Ukraine has significantly weakened Russia’s artillery advantage, but now faces a growing threat from drones. As Forbes tech correspondent David Hambling reports, both sides are turning to drones for faster, more precise strikes—reshaping how the war is fought.

Ukrainian drone teams use radar systems like the US-made AN/TPQ-36 and locally produced acoustic sensors to detect firing positions. But drones are critical for pinpointing exact targets.

“Drones are essential for confirming the exact location of artillery,” said ‘Michael,’ commander of Ukraine’s Typhoon drone unit.

Precision strikes and rapid response

Visual observation with powerful zoom cameras is often the most effective way to locate Russian guns—especially while they’re firing.

“Muzzle flashes, smoke, or movement make them visible,” Michael explained.

Once a gun is confirmed, drones strike quickly—often faster than artillery. Though a drone travels at 100 mph, it can hit faster than a 700-mph shell because it homes in directly on the moving target. “With FPV drones… the first strike often hits,” said Michael. “With artillery, it often takes several rounds.”

Self-propelled guns are vulnerable when on the move, but even towed guns—though harder to destroy—can be taken out with precision hits to specific parts like the breech or towing vehicle. Videos from units like Birds of Magyar show drones hovering inches from targets before detonating.

Russian drones on the rise

Despite still having large artillery stockpiles, Russia is also rapidly expanding drone use.

“We’re observing several hundred FPV strikes per day,” said Michael.

Russia plans to produce 2 million FPV drones in 2025—nearly matching artillery shell output. Recon drones remain ever-present. “There’s no sign of a shortage,” Michael noted.

What’s notable is that drones were once seen as a Ukrainian fallback due to limited artillery. Now, even Russia—despite its superior stocks—is leaning heavily on drones for precision strikes.

A new kind of war

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi recently stated that Russia’s long-range firepower has been halved. But the transition from heavy artillery to high-precision drone warfare is redefining how the war is fought.

As Hambling writes: “The days of massed firepower will have passed. But the era of massed precision drone strikes will just be beginning.”

Ukraine is only in the first episode of the first season of the drone war, warns Mariia Berlinska, head of the Center for Aerial Reconnaissance Support, Texty reports. 

Meanwhile, Russian forces are focusing on eliminating Ukrainian drone operators at critical moments, when approaching or leaving positions. Moscow’s troops also set deadly drone ambushes at road intersections that explode as soon as our troops get close.

“UAV crews are everything to us. They cover the infantry. They cause up to 90% of enemy losses,” explains Mariia Berlinska.

She adds that “priority should be given to destroying what destroys you best.”

Countering Moscow’s attacks is complicated by the lack of a unified tactic, but one approach is drones against drones – Ukrainian ground robots damage enemy fiber optic cables, causing a loss of control over enemy drones. Also, “Maviks” drop grenades or nets on enemy drones, while FPV drones can crash into foes like kamikazes.

Berlinska emphasizes: “Before sending soldiers anywhere, you must always check everything with drones and destroy Russian unmanned aerial vehicles to avoid human losses.”

Earlier, The Defense Post published a top 100 global companies specializing in drone development for air, land, and sea applications. Three Ukrainian companies made it to the list. 

Russian forces launched a mechanized offensive near Toretsk on 17 June using armored and motorized vehicles, signaling a possible shift in operational focus amid ongoing equipment shortages, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported.

ISW’s 18 June report mentions Russia’s advances in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts and near Donetsk Oblast’s Chasiv Yar and Toretsk.

Assault near Yablunivka with armored and motorized vehicles

ISW cited geolocated footage from 17 June showing Russian troops carrying out a mechanized assault west of Yablunivka, which lies west of Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast. The footage confirmed the presence of at least three armored vehicles and four motorized units, likely all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), in the assault.

Reinforced assault near Kostiantynivka repelled by Ukrainian forces

On 18 June, Ukrainian military observer Yuriy Butusov reported that a reinforced company-sized Russian assault near Kostiantynivka ended in failure. Ukrainian defenders reportedly destroyed 15 heavy armored vehicles and eight motorized vehicles during the clash. 

