Today, there are a lot of updates regarding the Russian Navy. 

Recently, it’s been a bad few days for the Russian Navy, as the Ukrainian campaign has been reinforced by nature and even the Russians’ own incompetence. 

Spanning from the Black Sea and St. Petersburg to the Far East, Russian naval power and projection is falling apart at the seams.

Russia officially scraps Admiral Kuznetsov after years of failed repairs

The biggest news is that after years of repairs and accidents, Russians officially lost their last aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov. The massive ship has now been decommissioned and is to be scrapped for parts. 

The main reason for this is that the ship spent most of its service life in port and under repairs, and the ability of the Russian military to maintain an expensive and very vulnerable aircraft carrier has disappeared. Western naval analysts joke that when the boat was not on fire, the massive smoke plume from its diesel exhaust made it seem like it was.

Most notably, the aircraft that make up its air wings are no longer in production, and due to the ramp on the flight deck putting too high a strain on the front gears, if the weight was too high, their fuel load and therefore operational range were already largely limited.

The list of incidents during its service is also long, with a few notable examples being the approximately 300,000 ton oil spill onto the Irish coast, five of its jets crashing into the ocean during operations as the arresting wires kept snapping, or they simply ran out of fuel, and several crew members dying because of the water filtration system’s failure during its maiden voyage. 

Kamchatka earthquake devastates Russian Pacific submarine bases

The bad days continue, as one of the largest earthquakes in recent history caused a tsunami to sweep along Russia’s far eastern shores.

Recently released satellite footage shows extensive damage to Russia’s two main naval bases here, one of which houses a large part of Russia’s nuclear submarine fleet, with the submarines visibly missing from the photos and possibly under repair.

Additionally, the Russian Academy of Sciences reports that the southern part of Kamchatka shifted two whole meters to the southeast as a result of the earthquake, causing speculations of much larger damage to Russian naval facilities not visible from satellite footage.

Ukraine obtains classified plans for Russia’s newest nuclear submarine

Russia’s nuclear submarine fleet then took another hit, as Ukrainian military intelligence revealed it had obtained a full set of classified documents and schematics on Russia’s newest strategic nuclear submarine, the Project 955 Aborey class. 

They released some of them online and stated that the classified documents include information about the submarine’s survivability systems, which entered service just over three weeks ago.

Ukrainian military intelligence also made a statement, saying they had already identified several weak points in the Russian sub right before Zelenskyy authorized a new series of covert operations. The details of which remain unknown. 

Single Ukrainian drone forces Russia to cancel Navy Day celebrations

Lastly, during Navy Day, celebrating the temporary existence and history of Russia’s fleets,

as well as its specialized naval infantry units currently fighting in Ukraine. Russian warships from all four Russian fleets were scheduled to hold a parade and gun salutes through the harbor of St. Petersburg, as well as air shows and ground troops conducting displays on land.

However, the parade and all its surrounding events were canceled due to safety concerns, as a single Ukrainian Liutyi drone was spotted flying over Leningrad Oblast.

As there were no reports of any confirmed hits, Ukrainians likely simply decided to fly a drone in the general vicinity and let Russia cancel the parade themselves, unable to intercept a possible threat from the skies.

Russian naval decline accelerates across Pacific and Baltic theaters

Overall, the loss of their only carrier is significant, as these types of ships allow a navy to exert strong military influence and capabilities on a global scale.

Extensive damage to its military bases and possibly also vessels on the Pacific coast results in a serious deterioration of both its regional influence and strategic deterrence capabilities. 

Ukraine having found weaknesses in the new Russian submarine’s defenses through classified documents and the news of additional covert operations being in the works only exacerbates this effect. 

With Russia’s global dominance already increasingly deteriorating, and parades meant to counteract this trend are being called off, this is another strong hit to Russian military geopolitical relevance, as more pressure is shifted onto the already strained Russian ground-based assets.

 

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are interesting updates from the Russian federation. 

Here, Ukraine continued its own version of sanctions by successfully hitting Russia’s main Central Asian gas pipeline. This puts not only Russia’s influence in Asia under threat but also stops the work of some of its most important military factories due to the lack of resources.

In a bold escalation of its long-range strike campaign, Ukraine has struck one of the most critical arteries of Russia’s gas infrastructure, the Central Asia Center pipeline. Explosions rocked the Volgograd region, knocking the pipeline out of service and forcing an indefinite shutdown. 

This strategic attack, confirmed by Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, not only disrupted the gas transit but also directly affected energy supplies to multiple key military-industrial facilities across Russia, dependent on energy plants that fully receive their gas from this pipeline. 

Among those impacted are the Demikhovsky Machine-Building Plant, MiG Aircraft Corporation, and the Magnum-K ammunition factory, central players in Russia’s war machine. Local emergency crews rushed to the site as Gazprom, the pipeline operator, initiated damage assessments and repairs, halting gas flow across the region.

The Central Asia Center pipeline is a 4,000 kilometer-long linchpin in Russia’s gas export network, designed to transport gas from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan to Russia and vice versa. This pipeline is a geopolitical leverage as it enables Russia to exert influence over Central Asian energy while simultaneously channeling gas toward its own industrial needs. 

It is an important tool to keep the energy networks of Russia and the Central Asian countries interlinked and interdependent. With the Nord Stream pipelines now crippled by sabotage and geopolitical isolation, and the Power of Siberia pipeline to China bearing the full hope of Russia’s Asian gas strategy, the Central Asia Center pipeline became an even more vital fallback.

Striking it isn’t just symbolic but strategic, as Ukraine has targeted a highly vulnerable and deeply exposed piece of infrastructure. All Russian pipelines span vast, often remote terrain with limited protection, making them soft but critical targets. If Ukraine decides to repeat such attacks or target the Power of Siberia pipeline as well, the ramifications for Russia could be immense. 

Constant disruption of the lines due to the easy repetition of the strikes would undermine Russia’s ability to pivot away from lost European markets, weaken its hold on Central Asian energy dependencies, and slash billions from its energy revenue. Repeated strikes could also create logistical nightmares, reduce supply reliability, and destroy investor confidence, key levers in Russia’s geopolitical influence. As a result, Moscow would be hard-pressed to maintain energy flows even for domestic needs, let alone sustain the illusion of dominance in the global energy market.

The pressure is already prompting signs of panic in the Russian government. Reports suggest Russia may be considering a limited air ceasefire by halting drone and missile strikes in hopes of reducing the tempo of Ukrainian retaliation. 

The last month alone has seen several dozen successful Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and depots, air defense systems, railway logistics, and factories deep in Russian territory. 

With drones hitting Sochi, Ryazan, Samara, and now a strategic gas pipeline, Russia’s rear is on fire, both literally and figuratively. A temporary air truce would give Moscow the breathing room it desperately needs to regroup and reinforce, but few in Ukraine are ready to fall for this trap.

Ukrainian officials and analysts understand such a ceasefire would only pause Russia’s terror campaign, giving it time to replenish stockpiles and come back later to strike even harder. It’s a tactical ploy, and Ukraine has no reason to trust it.

Overall, the attack on the Central Asia Center pipeline marks a turning point in Ukraine’s long-range strategy. With one strike, Kyiv has exposed a critical vulnerability in Russia’s energy empire and opened the door for further precision sabotage. 

As Western sanctions grind on slowly and often without immediate impact, Ukraine is delivering its own version – swift, targeted, and devastatingly effective. Each drone strike against energy and military infrastructure does more than destroy machinery, it shatters the myth of Russian invulnerability. If Ukraine continues on this path, it may not only cripple Russia’s battlefield logistics but also bring its broader war economy to a breaking point.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are interesting updates from the Russian alliance. Here, India, a key member of the Russian BRICS alliance, surrendered to the threat of devastating US sanctions and is about to cut economic ties with Russia. The danger of a heavy economic hit had an immediate effect, putting another nail in the coffin of what was advertised by the Russians to be an alliance that would dominate world politics and economics.

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Trump slaps 25% tariff, warns of 100% hike

India has dramatically folded under US economic pressure, triggered by the US imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods over New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil and military equipment. US President Donald Trump also threatened with additional penalties over this continued practice by India and mentioned that the tariffs could rise to 100% if necessary.

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US trade leverage hits India’s strategic plans

The US’s announcement severely impacted India’s strategic planning, given that the United States remains India’s largest trade partner, accounting for roughly 18% of its exports, with bilateral trade totaling $186 billion in 2024 and 2025. With a $41 billion trade surplus and significant service-sector revenues at stake, India’s margins risked severe erosion if the proposed tariffs materialized.

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Indian refineries stop buying Russian oil overnight

Facing the clear and immediate danger of substantial economic harm, Indian state refineries swiftly ceased all purchases of Russian crude oil. Prior to Trump’s ultimatum, India imported roughly 87.4 million tons of Russian oil annually, forming about 35% of its total crude imports, worth approximately $50.2 billion. This sudden reversal is a strategic blow to Russia, as Indian refiners—especially state-run enterprises controlling more than 60% of India’s 5.2 million barrels-per-day refining capacity—were major buyers of Russian oil.

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India switches to Middle East and West African oil

Indian companies like Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum have shifted to immediate delivery markets, rapidly replacing Russian crude primarily with Middle Eastern varieties from Abu Dhabi and West Africa at an impressively quick rate. India’s abrupt reversal significantly undermines Russia’s economic position; following Europe’s embargo on Russian energy, India emerged as Russia’s single largest oil importer, acquiring around 1.8 million barrels per day at its peak. Bilateral trade between India and Russia had surged to over $65 billion in 2024, mostly fueled by oil and fertilizer sales.

