The Institute for the Study of War reported on 15 September that Russian officials are intensifying threats against NATO member states following recent drone incursions into Poland, with top Kremlin figures warning of direct confrontation over Western support for Ukraine.

Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on 15 September that a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine permitting NATO aircraft to shoot down Russian drones would “mean only one thing – a war between NATO and Russia,” according to ISW analysis of his Russian- and English-language channels.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov explicitly said on 15 September that “NATO is at war with Russia” and “NATO is de facto involved in” the war in Ukraine by providing support to Ukraine.

The threats target European financial measures against Russia. Medvedev warned that Russia will “go after” EU states providing Ukraine with loans backed by Russian assets in “all possible international and national courts.” He added that “in some cases, [Russia will] bypass court procedure” – what ISW characterizes as a possible threat to use kinetic action against EU states.

Peskov condemned European efforts to seize frozen Russian assets, stating that “such steps will not go unnoticed,” according to the analysis.

ISW assesses that these statements aim to prevent NATO and European states from defending themselves and Ukraine against Russian provocations, including the 9-10 September drone incursion into Poland.

ISW notes that Kremlin officials routinely invoke narratives similar to those Russia used to justify its Ukraine invasions – including territorial claims and false characterizations of Euromaidan as a “coup” – when threatening neighboring states, including NATO members.

Meanwhile, Russian and Belarusian forces continued Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on 15 September, implementing tactical lessons from Ukraine operations, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Forces conducted training at Borisovsky and 227th Combined Arms training grounds in Minsk Oblast, Kaliningrad Oblast, and the Barents Sea.

The Russian MoD confirmed that Leningrad Military District elements practiced deploying nuclear-capable Iskander-M ballistic missile systems in Kaliningrad Oblast, which borders NATO members Lithuania and Poland. The nuclear-capable Arkhangelsk submarine practiced launching missile strikes against naval targets, while Northern Fleet elements struck mock enemy submarines in the Barents Sea.

Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bombers patrolled “the neutral waters of the Barents Sea” for four hours, the MoD reported. The Belarusian MoD stated that representatives from 23 countries, including the United States, Hungary, and Türkiye, observed the exercises.

ISW highlights that Russian and Belarusian forces practiced maneuvering with all-terrain vehicles to reduce crossing times in open areas and decrease vulnerability to first-person view drone strikes – tactics developed from Ukraine battlefield experience. The exercises allow Russia to institutionalize combat lessons outside active combat zones while improving joint interoperability with Belarus.

The analysis warns that Russia is using Zapad-2025 to practice potential kinetic provocations against NATO states. Nuclear capability exercises occurred in Barents Sea waters bordering Norway and in Kaliningrad Oblast near Lithuania and Poland.

EU Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius said on 15 September that 40% of European flights face jamming – likely from Russia. ISW reported that Russian officials previously used Kaliningrad for GPS jamming across Europe and reportedly constructed a military-grade Circularly Disposed Antenna Array 25 kilometers from the Polish border.

The report concludes that Zapad-2025 provides Russia and Belarus a platform to refine escalation techniques that serve as pressure against NATO.

In its 8 September assessment, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned that Russian officials are now applying the same disinformation tactics used to justify the invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022—this time targeting Finland.

Medvedev threatens Finland with collapse, echoes invasion rhetoric

Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev issued direct threats against Finland in a 8 September opinion piece published by Kremlin newswire TASS. He claimed that Finland should not “forget” that conflict with Russia “could lead to the collapse of Finnish statehood forever.” Medvedev accused Finnish authorities of having historic ties to Nazi Germany, and alleged they aimed to expand into parts of modern-day Russia, including Eastern Karelia, Leningrad (now St. Petersburg), and the Kola Peninsula.

Medvedev claimed that Finland’s government is “Russophobic” and driven by greed, “installed in Finnish minds back in the days of Hitler.” He also alleged that Finnish authorities committed genocide against Slavs and tried to erase the historical and cultural identity of ethnic Russians. According to Medvedev, Finland joined NATO under a false pretense of defense but is actually preparing for war against Russia.

