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Ukraine turns uninsurable war risk into investment opportunity

Verkhovna Rada - parliament of Ukraine

Verkhovna Rada’s finance committee chair Danylo Hetmantsev announced the program on Sunday, building on previous warnings from officials that “the lack of coverage for military risks is a significant obstacle to attracting investors for Ukraine’s reconstruction and economic development,” as former deputy economy minister Oleksiy Sobolev, now Ukraine’s minister of economy, environment, and agriculture, noted last year.

The plan splits coverage into two tracks: direct state compensation for war damage in frontline areas through Ukraine’s Export Credit Agency, and premium subsidies elsewhere to make insurance affordable for businesses and households.

As Hetmantsev’s announcement suggests, Ukraine is ready to solve the insurance conundrum with state backing, following successful smaller programs that have already proven the concept works.

How Ukraine plans to make war-risk insurance work

Frontline zones: The Export Credit Agency will directly compensate damaged property in the highest-risk areas near active combat through a claims-based system.

Safer regions: The government will subsidize insurance premiums across the rest of the country, making commercial coverage affordable for both Ukrainian businesses and foreign investors.

The program still needs legislative amendments to expand the Export Credit Agency’s mandate and a Cabinet decision on budget allocation. Hetmantsev described the costs as “moderate” but provided no specific figures.

“This was a challenging path. Thanks to the Cabinet of Ministers and NBU for constructive cooperation, and I expect final decisions,” he wrote on social media.

Ukraine’s war-risk experiments show promise

Ukraine isn’t building this system from scratch.

The country has been testing war-risk coverage in targeted sectors with impressive results.

Maritime success: The Unity facility, built with Marsh, Lloyd’s, and Ukrainian state banks, drove down war-risk rates for Black Sea shipping and expanded in March 2024 to cover all non-military cargo.

International backing: The World Bank’s MIGA expanded political-risk insurance for Ukraine in 2024, while broker Aon and the US Development Finance Corporation unveiled a $350 million scheme for Ukrainian businesses earlier this year.

Private market entry: A London-backed reinsurance program launched this year, offering property coverage—but only for assets more than 100 kilometers from the front lines. This shows how distance-to-combat still shapes pricing.

What investors have been waiting for

The new system aims to unify these fragmented pilot programs into comprehensive rules that private insurers and international reinsurers can price against. According to Oleksiy Sobolev, the goal is to create “a single pool, clear rules, and ultimately the ability to attract international reinsurers to this market.”

The original concept, developed last autumn by Ukraine’s National Bank, Ministry of Economy, and Ministry of Finance, envisioned financing through mandatory insurance payments and international donor support.

Coverage would protect against physical war damage, with mandatory insurance initially covering mortgaged property and residential construction projects.

The investment math that matters

If Ukraine can deliver predictable budget support and attract international reinsurer participation, the program could shift investment calculations from “uninsurable” to “expensive but manageable”—unlocking bank lending and foreign direct investment far beyond the maritime corridor.

However, the program’s scale and speed will determine whether this becomes a genuine turning point or just another limited pilot in a market still fundamentally priced for war.

The legislative timeline, budget envelope size, and reinsurer participation remain unclear.

Ukraine’s approach builds on proven models—the Unity shipping facility demonstrated that strategic state participation can dramatically reduce private market pricing while attracting commercial capital. The question is whether Ukraine can scale this from ships to the entire economy while the war continues.

For international investors who have spent three years watching Ukrainian opportunities from the sidelines, the program represents the missing piece that could finally make the risk calculable rather than simply unacceptable.

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DIU hits two Russian Mi-8 helicopters, tug in Crimea

Units of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) attacked Russian forces with drones at an airbase in Hvardiiske near Simferopol, destroying two Mi-8 helicopters, and also targeted a tug in the Sevastopol Bay.

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Man crashes car through Russian consulate gates in Sydney, police officer injured

moscow embassy Sydney

A 39-year-old man crashed his white SUV through the gates of the Russian consulate in Sydney’s eastern suburbs on the morning of 1 September after police attempted to question him about his unauthorized presence on the property, according to New South Wales Police.

Officers responded to reports of a suspicious vehicle parked in the consulate’s driveway in Woollahra around 8:30 AM. When police tried to speak with the driver, “the man allegedly drove his vehicle into the gates of the property” and continued onto the lawn, police said, according to The Guardian.

Helicopter footage captured the aftermath: the vehicle with doors open and smashed front windows positioned near a large flagpole on the consulate grounds.

