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  • ✇Euromaidan Press
  • G7 ministers convene in Canada to discuss stalled Trump peace efforts, trade, and Russian escalation
    Foreign ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) nations convened in Niagara-on-the-Lake, Canada, on 11-12 November 2025, for tense discussions on global security. The talks are dominated by Russia's escalating war in Ukraine, stalled US-led peace initiatives, and growing trade frictions within the alliance. The gathering comes as the G7 confronts a dual challenge: maintaining a united front against Russian aggression while navigating sharp internal divisions over U
     

G7 ministers convene in Canada to discuss stalled Trump peace efforts, trade, and Russian escalation

12 novembre 2025 à 07:48

Nine foreign ministers from G7 nations and EU standing in formal group photo against teal backdrop with G7 2025 Kananaskis logo and mountain graphics at Niagara Foreign Ministers' Meeting

Foreign ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) nations convened in Niagara-on-the-Lake, Canada, on 11-12 November 2025, for tense discussions on global security.

The talks are dominated by Russia's escalating war in Ukraine, stalled US-led peace initiatives, and growing trade frictions within the alliance.

The gathering comes as the G7 confronts a dual challenge: maintaining a united front against Russian aggression while navigating sharp internal divisions over US trade policies and defense spending demands.

Divisions over Ukraine and US peace efforts

The summit opened amid clear divisions on how to handle the war in Ukraine. Most G7 members have adopted a tougher line on Russia than US President Donald Trump, who has prioritized his own peace proposals. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stated before the meeting that Russia's "continuing war of aggression against Ukraine" challenges global freedom and security, requiring a united G7 front.

According to a report from Euronews, European allies are particularly concerned about uncertainty over US efforts to end the war, as well as a separate US-brokered ceasefire plan in Gaza that is reportedly faltering.

The German foreign minister emphasized that his country is providing an additional €40 million to help Ukraine endure another winter, specifically to counter Russia's "targeted terror attacks on the civilian gas and heat supply." This financial support directly translates into tangible resilience, helping Kyiv maintain civilian morale and infrastructure stability—a strategic goal to prevent Russia from breaking the country's spirit.

Trade tensions and defense spending

The talks were also marked by strained relations over US trade policy. As reported by The Associated Press, President Trump's imposition of tariffs on Canadian imports has created friction with the host nation. This economic pressure is coupled with Trump's demand that NATO partners, including all G7 members except Japan, spend 5% of their GDP on defense.

The AP noted that Canada and Italy are the furthest from this goal, though Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand stated Canada plans to reach the target by 2035. In a social media post, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio framed the US position, stating the focus is on "putting the safety and security of Americans FIRST."

Indo-Pacific and critical minerals

While Ukraine and trade dominated, the ministers also addressed long-term strategic challenges, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Kyodo News reported that Japan's new Foreign Minister, Toshimitsu Motegi, planned to "bring an Indo-Pacific perspective into G7 discussions and advance concrete cooperation."

A central part of this strategy is a G7 initiative to establish alternative supply chains for critical minerals to diversify away from China’s market dominance. This effort is a direct attempt to bolster the G7's economic and defense security by mitigating reliance on geopolitical competitors, a crucial step in the world's current volatile geopolitical situation.

  • ✇Euromaidan Press
  • Zelenskyy vows to block Russian oil to Hungary — Hungary’s MOL says it can already go 80% non-Russian
    Ukraine’s President said halting Russian oil exports to Hungary is inevitable. Meanwhile, after Hungary had spent months insisting that Russian oil supplies were irreplaceable, Hungary's sole refiner now says it can receive 80% of crude from non-Russian sources. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Hungary—Moscow's ally in the EU—increased its purchases of Russian oil and now imports around 90% of its crude from Moscow. Budapest also obtained temporary r
     

Zelenskyy vows to block Russian oil to Hungary — Hungary’s MOL says it can already go 80% non-Russian

7 novembre 2025 à 14:54

zelenskyy vows block russian oil hungary — hungary’s mol says can already go 80% non-russian · post druzhba pipeline aspeniaonlineit druzhba-pipeline-map ukraine’s president said halting exports inevitable meanwhile after had

Ukraine’s President said halting Russian oil exports to Hungary is inevitable. Meanwhile, after Hungary had spent months insisting that Russian oil supplies were irreplaceable, Hungary's sole refiner now says it can receive 80% of crude from non-Russian sources.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Hungary—Moscow's ally in the EU—increased its purchases of Russian oil and now imports around 90% of its crude from Moscow. Budapest also obtained temporary relief from European Union sanctions. Russia's gas and oil export revenues contribute to sustaining Russia's all-out war in Ukraine.

Zelenskyy says Hungary will not receive Russian oil for long

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will stop Russian oil from reaching Hungary, though it cannot happen immediately due to various dependencies. He spoke following a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff on 7 November, Liga reported.

We can’t allow Russians to keep making money on energy,” Zelenskyy said. “Even where they twist our arms through various contracts or obligations, we’ll still find a way to make sure Russian oil disappears from Europe. [...] We won’t let the Russians sell oil there. It’s a matter of time. We can’t do it today because there are many different dependencies in this puzzle, but we’ll still complete the picture.