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BRICS vision falters as US economic power prevails

Now, with India withdrawing from major Russian oil deals, Moscow faces an imminent crisis as they must rapidly seek alternative markets. Otherwise, Russia would have to deal with selling now large unsold stockpiles through steep discounts, creating an even more severe budget deficit, already expected to reach over $100 billion by the end of the year, and further undermine its already strained wartime economy.

Ironically, India’s announcement arrived just hours after a bold statement by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who publicly mocked Trump’s threats, confidently dismissing concerns over US tariffs. Trump had earlier mocked Russia and India as “dead economies”, declaring indifference toward their economic fates and directly warning Medvedev against further provocations. The swift Indian capitulation underlines a broader geopolitical implication: despite Moscow’s ambitious claims about the rise of a BRICS-led order, the reality remains starkly different.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, as Russian authorities were trying to repair the damage to oil refineries from previous Ukrainian attacks, the Ukrainians dealt them another devastating blow. By starting a new wave of strikes with long-range drones, the Ukrainian army targeted Russian oil production facilities to disrupt this key enemy source of income. Ukrainian forces have reignited their strategic campaign against Russia’s oil infrastructure, resuming targeted drone strikes on critical refineries after a calculated pause.

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Kyiv strikes just as Russia finishes costly repairs

After concentrating on disabling Russian air defenses and radars in the past month, Ukrainian military leaders patiently allowed Russia to begin costly restoration efforts at previously damaged facilities. Once Russian repair crews and specialized equipment were fully engaged, Ukrainian drones decisively struck again, inflicting severe economic and logistical damage while simultaneously eroding Russia’s internal narrative of security.

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Liutyi drones set Samara’s Novokuybyshevsk refinery ablaze

In Samara Oblast, Ukrainian long-range Liutyi drones successfully attacked the Novokuybyshevsk Petrochemical Company, one of Russia’s largest oil-processing plants. Drone strikes severely damaged the facility’s primary oil refining unit, critical for crude purification and fractioning processes into gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil. Videos confirm large-scale fires burning uncontrollably for hours, forcing authorities to shut down Samara airport and restrict mobile internet access to control information leaks. The Novokuybyshevsk refinery alone represents a daily capacity of over 177,000 barrels—almost 5% of Russia’s national refining capability.

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Ryazan refinery hit, fuel lifeline to bomber base severed

In a similar attack, Ukrainian drones struck the Ryazan refinery, number 3 in Russia’s largest oil refineries, processing 340,000 barrels daily. This refinery produces 840,000 tons of aviation kerosene annually, nearly 9% of Russia’s total output, a vital resource for Russian air operations. It is situated next to—and directly supplies—the Dyagilevo strategic bomber airbase, from where Russian bombers target Ukrainian cities and military bases deep behind combat lines. Footage captured massive fires and explosions, contradicting official Russian claims of minor damage.

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Russian air defenses crack under pressure, Sochi hit

Such strikes significantly degrade Russia’s capability to sustain air operations, directly benefiting Ukrainian defense efforts. Russia’s strained air defenses, already weakened by relentless Ukrainian targeting, are becoming increasingly ineffective, forcing Moscow to deploy outdated systems and rush production of air defense missiles, causing more defects. Such desperation recently resulted in a friendly fire incident near Sochi, where a Russian missile intended for a Ukrainian drone veered toward urban areas, causing civilian casualties.

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Southern fuel depots in flames after precision drone strikes

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes inflicted serious damage on oil storage depots in Sochi and Adler, igniting tanks at Lukoil and Rosneft facilities. Krasnodar Governor Veniamin Kondratyev confirmed deployment of over 120 firefighters to control the blaze at a major depot storing 2,000 cubic meters of fuel. Yet, local authorities responded by attempting to identify and punish residents who shared visual evidence of the successful strikes online.

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Kstovo and Volgograd refineries burn in renewed attacks

Additionally, Ukraine hit the refinery in Kstovo near Nizhny Novgorod, an already damaged facility previously targeted in January. The renewed strike represents Ukraine’s tactic of exploiting Russian vulnerabilities after costly restoration efforts. Another drone attack sparked a large fire at an oil facility in Volgograd, underscoring Ukraine’s renewed campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.

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Repeat-strike tactics drain Russia’s war resources

The strategic secret behind Ukraine’s approach lies in carefully timed repetition strikes. Allowing Russians to rebuild and re-staff targeted refineries before striking again magnifies economic damage and drains resources. The psychological impact on Russian society is equally devastating, publicly demonstrating the Kremlin’s inability to secure vital assets. This persistent vulnerability undermines the government’s image, dismantles official assurances of safety, and weakens public morale.

Overall, these coordinated drone assaults degrade Russia’s military capacity, cut critical fuel supplies, and limit oil export revenues used to fund the war.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Day 1260 On 6 August, there is interesting news from the Lyman direction. Here, the Russians decided to attack from another vector and break the Ukrainian deadlock near Torske but were surprised by the latest Ukrainian innovation in drone warfare. By mounting RPG’s on drones, the Ukrainians found a way to make their air assaults even deadlier.

Near Lyman, the Ukrainian 63rd Mechanized Brigade remains firmly in control, effectively anchoring the defense at Torske through innovative defensive measures combined with preventive attacks against advancing Russian forces. This Ukrainian formation not only maintains entrenched positions but also proactively disrupts enemy movements, refusing to allow the Russians a chance to stabilize their positions. A striking footage captures two Ukrainian infantrymen clearing a forest near a settlement, encountering Russian troops hiding in a dugout. After intense close-range combat with grenades and gunfire, the cornered Russians chose to surrender and were taken prisoners of war.

Facing staggering casualties, the Russians recognized the danger of continuing frontal assaults against the fiercely defended Ukrainian positions around Torske. As a result, they attempted a new tactic, intensifying operations southwards across the Zherebets River, hoping to outflank and encircle the Ukrainians from behind. However, previous Russian vulnerabilities remain unchanged: troops must cross exposed terrain under constant Ukrainian drone surveillance, FPV drone strikes, and precise artillery fire. Every movement makes them easily spottable targets that the Ukrainians engage without hesitation.

Aware of their limited infantry numbers, Ukrainian forces increasingly implement the Drone Line initiative to neutralize Russian assault groups before they approach their defenses. Drone operators in this program receive points for eliminating priority targets such as infantry and enemy drone teams, which they can then exchange for large quantities of upgraded equipment, incentivizing aggressive hunting of Russian troops and dramatically boosting effectiveness. Numerous videos from the frontline near Torske illustrate this vividly, showing Russian infantry eliminated by precision grenade drops from Mavic and Vampire drones.

In addition, Ukrainians have recently begun employing RPG equipped drones to devastating effect. While traditional drone-dropped grenades are often spotted and engaged by the Russians, which forces operators into dive-bomb tactics that usually compromise accuracy, grenade-launcher drones offer a solution through stabilized aiming via a crosshair.

One notable video displays a Ukrainian operator identifying several Russian soldiers, firing a precise grenade launcher round from the drone, repositioning swiftly, and firing again from another angle to eliminate the survivors. Such innovations allow even single operators to decisively repel entire Russian assaults even when severely stretched infantry-wise.

Ukrainian soldiers praised the new technology by stating that, logically, a drone equipped with a grenade launcher can fly in, fire, turn around, and reload, making it highly effective. Ukrainian operators emphasized the key tactical advantage that grenade rounds arrive almost instantly, and the enemy can’t dodge them, which means more accurate hits. At the same time, it can strike from farther away and face fewer electronic warfare countermeasures. Another operator explained that infantry is used to drones hovering overhead to drop grenades, so they can time their movement around the drone’s range or shoot it down directly.

But if the drone instead starts shooting at them mid-flight, it drastically shortens the window of opportunity to move out of the way or shoot it down. Effectively, these new drones can disrupt each assault by forcing Russian troops to seek cover immediately upon hearing drone sounds, especially given modern grenade launchers’ variety of potent warheads that can be used, with armor-piercing, thermobaric, and even incendiary ones.

Overall, Ukrainian forces near Lyman continue to adapt rapidly, refining drone warfare tactics to overcome their limited infantry and decisively halt Russian advances. Russia’s attempted shift in strategy at Torske, seeking new vectors of attack, failed dramatically due to relentless Ukrainian drone strikes, precise grenade drops, and innovative grenade-launcher drones. These advanced tactics have not only stabilized the defense line but also ensured Russian offensives remain costly and ultimately ineffective.

‍In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Day 1259

On 5 August, the biggest updates come from the Kherson direction.

Here, Ukrainian special forces executed a daring amphibious landing on one of Russia’s most exposed positions in Ukraine. Taking out patrols and destroying critical equipment, this raid has now opened the door to a wide variety of naval, aerial, and further special forces operations across the Black Sea and the Crimean peninsula.

Ukraine’s military intelligence service posted footage of how its operatives carried out a naval landing operation on the Tendrivska spit in eastern Kherson. Operatives moved across the Black Sea in rubber boats mounted with radars, electronic warfare systems, and machine guns, similar to boats used by Nato’s naval special forces teams.  Landing on the beaches, the groups quickly disembarked and moved inland past several unmanned Russian coastal fortifications and bunkers. The groups then waited for the cover of night, turned on their night vision goggles, and moved toward their targets.

Their mission: destroying a Russian Rosa radar system and the Zont electronic warfare station protecting it. As they moved toward the targets, they even launched FPV drones to feed live intelligence to the assault groups, and strike any Russian target too dangerous to engage head-on. Before heading back after the successful destruction, they planted the Ukrainian flag on the position, and left a final message for the Russians in the morning: Glory to Ukraine.

The raid was not a detached victory, but a necessary operation that serves a larger strategic purpose. The Tendrivska spit’s topographical setting allows Russians to position radars and electronic warfare equipment that can cover a wide area over the Black Sea as far as possible. Specifically, this allows Russians to detect and disrupt Ukrainian naval and aerial drone strikes, forcing Ukrainians to avoid the coast and creating a more narrow pocket for other Russian air defense assets to monitor.

However, these emplacements are incredibly vulnerable; as they are only connected to the mainland through narrow strips of land, or not at all, forcing Russians to use boats to supply these exposed outposts.

Ukrainians exploited this masterfully, and in the weeks leading up to the operation, they increasingly targeted these outposts, using FPV drones to strike buildings Russians used as barracks situated along the route the assault group would later take.

Ukrainians also used a Bayraktar drone to destroy Russian boats resupplying the outposts and rotating the troops stationed there.

However, Russians didn’t suspect a thing; they understood that these outposts were vulnerable, and likely wrote these events off as acceptable casualties to hold such exposed positions. Notably, Ukrainians likely conducted a second raid on the small settlement of Pokrovske on the Kinburn further north, with another Ukrainian flag appearing raised above the settlement early in the morning.

The disruption of these outposts mean only one thing: Ukrainians are planning an intensification of their operations along this axis. As mentioned previously, one of the operations could be a targeted strike operation against Russian assets in Crimea, with many air defense systems, radars, logistics, and command posts highly likely targets. Notably, such a threat doesn’t even have to be from Ukrainian missiles, as naval drones could now more stealthily pass along the coastline and simply launch waves of FPV drones into the Russian-controlled peninsula.

In the past, the Ukrainian security service has released tons of videos showing such strikes, with strike drones and FPVs flying low, dodging Russian missiles, and taking out targets worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Alternatively, this amphibious special forces raid could be a part of the broader war in the Black Sea itself; with drilling platforms serving as makeshift castles from where either side can surveil the area, electronically disrupt equipment, lock down airspace with air defense missiles, or launch strikes from. Only recently Ukrainian naval special forces released new footage of a combined assault on one of these platforms, taking out the Russians defending it with FPV drones, and using the new position to fire missiles at Russian fighter jets.

Overall, Ukrainians executed a daring amphibious raid on several vulnerable Russian outposts, launching preparatory strikes for the operations while leaving Russians none the wiser. The successful outcomes of these missions have now opened the door for a wide range of follow-up operations, while Russians are left guessing as to what the next Ukrainian move will be.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Day 1257

On 3 August, the biggest news comes from Eastern Europe.

Here, a Shahed-type drone flew directly into Lithuanian airspace and passed over the capital, marking a serious escalation in Russia’s aerial provocations against Nato’s eastern flank. Poland’s air force is already on a nightly high alert, and now the rest of the Baltics are joining in, raising what increasingly resembles an iron Curtain in the air.

Recently, a Russian Shahed-like drone crossed into Lithuanian airspace from Belarus and flew over the outskirts of Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, close enough for civilians to see and film the device in flight. Initial fears suggested a live munition had entered Nato airspace, as Shaheds are often fitted with fragmentation, thermobaric, incendiary, or delayed-fuse warheads to cause maximum casualties and damage to civilian property.

Fortunately, upon further inspection of the video footage, the object was identified as a Gerbera decoy drone, a visually similar platform Russia uses for both reconnaissance and saturation purposes during their daily strikes on Ukrainian cities.

While unarmed, the drone crossed directly over a Nato capital, far from any logical flight path to Ukraine, making it clear that this was no accident.

Instead, it was a calculated decision to test Nato’s reaction time, radar coverage, and political tolerance for such direct aerial threats and provocations, and critically, Lithuanian forces did not intercept.

Poland, meanwhile, has entered a state of routine high alert, with Polish and Nato forces scrambling jets and raising radar systems every time Russia launches a large-scale assault on Ukraine, which happens every night and now often even during the day as well. Nato partners, including Swedish Gripens, are now joining Poland in maintaining a high alert status during Russia’s large-scale drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, reinforcing joint readiness across the eastern flank. While these alerts are precautionary, they have become the new norm, as the Polish border lies directly behind the approach paths of Russian missiles and drones targeting western Ukrainian cities. This proximity means any technical malfunction or mid-course deviation could result in a direct violation of Polish airspace, as seen in previous incidents, including when debris from Russian missiles entered Polish territory in 2022, or when a Ukrainian air defense missile landed on a Polish field, killing two farmers.

Unlike the calculated provocation over Vilnius, Poland faces a more constant strain of nightly threats, scrambling fighters, activating radar grids, and maintaining alert in civilian areas without knowing whether each launch might cause military objects to cross into its airspace. Across the Baltics, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have long depended on Nato’s Baltic Air Policing mission, with Hungary, Italy, and Spain being part of the current rotation, maintaining quick-reaction alert status and integrated into Nato’s broader air defense system.

However, the unchallenged drone over Vilnius shows the limits of deterrence alone, and Lithuania is now accelerating the deployments of Ukrainian-developed acoustic drone detection systems, seeking to fill gaps in its early warning networks exposed by the most recent airspace violation.

At the same time, the Baltic states are reinforcing their readiness for both air-to-air and ground-to-air engagements by expanding joint training protocols, adapting quick-reaction procedures, and integrating new detection systems designed to counter the threat of low-flying unmanned platforms.

And across all three states, radar tracking, jamming incidents logs, and drone incursions are now analyzed with a single assumption: that any aerial anomaly could be the opening in a broader conflict. The emerging posture is no longer passive monitoring; with new drone detection systems, joint alert protocols, and revised civilian flight corridors, it is becoming forward-leaning, reinforced, and increasingly closed, an Iron Curtain in the air.

Overall, Russia’s latest airspace violations are increasingly escalating and reshaping Nato’s eastern defenses through repeated, calculated provocations that expose gaps, test thresholds, and force reaction. The incursion over Vilnius is a template for how Moscow may continue to pressure Nato’s eastern flank, trying to provoke member states into triggering an open conflict. As Poland’s nightly alerts become routine and Baltic air defenses are forced to harden, the question is no longer whether Nato will respond, but how far that response will go, and as this pattern deepens, the skies over Eastern Europe are no longer a buffer, they are becoming the front line.

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In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war

Today, the biggest news comes from the Baltic region. NATO surveillance flights over Kaliningrad and live-fire drills in Estonia show that Europe is no longer treating the Russian exclave as a passive threat. Instead, Kaliningrad is being studied and tracked, while its neighbors quietly prepare for a worst-case scenario.

Recently, Germany’s military counterintelligence service reported that Russian espionage cases nearly doubled over the past year. Officials say Moscow’s operatives are using more aggressive cover strategies and entering Europe via third countries like Serbia and Türkiye to evade detection.

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Cyber strikes and political meddling hit Baltic states

At the same time, cyberattacks and political interference campaigns have surged across the Baltic states. In just the last month, Lithuania reported GPS spoofing on its commercial aircraft, Estonia flagged coordinated hacks on state infrastructure, and Russian-linked groups funded several political rallies in Latvia.

These are not isolated provocations. They mirror the early warning signs that preceded Russia’s invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in both 2014 and 2022. The pattern is familiar, and its central node is Kaliningrad. Nearly every signal-jamming incident, radar incursion, or drone probe in the region traces back to the Russian exclave, making it the catalyst for any new escalation.

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Why Kaliningrad is suddenly back in focus

That threat is not new, but its urgency is. Kaliningrad is a heavily militarized Russian enclave wedged between Poland and Lithuania, and has long served as a launchpad for threats against NATO. Home to Baltic Fleet warships, Iskander missile systems, and advanced air defense, it gives Moscow a constant forward presence inside EU territory.

During previous standoffs, Russia used Kaliningrad to simulate nuclear strikes, stage snap exercises, and threaten shipping routes in the Baltic Sea. But in recent months, it has also become a nerve center for hybrid operations, coordinating cyber-attacks, transmitting jamming signals, and testing NATO’s airspace readiness with frequent high flyovers.

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Kaliningrad turns into a battlefield node

In short, Kaliningrad is no longer just a base; it is a battlefield node already in use. Now Europe is pushing back. NATO AWACS surveillance aircraft have begun continuous flights over Poland and the Baltic Sea to monitor Kaliningrad’s military activity.

Meanwhile, Estonia has just held its first-ever live fire drills using US-supplied HIMARS, part of a six-unit acquisition aimed at boosting long-range strike capabilities. The exercises focused on targeting simulated hardened positions, such as fortified bunkers and missile launch pads, the exact type of assets concentrated in Kaliningrad.

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NATO expands long-range strike capabilities

Poland, which has received dozens of HIMARS systems from the US, is preparing similar capabilities. For frontline NATO members facing the brunt of Russian pressure, these drills serve a clear dual purpose: readiness for counterforce missions and visible deterrence against Kaliningrad’s offensive potential.

While no official scenario has been disclosed, these drills are being interpreted by analysts as a dry run for serious interdiction missions aimed at Russia: detecting, targeting, and disabling missile launch platforms inside the enclave.

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Border defenses tighten as NATO plans ahead

In parallel, Poland has expanded troop deployments near the border, and Lithuania is accelerating work on reinforced border barriers. If NATO were to actually confront Kaliningrad militarily, the opening move would likely be a coordinated cyber and electronic warfare push, aimed at blinding Russian communications and radar coverage.

This would be followed by continuous aerial reconnaissance through AWACS and high-altitude drones to confirm positions. Long-range precision strikes would then target key installations: Iskander launchers, air defense nodes, and Baltic Fleet command centers.

