Russia's newest military satellites keep stalling short of orbit, and Ukraine's top technology adviser says that is exactly why no one should relax. Serhii Beskrestnov, the presidential adviser on defense technology known as Flash, warns that once Russia completes its "Rassvet" satellite network, Moscow could steer its Gerans and missiles from space, and that Ukraine has to build the jamming to stop it before that day comes.

A working Rassvet would hand Russia a permanent link to its long-range weapons, letting it control drones and missiles online through satellites, what Flash calls "a small catastrophe."

Russia is nowhere near that yet: it has launched around 32 satellites but needs 200 to 250 for stable, round-the-clock coverage, and its most recent batch stalled in low orbit. Flash's point is that the reprieve is temporary.

"Russia is a space power," he wrote, and one heavy Angara rocket could loft much of the constellation in a single launch once its engines are fixed.

Ukraine has tried to choke the program at its source, striking a Russian space-rocket plant in mid-August and reaching for the Plesetsk cosmodrome days later, though the effort has only slowed it.

The MESH failure sets the warning

His alarm rests on a mistake, he says, Ukraine already made. For a year, he wrote, no one in the armed forces systematically worked on countering the MESH radio networks Russia uses to fly its jet Gerans, and no one shielded the capital with electronic warfare, even as the enemy openly built out the technology.

Breaking what he called a lifelong rule against criticizing colleagues, he "thanked" the former commander-in-chief and his electronic-warfare chief for the lapse, he wrote a bit earlier.

The result, he said, is that Russian Geran-5 are now striking under MESH control while Ukrainian specialists scramble to catch up.

The jamming must come first

With Rassvet, Flash argues, Ukraine cannot afford the same delay. The counter-system must not only be designed but actually fielded before the constellation is up, with the country's key infrastructure shielded by the time Russia's satellites reach orbit.

"This electronic warfare must ALREADY have closed all key infrastructure sites," he wrote.

Building it, he cautioned, will be neither fast nor cheap.

Russia's newest batch of Starlink-style satellites is gaining altitude sooner and sitting higher than the country's already-working first batch did at the same point, an analysis by Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi found. That complicates recent reports that the batch will stay far below its working altitude—though a few of the craft clearly have malfunctioned.

Moscow is racing to field its own orbital network to replace the Starlink service its troops used without authorization, a system experts warn could one day relay commands to long-range strike drones.

Where the "failure" verdict came from

Business Insider reported that all 16 satellites in the second Rassvet batch—launched 19 July—had fallen short of their target orbit, citing public US Space Force tracking data. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that many of the craft sat between 300 and 400 kilometers, well below their intended orbit. Russia looks unprepared to deploy at this pace and will likely face further delays, ISW assessed. At those low heights, thicker air drags on satellites and shortens their lives. Rassvet—Russian for "Dawn"—is built by the Russian firm Bureau 1440. Moscow rushed the network in after SpaceX cut off Russian forces' access to Starlink.

What the altitude data shows

Militarnyi's own reading of the tracking record points the other way. A rocket drops the satellites near 300 kilometers, and they raise themselves over months on their own engines. The July batch fired those engines days earlier than the March group, giving it a head start. By day 46, the new batch's median altitude was 365 kilometers, against 314 for the first. Thirteen of the new craft had passed 320 kilometers and ten cleared 350, against five and one for the first batch. The newer craft climb at a slower daily pace, but the early start left them well ahead on height.

Militarnyi cautions that the batch cannot be judged before roughly 100 to 125 days after launch—around late October—the window in which most of the March craft passed 500 kilometers.

The malfunctions are real

Two satellites show no real climb and are sinking toward the atmosphere, a third rose and slipped back, and a fourth stalled with the cause unclear. The March launch lost one craft outright and left two more stuck below working height. The company had listed a target orbit near 800 kilometers, yet the first batch settled far lower and still works. Militarnyi counts thirteen of its satellites in a stable orbit near 508 kilometers, where Business Insider and ISW put twelve of them at roughly 550. By its count, they now open at least two communication windows over Ukraine each day, each running longer than an hour.

The Rassvet communications satellites Moscow launched in July are likely to have shorter operational lifespans than planned because atmospheric drag increases at their current altitudes, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported.

Moscow accelerated Rassvet’s deployment after its forces lost unauthorized Starlink access in February. A complete network could support battlefield communications and remotely controlled strikes against Ukraine, but existing satellites provide only brief connectivity windows. The latest setback will likely delay continuous coverage, ISW assessed.

Russian forces had relied heavily on unauthorized Starlink terminals for frontline communications, drone operations, and command-and-control. Ukraine and SpaceX blocked them on 5 February, disrupting Russian communications and assaults across several sectors. A Russian-controlled network could reduce Moscow’s dependence on SpaceX and illicit supply chains for terminals.

None of the 16 satellites launched on 19 July had reached 550 kilometers as of 31 August, according to N2YO tracking data cited by ISW. Many remained between 300 and 400 kilometers, some were gradually losing altitude, and at least two were reportedly heading toward atmospheric reentry.

ISW identified 550 kilometers as the altitude reached by the successful first-batch satellites, while reporting 870 kilometers as Rassvet’s intended operational altitude. At lower altitudes, satellites must use more fuel to counter greater atmospheric drag, shortening their operating lives.

Of the 32 Rassvet satellites launched in 2026, only 12—all from the first batch launched on 24 March—reached sustainable altitudes. They remained at roughly 550 kilometers and provided two daily connectivity windows over Ukraine totaling up to 90 minutes, ISW reported.

Russia needs at least 200–300 working satellites for stable, round-the-clock coverage, presidential defense-technology adviser Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov assessed. Bureau 1440 plans “dozens” more launches and “hundreds” more satellites, but Russia depends on the scarce, costly Soyuz-2.1b rocket.

Only six to eight Soyuz-2.1b launches of all types have occurred since 2022, limiting Russia to a maximum of 128 Rassvet satellites over four years at that rate, ISW assessed.

Ukraine struck the Progress Space Rocket Center, which builds Soyuz-type vehicles, on 14–15 August and attempted to strike Plesetsk Cosmodrome on 23 August, ISW noted. Both Rassvet batches launched from Plesetsk, showing Ukraine can threaten the rockets and launch infrastructure required to expand the constellation, the institute assessed.

What is Rassvet?

Rassvet, meaning “Dawn,” is a low-Earth-orbit broadband constellation developed by Bureau 1440 as Russia’s domestic alternative to Starlink. Its 5G-based satellites are intended to provide high-speed, low-latency internet independently of SpaceX.

Although initially designed for civilian communications, a mature network could provide Russian forces with battlefield connectivity, command-and-control links, and connections to long-range drones. Moscow aims to place 292 satellites in orbit by the end of 2027 and 924 by 2035.