Russia is already at Estonia’s gates. Tallinn may become the next target for Russia’s aggressive war because the Russians have several convenient pretexts for it, The Economist reports. 

For several years, Russia has been conducting a covert campaign of intimidation and destabilization against Estonia, using cyberattacks, undercover agents, sabotage, and legions of disinformation bots on social media.

NATO recognizes these risks and has been increasing its military presence in the region: currently, over 2,000 troops from allied countries are stationed in Estonia.

However, amid the reduction of American forces in Europe, Estonia could become the place where Russia first attempts to test the reliability of NATO’s Article 5 on collective defense. 

Between the 1950s and 1980s, the Kremlin resettled hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians to Estonia, and today they make up one-fifth of the country’s 1.4 million population. The largest number of them are living in the city of Narva, located right on the border with Russia. Nearly the entire population there is descended from Russian settlers.

More than 30 years later, Russians have shifted from a politically dominant group to a lower-class minority, though many in Narva still feel attached to the Soviet version of history.

Since the war in Ukraine began, Russian destabilizing efforts have intensified throughout Estonia. Last year, a sociology professor who seemed liberal was exposed as a Russian agent. In 2023, vandals damaged the cars of the Minister of Internal Affairs and the editor of a Russian-language news website.

At the same time, Russian attempts to recruit Russian speakers for minor sabotage through social media have found little support.

Russia recruits elderly in covert sabotage campaign across Ukraine and Europe

The war in Ukraine has united Estonians but divided the Russians living there. Some feel sympathy for their homeland, where many have relatives; some resent Estonian nationalism. Some are Putin supporters or simply wish for a brotherly alliance like in the old days. Others, especially younger people, warmly welcome Ukrainian refugees into their schools and communities.

Since 2022, the Estonian government has taken steps to isolate Estonia from Russia. It stopped issuing visas to Russian citizens, restricted Russian business activities, banned Russian TV channels from cable packages, and removed Soviet-era monuments. This year, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania disconnected their electricity grids from Russia.

Most of the well-known and most controversial Estonian residents holding Russian passports, who previously could vote in municipal elections, will no longer be able to do so after this year’s elections.

Ukraine must rebuild the Kakhovka Hydropower Plant. Ukrhydroenergo, the state enterprise that administers hydro power plants, has announced it is preparing to fully design a new complex as soon as circumstances permit, Suspilne reports. 

Its destruction was one of Russia’s largest environmental and energy-related war crimes, and its reconstruction is a strategic step toward energy independence and national security. 

“We are ready to begin restoration work as soon as the war ends, the area is de-occupied, and agreements allow it,” emphasizes Bohdan Sukhetskyi, Acting CEO of the company.

According to him, a 3D model of the Kakhovka Reservoir bed has already been created, communication routes laid out, and a temporary dam planned. But actual construction can only begin after de-occupation and demining.

“Ukraine needs the Kakhovka HPP… Our first task is to ensure a water supply for the entire country. The second, to balance the power system,” Sukhetskyi reveals.

The destroyed plant was part of the Dnipro cascade of hydropower stations, which efficiently uses every drop of water from Kyiv to the Black Sea. Without Kakhovka, shipping stops, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant cannot be cooled, and clean energy isn’t generated.

“The shipping corridor from the upper Dnipro to the Black Sea is currently non-operational… until we raise the water level,” the company head explains.

Following the dam explosion on 6 June 2023, 620 km² of land across four regions were flooded. 100,000 people were affected, at least 32 were killed, and damages totaled $1.5 billion.

Some analysts see it the act as a form of revenge against Kherson Oblast for resisting Russian occupation, and as a demonstration that Russia was willing to take drastic measures when unable to hold territory by force.