The agreement on Russian oil transit through Ukraine remains in force until 1 January 2030. In 2019, Ukrtransnafta and Russia’s Transneft signed a 10-year extension, effective from 1 January 2020. Despite Russia’s full-scale invasion that began in 2022, Ukraine has not terminated the contract for reasons that remain unclear. The Druzhba pipeline, which delivers Russian crude to Hungary, Slovakia, and other EU countries, crosses Ukrainian territory — and Ukraine could have stopped the flow at any point.

He also commented on Hungary PM Viktor Orbán’s attempts to block Ukraine’s European Union accession.

“[Russians] couldn’t do it. If he thinks delaying it by six months will stop Ukraine, then no, it won’t,” the President said.

MOL says 80% of crude can come from non-Russian sources

Hungarian oil company Mol said on the same day it can meet about 80% of its supply needs using crude delivered through Croatia’s Adriatic pipeline. The statement appeared in the company’s earnings report, a few hours before Orbán’s scheduled meeting with Trump at the White House, where Hungary's leader aimed to secure an exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil, Bloomberg reported

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Mol's statement marks a shift from Hungary's sole refiner previous position, as both the company and Orbán—Russian President Vladimir Putin's open ally—had repeatedly said Hungary had no alternative to Russian supplies due to its landlocked geography.

Mol operates refineries in Hungary and Slovakia. It stated that “should the crude flows via the Druzhba pipeline drop significantly, Mol can increase its utilization of the Adriatic pipeline and supply ca. 80% of its landlocked refineries’ intake, although entailing higher technical risks and logistics costs.”

Mol said it is “cautiously progressing” with upgrades at its refineries in Hungary and Slovakia to expand their ability to process non-Russian crude.

The EU plans to phase out all Russian energy imports after 2027.
  • ✇Euromaidan Press
  • Czechia may cut Ukraine aid under Babiš-led government, incoming foreign minister says
    Amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Czech Republic—Ukraine's major ally in the EU—may reduce its military assistance to Kyiv under the new government forming around presumptive Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, according to Politico. Czechia may shift from arms to aid In his first international interview, Filip Turek — a former MEP from the far-right Motorists party and likely to become the next foreign minister — said Prague will maintain its NATO commitments an
     

Czechia may cut Ukraine aid under Babiš-led government, incoming foreign minister says

6 novembre 2025 à 08:29

czechia cut ukraine aid under babiš-led government incoming foreign minister says · post filip turek european parliament strasbourg 2025 ep-183026a_turek_portrait amid ongoing russian invasion czech republic—ukraine's major ally eu—may reduce

Amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Czech Republic—Ukraine's major ally in the EU—may reduce its military assistance to Kyiv under the new government forming around presumptive Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, according to Politico.

Czechia may shift from arms to aid

In his first international interview, Filip Turek — a former MEP from the far-right Motorists party and likely to become the next foreign minister — said Prague will maintain its NATO commitments and respect for international law. But he emphasized that the government will "prioritize diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine" and "mitigate risks of conflict in Europe, shifting from military aid funded by the national budget to humanitarian support and focusing on Czech security needs."

The so-called “diplomatic efforts” pushed forward by US President Donald Trump since taking office in January exist only because he insists on them, even though Russia keeps demanding Ukraine’s de facto capitulation and believes it is winning the war.

He presented this as a shift away from direct involvement, stating the goal was to avoid escalation that might threaten Czechia’s energy supply or "economic stability."  

Turek did not announce immediate changes in Czechia’s stance on Russia, but pointed to a broader focus on sovereignty and non-intervention. He said this signaled a so-called “cautious, interest-based approach,” echoing the position of Hungarian authorities, who have expressed hope that Prague will become an ally in resisting EU efforts to maintain strong military backing for Ukraine.

One of Russia’s key export revenue streams — helping bankroll its invasion of Ukraine — is oil and gas. Hungary remains its top buyer within the EU. Now, Czechia’s incoming government appears ready to align with Budapest in indirectly financing Russia’s aggression.

Controversy follows Turek’s appointment

Politico noted that Turek’s expected appointment has already sparked domestic controversy. He has faced criticism for allegedly posting racist, sexist, and homophobic messages on Facebook. Turek denies the accusations and is pursuing legal action. Another figure from the Motorists party, Petr Macinka, tapped for the post of environment minister, has also drawn scrutiny. Macinka previously called human-caused climate change “pure propaganda.”

Czech Republic plans to abandon Ukraine after delivering 850,000 shells as Russian intimidation fractures EU unity

5 novembre 2025 à 12:23

Alaska Ukraine

Prague, which supplied Ukraine with 850,000 large-caliber shells in 2025 under the so-called “Czech Initiative,” has sharply changed its position on aid to Kyiv following the election victory of the right-wing populist ANO movement led by Andrej Babiš, Politico reports.

The withdrawal of military support comes amid a new wave of drone attacks on EU countries, which have intensified this autumn following Russia’s strike on Poland. This growing sense of insecurity is playing directly into the Kremlin’s hands by discouraging aid to Ukraine. 

