian-controlled territory, the refinery is among the largest in southern Russia, producing over 6 million tons of fuel annually.

It is involved in the reception, storage, and processing of hydrocarbons and distributes refined products via road and rail. The refinery is part of Russia's military-industrial complex and plays a direct role in supporting Moscow's war effort, the source said.

The Russian regional operational headquarters claimed that "drone debris" fell on the oil refinery.

The strike marks a renewed wave of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, following a months-long pause since March. On July 1, Ukrainian drones struck the Saratovorgsintez oil refinery in Russia's Saratov Oblast.

Kyiv has targeted dozens of refineries, oil depots, and military-industrial sites since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. Winter drone attacks forced at least four Russian refineries to temporarily shut down.

This is the second known strike on the Ilsky refinery. Ukrainian drones, operated by the Security Service (SBU) and Special Operations Forces (SSO), previously targeted the facility on Feb. 17, causing a fire.

Krasnodar Krai, a strategic region along Russia's Black Sea coast, has increasingly come under Ukrainian drone attacks as Kyiv extends the range of its strikes deep into Russian territory.

HUR publishes Russian military order, claims proof of Moscow increasing military footprint in Armenia

HUR first made the claim on July 5, saying Russia was increasing its forces at the Gyumri base to exert greater influence in the South Caucasus and “destabilize the global security situation.”

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Ukrainian drones struck the Saratovorgsintez oil refinery in Russia's Saratov Oblast, causing damage to the facility, Ukraine's General Staff reported on July 1.

"An important facility has been hit," the General Staff said via its official Telegram channel.

The Saratovorgsintez refinery and chemical plant, owned by Russian energy giant Lukoil, is located nearly 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) from Ukraine's border in the city of Saratov. The city hosts multiple strategic military and industrial sites.

The refinery was targeted to "reduce the enemy's offensive capabilities," the General Staff wrote.

"The occupiers use the capacity of this refinery to supply fuel and lubricants to Russian military units involved in the armed aggression against Ukraine."

The attack was a joint operation carried out by Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) and other military units, the General Staff said. A fire broke out at the site of the attack and damage to the refinery's technological installations has been confirmed. The full consequences of the strike are still being investigated.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.

The report is the latest in a series of announcements on July 1 about successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets. Earlier in the day, HUR released footage of Ukraine's UJ-26 drones, commonly known as Bober (Beavers), targeting high-value Russian air defenses and a fighter jet in occupied Crimea.

A source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent that Ukrainian drones struck a major Russian military plant in the city of Izhevsk, over 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) from the front lines.

Ukraine also hit a Russian command post in occupied Donetsk Oblast, according to the General Staff.

Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian drones strike Russian plant 1,300km from border, SBU source says

Key developments on July 1: * ‘With surgical precision’ — Ukrainian drones strike Russian plant 1,300km away, SBU source says * Russian missile strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast kills brigade commander, injures 30 people, Zelensky says * Ukrainian forces hit Russian command post in occupied Donetsk Oblast, General Staff says * Zelensky signs ratification of

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk