Ukraine has nearly run out of the one weapon that reliably stops Russia's ballistic missiles, and no replacement is close, according to The Economist. Now it is betting on cheaper homemade interceptors—and on hitting Russian missiles before they launch.

Russia has spent this year rebuilding its arsenal around the weapons Ukraine can least often intercept and aiming them at cities and the power grid, so the race to field cheap defenses will help decide how many people survive another winter of strikes.

Ukraine's homemade bet

Kyiv is building its own answer. The pan-European Freyja project, led by Ukrainian firm Fire Point with 12 European defense companies, aims for an interceptor near $700,000. That is a fraction of a $7 million export Patriot round. The second track is "left-of-launch": hitting the factories and launchers before missiles fly. In March, Ukraine struck a Bryansk plant making Iskander components. It also hopes to add its own Sapsan and FP-series missiles within months, though catching Russia's mobile launchers is a tall order.

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Faster drones, less warning

Russia sends waves of jet-powered Geran-4 and -5 drones to swamp Ukrainian radar, then fires ballistic missiles behind them. The drones fly at up to 600 kph, and 3,000 leave Russian factories each month. Over five days to 1 September, Russia hit Kyiv almost hourly. The barrage paused on 6 September for the visit of American envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who had just met Putin in Moscow. The day after they left, Russia killed three civilians. Ukraine's F-16s, meanwhile, are running low on the American air-to-air missiles they need against cruise missiles.

The shield is empty

Ballistic missiles are the class of Russian weapon Ukraine's air defenses stop least often, which is why Brussels recently cleared Ukraine to spend EU loan money on American interceptors for the winter, and why a cheaper homemade fix carries so much weight.

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Of 57 ballistic missiles fired in the first eight days of August, Ukraine intercepted only one. Kyiv has almost nothing left of the PAC-3, the one interceptor that reliably downs them. Russia now turns out about 100 of its deadliest missiles a month, 60 of them Iskander-Ms. Resupply looks unlikely, because US President Donald Trump's war on Iran drained America's own Patriot stocks, and no ally wants to give up interceptors it cannot replace.

Moldova closed its airspace on the afternoon of 8 September and delayed the plane carrying Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Norway after a Russian drone crossed into the country, its government said in a statement to Reuters. The aircraft was cleared for takeoff once officials established that it had come down on Moldovan territory. Norway's prime minister described the episode as a near-miss, and neither government has said how close the drone came.

Russia runs three things at once along the EU's eastern frontier—mass drone attacks on Ukraine, drones crossing into Moldovan and Romanian airspace almost weekly, and strikes on the border checkpoints tying the three countries together—and states without interceptors can answer only by closing their skies.

What happened, and when

Moldova's National Army detected a Shahed-type drone entering from Ukraine at 16:20, the country's Defense Ministry reported. It flew toward Bender, a city in the Russian-backed breakaway region of Transnistria, then turned toward the capital, Chișinău, by 16:32. At 16:37, it left the country over western Moldova and headed into eastern Romania, across the Prut river border.

Controllers restricted the airspace over central Moldova at 16:30. The same drone came back from the Romanian side, crossed the north of the country, and came down outside a village in the northwest, near the Romanian border, setting dry vegetation alight, according to the log. Nobody was hurt, and the airspace reopened at 17:39, more than an hour after it closed. The BBC's Ukrainian service placed the crash near a different northern village, without naming a source, so the exact spot is unsettled.

The violation fell in the window when Zelenskyy's aircraft was preparing to take off, Militarnyi reported, citing the ministry. The civilian airport he was leaving from suspended operations and the border service closed the nearby crossings, the outlet added. Three departures and four arrivals were delayed in all, Reuters said.

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How the plane and the drone crossed paths

Zelenskyy flies an Airbus A319 corporate jet, and the threat to it probably came from a jet-powered Geran drone that crossed Romanian and then Moldovan airspace at around 17:00 that day, Militarnyi wrote, publishing the drone's track from the monitoring channel Oko Hora. That fits the return leg in the army's log, though no authority has tied a specific aircraft to the delay.

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre told the broadcaster NRK the plane was almost hit as it prepared to leave, without naming his source. His office later described a danger recorded in Moldovan airspace that forced the delay. Norway's Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg said Zelenskyy recounted the details himself at a closed meeting in Oslo.

Zelenskyy and First Lady Olena Zelenska attended the farewell ceremony for King Harald V, who died on 28 August. Around it, the president worked on air defense, meeting Støre and then executives of defense companies from partner countries about the FREYJA anti-ballistic missile program, which Norway's government casts as a cheaper alternative to the Patriot.

The next night, the border crossing

Overnight on 9 September, Russian drones struck the Starokozache crossing on Ukraine's border with Moldova, killing two people and injuring three. The dead were Ukrainians, and a Moldovan citizen was among the injured, Moldova's Foreign Ministry told the broadcaster TV8. Border guards reopened the crossing that afternoon.