An eyewitness described the confrontation to local media: “I came out and I saw a policeman with a gun, his glock, pointing at the man in the car, asking him to get out of the car. He didn’t [get out], rammed through the gates, drove onto the property and stopped again.”

The incident injured a 24-year-old constable who sustained a hand injury and received treatment from NSW Ambulance paramedics, according to police reports.

Pro-Kremlin influencer Simeon Boikov, known online as Aussie Cossack, witnessed the events from inside the consulate where he has been staying for 1,000 days while facing assault charges. “From my side, it looks like a diplomatic asylum attempt,” Boikov told reporters from within the building.

The driver was arrested and taken to Surry Hills police station for questioning. Federal police detectives launched an investigation, with the Australian Federal Police’s Diplomatic Protection Unit also involved. The vehicle was towed from the premises around 10 AM.

Minor damage to the front gate was quickly repaired, and federal police officers maintained security around the area. The Russian consulate has not responded to requests for comment, reports Guardian Australia and ABC News.

Boris Kragen, a 77-year-old Russian national from Moscow, arrived at the consulate for paperwork but found the leafy street cordoned off with police tape and multiple patrol cars blocking access. 

Video footage from witnesses captured police shouting commands at the driver: “Get out of the car immediately” and “Get on the ground,” according to media reports. The damaged driver-side windows suggested police used batons to gain access to the vehicle.

New South Wales Police confirmed the investigation remains ongoing.

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German parliamentary chiefs arrive to Kyiv for first bipartisan Ukraine mission

Leaders of the two Bundestag coalition factions Jens Spahn and Matthias Mirsch in Kyiv

Jens Spahn from the CDU/CSU and Matthias Miersch from the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) arrived in Kyiv on 1 September, DW reported.

The visit marks the first joint trip to Ukraine by the parliamentary group leaders of the CDU/CSU and SPD. Both Spahn and Miersch are making their inaugural visits to Ukraine.

The German politicians plan to discuss continued German support for Ukraine and diplomatic efforts to end the war during their stay in Kyiv, according to the report.

“Matthias Miersch and I are here to send a clear signal: the government factions CDU/CSS and SPD stand now and in the future on the side of Ukraine, the brave Ukrainians who defend their homeland, their country, and also Europe,” Spahn said.

When asked about possible security guarantees for Ukraine, Spahn emphasized that the best guarantee is a well-equipped Ukrainian army. “The first and most important security guarantee for Ukraine is the Ukrainian army. Above all, we want to equip it as well as possible,” he said.

The visit follows German Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil’s trip to Kyiv on 25 August. During that visit, Klingbeil announced Germany’s commitment to provide Ukraine with nine billion euros annually over the coming years.

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Frontline report: Ukrainian marines raise flags in recaptured settlements as Russian units withdraw in Donetsk Oblast

A screenshot from the RFU News – Reporting from Ukraine YouTube video.

Day 1284

On 30 August, the biggest news comes from the Novopavlivka sector.

Here, Ukrainian forces have launched a coordinated counteroffensive to destabilize Russian forward momentum in this contested sector in western Donetsk. In just a few days, several settlements have been recaptured, frontline positions have shifted, and drone strikes have decimated Russian strongpoints, with this being only the beginning.

A screenshot from the RFU News – Reporting from Ukraine YouTube video.

The main objective of this operation is to push Russian forces back from recently captured frontline positions, liberating exposed villages near the Mokri Yali River. This would not only reverse two months of Russian gains, but also set up a new defense with the terrain to Ukraine’s advantage.

A screenshot from the RFU News – Reporting from Ukraine YouTube video.

The specific sector was chosen for two main reasons: first, the terrain between Tolstoy, Zelenyi Hai, and Piddubne heavily favored Ukrainians. Looking at the topographic map, we can see that Ukrainian drone operators benefit from nearby high ground to the west, where they can achieve stronger signal connectivity and greater visibility, allowing more consistent targeting and loitering in enemy zones. Unlike other sectors with gulleys or dried riverbeds that disrupt drone signals, this corridor is more open and connected, providing favorable conditions for networked strikes. Lastly, the area is tied to the Mokri Yali River, which Ukrainian forces likely view as a natural barrier that could help solidify their lines once the operation concludes.

A screenshot from the RFU News – Reporting from Ukraine YouTube video.

Secondly, Russian units in the area were already showing signs of overextension following continuous attacks for months, trying to gain new positions. Russian troops deployed in this sector were additionally largely composed of undertrained troops with limited electronic warfare systems to counter Ukrainian drones, and poor conditions across battalion lines. Crucially, Russia lacked inherited hardened positions or top-down fortifications, leaving many Russian trenches here highly exposed to attacks from above by Vampire drones. Ukrainian FPV teams exploited this with methodical strikes, forcing Russian soldiers into basements and static cover.

