Russia’s claims of success in Ukraine mask a far grimmer military reality: minimal territorial gains exchanged for unprecedented casualties and losses, Riley McCabe of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argues in an opinion piece in The Washington Post.

The author notes that Moscow shows little interest in serious diplomacy and continues to demand maximalist terms while launching new attacks. The op-ed emphasizes that despite its narrative of strength, Russia’s hand is far weaker than assumed by many in the West.

Russia’s advances yield limited territorial gains  

In contrast, McCabe writes that Russia has been using brute force to advance since early 2024, but with little to show for it. Data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies cited in the article shows that Moscow has seized less than 1% of Ukrainian territory since January 2024—an area smaller than Delaware. Russian forces have managed daily advances averaging only about 50 meters near Kupiansk and roughly 135 meters in parts of Donetsk Oblast, even in their most active sectors.

Ukraine’s defenses, McCabe writes, give it the edge. Russian forces run into minefields, trench systems, and artillery zones, with drones causing most combat deaths. This setup has turned the conflict into a bloody deadlock.

Scale of Russian casualties is historical

According to McCabe, these minor gains have come at an extraordinary cost. Russian fatalities in Ukraine now exceed the total number of Soviet and Russian soldiers killed in every war since World War II combined. By summer 2025, Russia is projected to surpass 1 million total military casualties. The op-ed notes that Russian equipment losses since January 2024 include roughly 1,200 armored fighting vehicles, 3,200 infantry fighting vehicles, and 1,900 tanks.

Russia loses one million soldiers: Moscow’s casualties reach seven figures, Ukraine says

McCabe includes comparisons showing that Russia’s death toll in Ukraine now exceeds losses in every Soviet and Russian war since World War II. The opinion piece includes visual breakdowns of fatalities from conflicts in Chechnya, Afghanistan, Syria, Georgia, and others—none of which approach current Ukrainian war figures.

Putin bets on US withdrawal, not battlefield success

The opinion piece argues that Russia’s best hope lies in Western political fatigue. McCabe writes,

“Putin is betting that political fatigue in Washington will deliver him what his military cannot.”

The author warns that a loss of US support could deprive Ukraine of air defenses, munitions, and strike capabilities, and shatter morale. 

Trump again blames both Ukraine and Russia for failing to reach a peace deal

Exclusive

The genocide definer predicted Putin’s Ukraine war 70 years ago — and was right. The lawyer behind the term “genocide” warned that Moscow was set to erase Ukraine’s identity—and Putin’s invasion proved him devastatingly right.

Russia attacks Ukraine with 355 drones. Zelenskyy says Moscow escalates attacks to defy global diplomacy. It was the third consecutive night of Russia’s massive combined drone and missile assault on Ukraine.

Russia tests new anti-drone “porcupine” tank. Ukraine’s drones still win. From cope cages to turtle tanks, Russian anti-drone armor kept evolving. The latest iteration—a porcupine bristling with metal spikes—just met Ukrainian drones and lost, but likely won’t be the last.

Trump’s hidden China plan just blew up in Istanbul. Trump believes he can steal Russia from China’s embrace—but Moscow has already been bought.

Russia bombs Ukrainian hotels full of journalists — 31 times, on purpose. A new report calls it a calculated assault on the press.

Military

Ukrainian attack targets Russian facility 800 kilometers from border that supplies gunpowder manufacturers. Ukrainian drones struck the same Russian chemical facility for the second time in five months, hitting a plant that supplies materials for military explosives production.

Ukrainian drones target Splav rocket plant in Russia’s Tula for the third time this month. Geolocated video suggests the same workshop was hit last night as in a prior attack on NPO Splav site. Alternatively, one of the Russian equipment storage bases might have been a target.

Drones hit Russia’s Shahed drone factory 1,200 km from Ukraine again. The facility in Tatarstan’s Yelabuga was previously targeted in April.

Ukraine faces third consecutive night of massive Russian drone attacks. Russian forces conducted their most extensive missile and drone strikes of the full-scale war over the past 48 hours. Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Kharkiv oblasts sustained another Russian attack overnight on 26 May

German Merz: Ukraine now free to strike deep inside Russia with Western long-range weapons. Chancellor Friedrich Merz emphasized that these strikes only target military infrastructure and not civilians unlike Russian attacks.

ISW: Russia ramps up missile strikes and propaganda in bid to crush Ukrainian morale and Western will. With battlefield progress stalled, Moscow turns to messaging warfare.

As of 26 MAY 2025, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 981850 (+1000)
    • Tanks: 10858 (+4)
    • APV: 22641 (+8)
    • Artillery systems: 28320 (+51)
    • MLRS: 1397 (+1)
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 1171
    • Aircraft: 372
    • Helicopters: 336
    • UAV: 37631 (+264)
    • Cruise missiles : 3256 (+53)
    • Warships/boats: 28
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 49843 (+92)

Intelligence and technology

Ukraine intelligence: Russia can theoretically mobilize 25 million people. Only 3 million would be combat ready. Since the full-scale invasion began, Moscow mobilized 1.3 million troops and nearly one million of Russian soldiers were killed or wounded during this time, while the Kremlin remains committed to the war of attrition in Ukraine.

Belarus has nuclear carriers but no warheads, says Ukrainian intelligence. Ukraine’s intelligence service says that nuclear weapon carriers including aircraft and Iskander missiles are present in Belarus but no warheads have been deployed there despite Russian deployment agreements.

International

Netherlands sends last batch of F-16s to protect Ukraine amid intensified Russian attacks. The completion of the 24-aircraft donation comes as Ukrainian forces face daily Russian air attacks, with the jets providing enhanced survivability over outdated Soviet aircraft.

Sweden allocates half a billion dollars for Ukraine defense and security. The funding will be distributed across multiple international procurement initiatives rather than direct weapons transfers.

Latvia urges EU to shut visa door on Russians. Latvian interior and foreign ministers cite security risks as grounds for halting all new visas to Russian nationals.

EU warns US: “Peace through strength” only works if Ukraine gets more support. EU defense chief Kubilius says Ukraine’s partners must step up, or peace will remain out of reach.

Merz: Hungary and Slovakia could lose EU funds over pro-Russia stance. EU won’t tolerate Hungary and Slovakia blocking Russia sanctions, the German Chancellor says.

Dutch defense chief seeks to include Zelenskyy to June NATO summit in The Hague. Minister Ruben Brekelmans stated though that Zelenskyy’s participation would likely occur outside the main session with all 32 member states.

Macron: Trump now realizes Putin lied to him about Ukraine peace readiness. French President said this in response to Trump’s recent comments that Putin “has gone absolutely crazy” and “needlessly kills a lot of people” following a deadly 25 May attack on Ukraine.

Trump slams Putin as “crazy” after deadly Russian attack, but also blames Zelenskyy and Biden. He believes something “happened” to Putin, while claiming Zelenskyy worsens the war.

EU Defense Chief: “Russia not as powerful as thought” – won’t win Ukraine war. European Commissioner Andrius Kubilius says the EU must avoid a “chaotic divorce” with America while preparing for reduced US military involvement in European defense.

Read our earlier daily review here.