Russia claimed it had struck the crossing because it was used for military logistics. Moldova's Foreign Ministry rejected that outright, saying no weapons move through its territory, and that the people crossing there are families, children with their mothers, and the elderly. It is one of the working crossings on the Odesa Oblast stretch of the Ukrainian-Moldovan border, where the heaviest traffic runs through Palanca and Giurgiulești.

Moldova's President Maia Sandu condemned both the strike and the Geran-type drone that had forced her country to close its airspace the day before, and said the events show Ukraine needs more air defense.

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The pattern, and Moldova's empty sky

Russia has hit at least five checkpoints on Ukraine's western borders since late August, four of them facing Moldova and one facing Romania, and the drone that struck the Kotlovyna crossing on 20 August flew in through Moldovan airspace. Euromaidan Press has covered part of that campaign, including burned food cargo near the Giurgiulești crossing in August. The State Border Guard Service has called such strikes an act of terrorism, because people are present at the crossings when they are hit.

In the air, Moldova can do little. It is still buying its first serious air defenses, so it restricts airspace and waits while Romania scrambles jets against the drones that reach its side. It logged three airspace breaches in nine days in August, and more than 100 drones were detected near Romania in four days that month.

Ukraine has four potential interceptor systems that could shoot down Russia’s increasingly common jet-powered Geran attack drones, Ukrainian Defense Minister Yevhen Khmara said on 30 August, according to Suspilne.

Russia has sharply increased its use of the faster drones against Ukrainian cities, causing major damage to civilian infrastructure and many civilian casualties. The attacks are putting near-unprecedented strain on Ukraine’s air defenses.

All four interceptor systems have undergone field testing, Khmara said. Ukraine now aims to bring them to the required level as quickly as possible and scale production to thousands of units.

“The search for countermeasures against jet-powered drones continues,” Khmara told journalists, according to Suspilne. “There are already four potential interceptors that can shoot down jet-powered ‘Shaheds.’ Field tests have already been conducted on them.”

Russia is rapidly expanding Geran attacks

Russia's Gerans are jet-powered adaptations of the Iranian-designed Shahed attack drones that Russia has produced domestically throughout the full-scale war. The faster Geran variants give Ukrainian air defenses less time to detect and engage them.

Ukrainian defense technology adviser Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov said Russia used more than 2,500 jet-powered Gerans against Ukraine in August, up from about 1,500 in July.

He also said the drones are being launched against Ukraine almost directly from Russian factories, highlighting the rapid expansion of their production and use.

Zelenskyy calls for faster production

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made countering the Gerans a priority as Russia sustains repeated attacks on Ukrainian cities.

At a 28 August meeting of Ukraine’s military leadership, Zelenskyy said the country needed to maximize domestic weapons production, with the immediate focus on defending against jet-powered Gerans and increasing Ukraine’s own long-range strikes against Russia.

“[The] main thing is our defense against jet-powered ‘Shaheds,’” Zelenskyy said in his evening address.

He said Russia had adopted a tactic of keeping Kyiv and other cities under repeated air raid alerts, with Gerans reaching the capital as well as cities including Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia.

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“All our means of countering [them] are already being used,” Zelenskyy said, adding that Ukraine needs a significant acceleration in production of interceptors specifically designed for the jet-powered drones.

Khmara said the four potential interceptors are now at the field-testing stage, with the next step being to bring them into production at a scale of thousands of units.

For Ukraine, that scale is critical. The country must defend a large territory against increasingly large Russian drone barrages while also preserving limited air-defense resources for ballistic and other missiles that require more advanced interceptors.

Ukraine's cheap interceptor drones have been knocking Russia's nightly attackers out of the sky, so Russia has now bolted a jammer onto some of its own drones to blind them, according to Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov, an adviser to Ukraine's President on defense technology. He examined the system, found in drone wreckage, and mapped how it strikes back at the interceptor sent to hunt it.

Russia batters Ukrainian cities with long-range drones most nights, and Ukraine has leaned on a cheap shield—drones costing a few thousand dollars—instead of burning through far pricier missiles. Anything that dulls that shield pushes the cost of defending the sky back up.

A jammer that waits for the interceptor

The unit rides on a Geran, Russia's version of the Iranian Shahed one-way drone. It listens for the video signal an approaching Ukrainian interceptor beams back to its pilot. Its receiver reads the interceptor's working frequency, then orders a transmitter to bury that same channel in noise, Beskrestnov found.

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By his first estimate, the jammer's signal runs about five times stronger than the interceptor's video link—enough to wipe the picture and any chance of steering the drone onto its target.

Seconds decide it

In Beskrestnov's account, the system detected a test transmitter and switched on jamming after about three seconds, and the feed cut out. The device stays nearly idle until a hunter comes close, then jumps to full power to smother the signal. It targets the ordinary analog video band around 5.8 gigahertz that many cheap interceptors still use.

Possible answers, include interceptors with terminal-guidance homing for the final stretch of flight, digital communication links, or transmitters set to non-standard frequencies.

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An old problem for Russia's drones

Russia has tried again and again to keep its one-way drones alive against Ukraine's defenses, including wiring jammers into some Shaheds earlier this year. Spending weight and power to protect a drone from a far cheaper interceptor shows how well those cheap drones work.