A screenshot from the RFU News – Reporting from Ukraine YouTube video.

This eliminated any mobility or tactical depth the Russians hoped to retain, locking them into a reactive posture where recovery became increasingly difficult. The consequence was not just tactical disruption, but a breakdown in Russian ability to reinforce or coordinate under fire.

A screenshot from the RFU News – Reporting from Ukraine YouTube video.

From a planning perspective, the operation was organized as a series of limited, sequential pushes, each targeting vulnerable points along the Russian forward edge, deliberately avoiding a massed broad-front assault. Instead, Ukrainians concentrated firepower and movement on lightly defended junctions between Russian units, relying on well-coordinated assault groups supported by rapid drone reconnaissance and short-range FPV strikes. The use of drone-based precision targeting before and during maneuvers was central, allowing Ukrainian infantry to move in after initial softening without committing excessive forces.

A screenshot from the RFU News – Reporting from Ukraine YouTube video.

The operation began with Ukrainian special operations forces clearing out Russian infiltrators in the settlement of Andriivka-Klevtsove, raising the flag of their unit and laying the groundwork for the following operation.

A screenshot from the RFU News – Reporting from Ukraine YouTube video.

Ukrainian forces next targeted Russian positions along the approach to Tolstoy, with FPV drones and artillery softening up Russian defenses and restricting Russian maneuverability.

A screenshot from the RFU News – Reporting from Ukraine YouTube video.

Then, assault units advanced from the south, clearing the village in close combat, reportedly under the command of the Fifth Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade.

A screenshot from the RFU News – Reporting from Ukraine YouTube video.

Immediately afterward, Ukrainian troops advanced northward and eastward, recapturing the nearby settlement of Zelenyi Hai. Footage shows Ukrainian marines raising the national flag there, indicating full control and suggesting that Russian forces either withdrew under pressure or were neutralized during the clearing phase.

From there, the attack continued toward Piddubne and Novokhatske, and while fighting is still ongoing, Ukrainian drone teams have been eliminating Russian infantry and targeting ammunition caches near Zirka and Tovste, two villages just behind the initial line. These strikes suggest an intent not only to disrupt current Russian positions but also to reduce their ability to counterattack. Ukrainian coordination across units indicates the presence of a broader operational plan to regain control over the sector and impose cumulative attrition on Russian battalions through sustained small-unit maneuvers.

Overall, Ukraine’s counterattack in western Donetsk demonstrates how limited offensive action, when based on precise reconnaissance and strong tactical planning, can yield meaningful battlefield shifts without requiring a large-scale breakthrough. By exploiting weaknesses in Russian training, unit cohesion, and drone denial capabilities, Ukrainian forces have retaken key positions and are now positioned to continue pressuring the front southward, potentially aiming for the Mokri Yali River as a more defensible forward line to undo more months of Russian progress.

A screenshot from the RFU News – Reporting from Ukraine YouTube video.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war

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Hungary continues to veto Ukraine’s accession to EU

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Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced on 30 August that Budapest will block the opening of substantive negotiations on Ukraine’s EU membership, citing concerns over agriculture, security, and energy costs.

Hungary, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, has been actively vetoing Ukraine’s accession process to the European Union. Viktor Orbán is widely regarded as a close ally of Vladimir Putin, positioning Hungary as a key supporter of Russian interests within the EU. 

Speaking after an informal EU foreign ministers meeting in Copenhagen, Szijjarto said Hungary “will not allow the substantive part of the accession negotiations, i.e., the specific rounds of the negotiations, to be opened,” according to Hungarian media reports.

The minister justified the position by claiming Ukraine’s EU membership “would destroy Hungarian farmers, Hungary’s food security, and allow the Ukrainian mafia to enter Hungary.”

Szijjarto accused Brussels and most EU member states of prioritizing war continuation over peace negotiations.

“Brussels and most European Union member states are preparing for the long-term continuation of the Ukrainian war, are not interested in the success of peace negotiations, and are ready to send many more thousands of billions of forints to Ukraine,” he said.

The Hungarian official criticized the European Commission for acting “practically as a Ukrainian Commission, completely representing Ukraine’s interests, contrary to the interests of member states” during the Copenhagen discussions.