Throughout his campaign, Babiš criticized Western military assistance to Ukraine and emphasized the need for neutrality, effectively arguing that Kyiv should be left to face Russian aggression on its own.

The end of the pro-Ukraine consensus

Filip Turek, an ultranationalist politician expected to become the next Czech foreign minister, stated that his government will uphold the country’s NATO commitments and international law but will “prioritize diplomatic efforts” to end the war and shift from military to humanitarian aid, focusing instead on “Czech security needs.”

At the same time, Russia has shown no sign of seeking peace. In 2025, Moscow intensified its attacks, carried out its first-ever strike on a NATO member. Supreme Allied Commander Europe Alexus Grynkewich warned that the US and its European allies likely have only a year and a half to prepare for a potential global military conflict with China and Russia.
 

Prague seeks “neutrality” over backing Kyiv

Turek insists that Prague’s official stance on Russia “will not change,” yet the new government plans to emphasize sovereignty and non-interference, aiming to “avoid escalation that could threaten the Czech Republic’s energy security or economic stability.”

Europe has already pursued a policy of appeasement once, by handing over Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland to Nazi Germany in 1938 under the Munich Agreement. That decision effectively encouraged Adolf Hitler to launch further aggression.

This marks a potential pivot from Prague’s active leadership in European support for Ukraine to that of a neutral observer, or even a restraining voice within the EU.

Turek’s rhetoric echoes that of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, whose government systematically blocks EU aid initiatives for Ukraine. Brussels officials are already referring to Prague as a potential new ally for Orbán, one that may advocate for a ceasefire rather than supporting Ukraine's victory.

  • ✇Euromaidan Press
  • China blocks Ukraine’s last drone supply route after flooding Russia with the same parts
    China now blocks NATO allies from supplying Ukraine with drone components, closing workarounds Kyiv used to sustain its drone warfare against Russia, according to German news outlet ntv. Ukraine’s ability to strike deep inside Russia faces a countdown. The country’s drone industry depends on Chinese engines, batteries, and flight controllers for roughly 60% of components—and Beijing just cut off the Baltic and Polish supply routes that provided them.Yurii Lomikov
     

China blocks Ukraine’s last drone supply route after flooding Russia with the same parts

29 octobre 2025 à 12:39

wang yi and kaja kallas

China now blocks NATO allies from supplying Ukraine with drone components, closing workarounds Kyiv used to sustain its drone warfare against Russia, according to German news outlet ntv.

Ukraine’s ability to strike deep inside Russia faces a countdown.

The country’s drone industry depends on Chinese engines, batteries, and flight controllers for roughly 60% of components—and Beijing just cut off the Baltic and Polish supply routes that provided them.

Yurii Lomikovskyi, co-founder of the defense industry network Iron, told ntv on 28 October that Beijing began prohibiting sales to Baltic states and Poland after determining these countries funnel components to Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces use these drones to hit Russian logistics hubs and ammunition depots hundreds of kilometers inside Russian territory—operations that place Moscow “under pressure not only militarily, but above all socially, economically and politically,” according to military analyst Hendrik Remmel from the German Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies.

Chinese contradictions

The restrictions align with Beijing’s strategic calculus, which it revealed to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas in July. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told her then that China could not afford a Russian defeat because the United States would then shift its full attention to Beijing.

China’s actions contradict its public denials of supporting Russia’s war effort.

In August alone, Russia received 328,000 miles of fiber-optic cable from China while Ukraine received just 72 miles, The Washington Post reported in October.

By early 2025, 80% of electronics in Russian drones came from Chinese sources, according to NATO’s assessment. Austrian military analyst Markus Reisner identified Chinese Telefly turbojet engines in Russia’s new glide bombs, which can strike targets from 200 kilometers away.

Lomikovskyi sees the solution in accelerated European investment in local production capacity. “Why do we source so much from China? Because China can deliver at scale—and cheaper than anything we produce locally or can buy from our Western partners,” he said.

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  • ✇Euromaidan Press
  • Hungary plots anti-Ukraine axis with Slovakia and Czechia within the EU
    Hungary is seeking to create a Ukraine-skeptic alliance within the EU, aligning with political forces in Czechia and Slovakia. Pro-Russian Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s inner circle is pushing to reshape regional cooperation in a way that could stall Brussels’ support for Ukraine, Politico reports. Amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, Hungary under Viktor Orbán has repeatedly blocked or delayed EU initiatives to provide aid to Kyiv. While preserving clo
     

Hungary plots anti-Ukraine axis with Slovakia and Czechia within the EU

28 octobre 2025 à 05:31

hungary plots anti-ukraine axis slovakia czechia within eu · post left right robert fico viktor orbán andrej babiš during visegrad group summit 2023 profimedia irozhlascz kikoti_230609-170816_jgr ukraine news ukrainian reports

Hungary is seeking to create a Ukraine-skeptic alliance within the EU, aligning with political forces in Czechia and Slovakia. Pro-Russian Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s inner circle is pushing to reshape regional cooperation in a way that could stall Brussels’ support for Ukraine, Politico reports.

Amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, Hungary under Viktor Orbán has repeatedly blocked or delayed EU initiatives to provide aid to Kyiv. While preserving close ties with Moscow, Orbán portrays continued European support for Ukraine’s defense as allegedly working against peace, implying that peace means Ukraine's capitulation to Russia.

Hungary aims to form anti-Ukraine alliance with Czechia and Slovakia

Orbán is working to form a political bloc inside the EU with Czechia and Slovakia, according to his political director Balázs Orbán. The plan involves cooperation with Czech populist leader Andrej Babiš and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, both of whom have expressed skepticism over continued European aid to Ukraine.

The political director told Politico the group would aim to coordinate ahead of EU Council summits and potentially act as a joint force to shape the bloc’s position. While the alliance remains informal for now, Hungary hopes it will grow stronger over time.

Echoes of the past: from the Visegrád 4 to a new V3

This would not be the first time such an alliance emerged in Central Europe. During the 2015 migration crisis, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia, and Poland formed the so-called Visegrád 4 (V4), opposing mandatory relocation of migrants and promoting hardline border policies. At the time, the alliance was led by then-Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and coordinated closely on social and migration issues.

But after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the group fractured. Poland became a key backer of Ukraine, while Hungary took the opposite stance. The potential new formation would exclude Poland, whose current Prime Minister Donald Tusk strongly supports Ukraine.

Instead, Hungary is looking to Fico and Babiš, who have both called for negotiations with Moscow and questioned sanctions against Russia. Still, concrete steps remain limited. Fico, re-elected in 2023, has not formally joined Orbán on any shared policies, and Babiš has yet to form a government after his recent election win.

Orbán’s ambitions reach beyond the Council

Balázs Orbán said Budapest aims to grow its influence in the European Parliament. Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party, part of the far-right Patriots for Europe group, is looking to build ties with other conservative or populist factions, including the European Conservatives and Reformists and the Europe of Sovereign Nations group. He also mentioned interest in “some leftist groups.”

  • ✇Euromaidan Press
  • Senate Republicans stall Russian sanctions bill — no vote until after possible Trump-Putin Budapest meeting
    US President Donald Trump’s possible upcoming meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin has prompted Senate Republicans to hold off on advancing new sanctions legislation against Russia, Politico reported. The delay follows a phone call between the two leaders and growing White House coordination with key Republican senators.  This legislative delay is part of a broader pattern in US policy toward Russia and Ukraine under Trump’s current term. Since taking office in Janu
     

Senate Republicans stall Russian sanctions bill — no vote until after possible Trump-Putin Budapest meeting

21 octobre 2025 à 15:18

united states capitol building home bicameral us congress consisting lower body house representatives upper senate

US President Donald Trump’s possible upcoming meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin has prompted Senate Republicans to hold off on advancing new sanctions legislation against Russia, Politico reported. The delay follows a phone call between the two leaders and growing White House coordination with key Republican senators. 

This legislative delay is part of a broader pattern in US policy toward Russia and Ukraine under Trump’s current term. Since taking office in January, the Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress have not passed any new sanctions against Russia. Additionally, Trump halted military aid to Ukraine, opting instead to shift toward equipment sales. At the same time, Trump pushes for a Kyiv-Moscow peace deal that would benefit Russia. 

Senate Republicans delay new sanctions effort as Trump prepares for Putin summit

Politico says the US Senate Majority Leader, Republican John Thune, said on 20 October that Republicans are holding off on a sanctions bill aimed at Russia and its energy partners until after President Trump meets with Putin in Budapest. Speaking to reporters, Thune explained that “they’re thinking that — see how this meeting goes in a couple of weeks with Putin.” He added that another Republican Senator, Lindsey Graham, who is leading the sanctions push in coordination with the White House, is waiting to assess the outcome of the upcoming meeting.

I think at least right now [Graham] is working with the White House trying to determine whether or not that meeting that happens in a couple of weeks will be a fruitful one,” Thune said.

Another "person granted anonymity to disclose internal discussions" confirmed to Politico that the sanctions bill is “effectively on ice” until the meeting takes place. Although Trump announced last week that the meeting with Putin would be held in Budapest, Hungary, he did not set a specific date.

The sanctions legislation had been gaining momentum, with over 80 cosponsors supporting measures to impose tariffs on countries that purchase Russian oil and gas and to introduce secondary sanctions targeting foreign companies involved in supporting Russia’s energy production. 

Trump call with Putin changed GOP strategy

Thune himself had previously stated on 17 October that it was time to move on the legislation. However, on the same day Thune voiced support for action, Trump held an extended phone call with Putin. Following the conversation, Trump began to question whether it was the right time to proceed with the sanctions bill. 

Despite the bill’s broad support — enough to override a potential veto — Republican senators are hesitant to act without explicit approval from the President. 

