Ukrainian drones damaged a process pipeline, two butyl-rubber units, and a rectification (distillation) unit at Russia’s Tolyattikauchuk petrochemical plant on 24 October, Ukraine’s General Staff said on 26 October. The damage hits the production chain of solid rocket fuel for tactical and ballistic missiles, it added.

The strike was part of a string of Ukrainian hits on Russian plants over four days, most of which the General Staff links to missile production. Ukraine hit an electronics plant in Oryol on 23 October and struck a battery plant in Yelets on 25 October or the following night. The General Staff ties both to missiles: Oryol makes components for missiles Russia fires at Ukrainian cities, and Yelets makes batteries for Iskander-M systems. Then, overnight on 26 October, drones also went after Voronezhsintezkauchuk, another Russian synthetic-rubber plant. For Tolyattikauchuk, this is the third time this year that strikes have reached its butyl-rubber shops.

What Kyiv and Russian officials say

The General Staff first confirmed the strike on 24 October with a report of an explosion and fire near the plant. It said the plant makes synthetic rubbers, monomers, fractions, and high-octane gasoline additives, and that its synthetic rubbers are used in solid rocket fuel.

Meanwhile, Russian officials have not named the plant in their statements. However, Tolyatti Mayor Ilya Sukhikh claimed that industrial facilities were damaged and, citing preliminary data, that no one was killed or injured, Russian outlet Expert reported.

What OSINT channels report

Drones hit at least two production facilities, Ukrainian monitoring channel Exilenova+ said. One is the shop where isobutane is turned into isobutylene, a raw material for synthetic rubbers. The other is outdoor unit No. 2 in shop BK-4, which produces and purifies high-purity isobutylene for butyl rubber.

The damage could delay rubber output and the supply of feedstock for other processes, including solid rocket fuel. Tolyattikauchuk can make about 260,000 metric tons of synthetic rubber a year, OSINT-Varta data show.

Hit again and again

Tolyattikauchuk had come under fire before. Overnight on 4 April, about 10 drones reached the plant by various accounts. Footage showed fires at storage shops D-12 and D-1 and at the BK-2, BK-3, and BK-4 units, though more sites may have been hit, the analysts added. Ukrainian forces struck the plant again on 12 June, the General Staff confirmed.

Then, on 12 September, a strike set fires at the BK-2, BK-3, and BK-4 shops, an OSINT community Absolutely Reliable Source reported. Without those shops running steadily, the line that makes MTBE, a key high-octane gasoline additive, is cut, the channel noted.

Russia’s aircraft plants still turn out modern fighter-bombers and fighters, enough to partly cover its losses, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency HUR told Ukrainian news agency UNIAN, which published the reply on 23 October. Its older bombers are a different story. Russia has no serial production of new Tu-95s, Tu-22M3s, or Su-24s and keeps them flying through repairs and upgrades, so each one lost for good leaves a lasting gap, HUR said.

Ukraine’s Navy said its Neptune missiles hit six Su-34M bombers at Borisoglebsk airbase in Russia’s Voronezh Oblast overnight into 15 October. Zelenskyy later said four were destroyed and two damaged. The Su-34 is one of the jets that drop Russia’s glide bombs, heavy bombs fitted with wing-and-guidance kits, on Ukrainian positions and towns.

How fast Russia replaces its jets

Russia can probably deliver 10–15 Su-34s a year now, HUR estimated. Deliveries grew from eight in 2022 to 11 in 2023 and 12–14 in 2024. But the agency said that trend does not confirm the same pace today.

For the Su-35S fighter, HUR pointed to an average of about 11–12 a year in 2021–2025. It called that a rough benchmark, not an established 2026 output. Su-30SM2 and Su-57 production continues, but reliable rates cannot be determined. Su-30 figures also mix new builds with upgrades of older Su-30SMs, HUR noted.

What Russia had, and what it lost or saw badly damaged in 2026

By the end of 2025, Russia had about 125 Su-34 and Su-34M bombers, which HUR counts together. It also had 140–145 Su-30 jets of various versions, 135–140 Su-35S, and about 20 Su-57s, HUR estimated. These are only fleet estimates, not a guaranteed number of jets Russia can send on combat missions at the same time, the agency cautioned. Some are under repair or upgrade, and HUR is not disclosing the current fleet size.

HUR also named specific 2026 cases of Russian aircraft destroyed or critically damaged. A Tu-22M3 crashed in Irkutsk Oblast on 15 June. Strikes on Engels airbase on 17 July and 28 August hit two Tu-95MS. The first suffered critical damage to its tail section, and HUR treats the second as a probable irrecoverable loss.

The list also includes a Su-35 that Ukraine’s military says it shot down on 8 July, a claim backed by published materials showing debris. It adds a Su-57 crash in Moscow Oblast on 23 July and a collision of two Su-35S over Kursk Oblast on 7 September. Full official details on those two incidents are still missing, HUR noted. Strikes on several Su-57s and a Su-34 at Shagol airbase on 25 April, and on a Su-24 in Crimea on 7 September, were also reported, but the state of those jets is unknown, so counting them as destroyed would be premature, HUR said. The list, as published, leaves out the Su-34s at Borisoglebsk and the Tu-95MS that Russia’s defense ministry said crashed on takeoff in Amur Oblast in late September.