Russian airstrikes intensify on Ukrainian second defensive line northeast of Pokrovsk

Decline in Russian mechanized assaults since winter 2024–2025

According to ISW, Russian forces have decreased the frequency of mechanized assaults since Winter 2024–2025. This change likely stems from increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian drone operations and a dwindling Russian supply of armored vehicles.

ISW: Russia slows tank reserve use, turns to motorcycles and ATVs amid drone threats

As traditional tank reserves diminish, ISW observed that Russian forces increasingly rely on civilian vehicles, ATVs, and motorcycles. In April 2025, the Russian Ministry of Defense began formal efforts to integrate motorcycles into offensive tactics. These changes highlight growing logistical limitations for Russian mechanized units.

“Russian mechanized assaults in the Toretsk direction may indicate that the Russian military command intends to prioritize this sector of the front,” ISW wrote.

Russia’s consumption of its pre-war Soviet-era tank stores “appears to be slowing,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as Moscow increasingly shifts to using motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Shift in equipment usage linked to depleted reserves

On 16 June, ISW cited a social media source that analyzes satellite imagery of Russian military depots. This source assessed that, as of a recent but unspecified date, Russia retained 46% of its pre-war tank reserves, 42% of its infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) reserves, and 48% of its armored personnel carrier (APC) reserves.

The data reflects only a modest decline from December 2024, when the same source assessed Russia had 47% of tanks, 52% of IFVs, and 45% of APCs still in storage. The adjusted figures stem from an update made on 15 June, when the source revised Russia’s original pre-war equipment estimates—adding 241 tanks, 174 IFVs, and 687 APCs—affecting percentage shifts accordingly.

The same source reported that most vehicle reserves have been withdrawn from eight key Russian depots. Based on this trend, the source concluded that Russia is likely to exhaust its remaining armored reserves by the end of 2025.

Surge in equipment activity near Finland

Satellite imagery also revealed what the source called a “dramatic” increase in nearly all types of military equipment deployed to a Russian base near Petrozavodsk, in the Republic of Karelia. This location lies approximately 373 kilometers from the Finnish border.

However, the source acknowledged that Russia may still hold additional vehicles in covered storage not visible via satellite surveillance, according to ISW.

The Wall Street Journal reported on 27 April that a senior Finnish military official claimed Russia is sending “almost none” of its newly manufactured tanks to Ukraine. 

Frontline use of motorcycles and buggies grows

ISW noted that the slowing consumption of tank reserves aligns with an observed increase in the use of motorcycles and buggies on the Ukrainian frontline. Since late fall 2024, Russian troops have employed these unarmored civilian vehicles more frequently, especially in contested “gray zones” shaped by Ukrainian and Russian drone activity.

Combat footage reviewed by ISW confirms this shift, with lighter and faster vehicles used to counter the vulnerability of traditional armored units to drone strikes. The think tank previously linked this trend to the heavy armored vehicle losses sustained by Russian forces in late 2023 and 2024.

Tactical gains come at high cost

While these adaptations have allowed Russian troops to make minor tactical advances, ISW emphasized they come at the expense of significant infantry losses. 

“ISW previously assessed that Russian armored vehicle losses are unsustainable and are undermining Russia’s ability to sustain a protracted high-intensity war, but it remains unclear if Russia’s increased reliance on motorcycles and buggies will be sufficient to offset these losses in the medium- to long-term,” the think tank wrote.

Russian forces have captured the village of Kostiantynivka in northern Sumy Oblast — not to be confused with the strategic town of the same name in Donetsk Oblast — and are intensifying multi-axis assaults toward Sumy City, according to Ukrainian and Western sources.

Expanding the northern frontline

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on 2 June, Russian troops are attempting to widen the northern Sumy Oblast frontline via three axes north and northeast of Sumy City. Geolocated footage confirmed recent Russian movements near Andriivka and Yablunivka. Russian milbloggers claimed that Oleksiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Kindrativka had been seized, with troops pushing into northern Andriivka, west of Yablunivka, and toward Kostyantynivka.

Elements of Russia’s 18th Motorized Rifle Division and 177th Naval Infantry Regiment are reportedly operating in the area, alongside airborne regiments from the 76th VDV Division. Military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted that the 752nd Regiment and 200th Brigade were recently redeployed from Lyman and Chasiv Yar to bolster forces in Sumy Oblast.