  • ✇Euromaidan Press
  • Zelenskyy announces reforms to build strong aerial shield and produce half Ukraine’s own weapons by 2025
    Ukraine sets clear goals. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has tasked Ukrainian military leadership with producing at least half of all weapons supplied to the frontlines by the end of 2025. He also announced a transformation of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) apparatus, aimed at strengthening efforts in this direction. The resident shared these updates following a meeting with NSDC Secretary Rustem Umerov, outlining three key priorities of Ukraine’s defense
     

Zelenskyy announces reforms to build strong aerial shield and produce half Ukraine’s own weapons by 2025

21 octobre 2025 à 12:07

Ukraine sets clear goals. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has tasked Ukrainian military leadership with producing at least half of all weapons supplied to the frontlines by the end of 2025.

He also announced a transformation of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) apparatus, aimed at strengthening efforts in this direction.

The resident shared these updates following a meeting with NSDC Secretary Rustem Umerov, outlining three key priorities of Ukraine’s defense policy.

Combat aviation becomes Ukraine’s strategic backbone

The top priority, Zelenskyy said, is strengthening the Ukrainian Air Forces.

“This is part of a strategy to create strong Air Forces capable of guaranteeing our state’s long-term security,” Zelenskyy stated.

New defense agreements are being prepared to expand the capabilities of Ukraine’s combat aviation.

Diplomacy and defense needs remain a critical front

The second priority is active diplomacy and aligning Ukraine’s defense requirements with international partners.

This week, meetings are planned with leaders of the European community and the Coalition of the Willing, where Ukraine will present an updated list of requests, including:

  • air defense systems;
  • the contents of defense support packages;
  • equipment for restoring energy infrastructure after strikes;
  • coordination of sanctions policy.

NSDC restructuring aims to boost defense industry efficiency

The third priority focuses on strengthening the defense-industrial component and preparing for upcoming NSDC sessions.

“To fully meet defense needs, a transformation of the NSDC apparatus will be carried out,” Zelenskyy said.

  • ✇Coda Story
  • The Empire Game 2.0: Through Moscow’s Eyes
    Earlier this week, as the Iranian defense minister headed to Qingdao for a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, Donald Trump was basking in the spotlight at a NATO gathering in the Netherlands, claiming credit for brokering a Middle East truce. But beneath the headlines, one untold story was about who gets to shape the new world order, and how Russia, once a regional kingmaker, is now struggling to define its place. As old alliances crack, Russia is scrambling to shape a new global order. I
     

The Empire Game 2.0: Through Moscow’s Eyes

27 juin 2025 à 08:57

Earlier this week, as the Iranian defense minister headed to Qingdao for a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, Donald Trump was basking in the spotlight at a NATO gathering in the Netherlands, claiming credit for brokering a Middle East truce. But beneath the headlines, one untold story was about who gets to shape the new world order, and how Russia, once a regional kingmaker, is now struggling to define its place.

As old alliances crack, Russia is scrambling to shape a new global order. Its answer: an unexpected bold imperial narrative that promises stability but reveals deep anxieties about Moscow’s place in a world where legitimacy, history, and power are all being contested.

The Iranian defense minister’s trip to Qingdao - his first foreign visit since the ceasefire with Israel - was meant to signal solidarity within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a block that includes Russia, India, and Pakistan. But the SCO, despite its ambitions, could only muster a joint statement of “serious concern” over Middle East tensions when Iran was being bombed by Israel - a statement India refused to sign. This exposed the stark limits of alternative alliances and the growing difficulty of presenting a united front against the West. In Qingdao, Andrei Belousov, the Russian defense minister, warned of “worsening geopolitical tensions” and “signs of further deterioration,” a statement that’s hard to argue with.  

Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, Trump relished his role as global peacemaker, claiming credit for an uneasy Israel-Iran truce - a truce that Russia welcomed while being careful to credit Qatar for its diplomatic efforts. Russia itself reportedly played a supporting role alongside Oman and Egypt. But the real diplomatic heavy lifting was done by others - and Russia’s own leverage  was exposed as limited. 

Once the region’s indispensable power broker, Moscow found itself on the sidelines. Its influence with Tehran diminished, and its air defense systems in Iran—meant to deter Israeli and later American strikes—were exposed as ineffective. With Bashar al-Assad’s rule in Syria collapsed, the Kremlin is acutely aware it cannot afford to lose another major ally in the region. As long as the Iranian government stands, Russia can still claim to have a role to play, but its ability to project power in the Middle East is now more symbolic than real. The 12-day war put Russia in an awkward position. Iran, a key supplier of drones for Russia’s war in Ukraine, was unimpressed by Moscow’s lack of support during the crisis. Even after signing a 20-year pact in January, Russia offered little more than “grave concern” when the bombs started falling. Similarly to the SCO, BRICS, supposedly the alternative to Western alliances, could only issue a joint statement, revealing just how thin multipolarity is in practice.

Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin with the Iranian national flag in the background during a state visit by his Iranian counterpart. Evgenia Novozhenina/POOL/AFP via Getty Images.

Enter the new narrative spin

For years, Vladimir Putin has argued that the West’s “rules-based order” is little more than a tool for maintaining Western dominance and justifying double standards. His vision of multipolarity is not just anti-American rhetoric—it’s a deliberate strategy to appeal to countries disillusioned by Western interventions, broken promises, and the arrogance of those who claimed victory in the Cold War. Russia has worked to turn Western failures—from Iraq to Afghanistan, from Libya to the global financial crisis—into recruitment tools for its own vision of “civilizational diversity.” Multipolarity, in the Kremlin’s telling, is about giving every culture, every nation, a seat at the table, while quietly reserving the right to redraw the map and rewrite the rules when it suits Moscow’s interests.

