Russia could assemble a strike force for an offensive into northern Ukraine by February 2027 if Moscow launches another mobilization, Ukrainian military intelligence's (HUR) deputy chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi told RBC-Ukraine on 18 August.

Skibitskyi said another mobilization could follow Russia’s September parliamentary elections. Depending on its scale, that call-up could produce a strike force by February 2027. Skibitskyi based the February estimate on Russia’s 2022 mobilization. He said some personnel reached the front in December 2022, while combat-ready units arrived in January 2023.

Earlier warnings identified a northern route

The February estimate follows Ukrainian warnings about possible attacks across the northern border. In May, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was tracking five scenarios for expanding the war through the north, including an advance through Chernihiv Oblast toward Kyiv.

Syrskyi called an attack from Russia’s Bryansk Oblast into Chernihiv Oblast Moscow’s most realistic northern option, ranking it above an operation through Belarus. Its purpose, he said, would be to draw Ukrainian forces away from the east and south.

Russia has also struggled to prepare other major campaigns as Ukraine targeted the forces and systems needed to carry them out. ISW assessed that Ukrainian drones likely disrupted preparations for a spring–summer offensive in Donetsk Oblast, while a planned Russian naval-drone campaign reportedly stalled after Starlink access was blocked.

Ukrainian intelligence says Russia lacks the manpower

Skibitskyi said Moscow cannot form the units required for a new offensive without mobilization. HUR estimates Russia lost more personnel than it recruited in both June and July. The shortfall reached 3,000 in June and at least 1,000 in July, meaning monthly contracts no longer replaced battlefield losses.

The agency says Russia’s operational reserve is about one-tenth the size of its combat component against Ukraine. Moscow also lacks enough personnel to expand brigades into divisions, while recruitment for its unmanned-systems forces has reached only 30% of its quota.

CSIS estimated in January that Russia had suffered losses unmatched by any major state since World War II while advancing extremely slowly.

Russia launched a massive attack on one of Ukraine’s DTEK thermal power plants, severely damaging equipment and forcing the facility to stop generating electricity, the energy company said on 18 August.

The strike comes as Russia continues its campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of another winter, with Ukrainian officials warning that Moscow is expected to intensify attacks on critical civilian systems.

DTEK power plant sustains significant damage

DTEK said Russian forces heavily damaged equipment at one of its thermal power plants, forcing the station to halt electricity generation. The company did not identify the plant or provide an estimate of when it could resume operations.

DTEK’s thermal power plants have been attacked more than 230 times since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, according to the company.

During the previous major attack on 12 June, one DTEK employee was killed, the company said.

Ukraine faces another winter of energy attacks

The latest strike adds to extensive damage Russia has inflicted on Ukraine’s power system. Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said earlier this month that Russia has destroyed or damaged more than 80% of Ukraine’s power-generating capacity.

Ukraine is preparing for another difficult winter after repeated Russian strikes last winter caused widespread damage to electricity and heating infrastructure.

Shmyhal has also warned that Russia could broaden its campaign this winter by targeting Ukraine’s water systems. Such attacks could make prolonged power outages significantly more dangerous for civilians by disrupting water supplies and sewage systems.

Kyiv Oblast faces mounting Russian attacks

The power plant strike came as Russia launched another large drone attack on Ukraine, with Kyiv Oblast the main target. Ukraine’s Air Force said dozens of drones were launched during the day, with most intercepted or suppressed by Ukrainian air defenses.

The latest assault is part of a broader pattern of Russian attacks on Kyiv Oblast in recent weeks. Alongside energy infrastructure, Russian forces have repeatedly targeted warehouses, distribution centers and other logistics facilities around the capital, disrupting the systems that supply Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine.

With winter approaching, the combination of attacks on energy generation and civilian logistics is adding pressure to a country already dealing with years of damage to its critical infrastructure.

Russia struck the capital with ballistic missiles early on 11 August. One of them came down on the grounds of a Kyiv children's hospital in the Shevchenkivskyi district. Rescuers also fought a warehouse fire nearby that left one man injured.

The Kyiv children's hospital strike

Two craters opened on the hospital grounds, while the impact shattered windows and ruptured a gas line, rescuers reported. Utility crews sealed the leak within the hour. Staff at the Kyiv children's hospital had moved patients into the shelter before the strike, so it hurt no one there.

"Luckily, the children and medics were in the shelter — there were no casualties," - State Emergency Service reported

A warehouse ablaze and one man hurt

At a second address in the same district, a strike ignited a fire across 1,200 square meters of warehouse space. Crews first contained the flames, then put them out. Medics soon treated the lone casualty, a 28-year-old man. Earlier, the Air Force had warned of the ballistic threat before the missiles arrived.

Kyiv Oblast also under fire

The wider Kyiv Oblast took damage as well. In the Bucha district, the strike wrecked warehouse buildings and three trucks, although it caused no casualties. Officials said the enemy had again hit the region with ballistic missiles and attack drones.

A far deadlier night beyond Kyiv

Elsewhere, the toll climbed sharply. In Zaporizhzhia, a combined missile and guided-bomb strike killed six people and injured 19, regional authorities reported. Across the oblast, meanwhile, Russian forces launched 938 strikes on 58 settlements in a single day, injuring 52 residents in total. Officials also logged 341 reports of damage to homes, vehicles, and infrastructure.

In central Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, drones and artillery hit five districts more than 20 times. The strikes killed three people, among them a 15-year-old boy, and hurt five others, including a 7-year-old girl. To the northeast, an attack on Zlatopil in Kharkiv Oblast damaged civilian infrastructure and injured a resident.

Meanwhile, in Mykolaiv, drones hurt a 75-year-old woman and damaged homes and an industrial site, and officials described her condition as satisfactory. In nearby Snihurivka, six more drone strikes damaged houses, a shop, and a car, though they caused no injuries.

The strikes add to a wave of Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities this summer. The capital had already endured ballistic missiles days earlier, on the night of 8 August. That evening, explosions also echoed through Kyiv and Dnipro during a mass drone assault.

Editor's note: The story was updated with the latest reports from Mykolaiv and Sumy.

Russian attacks against Ukraine have killed at least six civilians and injured at least 25 others over the past day, regional authorities reported on July 6.

Russian forces launched four S-300 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia's Kursk Oblast and 157 Shahed drones from Russia's Shatalovo, Millerovo, and Primorsk-Akhtarsk airfields, as well as from Russian-occupied Crimea, against Ukraine overnight, according to Ukraine's Air Force.

Ukraine's air defense shot down 98 drones, while another 19 disappeared from radar without causing any damage, according to the statement. Drones that disappear from radar before reaching their targets are often decoys that Russia launches alongside real drones to overwhelm Ukraine's air defense.

In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces attacked 13 settlements, killing two people and injuring 11 others, Governor Oleg Syniehubov reported.

An 8-year-old boy was killed, while a 3-year-old boy, a 40-year-old man, and a 36-year-old woman suffered injuries in the village of Odnorobivka.

In the town of Kupiansk, a 59-year-old man was killed, while a 56-year-old man, a 57-year-old woman, and two women aged 65 were injured due to the Russian strikes.

In Kharkiv, the regional capital, a 46-year-old woman and a 2-year-old girl suffered injuries.

The casualties were also reported in the villages of Prykolotne and Shyroke, where a 66-year-old man and a 27-year-old woman were injured.

In Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces killed a person in the town of Myrnohrad, and another person was killed in the village of Andriivka, according to Governor Vadym Filashkin.

In Andriivka, two people suffered injuries. Two more people were injured in the town of Siversk, and another one in the city of Pokrovsk.

In Kherson Oblast, Russia targeted 32 settlements, including the regional center of Kherson, over the past day. As a result of the attacks, two people were killed and three others were injured, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported.

In Mykolaiv Oblast, Russian drones attacked the port infrastructure in the regional center of Mykolaiv, damaging the power grid and warehouses.

A 31-year-old woman was injured and hospitalized, while a 35-year-old man, who also suffered injuries in the attack, was treated at the scene, according to Governor Vitalii Kim.

In Sumy Oblast, a Russian FPV drone attacked the Khotyn community, hitting a car and injuring a 49-year-old man, the local military administration reported. He was hospitalized.

In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a 39-year-old woman was injured in the attack against the Nikopol district. Russia targeted the area with FPV (first-person-view) drones and artillery, according to Governor Serhii Lysak.

In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian strikes injured an 89-year-old woman in the village of Yurkivka, the local military administration reported.

In Kyiv Oblast, Russia attacked the Vyshhorod district, injuring a 35-year-old man. He suffered shrapnel wounds, the local military administration reported.

In Poltava Oblast, Russian drones struck the city of Kremenchuk, hitting an enlistment office and a neighboring house. The attack caused a fire, but no casualties were reported, according to the local military administration.

Ukraine's Emergency Service also reported that Russia had carried out double-tap attacks in the cities of Kharkiv and Kherson when rescuers arrived at the impact sites. As a result of the attacks, tanker trucks were damaged, but no rescuers were injured.

Ukraine’s army chief warns of new Russian offensives in northeast as he visits Kharkiv Oblast front

Russian troops are ramping up attacks in the sector using large numbers of troops, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Editor's note: This is a developing story and is being updated as new details emerge.

Russia launched a series of drone attacks on Kyiv Oblast overnight on June 15-16, targeting both the capital city and regional settlements, according to government officials.

In the Obukhiv district of Kyiv Oblast, a 60-year-old man was injured as a result of Russia's drone strike, reported regional governer Mykola Kalashnyk at 1:37 a.m. local time.

The injured man received medical assistance, Kalashnyk confirmed.

Civilian targets, including a private home, were also damaged in the attack. Emergency services are currently working at the scene.

Earlier in the night, explosions were also heard in Kyiv.

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko confirmed that the city's air defenses were operating and that drones were entering the city late on Sunday night, at about 11:29 p.m. local time.

Russia reports Ukrainian drone attack on drone factory in Tatarstan

The drones were shot down, but the debris fell on a plant in the town of Yelabuga, where Shahed-type attack drones are manufactured, causing a fire.

The Kyiv IndependentDominic Culverwell