Russia is already at Estonia’s gates. Tallinn may become the next target for Russia’s aggressive war because the Russians have several convenient pretexts for it, The Economist reports. 

For several years, Russia has been conducting a covert campaign of intimidation and destabilization against Estonia, using cyberattacks, undercover agents, sabotage, and legions of disinformation bots on social media.

NATO recognizes these risks and has been increasing its military presence in the region: currently, over 2,000 troops from allied countries are stationed in Estonia.

However, amid the reduction of American forces in Europe, Estonia could become the place where Russia first attempts to test the reliability of NATO’s Article 5 on collective defense. 

Between the 1950s and 1980s, the Kremlin resettled hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians to Estonia, and today they make up one-fifth of the country’s 1.4 million population. The largest number of them are living in the city of Narva, located right on the border with Russia. Nearly the entire population there is descended from Russian settlers.

More than 30 years later, Russians have shifted from a politically dominant group to a lower-class minority, though many in Narva still feel attached to the Soviet version of history.

Since the war in Ukraine began, Russian destabilizing efforts have intensified throughout Estonia. Last year, a sociology professor who seemed liberal was exposed as a Russian agent. In 2023, vandals damaged the cars of the Minister of Internal Affairs and the editor of a Russian-language news website.

At the same time, Russian attempts to recruit Russian speakers for minor sabotage through social media have found little support.

Russia recruits elderly in covert sabotage campaign across Ukraine and Europe

The war in Ukraine has united Estonians but divided the Russians living there. Some feel sympathy for their homeland, where many have relatives; some resent Estonian nationalism. Some are Putin supporters or simply wish for a brotherly alliance like in the old days. Others, especially younger people, warmly welcome Ukrainian refugees into their schools and communities.

Since 2022, the Estonian government has taken steps to isolate Estonia from Russia. It stopped issuing visas to Russian citizens, restricted Russian business activities, banned Russian TV channels from cable packages, and removed Soviet-era monuments. This year, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania disconnected their electricity grids from Russia.

Most of the well-known and most controversial Estonian residents holding Russian passports, who previously could vote in municipal elections, will no longer be able to do so after this year’s elections.

Germany’s intelligence chief disclosed that Russia intends to challenge NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense pact, which states that an armed attack against one NATO member in Europe or North America is considered an attack against all members. 

“We are absolutely certain and have intelligence evidence confirming that Ukraine is just one stage on its path westward,” Kahl stated.

“They don’t need to send tanks for that,” Kahl added. “They just have to send ‘little green men’ to Estonia to defend the allegedly oppressed Russian minority.”

However, Kahl clarified that German intelligence does not anticipate conventional military operations involving large armored formations moving from east to west. This suggests Russia may pursue alternative methods, such as cyberattacks or energy coercion, to challenge NATO’s resolve.

Sinan Selen, deputy head of Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), reported escalating Russian cyber operations and sabotage activities targeting Western nations. According to Selen, Russian aggression in Ukraine has intensified pressure on German cyber defense and counterintelligence capabilities.

According to Kahl, Russia’s objectives include reversing NATO’s eastward expansion to 1990s boundaries, removing American military presence from Europe, and expanding Russian influence regardless of cost. The intelligence chief emphasized the need to counter these efforts immediately. Despite tensions, Kahl noted that German-American intelligence cooperation remains stable. 

Previous warnings of NATO-Russia conflict 

Earlier, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Russia could potentially attack NATO countries by 2029 or 2030 due to its rapid military industrialization and expansion of armed forces, which are expected to reach 1.5 million troops by 2026.

He highlighted that Russia currently produces more weapons and ammunition in a few months than all EU countries combined produce in a year, signaling a significant buildup. 

NATO intelligence sources told a Finnish newspaper that Russia is actively maintaining and updating plans for a potential multi-front offensive against NATO’s eastern flank, targeting Finland, Norway, and the Baltic states, with intelligence indicating it could amass up to 600,000 troops along these borders despite its main forces being engaged in Ukraine. 

NATO officials and intelligence sources, including Sweden’s Armed Forces Commander and US Vice Admiral Douglas Perry, assess a Russian attack as inevitable rather than hypothetical, emphasizing Russia’s willingness to accept massive casualties and use missile strikes on civilian targets, mirroring tactics used in Ukraine.