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A hypothetical battle plan sends a clear signal

HIMARS batteries in Estonia and Poland could disable fixed missile sites, while German and US aircraft execute follow-on suppression missions. Naval forces would blockade Kaliningrad’s key port at Baltiysk to prevent reinforcement. Meanwhile, NATO ground units, already repositioned near the Suwalki Gap, would be tasked with containing any attempted Russian breakout into Poland or Lithuania.

This is a hypothetical scenario, but it is now being actively rehearsed, with each exercise aligning more closely to an actual operational sequence. Overall, the Kaliningrad threat that Russia spent two decades cultivating may be turning against it. Europe is no longer treating the enclave as a static deterrent but as a live vulnerability that can be tracked, targeted, and potentially neutralized. For the Kremlin, this shift carries enormous risks: losing Kaliningrad would not only be a massive strategic blow but also a symbolic collapse of Russia’s forward posture in Europe. And for NATO, the message is clear: the era of passive containment is over.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are important updates from the Pokrovsk direction. Here, Russian sabotage units slipped through a gap in Ukrainian defenses on the outskirts of Pokrovsk, taking control of buildings and launching ambushes on Ukrainian units passing by. However, Ukrainian rapid reaction forces responded immediately, clearing the infiltrators before Russia could exploit the breach.

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Infiltration from Zvirove fails despite temporary gaps

To the south of Pokrovsk, Russian sabotage and reconnaissance units managed to infiltrate the outskirts of the town through Zvirove, exploiting a momentary Ukrainian infantry shortage that created a large gap on the frontline. Leveraging local terrain such as the terrikon area, these infiltrators staged ambushes, targeting passing Ukrainian patrol vehicles, and dug themselves in in several houses throughout Pokrovsk.

However, the Ukrainian command responded swiftly by deploying rapid reaction units, urgently initiating clearance operations to neutralize the infiltrators and swiftly deal with this sudden threat. Nevertheless, small enemy groups continued their attempts at infiltration, primarily at night, aiming to secure positions within the town perimeter until reinforcements arrived.

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Ukrainian drones target infiltrators on key routes

To counteract these persistent threats, Ukrainian forces have intensified drone surveillance over key infiltration routes, with the 47th Separate Assault Brigade releasing footage showing drone strikes successfully neutralizing enemy infantry near Zvirove.

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Russians miss window for assault on Pokrovsk

Following this infiltration, the Russians appeared briefly poised for a direct assault on Pokrovsk, yet their reaction was curiously delayed. They were not ready to exploit the sudden break in the lines, causing them to miss the brief window of Ukrainian vulnerability. By the time Russian forces assembled for an organized push, Ukrainians had reorganized the defense, and they had to start from scratch with preliminary probing attacks.

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Motorbike raids and mechanized push destroyed

One such attempt involved an infantry assault group mounted on motorcycles departing from Shevchenko, but Ukrainian FPV drone operators swiftly detected and eliminated them before they could even leave their staging area.

Undeterred, Russian commanders attempted a mechanized assault, the first in months for this area, again originating near Shevchenko, employing three armored vehicles. Ukrainian artillery and drone teams swiftly responded, obliterating the advancing armor in open terrain, exploiting their vulnerability without cover.

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Desperate use of TOS-1 thermobaric system ends in destruction

The Russians were also desperate enough to move up a TOS-1 thermobaric artillery piece near the frontline, an immensely powerful artillery system, but suffering from a short range of under 4 kilometers, allowing Ukrainians to easily destroy such a powerful Russian asset.

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Ukrainian strikes cripple Russian logistics and command

A significant factor contributing to these disorganized and ineffective Russian attempts lies in Ukraine’s strategic operational targeting, which has severely disrupted Russian logistics and command structures. Ukrainian HIMARS missile strikes systematically target troop concentrations in and around Donetsk city, effectively thinning out Russian frontline manpower long before troops even deploy forward.

Such attacks drastically reduce Russian operational readiness and create logistical nightmares, leaving commanders scrambling to find soldiers for assaults.

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Precision strike decapitates Russia’s 8th Guards Army command

Further deepening Russian disarray, Ukrainian forces recently executed a devastating follow-up precision strike on the headquarters of Russia’s 8th Guards Combined Arms Army in Donetsk. As you remember from a previous report, the first successful strike took out the only Russian commander who made any real gains for Russia in the past year.

Now the second strike effectively decapitated the Russian local command by killing the newly appointed commander, along with more than 10 other high-ranking officers, including his potential successor.

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Battle for Pokrovsk intensifies

Ukrainian military officials confirmed these strikes aimed to cripple Russian command-and-control capabilities, with the new Russian commander being at the head of Russia’s most important offensive, who hasn’t planned it, and might not be qualified to lead 100,000 soldiers in a multidirectional offensive spanning from Velyka Novosilka to Pokrovsk. The latest Ukrainian attack also targeted the command post of Russia’s 20th Motorized Rifle Division, causing additional damage to the Russian command structures.

Overall, Russian forces did manage to identify a weak spot on Pokrovsk’s southwestern perimeter, briefly infiltrating it with sabotage units. However, rapid Ukrainian reactions combined with continuous drone coverage effectively neutralized these threats before Russia could capitalize on any gains. Although initial direct assault attempts were swiftly repelled, the battle for Pokrovsk has decisively begun and will likely intensify significantly.

Recognizing the massive Russian buildup in the region, over 100,000 troops strong, Ukrainian commanders have proactively targeted troop concentrations and command structures. These measures aim to disrupt Russian operational cohesion and decisively weakened their massive force deployment, laying the groundwork for continued successful defense that could break Russian forward momentum.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are interesting updates from the Lyman direction. Here, the Russian frustration grows bigger with every day due to the lack of advances, shortage of supplies, and a disastrous kill-to-loss ratio.

This has forced Russian commanders to order even more desperate attacks with Russian soldiers being turned into unintentional suicide bombers by essentially carrying explosive vests with them during assaults.

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Relentless Russian assaults bring only casualties

In the Lyman direction, Russian forces have found themselves hopelessly stuck, unable to advance despite relentless infantry assaults. The repeated frontal attacks have become disastrously costly, leading to massive casualties at unprecedented rates. In addition, frontline Russian units are starved of supplies, making it impossible to sustain effective combat operations.

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Drones reveal Russian troops carrying mortar shells by hand

In multiple engagements, Ukrainian drone operators have observed Russian soldiers being sent forward carrying individual mortar rounds to deliver to mortar crews on their way to the front, a desperate measure indicating a total logistical breakdown and highlighting the grim conditions Russian troops face in this sector.

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Ukrainian drone crews crush Russian night assaults

Geolocated video evidence has extensively documented how Russian forces continually get bogged down in front of Ukrainian defenses, immobilized by dense minefields, carefully placed caltrops, and relentless drone strikes. Ukrainian drone operators from the 63rd Mechanized Brigade have become exceptionally proficient at hunting down and neutralizing isolated Russian assault groups at night with one crew eliminating 23 enemy soldiers in one night.

Whenever Russian troops manage to briefly occupy new positions, swift Ukrainian counterattacks and drone bombardments immediately push them back or eliminate them. This cycle of attrition leaves Russian infantry units trapped in a futile loop of unsuccessful and deadly assaults. This extreme frustration has led Russian commanders and soldiers to adopt increasingly desperate and reckless methods.

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Mine-carrying vests turn soldiers into suicide bombers

One striking phenomenon captured repeatedly in battlefield footage is the unintended emergence of kamikaze-like Russian soldiers. In a released video, a Russian soldier was running to assault Ukrainian positions with a grenade in his hand, but when Ukrainian troops met him with heavy fire, he began to retreat, fell on his grenade, and blew himself up.

Instead of reconsidering their reckless tactics, the Russian command doubled down on the idea. Soldiers were soon seen wearing specially designed vests meant to carry anti-tank mines, intended as a practical way to carry mines to the front, and quickly deploy explosives upon reaching Ukrainian positions, allowing troops to remain armed while carrying the mines.

However, these vests turned into deadly traps, as when these mine-carrying soldiers are hit by Ukrainian fire, their vests detonate, instantly killing the wearer and any comrades nearby. Though not intended as literal suicide vests, the practical outcome has ironically turned Russian soldiers into unintentional suicide bombers, grim evidence of the extreme desperation gripping the Russian frontlines.

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Russian war crime: Civilian shot dead in Torske

Beyond battlefield absurdity, this sense of desperation has manifested in horrific violence against Ukrainian civilians as well. Recent footage from the village of Torske captured Russian troops cruelly shooting a civilian riding a bicycle, a clear and disturbing war crime. While desperation offers context, it certainly provides no justification for such barbaric and needless violence.

Unfortunately, such incidents have been systematically documented across multiple sectors of the frontline, revealing a broader pattern of brutality and indiscipline among Russian forces.

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Ukrainians track and eliminate the killers

However, Ukrainian drone operators and artillery teams swiftly respond to such atrocities. After observing the killing of the civilian on his bicycle in Torske, Ukrainians methodically tracked down and eliminated the Russian soldiers responsible, delivering some measure of justice and demonstrating Ukraine’s resolve in protecting and defending their civilians’ lives.

Overall, such distressing examples highlight a deeply troubling trend driven by Russian desperation and logistical failure. The inability to adequately supply their forward-deployed troops has created the absurd situation of soldiers advancing while strapped with anti-tank mines, transforming themselves into explosive targets. Such grotesque improvisations underline how disconnected Russian commanders have become from battlefield realities, willing to grasp at even the most dangerous and ill-advised tactics simply to achieve some negligible progress.

More than half of the summer offensive season is already gone with virtually no progress achieved near Lyman, and none at all at Torske specifically. Now, Russian forces have resorted to self-defeating and absurd methods out of sheer frustration and desperation vividly demonstrating the catastrophic failure of their offensive ambitions.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, the biggest news comes from the Russian alliance.

