Russian forces had been preparing strikes on Poland and Lithuania for months, using 4G modems with Polish and Lithuanian SIM cards to test drone connectivity as early as June, according to the Ukrainian defense news outlet Defense Express.

SIM cards from Poland and Lithuania found in downed drones

In early July, Polish investigators revealed that wreckage from Russian drones shot down in Ukraine contained 4G modems equipped with SIM cards from Polish mobile operators, as reported by Polish journalist Marek Budzisz. Later, a SIM card from a Lithuanian operator was also discovered in another drone.

Analysts say this detail directly points to Russia’s preparation for drone incursions into NATO airspace, as Moscow tested mobile network connections in advance. The findings were reported to partners in Poland and Lithuania. Still, the revelations triggered little reaction domestically — even as Russian drones began entering Polish airspace regularly during the summer.

“Whether the Russian drones that attacked Poland today had such capabilities remains unknown. At the same time, the assumption that one of the tasks of this Russian attack was precisely reconnaissance of Poland’s air defense system is quite justified,” Defense Express wrote, noting that the Russia-Belarus military drills Zapad 2025 kick off today.

Nighttime drone raids over Poland

During Russia’s air attacks against Ukraine, Moscow’s drones violated the Polish airspace on multiple occasions. For example, on 7 September, a Russian drone bearing with “Cyrillic inscriptions” crashed near the Terespol border crossing with Belarus, according to Polish media. Poland and NATO forces, however, refused to shoot down such drones up until 10 September.

And in the early hours of 10 September, Russian drones once again violated Polish airspace. The incident prompted Polish aviation to scramble and temporarily shut down airports in Warsaw, Lublin, and Rzeszów amid fears of a wider attack. NATO fighter jets shot down at least four of reportedly 19 drones that crossed into Poland.

Ukraine’s Air Force said on 10 September that Russia launched 415 drones and 43 missiles, while the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stated that at least eight Shahed explosive drones were deliberately “aimed toward Poland,” calling the incident “a perilous precedent for Europe” and urging a united response from Western partners.

Despite clear evidence of intent, NATO has so far avoided classifying the violation as an act of aggression.

NATO is not treating Russia’s deliberate drone incursion into Polish territory as an attack, a NATO source told Reuters. This unprecedented revelation comes after a large overnight operation involving both Polish and NATO aircraft to intercept incoming Russian drones.

Ukraine’s Air Force reported that Russia launched 415 drones and 43 missiles in total during the overnight assault. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says at least eight Shahed explosive drones were “aimed toward Poland.” Calling it “an extremely dangerous precedent for Europe,” he urged a strong, united response from Ukraine’s partners in Europe and the United States.

Ukrainian airspace monitoring channels reported that some of the Russian drones that initially entered Poland later returned to Ukraine.

NATO downplays Russia’s deliberate drone strike on Poland

Despite clear indications of intent, NATO is not treating the airspace violation as an act of aggression, a source within the Alliance told Reuters. The source added that initial indications suggested an intentional incursion of six to ten Russian drones overnight on 10 September. NATO radars tracked the drones, and a coordinated operation involving Polish F-16s, Dutch F-35s, Italian AWACS surveillance planes, and mid-air refueling aircraft was launched.

“It was the first time NATO aircraft have engaged potential threats in allied airspace,” the source said.

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Poland shoots down Russian drones, closes 4 airports in “unprecedented” border violation

European leaders condemn Russia and express solidarity with Poland

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the drone strikes as “a reckless and unprecedented violation of Poland and Europe’s airspace.” Speaking to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, she declared full European solidarity with Poland and announced a new Qualitative Military Edge program to boost Ukrainian defense capabilities.

French President Emmanuel Macron labeled the airspace breach “simply unacceptable.” In a post on X, he promised to raise the issue with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, stating, “We will not compromise on the security of the Allies.”

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called Russia’s drone attack “extremely reckless” and said it highlighted “Putin’s blatant disregard for peace.” He confirmed direct communication with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and thanked NATO and Polish forces for their swift response.

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said that early indications suggested the drone entries into Polish territory were intentional.

Poland details the scale of airspace violation and defensive actions

Prime Minister Donald Tusk said 19 drones entered Polish airspace overnight, with many of those flying in from Belarus. According to Tusk, four were probably shot down, with the last interception occurring at 6:45 a.m. Poland’s military command stated that more than 10 drones had been tracked and that those posing a threat were neutralized.

The military described the repeated violations as “an act of aggression.” Airports in Warsaw, Lublin, and two other cities were closed during the threat. Polish authorities urged residents in Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, and Lublin regions to remain indoors. NATO air command and Dutch F-35s provided assistance throughout the operation.

Czechia and Lithuania express alarm, call out Russian provocation

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said the incident was “a test of the defense capabilities of NATO countries.” He called it deliberate and said Putin’s regime “systematically probes how far it can go.” Fiala reaffirmed Czech solidarity with Poland and warned against voices downplaying Russia’s aggression.

Lithuanian foreign minister Kestutis Budrys, however, told Reuters that there was no confirmed evidence yet that the drone strike was intentional. However, he stressed that Russia remains responsible for keeping its drones out of NATO territory.

Belarus and Moscow close ranks and deny responsibility

Russia and Belarus, longtime anti-Ukrainian allies, dismissed the accusations. Russia’s chargé d’affaires in Poland, Andrey Ordash, was summoned by the Polish foreign ministry. He told Russia’s RIA state news agency, “We see the accusations as groundless,” claiming Poland had presented no evidence linking the Russian drones to Russia.

