Russia lost almost 300 km² of Ukrainian territory on net between March and September 2026, and it likely gained no ground in September despite its heaviest casualties of the year, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed. Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi accounts for much of the swing. The think tank notes that Ukraine's secrecy around such counterattacks makes exact monthly tallies hard.

Russia has pressed attacks along the entire front through 2026, accepting mass casualties for marginal ground, and its battlefield year has already been called its worst since 2023. Its losses have been outpacing its recruitment for months.

Russia came out behind in September

Russian forces seized 175.54 km² in September but lost 256.35 km², a net loss of 80.81 km², or minus 2.69 km² a day, ISW calculated. The balance stayed negative when Russian infiltrations into areas Russia does not control are counted: Russia seized or infiltrated 143.2 km² but lost 318.38 km², a net loss of 175.18 km².

The September figures include at least 147 km² near Lyman that Ukraine liberated over earlier months, but that ISW recorded only once details of Operation Vivaldi emerged in September. The operation already disrupted Russia's plan to encircle the Fortress Belt cities from the Lyman and Dobropillia directions.

Explore further

Ukraine’s Vivaldi counteroffensive disrupts Russia’s plan to encircle Donetsk Fortress Belt – ISW

Almost 300 km² lost since March

Russia's rate of seizing territory dropped sharply in March 2026 and has stayed low, or even negative, since, ISW found. After controlling for the gains Ukraine made during Vivaldi, Russia lost control of 293.59 km² net across the front since March. Counting infiltrations, it gained a presence in only 174.44 km² over the same period.

ISW's monthly chart shows net Russian losses of 116.01 km² in April and 281.1 km² in May, modest gains in June, July, and August, and a net loss again in September. Oleksandr Syrskyi, then Ukraine's commander-in-chief, reported in June that Ukrainian forces had recaptured 100 km² in May.

More than 46,000 casualties for no ground

Russian forces suffered 46,230 casualties in September, Ukraine's General Staff reported. It is the third straight month above 40,000 and the highest monthly toll of 2026, by Kyiv's count. Monthly Russian casualties have climbed from 32,980 in April to 42,860 in July and 42,020 in August, ISW's chart shows.

Russia keeps suffering heavy personnel losses while making extremely limited or even net-negative territorial gains, ISW said, and its current force generation system still recruits fewer soldiers than it needs to replace them.

Explore further

Russia’s mass drone attacks on Ukraine have a goal—likely Ukraine’s capitulation by spring 2027, ISW says

Ukraine's effective operational security around Vivaldi, likely to continue in future counterattacks, will make meaningful month-to-month assessments of Russian gains and losses hard, the think tank added.

Drones attacked Russia's Volgograd and Samara oblasts overnight on 2 October, sparking fires near an oil refinery, a chemical plant, and likely a major oil-transport hub, Ukrainian and Russian monitoring channels reported. Regional officials acknowledged the attack but not the fires, and the extent of any damage remains unconfirmed.

Explosions and a glow over Volgograd's refinery district

Explosions sounded for a long time in Volgograd itself and around the refinery's industrial zone, Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ wrote.

Residents reported drones flying over and blasts "in all districts of the city," and complained that no air raid alert sounded, Russian news Telegram channel Astra reported. Its OSINT analysis of eyewitness footage placed the glow near the Lukoil refinery and the neighboring Kaustik chemical plant, though the available videos do not show which facility caught fire.

Volgograd Oblast Governor Andrei Bocharov claimed a "massive drone attack" on the region's industrial infrastructure. He mentioned a fire in an apartment building and one person hospitalized, but no fires at plants.

Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka is one of Russia's largest refineries. It processes 14.8–15.7 million tons of crude a year, about 5% of Russia's refining, and makes gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, and bitumen, according to Astra.

Explore further

Fifth drone-related NORSI shutdown in under five months leaves all major Lukoil refineries offline

Drones have hit the plant repeatedly. In May 2025, strikes damaged its ELOU-AVT-1 and ELOU-AVT-6 primary processing units. A 29 May 2026 strike halted production at the plant, about 500 km east of the war zone, Ukraine's General Staff said. On 31 July, drones set the refinery ablaze again, and Astra reported the AVT-1 and AVT-6 units stopped.

Kaustik sits in Volgograd's southern Krasnoarmeysky district. It is one of the region's leading plants and makes basic chemicals with dual civilian and military use, Astra wrote. The outlet called that output critical to Russia's military industry. The plant runs chlor-alkali production built on salt electrolysis. It makes hydrochloric acid, plastics, synthetic resins, and industrial gases, according to OSINT-Varta. Such products can serve military industry too, including polymer parts and protective coatings for hardware, Militarnyi noted.