Here, a new trade offensive reveals the United States has found a soft underbelly in the Brics alliance. Brazil, long seen as the most vulnerable member of the Russian economic alliance, is now facing steep tariffs and mounting pressure, turning it into a frontline state in the economic war to isolate Russia.

So far, the attack has been led by President Donald Trump himself. The White House has confirmed that tariffs on Brazilian seafood will rise to 50 percent starting at the beginning of August, currently the highest such penalty in the world. 

According to reports from Rio Grande do Norte, where much of the industry is based, the impact could be immediate: more than 30 vessels may suspend operations, 1,500 workers could lose their jobs, and major exporters like Produmar warn that sales to the US will become unfeasible. 

While framed as a trade policy decision, Washington has already signaled broader escalation: satellite services like GPS may be restricted, sanctions on government entities are on the table, and US diplomats are pressuring Brazil to break alignment with the Brics coalition, a bloc now increasingly seen as the backbone of Russia’s geopolitical strategy.

The official justification is highly personal. President Trump has repeatedly criticized Brazil’s prosecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who attempted to orchestrate a military coup through 2022 and 2023, calling it a witch hunt against Trump’s political ally. But behind this statement, a broader strategic move is at play. 

Brics has emerged as the United States’ most significant economic and geopolitical competitor, and Brazil is one of the original BRICS members and the third largest economy in the group behind China and India, yet it is also the most dependent on the United States for exports, finance, and high-tech imports.

By pressuring Brazil first, Washington is testing whether the BRICS alliance can survive an asymmetric economic war, beginning not with the most defiant members, but instead with the most exposed.

That exposure runs deep; roughly 20 percent of Brazil’s exports go to the United States, and many of its most profitable industries, agriculture, energy, and aerospace, depend on access to US markets, machinery, and data systems to function properly. The threat of cutting off GPS access is especially serious: Brazil’s space agency and large agricultural businesses greatly rely on American satellite data for everything from navigation to logistics and crop planning.

Although Brazil is now exploring alternatives, switching systems would take years, cost billions, and potentially isolate the country from its biggest investors. 

This is precisely what makes the US strategy so dangerous for BRICS cohesion. If the glass canon of the Brazilian economy folds under pressure, it might also be forced to halt its participation in key BRICS initiatives or leave the coalition altogether, meaning that Russia will face immediate consequences. 

Moscow has spent years promoting BRICS as a geopolitical counterweight to the West, including through de-dollarized trade, shared financial infrastructure, and new commodity pricing schemes. If Brazil steps back, it could disrupt these alternative Russian trade routes, payment mechanisms, and undermine diplomatic coordination, leaving Russia even more isolated at a time when its access to hard currency, global finance, and reliable partners is already shrinking. 

The pressure comes as Russia faces major economic troubles; sanctions, crackdowns on its shadow fleet, and de-dollarization have sharply limited its trade options. 

Brics remains Moscow’s best shot at salvaging energy exports, arms sales, and financial alternatives, and therefore its economy. Losing Brazil would weaken the bloc’s credibility and further erode Russia’s international pitch of Brics as a viable economic system, and unlike India, Brazil lacks scale, self-sufficiency, or military leverage, and if it folds, others will notice.

Overall, the United States has launched a calculated strike on the weakest point of the Russian Brics alliance, using tariffs, sanctions, and diplomatic pressure to peel away Brazil from its economic allies. What was framed as a protest over Bolsonaro’s prosecution might be a clever move to combat the US’s biggest geopolitical competitor.

And as BRICS fractures, Russia risks becoming even more isolated, losing the alliance’s third-largest economy, and one larger than its own, which would strip Moscow of credibility and critical leverage.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Day 1251

On 28 July, there is a lot of news from the Lyman direction.

Here, one Ukrainian brigade found an ingenious use for ancient Roman tactics on the current battlefield, combining them with modern warfare elements and technology to sabotage the Russian advance toward Lyman. This created a zone so lethal that these Ukrainians are eliminating at an insane ration of 66 Russian soldiers for every Ukrainian casualty they take.

In the sector near Lyman, despite holding a substantial bridgehead across the Zherebets River, Russian forces remain critically overstretched. Their goal to establish a direct route towards Lyman, a town they’ve fruitlessly sought to capture for over two years, remains distant. Consequently, Russian commanders have redirected significant effort toward breaching the defensive lines around Torske, hoping to improve their severely limited logistical situation across the Zherebets River.

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Standing firmly against this intense Russian pressure is Ukraine’s battle-hardened 63rd Mechanized Brigade. Exploiting favorable terrain, the brigade has expertly leveraged local geography for defensive advantage. To the north of Torske, large reservoirs limit Russian maneuverability and prevent effective flanking actions, isolating their frontal assaults. South of Torske, expansive forested areas have allowed Ukrainian forces to establish deep fire control zones, creating lethal chokepoints for attacking Russian infantry and motorbike squads.

The results of this skillful Ukrainian defense have been devastating for the Russians. Despite substantially increased assaults, Russian forces face severe shortages of armor, forcing commanders to resort primarily to infantry assaults on motorcycles and ATVs. In response, the 63rd Brigade has perfected a ruthless, cost-effective defensive strategy that has yielded a stunning kill to death ratio in their favor. The extraordinary figure indicates that for each Ukrainian soldier lost, Russian forces lose around 66 troops, a devastating statistic demonstrating Ukrainian tactical superiority in the area.

Key to Ukraine’s remarkable defensive success here is the innovative revival of ancient Roman warfare tactics, particularly the widespread use of caltrops. Historically, Roman soldiers employed caltrops, metal devices designed with spikes positioned in all directions, as highly effective area-denial tools. Placed on roads, fields, or forest pathways, caltrops punctured enemy horses’ hooves, forced troops into open, vulnerable spaces, and slowed advancing units significantly, enabling Roman forces to saturate their exposed enemies with projectiles.

Now, the Ukrainian 63rd Brigade applies this ancient tactic using drones to disperse modern versions of caltrops across Russian assault paths. Unlike traditional mines, caltrops are inexpensive, safe to deploy remotely, and difficult to detect through drone surveillance.

When Russian motorbike squads inevitably run over these hidden traps, they are flung off their bikes and forced into exposed areas to clear these small but numerous obstacles, instantly becoming easy targets for Ukrainian artillery, small arms fire, and precision drone strikes.

The Ukrainian effectiveness is further strengthened by their approach to active defense. When Russian units temporarily occupy forward positions, the Ukrainians immediately launch aggressive drone strikes before enemy soldiers can consolidate or recover. These rapid, coordinated counterattacks exploit the exhaustion and disorder of freshly arrived Russian troops, further compounding their casualties before they are completely pushed back and eliminated.

The desperation of Russian forces in this area is increasingly evident. Troops are frequently spotted employing thermal cloaks intended to shield them from detection, yet their poor implementation renders them ineffective, making Russian soldiers even more visible to Ukrainian drones equipped with standard or thermal imaging. Consequently, geolocated drone footage frequently shows Russian units easily identified and swiftly eliminated, despite their attempts at concealment.

Recognizing their unfavorable situation, Russian soldiers in this sector are increasingly choosing to surrender. Facing overwhelming tactical and technological inferiority, many Russian personnel clearly understand they will never survive long enough to leverage their numerical superiority and engage directly with Ukrainian positions.

Overall, Ukraine’s creative application of ancient Roman caltrops combined with cutting-edge drone warfare has produced a lethal defensive tactic. The persistent employment of this approach by the 63rd Mechanized Brigade near Torske has devastated Russian infantry assaults, completely undermining the Russian offensive and maintaining relentless battlefield stagnation. The resurrection of ancient warfare techniques, enhanced by current technology, has decisively turned this frontline area into a killing ground that Russian commanders can neither bypass nor penetrate.

In the sector near Lyman, despite holding a substantial bridgehead across the Zherebets River, Russian forces remain critically overstretched. Their goal to establish a direct route towards Lyman, a town they’ve fruitlessly sought to capture for over two years, remains distant. Consequently, Russian commanders have redirected significant effort toward breaching the defensive lines around Torske, hoping to improve their severely limited logistical situation across the Zherebets River.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war

Today, the biggest news comes from the Caucasus. 

Here, as Georgia flexes its muscles by hosting large-scale NATO military exercises, it no longer hides its desire to be rid of Russian influence. The participation of Ukrainian troops, battle-hardened and equipped with extensive drone warfare experience, has only heightened Russian anxieties, suggesting a rising threat that could challenge Moscow from the south.

The NATO military exercise Agile Spirit 2025, recently commenced in Türkiye and Georgia, strengthens ties and coordination between NATO and non-NATO forces in the southern Caucasus. The NATO force includes soldiers from 12 NATO countries, as well as Georgia, Moldova, and notably Ukraine as non-NATO participants, with Armenia and Japan serving as observers. 

Agile Spirit comprises command and staff training, field exercises, live-fire demonstrations, and the exchange of knowledge and experience between participants. The exercise focuses on enhancing interoperability between NATO forces and Western-aligned non-NATO countries, to increase coordination and combat capabilities in the event of Russian military actions in the South Caucasus and possible NATO intervention. 

Georgia’s desire to host these exercises does not come out of nowhere; notably, Russia conducted similar tactics to keep Georgia within its sphere as it did with Ukraine. Russia sponsors the separatist breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia with funding, soldiers, and weapons, to keep Georgia from moving to the West; akin to the Donetsk separatist movements in 2014 in Ukraine. 

