Lithuania's military intelligence warned that Russia is considering using captured Ukrainian drones for false flag attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region, LRT reported. Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas confirmed the assessment and called the scenario "probably the most realistic" form of Russian provocation against the region. Lithuania has reinforced security at key infrastructure sites and deployed military forces since June.

Russia's false flag playbook with captured drone parts

Moscow could reassemble crashed and intercepted Ukrainian drone wreckage into functioning devices and launch them at targets in the Baltic states, Kaunas told reporters on 6 August. The goal: create confusion about who launched the strike and avoid accountability for hitting NATO territory.

"We have data that Russia is considering conducting unconventional kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region," Kaunas said. "It is likely that Russia could use Ukrainian-made drones for this purpose."

The Baltic region. Map: Euromaidan Press

The mechanism exploits a byproduct of Ukraine's drone war against Russia. As Ukrainian long-range drones hit oil infrastructure and military targets deep inside Russia, some are intercepted or crash. Russia collects the wreckage. 

"Russia possesses some of those parts and drone fragments and is capable of assembling them into a functioning device," Kaunas said. "The theoretical possibility that such drones could be used in a false flag operation exists."

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Kaunas emphasized no decision to launch such an operation had been detected. 

"We are talking about a false flag operation in which a fake Ukrainian drone could be used. At this point, that is probably the most realistic scenario."

The false flag warning follows a pattern of Ukrainian drones entering Baltic airspace after being diverted by Russian electronic warfare. NATO fighter jets shot down such drones over Latvia and Estonia this spring, and Lithuania shut Vilnius airport after detecting a drone crossing from Belarus.

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Multiple NATO allies see the same intelligence

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda had earlier raised concerns about possible conventional and sabotage strikes targeting the country's transport and energy networks. Kaunas echoed that message and pointed to a broader pattern across the alliance's eastern flank.

"Other NATO countries have repeatedly made it very clear that they see it, hear it, know about it, and have warned Russia not to do it," Kaunas said. He did not identify specific targets or a timeline for any potential attack.

Russia claimed the Baltic states open air corridors for Ukrainian drone strikes—without producing evidence. Russia also threatened NATO member Latvia with retaliation over the accusations. Nausėda publicly rejected Moscow's claims.

NATO upgraded its Baltic Air Policing rules of engagement in July, giving fighter jets authority to shoot down objects that pose a threat. Russia's military aircraft probed NATO's eastern flank so aggressively in July that scrambles jumped more than 250%.

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Latvia will open military mobilization centers in four cities and build anti-tank barriers in its capital this week as the Baltic NATO member rehearses wartime call-up procedures, Latvian Public Media (LSM) reported. The drills come as multiple Western intelligence agencies have warned that Russia may test NATO's eastern flank with a limited military provocation within years.

Latvia rehearses crisis conscription

On 8 August, Latvia's National Armed Forces (NBS) will deploy mobilization centers in Rīga, Kuldīga, Valmiera, and Alūksne. The purpose is to train and improve procedures for calling up and conscripting Latvian citizens in a crisis. Citizens who applied for voluntary reserve training will report to the centers and travel to the Infantry School in Alūksne for a three-week military course.

The course, running from 8 to 29 August, will train 114 reservists in weapons handling, combat shooting, communications, topography, terrain orientation, field combat, and advanced first aid. After completing the program, reservists will take the soldier's oath, receive a reserve soldier's certificate and a mobilization order. Reserve soldiers must refresh their skills every four years.

Both women and men — Latvian citizens aged 18 to 60 with at least primary education, intermediate Latvian, no criminal record, and good health — can apply.

Today, on 7 August, a separate exercise in the capital will test Riga's ability to erect anti-mobility engineering structures — physical obstacles designed to slow enemy forces in urban environments. 

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Defense preparations accelerate amid Russian threats

The drills are the latest in a series of concrete defense steps Latvia has taken as the threat from Russia grows. 

Latvia's military chief warned in June that Russia could exploit its drone advantage to attack the Baltics by the end of 2028. In July, Latvia hardened security at its hydroelectric dam and gas storage facility after intelligence flagged specific Russian threats, and its prime minister asked NATO for more troops and air defense. 

Latvia completed a 280-km border fence in late 2025.