Europe's largest tank farm likely on fire near Samara

Explosions also rocked Samara, with an especially strong one around 06:30, Astra reported. Its OSINT expert linked reader photos to a fire at the Samara linear production dispatch station in the settlement of Prosvet.

Ukrainian monitoring channel Supernova+ shared video of thick black smoke on the horizon and reported a fire at the station. Exilenova+ reported explosions in Samara followed by a fire.

The station belongs to Transneft, Russia's state pipeline operator. It covers more than 216 hectares and holds 71 tanks with a combined capacity of over 1.6 million m³ of crude. Astra called it Europe's largest tank farm.

Four trunk pipelines converge there, carrying oil from Western Siberia, Tatarstan, Orenburg Oblast, and Kazakhstan. The station blends high- and low-sulfur crude into Urals, Russia's flagship export grade, according to Militarnyi.

Samara authorities did not comment on the fire. Mayor Ivan Noskov stated only that ground public transport was suspended. Samara Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev did not report an attack at all.

The station has been hit before. Operators of the 14th Regiment of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck it again overnight on 23 September 2025. On 21 April 2026, drones of the Security Service of Ukraine's Alfa special operations center hit it, reportedly damaging five crude tanks of about 20,000 m³ each.

Explore further

Ukraine shut down this Samara refinery in June—now its drones are back, and both distillation units are burning again

Ukraine's long-range drones have already pushed Russia's fuel shortages into Central Asia, and Washington has pressed Kyiv to stop, so every hit on processing or export logistics tests how long oil can fund Moscow's war.

Ukraine may soon receive a multimillion package of 20-mm rounds for its F-16 fighter jets, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told journalists, Hromadske reported. He called the ammunition critical for shooting down Russia's jet-powered drones and said several partners have already begun transferring it. He expects the larger package after an upcoming high-level visit.

Russia now strikes Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities daily, increasingly with jet-powered drones that outrun the cheap interceptors built for slower Shaheds. Fighter jets are among the tools Ukraine uses against them, while its overall interception rate for jet drones still trails its rate against propeller drones.

"Critically important" ammunition

Sybiha said Ukraine has yet to build up its capability to repel jet drones.

"Given that we have not yet built up the capability to repel jet drones, and given the preparations for new strikes, it was critically important to help our military shoot down these drones. Apart from air defense systems, which are too expensive to use constantly against drones, the most effective tools right now are F-16 fighter jets," Sybiha said.

He thanked Spain, Belgium, and Poland, which have begun the process of transferring the ammunition, and said that thanks to them Ukraine will "very soon" have the rounds it needs.

Explore further

Belgium will send three F-16 fighter jets, but maintenance delays may keep Ukraine from using them

A "very serious visit" ahead

Sybiha linked the larger package to a visit he did not name.

"We will soon have one very serious visit. We think that one of the decisions following this visit will be a multimillion package of this ammunition for Ukraine," he said.

Talks on buying the rounds from private manufacturers are also underway, he added.

Ukraine has already received urgent batches of F-16 ammunition from Belgium, Spain, and other partners, and Belgium plans to send three more F-16s by the end of 2026 under an accelerated procedure. The jets' air-to-air missiles and cannon rounds are imported and not always in stock.

Explore further

Combat shows speed alone can’t catch Russia’s jet-powered drones, despite eight Ukrainian makers’ assurances. So why can’t they stop them?

Another night of Russian strikes

Overnight on 2 October, Russia launched 108 drones at Ukraine, 47 of them jet-powered, and air defenses downed 88 of them. In Kyiv, a Russian strike on a 25-story residential building in the Darnytskyi district killed one person and injured two. Russia also targeted the Southern Bridge again, after striking it three times the previous day, and the city restricted public transport across several bridges.

In Kharkiv Oblast, a Russian FPV drone hit a car in the Solonytsivka hromada on the afternoon of 1 October, injuring a man and a boy. A Russian strike damaged a civilian enterprise in Rivne Oblast and started a fire that forced an evacuation of nearby homes, regional head Oleksandr Koval said, and drones attacked Cherkasy Oblast.

In neighboring Romania, an object believed to be a drone crashed near the village of Plauru in Tulcea County during the attack, starting a fire that caused no casualties, Romania's Defense Ministry said.