The summit in The Hague opens new opportunities for Ukraine. The real outcomes of the NATO summit demonstrate not decline, but a revival of the Alliance, ready for a long-term struggle against Russian aggression, says Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, in a comment for Espresso.

“The organizers centered the meeting around the American president, and it worked. Riding the wave of success after the strike on Iran, Trump essentially agreed to all proposals from European colleagues,” the expert notes.

Samus emphasizes that this time, the US president, Donald Trump, was “unusually courteous towards Ukraine and Ukrainians,” which offers hope for more decisive actions on the Russia-Ukraine front.

One of the key achievements is the recognition of Russia as a “long-term threat,” which shifts NATO’s approach from a temporary response to strategic planning.

“The Russian threat is a systemic existential threat that requires rearmament and a shift in defense priorities,” Samus stresses.

The allies also agreed to invest up to 5% of GDP in security and defense. For the first time in the Alliance’s history, quantitative parameters were set not only for overall spending but also for its structural components: 3.5% for the armed forces and up to 1.5% for infrastructure, innovation, and defense industry.

“Including aid to Ukraine in the defense commitments of member states means institutional legitimization of military assistance to Ukraine as a component of NATO collective security,” the expert underlines.

Trump’s actual agreement with the core principles of this agenda shows that despite the threat of political fragmentation, the strategic security logic within the Alliance currently prevails.

He concludes that Ukraine’s integration into the Euro-Atlantic security system provides a new chance to form an effective deterrence mechanism against the “axis of evil.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to pursue a long-term strategy of grinding attritional warfare in Ukraine, according to a 19 June assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Putin reiterated claims of Russian advances along the entire frontline and warned of worsening terms if Ukraine rejects Russian “peace” proposals. “The West has failed to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to reevaluate his theory of victory in Ukraine in the past year,” ISW says.

During a session with foreign journalists at SPIEF on 19 June, Putin stated that Russian troops have a “strategic advantage” and are “still advancing” daily, even if progress is slower on some days. He contrasted the current situation with the March 2022 Istanbul peace talks, arguing that Russia’s demands have since grown stronger. Putin warned that Ukraine’s refusal to negotiate on Russia’s terms could lead to more severe consequences.

ISW: Putin’s economic forum now a tool to spread wartime optimism

He claimed that Russia remains prepared to achieve its objectives through military force if diplomacy fails.

ISW highlights strategic assumptions and risks

ISW assessed that Putin’s strategy hinges on the belief that Ukrainian forces will fail to regain lost ground and that Russian manpower and materiel advantages will outlast Ukraine’s resources and Western support. However, ISW notes that Russia is incurring disproportionately high losses for marginal gains, calling such a strategy unsustainable in the medium to long term.

Economic challenges and defense industry limitations are likely to impede Moscow’s ability to continue the war indefinitely. While higher oil revenues from rising prices — partly due to Israeli strikes against Iran — may help fund the war, this benefit is conditional on global oil trends and potential sanctions.

Putin adapts reflexive control campaign

ISW observed that Putin used the SPIEF platform to escalate Russia’s reflexive control campaign aimed at deterring Western military aid and NATO rearmament. He argued that NATO poses no real threat to Russia and claimed that Russia is capable of managing all potential dangers. Nevertheless, he warned that Germany’s potential delivery of Taurus missiles to Ukraine would damage bilateral ties — a marked shift from earlier Kremlin assertions that Western weapons would have no battlefield impact.

Putin also claimed that the idea of Russia planning to attack NATO were “nonsense,” despite recent Russian threats targeting the Baltic States and Finland.

Threats to supply adversaries and shift narrative

At SPIEF, Putin warned that Russia might begin supplying long-range weapons to unspecified Western enemies if Ukraine uses Western-supplied arms to strike Russian territory — a direct threat not present in his latest 2025 comments but previously made in June 2024. ISW notes that this reflects the Kremlin’s evolving messaging, adapted for different audiences.

Putin again attacks Zelenskyy’s legitimacy

Putin declared on 19 June that he would not sign any peace agreement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, repeating the false claim that Zelenskyy’s term has expired without legal basis for extension. He stated that Russia will only sign agreements with “legitimate” authorities, and further alleged that if the president is illegitimate, then so is the entire Ukrainian government. These claims contradict Ukrainian law, which allows for martial law to delay elections while national security is threatened.

Kremlin doubles down on old narratives

According to ISW, Putin used his appearance with Western journalists to recycle standard Kremlin narratives — including blaming the West for starting the war and violating the Minsk agreements. Kremlin spokesman Peskov said on 18 June that Putin sought to “accurately” present Russia’s viewpoint to international audiences. ISW assessed that this outreach aims to influence ongoing Western debates on future military aid to Ukraine.

Russia made more territorial gains in Ukraine in May 2025 than in nearly any month since the end of 2022, but the Kremlin’s aim is not only battlefield progress but also to shape perceptions in Western capitals, making a Russian victory appear inevitable and discouraging future support for Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Kremlin intensifies multi-front assaults to create momentum

WSJ reports that the Russian offensive has expanded across several fronts, with the Kremlin probing for weaknesses while forcing Ukraine to defend along the entire 1,000 km front line. Moscow seeks to exploit its manpower advantage and the onset of summer foliage, which hampers Ukrainian drone visibility.