Polish prosecutors have identified the cruise missile that crashed in eastern Poland during Russia's mass overnight attack on Ukraine yesterday, according to Ukrinform. Investigators traced the weapon to a recent Russian production run and dated its manufacture, with a Ukrainian expert helping confirm the find. 

Prosecutors trace the missile to a Moscow-area plant

Marcin Kozak, spokesman for the District Prosecutor's Office in Lublin, spoke at a media briefing on Friday, a Ukrinform correspondent reported on 31 July. He said the fallen weapon was a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile. Investigators reached that conclusion after examining the impact site in Lublin Voivodeship and the fragments recovered there. The same work let them date the weapon's manufacture and trace where in Russia it was built.

"Preliminary work examining the site and the traces found — that is, elements of the aerial object — allows us to state unequivocally what object we are dealing with," Kozak said. "This is a Kh-101 missile, manufactured in the second quarter of 2026 at one of the enterprises in Moscow Oblast."

That places the weapon's origin at a plant in the Moscow area, the region ringing the Russian capital. A Ukrainian expert arrived in Poland yesterday evening and joined the identification.

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How the missile crossed into Poland

Yesterday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed that a Kh-101 had crossed into Polish airspace during the overnight barrage. It came down about 50 kilometers from Lublin, leaving behind a crater where its warhead exploded. Poland put its air defenses on alert and scrambled military aircraft as Russia's missiles neared the border. Air raid sirens sounded in Lublin around 03:50 local time, and crews later found the crater and scattered debris around 95 km into Poland.

The Russian missile either strayed into Poland or was deliberately directed there during Russia's mass attack on Ukraine overnight on 30 July. Russia sent missiles and drones across the country, and several areas reported hits and fires. Its strikes hit Lviv, Kyiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, where the barrage also killed civilians in central Ukraine.

After the missile fell, two disinformation campaigns spread through Poland's information space, one aimed at Ukraine and the other at the Polish government.

Tusk also signaled that Warsaw would soon weigh sending Ukraine more missiles for its Patriot air defense systems.

NATO plans to enhance its missile defense systems on its eastern flank in response to a growing threat from Russia, Bloomberg reported on June 12, citing its undisclosed sources.

For the first time, member states of NATO are reportedly considering combining the alliance's ballistic missile shield with other integrated missile defense assets. The talks are taking place behind closed doors and involve sensitive deliberations, Bloomberg reported, citing its sources.

Moscow has long opposed NATO's missile defense infrastructure, particularly the U.S.-built interceptors deployed in Poland and Romania, states neighboring Ukraine. The alliance has previously said those systems are intended to counter potential long-range threats from Iran, not Russia.

The so-called "NATO expansion to the east" is one of the key narratives used by Russian propaganda to justify its large-scale war against Ukraine.

The proposed integration of ballistic missile defense with NATO's broader air and missile defense network would address threats from any direction in the future. This shift suggests the effort would increasingly be focused on deterring Russian capabilities, according to Bloomberg's sources.

The move comes as NATO ramps up its defense posture more than three years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The alliance recently agreed on the most ambitious new weapons targets since the Cold War.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called on alliance members to make a "quantum leap" in defense investment in response to the enduring threat from Russia. Speaking at Chatham House in London, Rutte urged allies to increase air and missile defense by 400%.

Talks on integrating the systems may wrap up ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague on June 24–25, but could continue afterward, the sources said. Ukraine is invited to attend the summit. It remains unclear whether the initiative will still officially cite Iran as a threat or move fully toward addressing Russia.

The effort is part of a broader strategy to reinforce NATO's eastern flank, but some officials have raised concerns about how it might affect peace efforts in Ukraine and whether the United States will fully support the integration, Bloomberg reported.

Previously, U.S. President Donald Trump echoed Russian claims that Kyiv provoked the invasion by pursuing its NATO ambitions.

Earlier, Bloomberg reported that NATO is deploying a new satellite surveillance system aimed at monitoring military activity in Ukraine and along the alliance's eastern borders. The system, known as Smart Indication and Warning Broad Area Detection (SINBAD), will use AI-powered analysis to scan large areas and detect potential threats with unprecedented frequency.

NATO expands satellite surveillance to monitor Ukraine, eastern flank

The initiative, named Smart Indication and Warning Broad Area Detection (SINBAD), will allow NATO to scan vast territories with unprecedented frequency, using AI-powered analysis to detect changes and alert allies to potential threats.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir