For years, Ukraine’s air defenses blunted Russia’s attempts to terrorize its cities from the sky. Now, after four years of adaptation, Moscow is fielding faster drones, massing ballistic missiles, and finding new ways to overwhelm a Ukrainian air-defense network running short of the interceptors needed to stop them.

Russia’s aerial campaign is becoming harder to contain just as its attacks are killing more Ukrainian civilians. July recorded at least 437 civilian deaths, the highest monthly toll since the early months of the full-scale invasion, with UN monitors pointing to Russian missile and drone attacks as a key factor.

That shift is visible most clearly in Russia’s rapidly expanding use of jet-powered Geran drones. These drones can exceed 400 km/h, making them significantly harder to intercept than the slower, propeller-driven Shaheds Ukraine has spent years learning to counter. Russia reportedly launched as many as 2,850 jet-powered drones in August alone.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Russia’s escalation with the new drones is becoming “increasingly terrorist” and called for urgent efforts to develop defenses against them.

While Ukraine’s Western partners have taken steps to strengthen its air defenses, Russia has spent the same period adapting and expanding its ability to attack from the air. The gap is becoming increasingly visible in the skies over Ukrainian cities.

Ukrainian civilians are already paying the price

Russia has increasingly turned its ability to strike deep inside Ukraine into a weapon against civilian life itself: hitting residential areas, fuel stations, railways, energy infrastructure and other sites across cities far from the front.

Since late August, Kyiv has faced near-continuous Russian drone attacks, with Russia increasingly sending waves of drones against the capital throughout the day and night. The shift has made air-raid alerts, explosions and disruptions to daily life a near-constant reality.

For Ukrainians, Russia’s evolving aerial campaign is measured in destroyed homes, injuries, deaths, and lives permanently changed. 

In Kyiv, it has also changed everyday life: explosions interrupt sleep and work, people run for shelter as strikes unfold overhead, and the threat of another attack is never far away.

And the pressure is no longer confined to Kyiv. Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia are all facing increasingly sophisticated combinations of drones and missiles.

The danger is not simply that Russia is launching more weapons. It is that Moscow has spent years learning which weapons can penetrate Ukraine’s defenses, how to combine them, and how to force Ukraine to spend its most valuable interceptors.

Zelenskyy’s warning captures the urgency: “You cannot simply wait for Russia to perfect its repertoire of killings.”

Russia is adapting faster than Ukraine can rebuild its shield

The jet-powered Geran is only one part of the problem.

Russia has also dramatically increased its use of ballistic missiles. Reuters reported that 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles were launched in July and the first eight days of August, with more than half being inaccurate RM48U training missiles repurposed for combat. 

Ukraine has virtually exhausted its US-made Patriot interceptors, the only systems in its arsenal capable of reliably intercepting Russia’s ballistic missiles, while Moscow continues launching them at a high tempo.

The result is a more complex aerial threat: fast drones that are difficult to intercept, ballistic missiles that are extremely difficult to stop, and large waves of cheaper weapons that can force Ukraine to expend scarce defensive ammunition.

Ukraine is developing new ways to counter them, including interceptor drones specifically designed to hunt down the jet-powered Gerans. But Ukraine is developing these systems as Russia is already deploying its new weapons at scale.

Western countries have continued providing air-defense assistance. Canada, for example, announced a C$350 million package for interceptors earlier this month. But Ukrainian officials continue to say that deliveries remain far below what is needed to protect the country from Russia’s expanding aerial campaign.

Russia has spent years expanding the weapons it can use against Ukraine, while Ukraine and its partners are still racing to develop and supply the systems needed to stop them.

The threat Europe helped Russia develop

Some of Ukraine’s Western partners are now confronting a threat Russia has spent years developing over Ukraine: an increasingly sophisticated aerial arsenal that could eventually be turned against them.

European officials and defense analysts are increasingly warning that NATO countries themselves lack enough air and missile defenses to deal with a large Russian attack. 

Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkēvičs recently said Europe is not sufficiently prepared for the kind of drone and aerial warfare Russia has developed in Ukraine, including because of delays in supplying Ukraine with critical air-defense systems.