For a time, this approach was paying off. Russia’s anti-colonial and multipolar rhetoric resonated well beyond its borders, particularly in the Global South and among those frustrated by Western hypocrisy. 

But across the periphery of Russia’s historical empire, from Central Asia to the Baltics, from the Caucasus to Ukraine and Georgia, Russia’s multipolar message is seen not as liberation but as yet another chapter in a centuries-long cycle of conquest, repression and forced assimilation - a reality that continues to define the struggle for self-determination across Russia’s former empire.  Here, Russia’s message of “sameness” has long served as a colonial tool, erasing languages, cultures, and identities in the name of imperial unity. 

The recent conflict in the Middle East has forced Moscow to adapt its “multipolarity” messaging yet again. As its limitations as a regional power became impossible to ignore, Russian state media and officials began to reframe the conversation—no longer just championing multipolarity, but openly embracing the language of empire. In this new narrative, ‘empire’ is recast not as a relic of oppression, but as a stabilizing force uniquely capable of imposing order on an unruly world. The pivot is as much about masking diminished leverage as it is about projecting confidence: if Moscow can no longer dictate outcomes, it can still claim the mantle of indispensable power by rewriting the very terms of global legitimacy.

As we peered into the abyss of World War III, Russian state media pivoted: suddenly, ‘empire’—long a slur—was rebranded as a stabilizing force in a chaotic world.

This rhetorical shift has been swift and striking. Where once the Kremlin denounced imperialism as a Western vice, Russian commentators now argue that empires are not only inevitable but necessary for stability. “Empires could return to world politics not only as dark shadows of the past. Empire may soon become a buzzword for discussing the direction in which the world’s political organization is heading,” wrote one Russian analyst. The message is clear: in an age of chaos and fractured alliances, only a strong imperial center—preferably Moscow—can guarantee order. But beneath the surface, this embrace of empire reveals as much uncertainty as ambition, exposing deep anxieties about Russia’s place in a world it can no longer control as it once did.

Inside Russia, this new imperial rhetoric is both a rallying cry and a reflection of unease. In recent weeks, influential analysts have argued that Iran’s restraint—its so-called “peacefulness”—only invited aggression, a warning that resonates with those who fear Russia could be next. Enter Alexander Dugin, the far-right philosopher often described as “Putin’s brain,” whose apocalyptic worldview has shaped much of the Kremlin’s confrontational posture. Dugin warns that if the U.S. and Israel can strike Tehran with impunity, nothing would stop them from finding a pretext to strike Moscow. This siege mentality, echoed by senior officials, is now being used to justify a strategy of escalation and deterrence at any cost.

Dugin’s views were echoed by Konstantin Kosachev, chair of the Russian parliamentary foreign affairs committee: “If you don’t want to be bombed by the West, arm yourself. Build deterrence. Go all the way—even to the point of developing weapons of mass destruction.”

But for all the talk of “victory,” by all sides post the 12-day war,  the outcomes remain ambiguous. Iran insists its nuclear ambitions are undimmed. While Israel and Trump’s team says Iran is further from a bomb than ever before – still, the facts are murky and the region is no closer to peace. As one Russian analyst remarked, the normalization of “phoney war” logic means that everyone is arming up, alliances are transactional, and the rules are made up as we go along.

If the only lesson of the 12-day war is that everyone must arm themselves to the teeth, we’re not just reliving the Cold War—we’re entering a new era of empire-building, where deterrence is everything and the lines between friend and foe are as blurred as ever.

In a world where old alliances crumble and new narratives emerge, the true battle, it seems, is not just over territory or military might, but over the stories that define power itself. Russia’s pivot to an imperial narrative reveals both its ambitions and its anxieties, highlighting a global order in flux where legitimacy is contested and the rules are rewritten in real time. Understanding this evolving empire game is essential to grasping the future of international relations and the fragile balance that holds the world together.

A version of this story was published in this week’s Coda Currents newsletter. Sign up here.

Research and additional reporting by Masho Lomashvili.

Why Did We Write This Story?

Because the world’s rules are being rewritten in real time. As the US flexes its military muscle and Moscow pivots from multipolarity to imperial nostalgia, we’re watching not just a contest of armies, but a battle over who gets to define legitimacy, history, and power itself. Russia’s new “empire” narrative isn’t just about the Kremlin’s ambitions—it’s a window into the anxieties and fractures shaping the next global order. At Coda, we believe understanding these narrative shifts is essential to seeing where the world is headed, and who stands to win—or lose—as the lines between friend and foe blur.