ISW: Kremlin setting conditions for future aggression

According to ISW, the propaganda targeting Finland follows a familiar pattern. The think tank noted that Russian officials are once again invoking the so-called “root causes” of conflict—a phrase frequently used to support Russia’s aggressive policies toward Ukraine. Medvedev claimed these root causes date back to World War II, aligning with Kremlin arguments that NATO’s expansion and alleged anti-Russian discrimination justify military responses.

ISW highlighted that Kremlin narratives like these are not isolated. On 13 March, Russian Presidential Aide and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev accused Finland of attempting to “exterminate” the Slavic population and claimed the West is turning Finland into a launchpad for aggression. In December 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed NATO “dragged” Finland into the alliance and warned that “there will be problems” with Finland.

ISW assessed that the Kremlin is now applying the same disinformation playbook to NATO members, such as Finland and the Baltic States. The think tank emphasized that this shift is part of a broader effort to normalize the idea of conflict with NATO and lay the informational groundwork for escalation.

In a report on 31 August, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) outlined how the Kremlin has intensified its multi-pronged information campaign to weaken Western support for Ukraine and derail the European role in peace efforts in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

Russia is now aggressively pushing three narrative lines at once: blaming European states for prolonging the war, reviving nuclear threats, and portraying Russian victory as inevitable.

Kremlin blames Europe for dragging out the war

Kremlin officials have returned to a long-standing propaganda line that paints European states as obstacles to peace in Ukraine. ISW noted that Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev recently implied that European countries are deliberately extending the conflict. According to ISW, Russia is using Dmitriev—who frequently represents Kremlin interests on Western platforms—to reintroduce this message into the Western media environment, aiming to erode US confidence in European allies.

Medvedev threatens nuclear consequences for backing Ukraine

On 31 August, Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev launched a pointed attack against French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Posting on his English-language X account, Medvedev accused the two leaders of having “forgotten the lessons” of World War II. He warned that “things could end up like they did in 1945 – [Macron and Merz] too may end up being identified by their teeth,” directly invoking the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Medvedev also described recent Russian military progress as “bad news” for the European leaders.

ISW assessed that this language is intended to threaten France and Germany with nuclear consequences for their involvement in US-led efforts to end the war, while simultaneously amplifying the idea of unstoppable Russian military momentum.

Moscow promotes image of inevitable victory

Alongside these threats, the Kremlin continues to push the idea that Russian victory in Ukraine is certain. ISW reported that the Russian Ministry of Defense has ramped up its efforts to project battlefield success using large volumes of qualitative data. However, ISW assessed that these claims are inflated and part of the broader strategy to demoralize Ukraine’s allies and reduce Western resolve.

More than 210,000 Russians signed contracts with the Defense Ministry from January to July 2025 to fight in Ukraine, Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, said on July 2.

"The pace is quite decent, good," Medvedev said at a meeting of the commission on Armed Forces staffing. "I hope that we will be able to maintain the same momentum in the future."

An additional 18,000 individuals have joined volunteer units, Medvedev added.

The revelation comes as Russia continues to escalate its war effort despite repeated calls from Ukraine, the U.S., and European partners for an unconditional ceasefire.

According to Western and Ukrainian intelligence cited by the Wall Street Journal, Russian forces recruit 30,000 to 45,000 new troops monthly — nearly twice the rate of Ukraine's mobilization, which President Volodymyr Zelensky said stands at 25,000–27,000 troops per month.

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Ukraine estimates that Russia has suffered nearly 1 million casualties since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. However, Moscow has offset its losses through aggressive recruitment and a steady influx of contract soldiers.

In late 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree increasing the size of the Armed Forces to 2.38 million personnel, including 1.5 million military service members.

Russia also this year launched its largest conscription drive in 14 years, aiming to enlist 160,000 men for mandatory service. The country holds two annual conscription campaigns, in spring and fall, requiring one year of service from eligible men.

While conscripts are not typically deployed to combat zones, the Kremlin has leaned on financial incentives and promises of pardons to recruit civilians and former inmates for its war.

Following the deeply unpopular partial mobilization of September 2022, which triggered an exodus of over 261,000 Russians, Moscow has avoided mass drafts, relying instead on contract-based service.

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The halting of deliveries of air defense missiles from the U.S. will lead to“major casualties among civilians,” a deputy commander in Ukraine’s air defense told the Kyiv Independent. Politico reported on July 1 that the U.S. Defense Department (DOD) had halted shipments of some weapons previously

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