Only three out of eight Russian Iskander-K cruise missiles launched at Ukraine on the night of 31 July were shot down. This raised questions about why Ukraine’s air defense, usually effective against Kalibr and Kh-101 missiles, failed to destroy most of them, Defense Express reports.

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The key reason is the element of surprise, say the military experts from Defense Express.

“Today’s launches of ‘Iskander-K’ were carried out from Russia’s Kursk Oblasy, practically right at the border, so there was very little time to react and deploy countermeasures,” the analysis states.

The land-based Iskander launchers are harder to detect than ships launching Kalibr missiles or bombers carrying Kh-101s, since those require more flight time and are detected by intelligence before launch.

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What is known about these missiles? 

Iskander-K is a general term for cruise missiles launched from the Iskander tactical missile system. These include the 9M728 (R-500) with a range up to 500 km and the 9M729 with a range up to 1,500 km. Both have a 480 kg warhead and fly at speeds up to 900 km/h.

This year, Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate announced Russia’s approximate missile production rates. Currently, Russia can produce about 300 cruise missiles per month, including 20-30 Iskander-K. 

Europe can’t keep up with Russia in producing anti-missiles for Ukraine. Therefore, the time has come to shift from defense to counterattacks, Defense Express reports.

Europe’s defense lags behind

Russia’s military industry is currently capable of producing up to 1,020 ballistic missiles annually, including Iskander and Kinzhal types. European countries only have the capacity to intercept around 300 such missiles per year. These figures come from researcher Fabian Hoffmann, cited by the German outlet Hartpunkt. This imbalance means European industry is being outpaced by Russia, which continues to ramp up missile production. According to Ukraine’s military intelligence, Russia increased its Iskander production by 15–40% in the first half of 2025 alone. Europe is failing to match that surge with equivalent growth in its missile interception capabilities.

From defense to counterstrikes

As Defense Express explains, the traditional “anti-access/area denial” approach, which envisions saturating Ukraine with air defense systems, doesn’t work when the adversary has a numerical advantage. This method focuses on preventing missiles from entering Ukrainian airspace. In contrast, a more “offensive” strategy targets the factories, workshops, and logistics hubs where those missiles are made. It’s about eliminating the source of the threat, not just shielding against its consequences. And that, analysts argue, is exactly what Ukraine needs now. This shift in the support paradigm Europe must adopt to help Ukraine repel Russian strikes is timely and necessary.

“But ultimately it depends on what strike capabilities European partners are actually willing to supply, a particularly pressing issue amid speculation about Germany’s secret strike option, if not Taurus,” the experts write.

What Europe might provide

On 24 July, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Kyiv forces would receive secret weapons to “influence” Russia’s territory. Meanwhile, the deliveries of Taurus long-range missiles were ruled out. Wadephul emphasized that European partners were working intensively on the weapons delivery for Ukraine. The issue was not about finances but about the defense industry’s production capacity. In July, Germany announced it would deliver five Patriot systems to Ukraine, which are the only systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed the agreement with his US counterpart Pete Hegseth. Berlin is also sending over 200,000 shells for its Gepard anti-drone systems and financing the production of long-range Ukrainian drones for deep strikes inside Russia.

Russia’s drone strike tactics now pierce Ukrainian defenses at triple the previous rate, FT reports. With new swarming methods and high-altitude maneuvers, Russia’s Shahed drones are overwhelming Ukraine’s air defenses across key cities.

Drone swarms adapt to bypass Ukraine’s defenses

According to official Ukrainian air force data cited by FT on 21 July, the proportion of Shahed drones hitting targets rose from 5% to 15% between January–March and April–June. This sharp rise reflects a shift in Russia’s drone strike tactics—not a decline in Ukraine’s capabilities.

Moscow has retooled its drone operations, modifying Iranian-designed Shaheds—now manufactured in Russia under the Geran designation—to fly faster and at higher altitudes. These adaptations make them harder to intercept by truck-mounted machine guns and standard mobile fire units typically used by Ukrainian forces.

Yasir Atalan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told FT the improvement “is not [because] the Ukraine air defence is getting worse,” but due to Russia’s new swarming methods and drones flying “in higher altitude, [which] makes them more effective.”

Record-breaking drone and missile assaults

Ukraine’s Air Force reported yesterday that Russia launched 426 Shahed-type attack drones in a single wave. On 9 July, Russian forces fired a record 728 units—combining drones, decoys, and cruise and ballistic missiles—in a coordinated saturation strike.

FT notes that by overwhelming the defense layers with sheer volume, Russia raises the strike success rate. According to Atalan, the increased scale of launches “saturates the defense systems which increases the hit rate.”

Domestic production fuels Russia’s drone blitz

Russia’s ability to domestically produce Shaheds in large numbers has given it a logistical edge. The Geran-3 variant—equipped with a turbo engine and capable of diving at speeds up to 800km/h—has reportedly been used against Kyiv in recent weeks, FT reports.