George Barros, an analyst with the Institute for the Study of War, told WSJ:

“The center of gravity for this war is not terrain—the place where it’s being decisively waged is the perception space in Western capitals.” He added, referring to the Russian reasoning behind the strategy: “If the map is moving, they’re able to say, ‘We’re making progress. Ukraine is screwed. How many more billions are you going to spend?’”

Putin counting on US fatigue to win what his army cannot, WP op-ed argues

Kostyantynivka becomes key focus in eastern Ukraine

In Donetsk Oblast, Russia has shifted troops toward Kostiantynivka from Pokrovsk, surrounding the city on three sides. The city, a vital logistics hub, is under increased attack. A senior Ukrainian lieutenant fighting in the area told WSJ: “The city is rapidly transforming into a front line.” He also warned of frequent, precise Russian drone strikes enabled by fiber-optic drones capable of traveling up to 40 km — double their range a year ago.

Russian airstrikes intensify on Ukrainian second defensive line northeast of Pokrovsk

Northern front sees renewed Russian push toward Sumy

In Ukraine’s north, Russian troops have entered Sumy Oblast after amassing over 50,000 soldiers. According to WSJ, one Ukrainian sergeant in the region said the Russians outnumber local troops roughly two-to-one. Russian forces appear to be attempting to seize Yunakivka and ultimately reach the regional capital of Sumy, located less than 30 km from the border.

Even where Russian forces have not advanced, assaults continue to fix Ukrainian forces in place. A Ukrainian captain in the Pokrovsk area told WSJ that Russian attacks happen at all hours:

“They want to reach the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast—it’s important to them symbolically.”

Russia captures Sumy’s Kostiantynivka village as Russians try to widen frontline in region

Zaporizhzhia buildup raises concerns of wider offensive

Ukrainian officials and sources familiar with the matter told WSJ that Russia is also increasing its troop presence in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukrainian special forces have been sent there to reinforce defenses.

A senior lieutenant near Kostiantynivka summarized the toll of the ongoing campaign:

“We anticipate worsening conditions across all directions this summer. Personnel are exhausted. There are not enough rotations. Everyone is operating at the edge of their limits.”

The European Commission has reportedly appointed former home affairs commissioner Ylva Johansson as the EU’s special envoy for Ukrainians, a newly created position to implement its updated refugee strategy.

Politico reported on 12 June that two officials familiar with the matter confirmed Johansson’s selection. Her appointment comes as the European Union unveiled a long-term approach to manage the needs of the displaced Ukrainians.

Johansson, who served as home affairs commissioner from 2019 to 2024, previously visited Ukraine several times. Her trips included a visit to a refugee camp near the Romania border. In recognition of her efforts, she received the Ukrainian order of merit in September last year.

Refugee protection extended as part of the EU’s updated response

Last week, the European Commission extended the temporary protection status for Ukrainian refugees, reinforcing its commitment to their welfare. The EU executive detailed plans to either transition these individuals into permanent legal arrangements or assist those who choose to return to Ukraine. Johansson is expected to be at the forefront of coordinating these measures across member states.

While some European officials have expressed concerns over growing “fatigue” in certain host countries toward hosting Ukrainian refugees, others remain in favor of retaining them to strengthen local workforces. 

Russia’s claims of success in Ukraine mask a far grimmer military reality: minimal territorial gains exchanged for unprecedented casualties and losses, Riley McCabe of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argues in an opinion piece in The Washington Post.

The author notes that Moscow shows little interest in serious diplomacy and continues to demand maximalist terms while launching new attacks. The op-ed emphasizes that despite its narrative of strength, Russia’s hand is far weaker than assumed by many in the West.

Russia’s advances yield limited territorial gains  

In contrast, McCabe writes that Russia has been using brute force to advance since early 2024, but with little to show for it. Data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies cited in the article shows that Moscow has seized less than 1% of Ukrainian territory since January 2024—an area smaller than Delaware. Russian forces have managed daily advances averaging only about 50 meters near Kupiansk and roughly 135 meters in parts of Donetsk Oblast, even in their most active sectors.

Ukraine’s defenses, McCabe writes, give it the edge. Russian forces run into minefields, trench systems, and artillery zones, with drones causing most combat deaths. This setup has turned the conflict into a bloody deadlock.

Scale of Russian casualties is historical

According to McCabe, these minor gains have come at an extraordinary cost. Russian fatalities in Ukraine now exceed the total number of Soviet and Russian soldiers killed in every war since World War II combined. By summer 2025, Russia is projected to surpass 1 million total military casualties. The op-ed notes that Russian equipment losses since January 2024 include roughly 1,200 armored fighting vehicles, 3,200 infantry fighting vehicles, and 1,900 tanks.

Russia loses one million soldiers: Moscow’s casualties reach seven figures, Ukraine says

McCabe includes comparisons showing that Russia’s death toll in Ukraine now exceeds losses in every Soviet and Russian war since World War II. The opinion piece includes visual breakdowns of fatalities from conflicts in Chechnya, Afghanistan, Syria, Georgia, and others—none of which approach current Ukrainian war figures.

Putin bets on US withdrawal, not battlefield success

The opinion piece argues that Russia’s best hope lies in Western political fatigue. McCabe writes,

“Putin is betting that political fatigue in Washington will deliver him what his military cannot.”

The author warns that a loss of US support could deprive Ukraine of air defenses, munitions, and strike capabilities, and shatter morale. 

Trump again blames both Ukraine and Russia for failing to reach a peace deal