Ukrainian partisans say they have sabotaged the railway signaling that keeps Russian troops supplied on the Lyman front. The ATESH movement reports that its agents disabled four relay cabinets on a line through Voronezh Oblast that carries military cargo to Russian forces there, delaying ammunition to three regiments.

The strike was timed to help Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi, the counteroffensive the Third Army Corps is running near Lyman in northern Donetsk. In its first phase, the operation cleared 75 square kilometers of Russian infiltrators and de-occupied another 10.

Cutting the rail line that feeds the Russian units facing that offensive is, by ATESH's account, part of the same fight, targeting the supply line rather than the front.

Four cabinets go dark

The sabotage hit a rail corridor running through the Voronezh, Novovoronezh, Liski, and Ostrogozhsk areas of Voronezh Oblast, a route ATESH says Russia uses to move military cargo toward the Lyman axis.

Relay cabinets house the switching gear that runs a line's automatic signals. Knocking them out can freeze traffic on a stretch of track without a single explosion, and ATESH says its agents disabled four of them. As with the movement's other claims, the account could not be independently verified.

Ammunition backs up

By ATESH's telling, the signaling failure delayed shipments of ammunition and engineering materiel to the 1st and 15th Guards regiments and the 254th Motor Rifle Regiment. Russian commanders, it said, had to rush in repair crews and divert resources to guard the infrastructure. A delayed shipment, far behind the front, can be felt at it, where an assaulted position waits for the ammunition that does not arrive.

ATESH hunts the supply lines

ATESH is a network of pro-Ukrainian agents operating inside Russia and Russian-occupied territory, and it has increasingly gone after the rail and power infrastructure that sustains Moscow's war. This month, the group also said it knocked out the power supply of a plant in Voronezh that makes components for Russian missiles.

Investigators found what they believe is explosives meters from a crashed drone near the Bundeswehr's Wunstorf air base in Lower Saxony, Germany, and the device matches the construction of drones used in the GRU-attributed Leipzig airport attack, Süddeutsche Zeitung, NDR, and WDR reported on 22 September. Germany's federal prosecutor and the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) have taken over the investigation, and the same reporting traced one of the Leipzig suspects to a sanctioned GRU colonel who directs sabotage against countries arming Ukraine.

Russia's sabotage campaign against countries supporting Ukraine has escalated from arson packages and recruited proxies to explosives-laden drones targeting military infrastructure inside NATO. Germany's military counterintelligence has attributed repeated sabotage on German soil to Russia, while Finnish President Stubb called the broader alarm about Russian threats an "overreaction"—a position the accumulating evidence from Germany and Poland does not support.

Explosives found days after the drone crash

A farmer discovered the drone, broken into several pieces, on the evening of 14 September, about one kilometer from the Wunstorf air base, Militarnyi reported. Days later, police found a suspicious substance just meters from the crash site. Security sources told SZ, NDR, and WDR they believe it is an explosive, though forensic analysis has not yet been completed.

The drone's design is similar to the devices used in the Leipzig airport attack on 4 August, when attackers tried to destroy Ukrainian cargo planes with explosives-laden drones. At least one component was manufactured using a 3D printer, the reporting found. Investigators believe the drone may have been near the military airfield for a long time—possibly up to two years.

Wunstorf air base houses the Bundeswehr's entire A400M transport fleet. The facility is Germany's central hub for moving troops and materiel worldwide. An explosives-laden drone near this base would represent a direct threat to the Bundeswehr's central global logistics hub.

The Wunstorf find was discussed at the weekly intelligence briefing in the Chancellery on 22 September, the outlets reported.

Leipzig suspect linked to sanctioned GRU colonel

The federal prosecutor's investigation connects the Wunstorf case to the Leipzig attack. In that case, Germany's government has officially blamed Russia. Two suspects were identified: Oleg L., a Latvian with a Russian passport, and Andrei K., a dual Belarusian-Russian citizen whose DNA was found at the Leipzig scene.

SZ, NDR, and WDR reported that Oleg L. maintained years-long contacts with GRU Colonel Denis Smolyaninov. The EU sanctioned Smolyaninov for directing sabotage operations against countries supporting Ukraine. Andrei K. had previously been noticed for minor offenses in the Baltic states and Finland and entered Germany on an Italian tourist visa. Moscow denied involvement in the Leipzig attack.

A drone violated the no-fly zone around NATO's missile shield base in Poland

The Wunstorf case came to light in the same week that a drone violated the no-fly zone around the US-operated Aegis Ashore missile defense base in Redzikowo, northern Poland, on 15 September.

Polish troops guarding the facility called civilian emergency services instead of neutralizing the drone, TVP World reported. Poland's defense ministry said the drone was a civilian device that "posed no threat" and remained under military surveillance, but Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz ordered a full report into the incident.

Russia is trying to "scare Europe" through hybrid attacks so that it provides less support to Ukraine, but Moscow has neither an interest in nor the capability to escalate to a full-scale military confrontation with NATO, Finnish President Alexander Stubb told Politico on 21 September during an interview on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly—even as other European leaders warn that Russian strikes on NATO territory could come within months.

Ukraine critically needs Western support as Russia's full-scale invasion continues. NATO's PURL program has provided about 75% of all Patriot battery missiles and 90% of the missiles used in other air defense systems since its launch last summer, according to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on 3 February. Some countries are also hubs for defense companies that produce weapons for Ukraine. Russia is trying to pressure such countries, including through hybrid attacks. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the head of the Czech security service have warned that Russia could strike NATO territory within months. The Finnish president says his own intelligence sees activity but no imminent military threat, and calls it an "overreaction" when intelligence services tell their neighbors they are next for a Russian invasion.

Finnish intelligence sees Russian activity but no imminent military threat, Stubb says

Stubb calls claims by some intelligence services that Europe is next for a Russian invasion an "overreaction" and says he sees no evidence of this.

"We think we have to be vigilant and awake. But, you know, we have the longest border in NATO with Russia, it's half the border. In our intelligence we see that there is activity but no imminent military threat right now," Stubb added.

He says Russia will continue hybrid attacks, so Europe must be prepared and support Ukraine

Europe should prepare for Russia's "continued hybrid and sabotage attacks," but should not "overreact" to them, as Russia wants to scare its allies so that they slow down their support for Ukraine, the Finnish president said.

"And any time we overreact to a hybrid attack, they have actually won the battle in that particular way," Stubb told Politico.

Europe should remain "cool, calm and collected" during such Russian intimidation, the Finnish president said.

Germany's recent decision to officially hold Russia responsible for an attempted drone attack in Leipzig is "exactly what you need to do," Stubb said.

"You need to point the finger and say, we know what you're doing, and these are the consequences," he added.

A pro-Kremlin group, Global Citizens Against War 1984, issued an ultimatum to Latvia, Poland, and Portugal to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine by 7 October, threatening to disrupt defense companies in those countries.

Warnings from Warsaw and Prague paint a different picture

Russia could carry out "accidental" drone or missile strikes against NATO countries supporting Ukraine in an attempt to weaken the Alliance's integrity and persuade members that Article 5 is more theoretical than practical, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in parliament on 17 September, citing NATO, Ukrainian, and Polish intelligence assessments.

"There is a real risk that drones or other types of missiles could enter the territory of one or several NATO countries on the eastern flank," Tusk said.

The head of the Czech security service warned separately that Russia could undertake a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, and a massive influence campaign in a matter of months rather than years.