Hungary outlined four specific areas where it will maintain opposition to EU policy on Ukraine. The country will continue supporting US President Donald Trump’s peace efforts, as “only an American-Russian agreement can bring about a settlement,” Szijjarto said.

Ukraine applied for EU membership shortly after Russia’s invasion in 2022 and received candidate status within months. However, Hungary’s veto power as an EU member allows it to block further progress.

The Hungarian position comes amid broader EU discussions about Ukraine’s integration path and continued financial support. Hungary has consistently opposed aid packages to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia throughout the conflict.

On 13 August, Szijjarto condemned a Ukrainian drone strike on a distribution station of the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast. Hungary relies on this pipeline for most of its crude oil imports and remains one of two EU countries, along with Slovakia, still importing Russian oil via Druzhba under EU sanctions exemptions.

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Poland deports Ukrainian who threatened arson attacks

Polish Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński

Polish Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński announced the deportation of a Ukrainian citizen who posted video threats of arson attacks online.

“A Ukrainian citizen who threatened to commit arson in videos posted on the Internet was forcibly taken and deported to Ukraine by border service officers,” Kierwiński wrote on X.

The minister published footage showing the Ukrainian being handed over to Ukrainian border guards. Polish authorities had detained the individual on 29 August, according to Kierwiński’s earlier statements.

The deportation comes amid broader Polish security measures targeting Ukrainian nationals. On 30 August, Poland expelled 15 Ukrainian citizens who authorities claimed posed threats to public safety.

Border service officials reported that several of the deported Ukrainians had prior criminal convictions. The charges included possession of narcotic and psychotropic substances, theft, robbery, document forgery, drunk driving, and organizing illegal border crossings into Poland.

The cases highlight growing tensions as Polish authorities increase scrutiny of Ukrainian residents amid ongoing security concerns.

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Ukraine is counting on $1 bn a month to buy US weapons through PURL program, Zelenskyy says

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Ukraine expects its international partners to allocate at least $1 billion monthly through the PURL initiative for purchasing American weapons via NATO, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced in his evening video address.

The PURL initiative represents a coordinated effort by NATO allies to streamline weapons procurement for Ukraine through American defense manufacturers, creating a sustainable monthly funding mechanism for the country’s ongoing defense needs.

The Ukrainian leader thanked partners who joined the program this month, describing it as “a special program that allows buying necessary weapons for Ukraine’s Defense Forces – buying in America.” NATO coordinates the initiative, which has already accumulated over $2 billion in commitments.

Seven countries joined PURL in August: the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Canada, Belgium, and Latvia.

The president specified that these funds purchase highly effective weapons including Patriot missiles, HIMARS systems, and other defense equipment needed to protect Ukrainian cities.

The program gained significant momentum throughout August. The Netherlands announced its participation on 4 August, followed by Denmark, Norway, and Sweden on 5 August, with their combined assistance exceeding $1 billion at that time. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on 22 August that the NATO mechanism had attracted approximately $1.5 billion in military aid. Canada pledged $500 million to the program on 24 August.

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Zelenskyy calls Putin’s China visit “usual tactic” to avoid war accountability as global leaders demand peace

Ukrainian President

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of deliberately choosing war over peace negotiations as Vladimir Putin traveled to China for a regional security summit. The Ukrainian leader criticized Moscow for ignoring widespread international calls for a ceasefire that have emerged from leaders across multiple continents.

Zelenskyy said in his evening adress that peace talks at the leadership level were proposed in Washington two weeks ago, adding Ukraine remains prepared for such discussions. However, he said Russia has chosen a different path by continuing to invest in military operations rather than diplomacy.

“All signals from Russia indicate only the continuation of aggression,” Zelenskyy said, according to his statement. “During his visit to China, Putin will again seek ways to avoid responsibility – this is his usual tactic.”

The Ukrainian president emphasized the breadth of international opposition to the war, citing calls for peace from major global powers and religious leaders.

“The world unanimously demands a ceasefire: China says this, and India’s Prime Minister, and the leaders of Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan. Today an important statement was made by the Pope. The only one who wants war is Russia,” Zelenskyy said.

Putin’s visit to China comes amid what sources describe as a “crunch moment” in peace talks over the Ukraine war, with the Russian leader attending a regional security summit alongside other leaders.

Zelenskyy argued that international pressure on Moscow must intensify, warning that the war’s continuation destabilizes the global situation. Ukraine expects firm positions from the United States, European Union, and G20 nations, he said.

The Ukrainian president also thanked partners who joined the PURL special program, which enables weapons purchases in the United States for Ukrainian defense forces. He announced that the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Canada, Belgium, and Latvia joined the initiative in August.