Those concerns are no longer hypothetical. On 14 September, an Italian NATO fighter jet shot down a Russian-made Geran-2 drone over Lithuania after it entered the country from Belarus. Poland and Romania have also faced Russian drone incursions since 2025.

This creates a problem that is partly of Europe’s own making. Russia has had more than four years to refine its drones, missiles, production lines and tactics while Ukraine’s partners have often been too slow to provide enough weapons to counter those systems as they were developed and deployed at scale.

In that same period, many European countries continued trading with Russia, particularly in fossil fuels, allowing Moscow to keep generating revenue from European markets even as those same governments were providing military aid to Ukraine.

The result is a Russian aerial arsenal that is more capable than the one Ukraine faced in 2022 – while some of the countries now worried about a future Russian threat lack the air defenses needed to protect themselves.

Western governments helped Ukraine fight Russia’s air war, but not at a scale or speed sufficient to prevent Russia from adapting. 

Ukrainian civilians are paying the price for the time Russia was given to expand and refine its aerial warfare. Now, Europe is having to prepare for the possibility that those capabilities could one day be used against it. 

Ukraine launched a massive long-range drone attack on Moscow and Moscow Oblast overnight on 20 September, striking a major Russian oil refinery and a logistics facility, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Ukraine is increasingly targeting Russian oil refineries, logistics hubs, and other strategic infrastructure that helps generate the fuel, revenue, and supplies Russia needs to sustain its war against Ukraine. Striking them allows Kyiv to put pressure on Russia’s war economy and military logistics far beyond the front line.

The Moscow Oil Refinery was among the facilities hit. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin confirmed that an object at the refinery was damaged, while OSINT analysis by ASTRA of eyewitness footage also identified the refinery as one of the attack’s targets.

Zelenskyy said the strikes were carried out using a range of Ukrainian long-range weapons and targeted infrastructure that generates revenue for Russia’s war effort.

The attack took place on the second day of Russia’s three-day State Duma elections, with voting taking place across the country from 19 to 21 September.

Moscow refinery targeted

Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces struck “one of the key enterprises of the Russian oil industry” in the Moscow region, along with a logistics facility.

The Moscow Oil Refinery is operated by Gazprom Neft and is located in Moscow’s Kapotnya district. According to information cited by ASTRA, it can process 11 million tons of oil annually and supplies about 40% of Moscow’s fuel market and 70% of the Moscow region’s gasoline and aviation fuel needs.

Sobyanin said an object on the refinery’s territory was damaged and that there were no casualties there.

Ukraine’s long-range campaign

Zelenskyy said Ukraine used FP-1, RZ-100, MICH-2000, Palianytsia, Vendetta, Liutyi, Bars, Flamingo, Sich, and Pelican systems in the operation.

He thanked the Security Service of Ukraine, Unmanned Systems Forces, Special Operations Forces, military intelligence, and Foreign Intelligence Service for their involvement.

“The billions of dollars” generated by such facilities help sustain Russia’s military machine, Zelenskyy said, framing the strikes as part of Ukraine’s effort to reduce Russia’s ability to finance and wage its war.

He also said Moscow should end its war rather than build layered air defenses using systems taken from other Russian regions.

Russian authorities report casualties

Russian officials claimed the overnight attack caused two deaths and six injuries across Moscow Oblast.

Governor Andrei Vorobyov claimed Russian air defenses and electronic warfare systems intercepted or suppressed 249 drones across 17 municipal districts between 3 and 5 a.m.

Vorobyov also claimed that a drone strike in Sofyino damaged six apartments in a three-story building, killing a 44-year-old woman and injuring five people. Another person was reportedly killed in a private house in the Orekhovo-Zuyevsky district.

In Ramenskoye, Russian authorities reported a fire at a 21-story apartment building and said about 400 people were evacuated.

Sobyanin separately claimed that the attack was intended to disrupt Russia’s State Duma elections, which were taking place on 20 September. Ukrainian authorities did not say that this was the purpose of the strikes.