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  • ✇Made Not Found (by danah boyd)
  • Risks vs. Harms: Youth & Social Media
    Since the “social media is bad for teens” myth will not die, I keep having intense conversations with colleagues, journalists, and friends over what the research says and what it doesn’t. (Alice Marwick et. al put together a great little primer in light of the legislative moves.) Along the way, I’ve also started to recognize how slipperiness between two terms creates confusion — and political openings — and so I wanted to call them out in case this is helpful for others thinking about these issu
     

Risks vs. Harms: Youth & Social Media

8 octobre 2024 à 13:32
Risks vs. Harms: Youth & Social Media

Since the “social media is bad for teens” myth will not die, I keep having intense conversations with colleagues, journalists, and friends over what the research says and what it doesn’t. (Alice Marwick et. al put together a great little primer in light of the legislative moves.) Along the way, I’ve also started to recognize how slipperiness between two terms creates confusion — and political openings — and so I wanted to call them out in case this is helpful for others thinking about these issues.

In short, “Does social media harm teenagers?” is not the same question as “Can social media be risky for teenagers?”

The language of “harm” in this question is causal in nature. It is also legalistic. Lawyers look for “harms” to place blame on or otherwise regulate actants. By and large, in legal contexts, we talk about PersonA harming PersonB. As such, PersonA is to be held accountable. But when we get into product safety discussions, we also talk about how faulty design creates the conditions for people to be harmed due to intentional, malfeasant actions by the product designer. Making a product liability claim is much harder because it requires proving the link of harm and the intentionality to harm.

Risk is a different matter. Getting out of bed introduces risks into your life. Risk is something to identify and manage. Some environments introduce more potential risks and some actions reduce the risks. Risk management is a skill to develop. And while regulation can be used to reduce certain risks, it cannot eliminate them. And it can also backfire and create more risks. (This is the problem that María Angel and I have with techno-legal solutionism.)

Let’s unpack this a bit by shifting contexts and thinking about how we approach risks more generally.

Skiing is Risky.

Skiing is understood to be a risky sport. As we approach skiing season out here in the Rockies, I’m bracing myself for the uptick in crutches, knee wheelies, and people under 40 using the wheelchair services at the Denver airport. There is also a great deal of effort being put into trying to reduce the risk that someone will leave the slopes in this state. I’m fascinated by the care ski instructors take in trying to ensure that people who come to the mountains learn how to take care. There’s a whole program here for youngins designed to teach them a safety-first approach to skiing.

And there’s a whole host of messaging that will go out each day letting potential skiers know about the conditions. We will also get fear-mongering messages out here, with local news reporting on skiers doing stupid things and warnings of avalanches that too many folks will ignore. And there will be posters at the resorts telling people to not speed on the mountains because they might kill a kid. (I think these posters are more effective as scaring kids than convincing skiers to slow down.)

No matter what messaging goes out, people will still get hurt this season like they do every season. And so there are patrollers whose job it is to look for people in high-risk situations and medics who will be on hand to help people who have been injured. And there’s a whole apparatus structured to get them of the mountain and into long-term care.

Unless you’re off your rocker, you don’t just watch a few YouTube videos and throw yourself down a mountain on skis. People take care to learn how to manage the risks of skiing. Or they’re like me and take one look at that insanity and dream of a warm place by a fire or sitting in a hot tub instead of spending stupid amounts of money to introduce that kind of risk into their lives.

Crossing the Street is Risky.

The stark reality is that every social environment has risks. And one of the key parts of being socialized through childhood into adulthood is learning to assess and respond to risks.

Consider walking down the street in a busy city. As any NYC parent knows, there are countless near-heart attacks that occur when trying to teach a 2-year-old to stop at the corner of the sidewalk. But eventually they learn to stop. And eventually they learn to not bowl people over while riding their scooter down that sidewalk. And then the next stage begins — helping young people learn to look both ways before crossing the street, regardless of what is happening with the light, and convincing them to maintain constant awareness about their environment. And eventually that becomes so normal that you start to teach your child how to J-walk without getting a ticket. And eventually, the child turns into a teenager who wanders the city alone, J-walking with ease while blocking out all audio signals with their headphones. But then take that child — or an American adult — to a city like Hanoi and they’ll have to relearn how to cross a street because nothing one learns in NYC about crossing streets applies to Hanoi.

Is crossing the street risky? Of course. But there’s a lot we can do to make it less risky. Good urban design and functioning streetlights can really help, but they don’t make the risk disappear. And people can actually cross a street in Hanoi, even though I doubt anyone would praise the urban design of streets and there are no streetlights. While design can help, what really matters for navigating risk is rooted in socialization, education, and agency. Mixed into this is, of course, experience. The more that we experience crossing the street, the easier it gets, regardless of what you know about the rules. And still, the risk does not entirely disappear. People are still hit by cars while crossing the street every year.

The Risk of Social Media Can Be Reduced.

Can social media be risky for youth? Of course. So can school. So can friendship. So can the kitchen. So can navigating parents. Can social media be designed better? Absolutely. So can school. So can the kitchen. (So can parents?) Do we always know the best design interventions? No. Might those design interventions backfire? Yes.

Does that mean that we should give up trying to improve social media or other digital environments? Absolutely not. But we must also recognize that trying to cement design into law might backfire. And that, more generally, technologies’ risks cannot be managed by design alone.