“The total amount in the program has already exceeded $2 billion. Our goal is to add at least one billion monthly. These are funds for purchasing modern weapons – Patriot missiles, HIMARS and other systems that protect our cities,” Zelenskyy said.

The president previously reported that Ukrainian Defense Forces are containing Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast and toward Pokrovsk.

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Ukrainian Phantoms destroy Russia’s S-400 radars in Crimean strike

Ukrainian intelligence forces have delivered a powerful strike against the occupiers’ military infrastructure in temporarily occupied Crimea. The special unit Phantoms destroyed several expensive Russian air-defense and radar systems, the agency reports.

Phantoms strike at Russia’s defenses

According to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate, the elite unit continues systematically dismantling Russia’s air-defense network. The Phantoms are tasked with precision strikes against radar complexes, logistics hubs, and enemy military infrastructure.

What has been destroyed?

Ukrainian forces knocked out unique Russian systems, including:

  • radar complex “Utyos-T”;
  • the giant radio telescope RT-70;
  • GLONASS satellite navigation system (Russia’s equivalent of GPS);
  • coastal radar MR-10M1 “Mys” M1;
  • 96L6-AP radar from the S-400 air-defense system.

Consequences for the occupiers

The loss of these systems seriously complicates the work of Russian air defense on the peninsula. Without key radars and navigation, the occupiers are left far more vulnerable to strikes by Ukrainian missiles, aircraft, and drones.

“The demilitarization of temporarily occupied Crimea continues!” Ukraine’s military intelligence emphasizes.

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German Chancellor: Ukrainian capitulation means “tomorrow we’re next”

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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that Ukrainian capitulation would lead to Russian aggression against other states, according to his interview with ZDF channel.

Merz said the war between Russia and Ukraine could continue for an extended period. “We are trying to end it as quickly as possible. But certainly not at the price of Ukraine’s capitulation,” he added.

The Chancellor explained that while the war could end tomorrow if Ukraine surrenders and loses its independence, such an outcome would have dangerous consequences. “Only then the day after tomorrow it will be the turn of the next country. And then the day after that it will be our turn. That is not an option,” Merz said.

The German leader emphasized his government’s position on avoiding Ukrainian surrender despite the war’s potential duration. 

Regarding the possibility of a ceasefire next year, Merz expressed cautious optimism: “I don’t give up hope that we can make it happen. But I’m also not deluding myself.”

On the question of ground troops in Ukraine, Merz opposed such deployment at present. “Nobody is talking about ground troops in Ukraine at this time,” he said. 

This interview follows Merz’s earlier statements on Ukraine. On 27 August, the Chancellor argued that Ukrainian capitulation would only give the Russian dictator time to prepare for a new war. Two days later, on 29 August, Merz said Russia’s war against Ukraine could last “many months” as Putin refuses negotiations.

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59% of Ukrainians support cessation of hostilities and search for compromise

Ukrainian soldiers

Most Ukrainians favor ending combat operations through negotiated settlement while demanding concrete security assurances from Western allies, according to new polling data from the Rating Sociological Group.

The survey, conducted 21-23 August, found 59% of respondents support “cessation of hostilities and search for compromise,” while 20% back continuing the war until Donbas and Crimea are returned and 13% favor fighting until 23 February 2022 borders are restored.

Security guarantees emerge as the central precondition for any ceasefire agreement. When asked whether Ukraine should agree to stop fighting, 75% said “Yes, but only if Ukraine receives security guarantees from the USA and European countries,” according to the polling firm. Just 19% said Ukraine “should not agree under any conditions,” while 3% supported an unconditional ceasefire.

Ukrainians identified three priority security mechanisms: continued military financing and weapons supplies from partners (52%), allied commitments to enter combat if Russia attacks again (48%), and international air and sea patrols (44%).

The preference for multilateral negotiations over bilateral talks with Moscow was pronounced. The Rating group found 62% view “search for compromise with involvement of other countries” as realistic, compared to 20% who favor “direct negotiations with Russia.” Only 11% support rejecting talks entirely and “fighting until liberation of all territories.”

When asked about current priorities, 58% chose securing Western commitments for future army financing and adequate weapons supplies, while 31% prioritized territorial recovery.

Respondents most commonly said Ukraine fights Russia for “children’s future” (60%) and “freedom” (44%).

The telephone survey interviewed 1,600 adults across all oblasts except occupied Crimea and Donbas territories and areas without Ukrainian mobile coverage. The margin of error is 2.5% with 95% confidence level.

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