Belarusian Chief of the General Staff Major General Pavel Muraveiko attempted to shift blame for Russia’s deliberate attack on Poland toward Ukraine. He claimed Belarus had allegedly shot down drones that had strayed into its airspace due to Ukrainian electronic interference. Without specifying their origin, he claimed that both Poland and Lithuania had been warned about the drones’ approach.

Lithuania has signed a memorandum with American defense firm Northrop Grumman and Norwegian Nammo to secure the production of ammunition amid Russia's war against Ukraine, the Lithuanian Defense Ministry announced on June 24.

"By strengthening our national defense industry, we are investing in both technological capabilities and Lithuania’s resilience to crises. This Memorandum of Understanding will allow us to better equip our armed forces and help Lithuania become an important link in international supply chains," Lithuanian Vice Minister of National Defense Loreta Maskalioviene said.

"The investment and expertise of our allies... will significantly contribute to strengthening of the national defense industry and security not only in Lithuania, but also in the entire region, including Ukraine. The development of the defense industry and investment in production must come without delay," Lithuanian Finance Minister Rimantas Sadzius said.

Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine has sparked concern in Europe that Russia could attack NATO's eastern flank, including Poland, the Baltic countries, and Finland.

Ukrainian intelligence has evidence that Russia is preparing new military operations in Europe, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 22.

The partnership will be implemented at the state-owned Giraite Armament Factory, the announcement said, adding that the factory is set to be integrated into Northrop Grumman’s international supply chains.

Northrop Grumman will supply ammunition produced in the Lithuanian defense factory to the international market.

Nammo, as a subcontractor, will provide Northrop Grumman with the 35 mm ammunition production technology.

"It will enhance national strategic autonomy in defense and deepen partnerships with NATO allies, the United States, and Norway. The planned production of ammunition is of critical importance to the Lithuanian Armed Forces, our allies, and Ukraine," Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene said.

The memorandum will initiate negotiations for the production of medium caliber ammunition, ranging in size from 20-50 mm.

The Giraite Armament Factory will be provided with 35 mm ammunition production technology from the two defense firms, the announcement said.

Sakaliene noted that the new partnership will ensure an uninterrupted supply of ammunition to Lithuania's Armed Forces.

NATO is holding a summit in The Hague from June 24-25 with world leaders, including Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump present.

The White House has confirmed that Trump and Zelensky will hold a meeting at the NATO summit.

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An invitation for Ukraine to become a member of NATO "is not on the agenda" of the upcoming summit in The Hague, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said in an interview with the Baltic News Service published on June 18.

"This issue is certainly not on the NATO agenda and nobody has formulated an expectation that there will be an invitation in The Hague, nor have we heard that from the Ukrainians themselves," Budrys said in comments quoted by the LRT broadcaster.

"There is no such expectation that there will be breakthrough decisions, neither before the Washington summit nor now before the Hague summit – it is not on the agenda."

The comments, coming less than a week before the summit, hint at a shifting rhetoric within the alliance regarding Ukraine's potential membership after U.S. President Donald Trump took office.

The new Trump administration has spoken out against Kyiv's accession, and the U.S. president even echoed the false Russian narratives that its efforts to join NATO helped instigate Russia's full-scale invasion.

Unlike during the previous summits, the final communique may reportedly completely omit the topic of Ukraine's membership, as NATO members seek to avoid a conflict with Trump. The gathering was also preceded by rumors that Ukraine may not be invited due to U.S. opposition, but the invitation was extended in the end.

In spite of these tensions, Budrys said that the summit should keep its focus on Ukraine, stressing that the war-torn country is part of the Euro-Atlantic security space.

Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022, months after the outbreak of the full-scale Russian invasion. The alliance has signaled support for Kyiv's accession efforts in previous years, even declaring at the Washington summit in 2024 that Ukraine's path to membership is "irreversible" — but stopping short of a formal invite.

Kyiv's swift entry seems increasingly unlikely amid opposition from the U.S. and several other members, even though NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently reaffirmed that a political commitment to Ukraine's membership stands. Ukraine would need support from all 32 members to join.

It remains uncertain whether The Hague summit will lead to any breakthroughs regarding Ukraine. Following signals that U.S. President Donald Trump may not attend the event, the Guardian reported that President Volodymyr Zelensky may skip the summit as well.

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Russia is exploiting automatic medical exemptions in EU sanctions regulations to import dual-use goods for its military, Lithuania's Deputy Foreign Minister Gabija Grigaite-Daugirde told Bloomberg on June 12.

According to Grigaite-Daugirde, Lithuanian customs authorities blocked 28,854 goods in 2024 that were allegedly destined for Russia and Belarus "under the guise of medical exemption."

Many of the flagged shipments contained parts for motor vehicles, refrigerators, copiers, and microelectronics — all of which can have military applications.

"We have witnessed parts for motor vehicles, refrigerators, copying machines, and other types of microelectronics being exported directly to Russia, claiming that these are bound for medical use," she said.

Under current EU rules, medical exemptions are automatically granted, leaving customs authorities to investigate the shipments retroactively. Lithuania has called for reforms allowing exporters to apply for exemptions before shipments are approved.

"Leaving automatic exemptions from sanctions for medical goods is like closing a door but leaving a keyhole," Grigaite-Daugirde said. "Russia definitely finds a way to pass."

As Moscow shifts to a wartime economy and seeks Western-made technology for its arms production, its efforts to circumvent sanctions have grown "desperate," she added.

Lithuania, a key EU and NATO member bordering both Belarus and Russia's heavily militarized Kaliningrad exclave, has taken a hardline stance on enforcement and regularly pushes for tougher sanctions within the bloc.

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