Fixating on better urban design is pointless if we’re not doing the work to socialize and educate people into crossing digital streets responsibly. And when we age-gate and think that people can magically wake up on their 13th or 18th birthday and be suddenly able to navigate digital streets just because of how many cycles they took around the sun, we’re fools. Socialization and education are still essential, regardless of how old you are. (Psst to the old people: the September that never ended…)

In the United States, we have a bad habit of thinking that risks can be designed out of every system. I will never forget when I lived in Amsterdam in the 90s, and I remarked to a local about how odd I found it that there were no guardrails to prevent cars from falling into the canals when they were parking. His response was “you’re so American” which of course prompted me to say, “what does THAT mean?” He explained that, in the Netherlands, locals just learned not to drive their cars into the canals, but Americans expected there to be guardrails for everything so that they didn’t have to learn not to be stupid. He then noted out that every time he hears about a car ending up in the canal, it is always an American who put it there. Stupid Americans. (I took umbrage at this until, a few weeks later, I read a news story about a drunk American driving a rental into the canal.)

Better design is warranted, but it is not enough if the goal is risk reduction. Risk reduction requires socialization, education, and enough agency to build experience. Moreover, if we think that people will still get hurt, we should be creating digital patrols who are there to pick people up when they are hurt. (This is why I’ve always argued that “digital street outreach” would be very valuable.)

But What About Harms?

People certainly face risks when encountering any social environment, including social media. This then triggers the next question: Do some people experience harms through social media? Absolutely. But it’s important to acknowledge that most of these harms involve people using social media to harm others. It’s reasonable that they should be held accountable. It’s not reasonable to presume that you can design a system that allows people to interact in a manner where harms will never happen. As every school principal knows, you can’t solve bullying through the design of the physical building.

Returning to our earlier note on product liability, it is reasonable to ask if specific design choices of social media create the conditions for certain kinds of harms to be more likely — and for certain risks to be increased. Researchers have consistently found that bullying is more frequent and more egregious at school than on social media, even if it is more visible on the latter. This makes me wary of a product liability claim regarding social media and bullying. Moreover, it’s important to notice what schools have done in response to this problem. They’ve invested in social-emotional learning programs to strengthen resilience, improve bystander approaches, and build empathy. These interventions are making a huge difference, far more than building design. (If someone wants to tax social media companies to scale these interventions, have a field day.)

Of course, there are harms that I do think are product liability issues vis-a-vis social media. For example, I think that many privacy harms can be mitigated with a design approach that is privacy-by-default. I also think that regulations that mandate universal privacy protections would go a long way in helping people out. But the funny thing is that I don’t think that these harms are unique to children. These are harms that are experienced broadly. And I would argue that older folks tend to experience harms associated with privacy much more acutely.

But even if you think that children are especially vulnerable, I’d like to point out that while children might need a booster seat for the seatbelt to work, everyone would be better off if we put privacy seatbelts in place rather than just saying that kids can’t be in cars.

I have more complex feelings about the situations where we blame technology for societal harms. As I’ve argued for over a decade, the internet mirrors and magnifies the good, bad, and ugly. This includes bullying and harassment, but it also includes racism, xenophobia, sexism, homophobia, and anti-trans attitudes. I wish that these societal harms could be “fixed” by technology; that would be nice. But that is naive.

I get why parents don’t want to expose children to the uglier parts of the world. But if we want to raise children to be functioning adults, we also have to ensure that they are resilient. Besides, protecting children from the ills of society is a luxury that only a small segment of the population is able to enjoy. For example, in the US, Black parents rarely have the option of preventing their children from being exposed to racism. This is why white kids need to be educated to see and resist racism. Letting white kids live in “colorblind” la-la-land doesn’t enable racial justice. It lets racism fester and increases inequality.

As adults, we need to face the ugliness of society head on, with eyes wide open. And we need to intentionally help our children see that ugliness so that they can be agents of change. Social media does make this ugly side more visible, but avoiding social media doesn’t make it go away. Actively engaging young people as they are exposed to the world through dialogue allows them to be prepared to act. Turning on the spicket at a specific age does not.

I will admit that one thing that intrigues me is that many of those who propagate hate are especially interested in blocking children from technology for fear that allowing their children to be exposed to difference might make them more tolerant. (No, gender is not contagious, but developing a recognition that gender is socially and politically constructed — and fighting for a more just world — sure is.) There’s a long history of religious communities trying to isolate youth from kids of other faiths to maintain control.

There’s no doubt that media — including social media — exposes children to a much broader and more diverse world. Anyone who sees themselves as empowering their children to create a more just and equitable world should want to conscientiously help their children see and understand the complexity of the world we live in.

In the early days of social media, I was naive in thinking that just exposing people to people around the world to each other would fundamentally increase our collective tolerance. I had too much faith in people’s openness. I know now that this deterministic thinking was foolish. But I have also come to appreciate the importance of combining exposure with education and empathy.

Isolating people from difference doesn’t increase tolerance or appreciation. And it won’t help us solve the hardest problems in our world — starting with both inequity and ensuring our planet is livable for future generations. Instead, we need to help our children build the skills to live and work together.

Put another way, to raise children who can function in our complex world, we need to teach them how to cross the digital street safely. Skiing is optional.

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