Ukraine’s defenses include jamming drone GPS guidance systems using electronic warfare, as well as employing machine guns and advanced anti-aircraft systems like Germany’s Oerlikon Skynex. Despite this, the average hit rate for drones remains around 15%, FT says.

Ukraine ramps up interceptor drone efforts

In response, Ukraine has increased efforts to counter the Shahed threat with domestically developed interceptor drones. On 10 July, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces were already “shooting down dozens of Shaheds” in each wave using these homegrown interceptors.

Earlier this month, Zelenskyy announced a partnership with Eric Schmidt, CEO of the US-based Swift Beat, to co-produce “hundreds of thousands” of drones for Ukraine’s defense, including those designed to intercept enemy drones.

Last week, Zelenskyy emphasized the success of these new systems, noting they “are achieving good results” and that “hundreds of Russian-Iranian Shaheds” had been destroyed in a single week.

 

Russian Shaheds now carry napalm and break through Ukrainian electronic warfare systems. Moscow continues to upgrade its Shahed attack drones, enhancing their warheads, engines, and protection, says Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, a military expert, in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

 

“Recently, we discovered a fluid in a Shahed’s warhead that resembled napalm. It not only spreads but keeps burning even in sand. This is terrorism, when drones attack residential areas with incendiary mixtures that cannot be extinguished,” explains Beskrestnov.

According to him, such weapons are absolutely inappropriate for warfare in large cities. Russia is also using at least 4–5 different types of warheads on Shahed drones, expanding their operational roles, from striking industrial targets to deliberate terror against civilians.

Flash reports that Russian engineers have upgraded Shahed engines, allowing them to reach speeds of up to 220 km/h in favorable weather conditions. However, the expert notes that this speed increase is not a decisive advantage: “Globally, whether it’s 180 or 200 km/h. It doesn’t change much.”

The most serious threat now comes from the improved Shahed defense systems against Ukrainian electronic warfare.

“We are increasingly seeing the same target being hit repeatedly. This indicates electronic warfare’s failure to disrupt navigation,” says Beskrestnov.

According to him, Chinese reinforced antennas have been found among the drone wreckage, successfully breaking through Ukrainian electronic warfare defenses.

“Our electronic warfare systems simply aren’t designed to handle such a number of elements. That’s why urgent modernization is needed,” the expert emphasizes.

Beskrestnov separately emphasized that electronic warfare systems do not physically destroy drones but only help protect targets and give air defense systems time to strike them.

Germany will deliver Patriot missiles to Ukraine “very shortly,” following US President Donald Trump’s NATO agreement to increase weapons aid. The delivery, part of a Europe-funded supply plan, could make the system operational in Ukraine within weeks, according to Germany’s leader.

Germany finalizing Patriot missile transfer with NATO

According to Politico, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed during a 17 July press conference in the UK that Ukraine will receive Patriot air-defense systems “very shortly, very soon.” He stressed that Kyiv urgently needs deep strike capability and that additional support is on the way. According to Merz, defense ministers are now finalizing logistics to fulfill the delivery.

Politico reports that the announcement followed Trump’s new NATO deal earlier this week. The plan allows European countries to send weapons to Ukraine now and buy replacements from the US.

NATO and Germany already preparing transfer

Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s Allied Air Command leader, said on 17 July that preparations for the Patriot transfer were already under way.

Trump stated on 14 July that part of the Patriot system would arrive “within days,” though others have raised questions about the exact timeline. Merz later clarified that the capability could be active in Ukraine within weeks.

 

US President Donald Trump promised Patriot missile systems for Ukraine—but it is Europe that must now provide them, Reuters reports. NATO allies are scrambling to decide who will donate the weapons and how soon they can be delivered.

Allies caught off guard by Trump’s Patriot deal

Trump announced on 14 July that some Patriot missile systems for Ukraine should arrive “within days.” But while Kyiv prepares to receive them, European governments are facing unexpected pressure to give up their own systems, Reuters says. Meanwhile, Trump claimed that the first Patriots allegedly already were “on the way” to Ukraine.

During a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump claimed that Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, and Canada had agreed to participate. However, high-ranking officials in at least two of those countries told Reuters they only learned of the plan when Trump made it public.

“It is my clear sense that nobody has been briefed about the exact details in advance,” one European ambassador said.

NATO to coordinate shipments under US-led framework

A NATO official said the alliance will oversee deliveries through its Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine mission in Germany. The official listed Germany, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Finland as committed to the effort. But the exact numbers and timeline remain under discussion.

Europe pays for Trump’s pledge

While Trump takes credit for the deal, European leaders are voicing frustration.

“If we pay for these weapons, it’s our support,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. “If you promise to give the weapons, but say somebody else is going to pay for it, it’s not really given by you, is it?”

Germany’s defense minister said no Patriot system would arrive in Kyiv before the summer ends. Other countries—including Greece and Spain—have previously refused to part with their Patriots, calling them essential for national defense.

Logistics unclear

A US official said the Trump administration is now reviewing NATO inventories to identify potential trades. In some cases, allies might give up Patriots in exchange for earlier deliveries of other weapons or cancel pending orders under the Foreign Military Sales program.