Russia has since used its position here to bully and threaten Georgia into submission, with over 54 documented cases of Russian soldiers continuously moving border posts, thereby annexing and splitting whole Georgian towns and communities, to name one example. This has resulted in a large resentment against Russia among the Georgians, and many do not want to stand idly by as Russia continues its war in Ukraine and threatens to do the same to their country. 

As the goal of the military exercises is to enhance combat readiness specifically against a Russian threat, Ukraine’s participation in the NATO exercise is not insignificant, and many Russian analysts are concerned this could lead to a severe threat emerging from the south. 

Ukraine’s over a decade-long experience in fighting the Russian army is a treasury of information for allied armed forces. Sharing Ukraine’s expertise in conducting and countering modern drone warfare with allies will allow Georgia to better prepare for any military or hybrid threat coming from the Russian Federation.

Additionally, Ukraine could easily equip Georgia with its drone technology and production expertise, providing the nation with all the necessary means to counter the Russian army in a direct conflict. 

Essentially, Georgia’s proper preparation for a conflict with Russia means that the country is no longer an easy target for Russian expansion, should Russia attempt to maintain its influence through military means. Georgia could even choose to follow in the same footsteps as Syria and Azerbaijan, taking advantage of the Russian military being too preoccupied by the war in Ukraine to provide any kind of intervention. 

Similar to how the Syrian rebels took advantage of Russian neglect to overthrow Assad’s regime, and how Azerbaijan won several wars and offensives against Russia’s former ally Armenia, Georgia may seek to implement its newfound tactics and technologies to retake the lost territories in the north. 

Militarily, Georgia would already have the capabilities to defeat both separatist regions in a one-on-one engagement, fielding sufficient manpower, armor, artillery, and air support to overrun the two regions. However, Ukrainian technological support and tactical experience would ensure that Georgia could retake its land, as well as hold its own if Russia were to manage a limited intervention, something Russian forces notably were not able to do in either Syria or against Azerbaijan. 

Overall, Ukraine’s participation in this year’s Agile Spirit exercises promises to give Georgia the ability to independently stand up against Russian aggression. Learning from the extensive experience Ukraine has in fighting Russia, Georgia could possibly even retake separatist lands long used by Russia to maintain control over the Caucasus nation. With Georgia fearing it would befall the same fate as Ukraine, the strategically important nation has all the more reason to fight Russian aggression before Moscow can pull the trigger.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, the biggest news comes from Serbia.
Despite mounting threats from Moscow, Serbia is deepening its support for Ukraine through covert arms transfers and reconstruction offers, signaling that it is no longer willing to be intimidated.

Belgrade continues to play both sides, but the balance is shifting. Each new step brings it closer to the Western camp.

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Serbian weapons factories supply Ukraine

Despite its historical alignment with Moscow, Serbia continues to support Ukraine’s war effort quietly.

Serbian arms producers are expanding shipments of ammunition to Ukraine, using gray-scheme transfers through NATO intermediaries. Shell components from Serbian factories are exported to companies in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic, which assemble them and deliver the final products to the front.

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Over 100,000 shells and 1 million rounds

Delivering over 100,000 artillery shells and 1 million rounds of ammunition, the scale of these operations has drawn sharp criticism from Russian intelligence.

Moscow has accused Belgrade of profiting from the war while hiding behind a multi-vector policy. But the Kremlin’s warnings have not reversed Serbia’s behavior; if anything, they appear to have emboldened it.

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Vucic promises to help rebuild Ukrainian cities

President Aleksandar Vucic has pledged to help rebuild Ukrainian cities as a gesture of continued support.

The announcement came during a summit in Odesa, and Vucic has repeated the message on Serbian television, making it clear that the offer is not just a one-off claim.

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Humanitarian aid without sanctions

Although Serbia has not joined any EU sanctions against Russia and refuses to sign anti-Russian declarations, the government continues to emphasize Ukraine’s territorial integrity and provide humanitarian assistance.

These actions include earlier deliveries of generators and medical supplies, and now a readiness to contribute to postwar reconstruction.

The Kremlin has taken notice, but public threats have not deterred Vucic’s position.

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A nation divided between West and East

This balancing act is made even more delicate by the divide between Serbia’s political leadership and its population.

Serbian society remains overwhelmingly sympathetic to Russia, a legacy of cultural, historical, and geopolitical ties, along with a deep distrust of the West after the Yugoslav wars.

The government, however, remains committed to European Union accession and understands that cooperation with Ukraine is now part of that deal.

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Quiet alignment with the West

Rather than openly choosing a side, Belgrade is trying to appease Brussels through quiet aid deliveries and public gestures of goodwill, without provoking domestic backlash or triggering a confrontation with Moscow by cutting ties with Russia completely.

This strategy of silent alignment has worked so far, but each new step toward Ukraine and the West makes it harder to sustain.

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Russian sabotage hits Serbian arms plant

Russia has already responded with escalation: a powerful explosion struck the Krusik munitions plant supplying arms to Ukraine, injuring seven workers.

Serbian officials did not publicly assign blame, but the timing and pro-Russian analysts strongly suggest sabotage.

Moscow has also used diplomatic pressure, state media smears, and veiled threats to signal that further alignment with the West will carry consequences.

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Pressure mounts as Serbia chooses its future

With Russian stakes in Serbia’s energy sector, particularly through Gazprom’s Serbian subsidiary, being increasingly vulnerable to European sanctions, Serbia faces growing pressure to choose between Russia and deeper Western integration.

Arms shipments continue through third countries despite public denials, and reconstruction offers are now made openly.

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Russia’s pressure backfires

Russia’s decision to escalate with sabotage may have backfired: it did not silence Serbia and may have convinced its leadership that neutrality is no longer sustainable.

Despite deep social and historical ties to Russia, Serbian officials may now realize that continued alignment with Moscow is a losing hand, and that integration with the West offers a more secure long-term path.

Overall, Serbia is quietly leaving Russia behind.

Its aid to Ukraine is expanding and is becoming harder to ignore. The longer this balancing act continues, the more obvious it becomes that Serbia sees its future in cooperating with Europe, and not as Moscow’s last outpost in the Balkans—recalibrating the country’s position through quiet defiance, economic opportunity, and geopolitical necessity.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Day 1249

On 25 July, the biggest news comes from Europe.

New sanctions from the United Kingdom and the European Union are tightening the noose around Russia’s shadow fleet, the covert network of tankers that has long helped Moscow dodge oil export restrictions. This time, enforcement is not only more coordinated but also more surgical, and the effects are beginning to show across the broader infrastructure of Russia’s war economy.

Most recently, the United Kingdom unveiled its latest sanctions package, which directly targets dozens of tankers suspected of transporting Russian oil in violation of the G7 price cap, operating under flags of convenience and obscure ownership structures to avoid detection. London has now imposed asset freezes on over 100 shadow fleet vessels and sanctioned several front companies that provide critical insurance, financing, and logistical support, embedded in global maritime hubs. Beyond targeting individual vessels, the UK’s restrictions also prohibit any UK-based companies from interacting with ships or firms linked to sanctioned oil trade, thereby closing off access to a broad range of legal and financial services that have long sustained the shadow fleet.

In parallel, the European Union has adopted its 18^th sanctions package, with new measures aimed at undermining the legal and logistical foundations of shadow fleet operations. The package introduces enhanced penalties for any port offering services to re-flagged or disguised Russian tankers, creates a public blacklist of vessels involved in price cap violations, and extends sanctions to intermediaries that provide false documentation regarding the origin of cargo. Perhaps most importantly, the European Union now authorizes penalties against third-party countries, companies, and organizations that facilitate Russian circumvention efforts.

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This move places significant pressure on states such as Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates, which have quietly hosted the fleet’s support infrastructure. Taken together, the actions of the United Kingdom and the European Union amount to the most comprehensive assault yet on Russia’s oil export system.

The effects of this crackdown are already being felt in the water. Earlier this year, a Russian-affiliated tanker docked in Belgium, and was only later identified as part of the shadow fleet, triggering internal reviews across European ports and prompting the introduction of stricter inspection protocols. Since that incident, insurance firms have come under increased scrutiny, maritime monitoring has intensified, and cooperation between European customs and naval forces has expanded. This makes it significantly harder for Russian tankers using falsified or re-flagged registrations to access European ports or services, forcing the fleet into riskier, longer, and more expensive trade routes.

These constraints are showing the effect of a deeper financial crisis. Russia is no longer able to rely on stable dollar-denominated transactions and has instead turned to trading with strategic partners, paying Iran 104 million dollars in gold for Shahed drones and offering weapons and industrial components to North Korea in exchange for artillery shells and frontline soldiers. As covered in a previous report, the Kremlin has also resorted to using cryptocurrency and shell companies based outside of Russia to hide the nature of arms deals and payment transfers. These improvisations may help Moscow stay afloat in the short term, but they reflect how their economic system is losing access to hard currency and struggling to sustain even the most basic elements of war finance.

The geographic consequences are just as significant. With the Baltic Sea under increasing surveillance and the Black Sea heavily contested, Russia has shifted some of its shadow fleet activity to Arctic ports such as Murmansk; however, these are a last resort, as they remain ice-free for only seven to eight months of the year. Yet even these fallback routes are becoming less viable, as the United Kingdom and Norway have increased maritime patrols in the Barents and North Seas, regions where they maintain logistical and geographic naval advantages. The result is a tightening noose around the shadow fleet: as evasion options shrink and enforcement improves, Russia’s ability to maintain oil flows and convert the revenues into weapons faces a steadily rising cost curve.

Overall, the clampdown on Russia’s shadow fleet marks a shift from symbolic pressure to systematic disruption. As enforcement expands from financial tools to maritime routes themselves, Moscow faces a narrowing horizon, where every export, workaround, and transaction becomes harder to hide, more expensive to maintain, and less capable of sustaining the war.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

 

Day 1247

On 24 July, there is a lot of news from the Sumy direction.

Here, after Russian commanders forced their soldiers into a bloodbath in the fields, the result of a larger Ukrainian strategy in play began to bear its fruits. With fresh reserves stationed too far from the frontline to reinforce, Ukrainians executed a beautiful pincer maneuver that pushed Russians back from yet another settlement, as the Russian Sumy offensive seems to have reached a complete stall.

As you remember from a previous report, after weakening Russian positions through precise airstrikes, Ukrainian forces launched successful multi-directional counterattacks, prominently retaking Andriivka in a swift maneuver. The goal behind Ukraine’s push is clear: disrupt Russia’s forward momentum, slow down their offensive, and exploit the resulting vulnerabilities. By preserving their combat power for only surgical strikes and inflicting maximum damage on Russian units, Ukrainian commanders are carefully taking the initiative and systematically weakening enemy forces.

Determined to regain the initiative themselves, Russian commanders immediately ordered repeated counterattacks to recapture Andriivka. However, evidently based on faulty intelligence, Russian troops appeared unaware that Ukrainian forces had already fully secured the settlement, mistakenly expecting to meet and support Russian forces on the ground. As a result, these Russian assaults quickly devolved into catastrophic failures.

Geolocated footage revealed fields surrounding Andriivka littered with Russian casualties and burning motorcycles, clear evidence of the heavy price paid for their reckless and misguided attacks. Not only did these fruitless assaults drain Russian manpower, but they also achieved no real gains, compounding Russia’s operational predicament.

Russian difficulties intensified further amidst the ongoing Ukrainian strike campaign targeting rear-area troop concentrations, command posts, and logistical hubs. These strikes not only inflicted substantial casualties on Russian forces but also forced Russian commanders to position their reserve forces further from the immediate area of operations. However, with these reserves stationed away from watchful Ukrainian drone reconnaissance, Russian forces are also unable to respond swiftly to rapidly unfolding events on the frontline, playing right in the hands of Ukrainian commanders. Following the devastating losses and bloodbath in the fields around Andriivka, Russian units near the frontline faced a critical manpower shortage, and lacked immediate reinforcements to stabilize their weakening positions.

Recognizing this window of opportunity and the vulnerability of the Russians, Ukrainian forces acted decisively. With Russian reserves either dead in the fields or stationed too far to provide timely reinforcements, Ukraine pressed its advantage, launching coordinated air, drone, and HIMARS missile strikes against known Russian troop concentrations in Kindrativka. Ukrainian drones methodically hunted down and eliminated Russian infantry clusters, while precise HIMARS strikes obliterated remaining fortifications and munitions stores with devastating effect. Airstrikes with AASM Hammer bombs ensured no immediate reinforcements could move forward safely, effectively neutralizing major resistance within Kindrativka itself and limiting the possibility of surviving Russian troops finding cover within the ruins.

With organized resistance in Kindrativka decisively broken, Ukrainian commanders rapidly executed a lightning assault to retake the town. Swiftly deploying units to sever Russian reinforcement routes in a pincer maneuver, Ukrainian forces prevented any additional enemy units from reaching Kindrativka and helping the entrenched but scattered Russian soldiers holed up in the town. Simultaneously, Ukrainian assault teams penetrated the settlement, systematically sweeping through houses and basements, clearing the area of remaining Russian holdouts. Within hours, Ukrainian troops secured Kindrativka, facing minimal opposition and establishing full control over the strategically significant village.

Overall, the recapture of Kindrativka represents an important milestone in Ukraine’s wider strategy to halt the Russian offensive into the Sumy region. By reclaiming this key border settlement, Ukraine significantly disrupted Russian logistics and troop rotations, effectively sabotaging Russia’s goal of establishing drone and artillery fire control over the regional capital, Sumy. By exploiting Russian vulnerabilities created by previous strikes, Ukraine has carefully engineered tactical breakthroughs, forcing Russia into unsustainable losses and operational confusion. The strategic success in Kindrativka showcases Ukraine’s ability to leverage precision firepower and agile maneuver warfare, systematically dismantling Russian advances while creating opportunities for further counteroffensive actions.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Day 1245

On 22 July, the biggest news comes from Russia.

Here, a staggering announcement has pulled the curtain back on the country’s wartime manpower crisis. Moscow plans to import one million Indian workers, a move that reveals the scale of Russia’s internal collapse and its growing dependence on foreign labor to sustain even basic functions. The announcement came from the Ural Chambers of Commerce and Industry, which revealed plans to bring in one million Indian laborers to fill vacancies left by Russians sent to the front.

These workers are not being hired for skilled industry or reconstruction, but keep everyday systems running, a signal that Russia’s domestic labor pool has been gutted by conscription. Framing this as a commercial initiative barely conceals its real function: covering for the massive depletion of able-bodied workers across the country.

The impact was immediate, and while state media largely ignored the news, regional outlets and officials confirmed it quietly, and the announcement circulated widely on military-focused channels.

What little commentary emerged from Russian politicians was vague and avoidant, focused on economic partnerships rather than addressing the underlying issue. But the move did not go unnoticed; it broke a powerful illusion that Russia, despite mounting casualties and mobilization rounds, could rely indefinitely on its population. This moment also reveals growing fatigue inside Russian society; the silence of the state has left a vacuum filled with sarcasm and unease. Russian veterans’ associations and military analysts, many of whom have supported earlier mobilizations, are now beginning to question the logic of replacing conscripted citizens with foreigners. Their tone has shifted from patriotic confidence to guarded discomfort, a trend that points to a broader decline of the war narrative.

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The scale of this decline was underscored by a separate development just days earlier. Pavel Gubarev, a former official of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic, publicly admitted that Russia has suffered over one million killed, wounded, or missing in just three and a half years. A million is not a small number, he said, a statement all the more notable because it came not through official channels, but during an informal interview that quickly spread online. No Kremlin spokesperson has confirmed the figure, but Gubarev’s words offered a rare breach in the wall of censorship and illustrated how deeply the toll has cut into Russian society.

The Indian Labor plan is not an isolated event; it is part of a broader shift in how Russia is attempting to offset its mounting losses. In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have captured multiple Cameroonian nationals in frontline areas. These individuals had been promised factory work in Russia but were issued military gear upon arrival. Their contracts promised just about 1 million rubles or 13 thousand dollars, significantly less than Russian recruits, confirming that Moscow is sourcing expendable labor from abroad.

Many appear unaware of their actual assignments until it is too late, and a similar pattern is emerging with Laos. According to Ukrainian intelligence, a contingent of Laotian engineering troops is being deployed to the Kursk region under the label of demining operations.

But the same pattern, masked deployments of foreign military personnel, has already been seen in cases involving North Korea and other partners. Moscow appears to be rebranding foreign troop presence as humanitarian aid to skirt domestic sensitivities and international scrutiny.

Russia’s military reliance on imported labor is no longer a rumor or an isolated tactic; it is becoming an institutionalized strategy. In doing so, Moscow is quietly acknowledging what it cannot say openly: that the war has drained its population, that patriotic mobilization is no longer enough, and that without external manpower, even the home front may begin to falter.

Overall, the decision to bring in one million Indian workers is not simply a logistical fix; it is a political rupture.

Russia’s war is now visibly outsourced, with foreign labor increasingly filling roles once held by Russian citizens. India, Cameroon, and Laos are not volunteering support; they are being drawn into a system that conceals its real costs and intentions.

For Ukraine and its partners, this shift is a clear indicator that Russia’s manpower crisis is not just real, it is accelerating.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Day 1243

On 20 July, the biggest news comes from Azerbaijan.

Here, the government has arrested Wagner fighters who fought for Russia in Ukraine, directly targeting the Kremlin’s most dangerous organization. It is a bold move that does not just reject Russian influence in the South Caucasus but actively begins to dismantle Moscow’s entire post-Soviet power network.

This is the first time a post-Soviet country has prosecuted its citizens for joining Wagner. The first two mercenaries, Ramil Aliyev and Ismayil Hasanov, had both served time in Russian penal colonies before being recruited into Wagner under Prigozhin’s Project-K and sent to fight in Ukraine. Both men had served time in Russian penal colonies before being recruited under Wagner’s Project-K, a prison pipeline organized by Yevgeny Prigozhin to fuel Russia’s war in Ukraine. The two Azerbaijanis are accused of using firearms and explosives in Ukraine, as well as attempting to recruit others to fight for Wagner.

A court in Baku ordered them detained, applying criminal statutes typically used for mercenary or terror-related offenses. These charges go beyond domestic law; they are a warning to all former Wagner fighters: they will be treated not as veterans, but as war criminals.

The decision to prosecute Wagner fighters comes as part of a broader shift in Azerbaijan’s posture toward Moscow. Rather than quietly distance itself, Baku is now actively targeting Russian influence across multiple fronts: military, political, and informational. The arrests are not just about justice or legality, they are about cutting off Russian leverage. Project-K was one of Wager’s most controversial efforts, blending criminality with state-backed warfare. By going after these individuals now, Azerbaijan is effectively retroactively criminalizing its citizens’ involvement in Russia’s proxy structure.

This legal offensive follows Baku’s decision to label Sputnik-Azerbaijan a Russian intelligence front, accusing its staff of running information warfare campaigns and building pro-Kremlin influence networks inside the country.

While that episode focused on soft power, the Wagner arrests are something different: they mark the beginning of hard legal action against Russian hybrid operatives on Azerbaijani soil. No other country in the region has drawn such a hard legal line, making this a precedent-setting moment.

Diplomatic tensions have escalated in parallel, when a Russian delegation led by Emergency Situations Minister Aleksandr Kurenkov visited Baku in July carrying a diplomatic message from Vladimir Putin, President Illham Aliyev refused to meet them. That snub was deliberate and deeply symbolic, in the post-Soviet space, as Russia has traditionally relied on in-person meetings and backchannel diplomacy to maintain leverage.

But this time, Azerbaijan shut the door; the refusal to receive Putin’s envoy suggests that Baku no longer sees Russian diplomacy as useful or necessary. It also signals that Azerbaijan is prepared to let relations deteriorate further if Moscow keeps pushing.

In the meantime, Azerbaijan is strengthening ties with Ukraine in both practical and symbolic ways. Baku recently sent specialized demining equipment to Ukrainian forces, support that may appear modest on paper, but carries real strategic weight. It directly contributes to Ukraine’s ability to clear liberated areas, protect civilians, and prepare for counteroffensive operations. Azerbaijan is openly siding with Ukraine on key security issues, while simultaneously targeting Russia’s covert networks at home. And it is doing so without Western prompting, showing that Russia’s isolation is becoming self-reinforcing.

Behind all of this lies a deeper shift; Azerbaijan is no longer trying to balance between East and West. It is picking sides, and doing so with surgical precision. The prosecutions, media clampdown, and diplomatic snubs are part of a coherent policy aimed at dismantling Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus. For Moscow, this is not just a diplomatic headache; it is a strategic defeat, its once loyal partner is now helping Ukraine, rejecting backchannel envoys, and arresting Wagner fighters as criminals.

Overall, the crackdown on Wagner is not just a domestic legal move; it reshapes the regional landscape. By treating Russian mercenaries as criminals rather than veterans, Baku is signaling to the rest of the post-Soviet world that the old rules of Russian dominance no longer apply. Russia’s soft and hard power tools are being dismantled from within, and Azerbaijan is leading the way.

Today, the biggest news comes from Azerbaijan.

Here, the government has arrested Wagner fighters who fought for Russia in Ukraine, directly targeting the Kremlin’s most dangerous organization. It is a bold move that does not just reject Russian influence in the South Caucasus but actively begins to dismantle Moscow’s entire post-Soviet power network.

This is the first time a post-Soviet country has prosecuted its citizens for joining Wagner. The first two mercenaries, Ramil Aliyev and Ismayil Hasanov, had both served time in Russian penal colonies before being recruited into Wagner under Prigozhin’s Project-K and sent to fight in Ukraine. Both men had served time in Russian penal colonies before being recruited under Wagner’s Project-K, a prison pipeline organized by Yevgeny Prigozhin to fuel Russia’s war in Ukraine. The two Azerbaijanis are accused of using firearms and explosives in Ukraine, as well as attempting to recruit others to fight for Wagner.

A court in Baku ordered them detained, applying criminal statutes typically used for mercenary or terror-related offenses. These charges go beyond domestic law; they are a warning to all former Wagner fighters: they will be treated not as veterans, but as war criminals.

The decision to prosecute Wagner fighters comes as part of a broader shift in Azerbaijan’s posture toward Moscow. Rather than quietly distance itself, Baku is now actively targeting Russian influence across multiple fronts: military, political, and informational. The arrests are not just about justice or legality, they are about cutting off Russian leverage. Project-K was one of Wager’s most controversial efforts, blending criminality with state-backed warfare. By going after these individuals now, Azerbaijan is effectively retroactively criminalizing its citizens’ involvement in Russia’s proxy structure.

This legal offensive follows Baku’s decision to label Sputnik-Azerbaijan a Russian intelligence front, accusing its staff of running information warfare campaigns and building pro-Kremlin influence networks inside the country.

While that episode focused on soft power, the Wagner arrests are something different: they mark the beginning of hard legal action against Russian hybrid operatives on Azerbaijani soil. No other country in the region has drawn such a hard legal line, making this a precedent-setting moment.

Diplomatic tensions have escalated in parallel, when a Russian delegation led by Emergency Situations Minister Aleksandr Kurenkov visited Baku in July carrying a diplomatic message from Vladimir Putin, President Illham Aliyev refused to meet them. That snub was deliberate and deeply symbolic, in the post-Soviet space, as Russia has traditionally relied on in-person meetings and backchannel diplomacy to maintain leverage.

But this time, Azerbaijan shut the door; the refusal to receive Putin’s envoy suggests that Baku no longer sees Russian diplomacy as useful or necessary. It also signals that Azerbaijan is prepared to let relations deteriorate further if Moscow keeps pushing.

In the meantime, Azerbaijan is strengthening ties with Ukraine in both practical and symbolic ways. Baku recently sent specialized demining equipment to Ukrainian forces, support that may appear modest on paper, but carries real strategic weight. It directly contributes to Ukraine’s ability to clear liberated areas, protect civilians, and prepare for counteroffensive operations. Azerbaijan is openly siding with Ukraine on key security issues, while simultaneously targeting Russia’s covert networks at home. And it is doing so without Western prompting, showing that Russia’s isolation is becoming self-reinforcing.

Behind all of this lies a deeper shift; Azerbaijan is no longer trying to balance between East and West. It is picking sides, and doing so with surgical precision. The prosecutions, media clampdown, and diplomatic snubs are part of a coherent policy aimed at dismantling Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus. For Moscow, this is not just a diplomatic headache; it is a strategic defeat, its once loyal partner is now helping Ukraine, rejecting backchannel envoys, and arresting Wagner fighters as criminals.

Overall, the crackdown on Wagner is not just a domestic legal move; it reshapes the regional landscape. By treating Russian mercenaries as criminals rather than veterans, Baku is signaling to the rest of the post-Soviet world that the old rules of Russian dominance no longer apply. Russia’s soft and hard power tools are being dismantled from within, and Azerbaijan is leading the way.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Today, there are interesting updates from the Kupiansk direction. Here, the Russians have opened a dangerous new axis to put the Ukrainian defense northwest of Kupiansk in danger. The Ukrainian command has acted decisively, sending in experienced tank units to smash the enemy and push him back over the border.

Russian forces have recently opened a new offensive axis near the Ukrainian border by swiftly capturing the village of Milove and adjacent forested areas. Having rapidly consolidated this foothold, Russian units are now attempting to advance deeper into Ukrainian-held territory, specifically targeting a line of villages culminating at Velykyi Burluk, the largest settlement in the area.

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Russia eyes Velykyi Burluk as a logistics hub

The strategic importance of Velykyi Burluk lies in its infrastructure, which offers the Russians critical space for troop accommodation, storage of munitions, and logistical hubs necessary for further pushes.

The Russian decision to initiate this new axis is driven by their broader strategic intent to sever critical communication and supply lines between Kharkiv and two key frontline cities, Kupiansk and Vovchansk. Russian forces around Vovchansk have been stuck in a stalemate for over a year, failing repeatedly to achieve significant breakthroughs. By introducing this northern axis, Russian commanders hope to renew their stalled momentum around Vovchansk, creating additional pressure from a fresh direction.

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Ukraine acts fast to stop encirclement

However, Kupiansk remains their central objective. Russian troops have faced substantial challenges near Dvorichna, unable to sufficiently expand their limited bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil River. Thus, a successful push from the north toward Velykyi Burluk could support renewed thrusts along the Oskil and help fulfill Russia’s stalled ambition to encircle Kupiansk.

This Russian goal is gaining urgency as half the summer campaign season has already passed without meaningful progress. Russian tactical advantages in this new direction lie primarily in their proximity to their border-based supply lines, which have allowed relatively steady reinforcement and resupply efforts.

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Ukrainian armor and drones strike back

Furthermore, because the region around Milove had previously been relatively calm compared to more fiercely contested sectors, Ukrainian forces deployed there were thinly spread and not immediately prepared to resist a sudden, concentrated attack. Russians have exploited precisely these gaps in Ukraine’s extensive defensive line, advancing with small, mechanized units and infantry raids to quickly establish control over key positions.

Ukrainian forces, however, have swiftly recognized the severity of this emerging threat. Despite initially limited troop presence, Ukrainian commanders promptly redeployed mechanized reinforcements from nearby positions to counter this new threat. Ukrainian units are now actively conducting tactical hit-and-run raids, effectively leveraging Russia’s assault groups’ vulnerability.

Videos of these engagements vividly document Ukraine’s response, with one clearly showing a Ukrainian T-64BV tank and a BTR-4E Bucephalus engaging Russian infantry hidden within tree lines at point-blank range, effectively neutralizing the advancing enemy assault group.

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Drone warfare halts Russian advance near Kamianka

Meanwhile, Russian attempts to support their northern advance by expanding their precarious bridgehead near Kamianka over the Oskil River have met fierce resistance. Ukrainian forces recently thwarted a mechanized assault there, utilizing FPV drones and drone-dropped munitions to decisively halt the advance.

In the engagement, Ukrainian drone operators and infantry destroyed two Russian MT-LB armored vehicles, a BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle, and eliminated 17 assault troops, demonstrating again their skillful use of drones in such situations.

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Ukraine moves quickly to contain Russian gains

Overall, given the strategic significance of this region, it is critical for Ukrainian defensive operations that this new Russian offensive axis is decisively neutralized as early as possible. Ukrainian military leadership clearly understands the urgency and has mobilized forces to rapidly counter and contain Russian gains near Milove.

Their determined response aims to close existing defensive gaps swiftly, denying Russia further opportunities to advance toward Kupiansk, Vovchansk, or even threaten approaches to Kharkiv itself. It remains to be seen if Russian forces will simultaneously escalate their actions near Vovchansk to attempt a coordinated, multidirectional offensive to achieve the long-sought encirclement of Kupiansk this summer.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.