SBU hits Crimean bridge underwater in third major strike, video shows massive blast (updated)

Russia’s strategic goals near Sumy

ISW notes that Moscow aims to approach the Khotin-Khrapivshchyna line, roughly 12–15 km from Sumy, placing the city within tube artillery range. The reported use of drones and artillery strikes is likely part of preparations for a potential offensive on Sumy City. However, ISW assesses that Russian forces are unlikely to capture the city in the near term.

Russia kills civilians in central Sumy with Tornado-S cluster munitions. “Hypersonic” Kinzhal hits near Mykolaiv (updated)

DeepState and Suspilne confirm ground situation

Citing analysts of the Ukrainian group Deep State, monitoring the frontline situation, Suspilne reported that Russian forces occupied Volodymyrivka and Kostiantynivka and made advances in Oleksiivka, with portions still in a grey zone. Ukrainian Border Guard Service spokesman Andrii Demchenko identified Yunakivka and Khotin as key targets. He warned that if Russian forces manage to move artillery closer, threats to Sumy will intensify.

Military expert Pavlo Narozhny told Suspilne that the push toward Yunakivka aims to cut off Ukrainian supply lines from the Sumy-Yunakivka-Sudzha highway, which supports troops on the border and in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Narozhny said Yunakivka offers intact infrastructure suitable for Russian consolidation and future advances.

Ukrainian positions under pressure from Russian “meat-wave assaults”

Fighting continues near Bilovody and Loknya, with attempted incursions into Yablunivka. Deep State co-founder Ruslan Mykula told Suspilne Russian forces were repelled in some villages but remain focused on isolating Yunakivka from the west.

Narozhny also described earlier attempts to sever logistics using drones near Novenke and claimed Russian forces now push through small villages like Volodymyrivka. He emphasized that their main objective remains Yunakivka, a staging ground for further operations toward Sumy.

Russia tries to break through to northern Ukraine’s Sumy city amid ceasefire talks

A combat medic anonymously told Suspilne that enemy drone and equipment superiority complicates evacuations and supply runs. A frontline sergeant described Russia’s tactic as “meat assaults,” sending successive small units using motorcycles and ATVs. Survivors regroup and continue advancing through tree lines and villages.

Threat level and troop presence

Narozhny estimated around 60,000 Russian troops are now deployed along the border, posing a significant but not yet critical threat. He said Ukraine must maintain 20,000–30,000 troops in the area due to the length of the frontline.

Zelenskyy: 50,000 Russian troops mass near Sumy bordering Russia’s Kursk for new offensive

Former intelligence chief Mykola Malomuzh stated that the current Russian grouping had earlier pushed Ukrainians from Kursk Oblast and now aims to secure new positions for potential strikes on Sumy. He said the “buffer zone” narrative masks broader offensive ambitions. Ukrainian defenses are reportedly holding due to well-fortified positions developed over time.

Narozhny also pointed to the forest between Yunakivka and Sumy as a major obstacle. He compared it to the Serebryanskyi forest in Luhansk Oblast, where Russian troops remain stalled after two years.

Russia occupies four empty border villages in Sumy Oblast

Territory under Russian control

As of 2 June, Russian troops controlled around 125 square kilometers of northern Sumy Oblast, with another 70 km² in the grey zone, according to Deep State. Villages under Russian control also include Novenke, Basivka, Veselivka, and Zhuravka.

Overnight on 3 June, DeepState reported that Russian forces had captured Kostiantynivka in Sumy Oblast. The status of Kindrativka, Vodolaha, and Oleksiivka remains under clarification. DeepState noted that “the situation continues to deteriorate due to constant enemy pressure and large infantry numbers,” adding that “after targeting enemy concentrations, new waves rush in so fast that our forces struggle to destroy them in time.”

Russia’s Sumy ambitions unlikely to succeed soon, says ISW

Related:

• Russian motorcycle units storm Ukrainian border villages seeking Sumy buffer zone in new offensive
• Russia tries to break through to northern Ukraine’s Sumy city amid ceasefire talks
• Russian drone blows up civilian shuttle bus, leaving nine dead in Sumy border town
• Russia bombs Sumy Oblast on first day of its own declared ceasefire