French and US maritime patrol planes are watching the western Black Sea, where drones keep hitting merchant ships, Romanian outlet Curs de Guvernare reported on 19 October, citing flight-tracking data. Romania blames Russia for the attacks, while Bulgaria says it cannot prove who launched them.

Ukraine’s three small Danube ports have kept its grain exports from collapsing further, and Russia has pounded those ports since the summer. The ships serving them are now being hit in the economic zones of two NATO members. Many were anchored near or heading to the Sulina Canal, which links the Danube to the sea. That puts the allied patrols over these waters in the middle of the fight over Ukraine’s grain trade.

Two patrol planes over the western Black Sea

A French Navy Atlantique 2 maritime patrol plane arrived in Constanța, Romania’s main Black Sea port, on the evening of 18 October, Curs de Guvernare said. On 24 October, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said in the Bulgarian port of Varna that a French patrol plane had been operating in the area under NATO for two weeks and had contributed to rescue operations.

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Two tankers burn off Romania’s Sulina as Bulgaria says it lacks proof Russia is behind the Black Sea ship attacks

Meanwhile, a US Navy P-8A Poseidon flew into Varna from Sicily on 18 October, AFP reported, citing flight-tracking data. Two days later, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev said it had begun reconnaissance patrols after Sofia asked allies for help, and that some allies had responded quickly. Bulgarian Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov called the deployment a joint decision of Bulgaria and NATO. He said the plane cannot strike targets and passes its data to NATO, Anadolu Agency reported.

NATO promises more

On 20 October, NATO’s North Atlantic Council met at Romania’s request. Afterward, the alliance said it would send more maritime patrol aircraft, radar systems, and drones to the Black Sea. NATO military spokesman Col. Martin O’Donnell added that allies have sent or will send intelligence personnel and explosives-forensics teams. NATO itself has not attributed the attacks to any country.

Romania names Russia, Bulgaria hedges

Romania has been blunter. On 15 October, after four merchant ships were hit within a day, acting Foreign Minister Oana Țoiu wrote on X that “Russia bears full responsibility for these developments.” On 17 October, Romanian F-16s shot down two jet-powered Russian Geran drones near Sulina, Romania’s Defense Ministry said.

On 23 October, a drone sank the cargo ship Khoryv off Constanța, killing a Ukrainian sailor, and President Nicușor Dan blamed Russia too. “It is part of Russia’s escalation process in its war in Ukraine,” Dan said.

Bulgaria is more cautious. Radev told parliament on 14 October that the attacks worked in Russia’s favor but that Sofia could not prove it. Since taking office in May, he has sought a thaw in ties with Moscow.

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kenya are seeking the return of citizens drawn into Russia’s war, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) said on 25 October. According to relatives and officials the agency cites, many of the men had gone to Russia for work, only to be tricked or forced into its army.

Russia fills its ranks partly with foreigners. In April, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) said the Russian Defense Ministry plans to enlist at least 18,500 of them in 2026. Foreign recruits let the Kremlin put off hard choices about another mobilization at home, the Atlantic Council argued in May. Home governments have pushed back before, among them Ghana in August. The new statements show the limit of that pushback. Once a man is serving in Russia’s army, his government has to ask Russia to let him go.

Kyrgyz minister: contracts are forced in enlistment offices and jails

Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev addressed the problem at a parliamentary committee on 13 October, answering lawmakers’ questions. He said Kyrgyz citizens in Russia are forced to sign contracts at military enlistment offices or in pretrial detention centers. If warned in time, diplomats try to stop the men from reaching the front.

Kazakhstan is compiling a list for Moscow

Kazakhstan is negotiating with Russia over citizens in the combat zone. Its Foreign Ministry said on 7 October that it was checking each hotline request. Once the checks are complete, the ministry said, it will send the compiled list to the Russian side.

SZRU separately cited unnamed relatives of one Kazakh worker. After he complained about working conditions, they said, he and other men were taken to an enlistment office and forced to sign contracts.

Kenya wants five men held by Ukraine treated as possible trafficking victims

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who also handles foreign affairs, gave lawmakers a count on 8 October. “The Ministry has records of 354 Kenyan nationals involved in the Russian-Ukraine crisis,” he told them. Families who petitioned Parliament dispute that number and put their own count at 841, Kenya’s The Star reported.

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Kenya says Russia agreed to stop recruiting its citizens – families of the missing are still waiting

Ukraine holds five Kenyans captured while fighting for Russia, and Nairobi has already appealed to Kyiv over them. The government told Parliament it wants them treated as people who may have been trafficked abroad.

For Kenyans still serving in Russia’s army, the way out runs through Russian officers. Moscow informed Nairobi that unit commanders will consider requests to end military contracts case by case, the same government response said.

Ukraine, the US, the EU, and NATO plan to meet in Brussels this week to discuss security for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Ukrainian TV. The meeting would follow last week’s talks in Oslo and a US envoy’s visit to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Guarantees are what would oblige Ukraine’s allies to act if Russia attacks again. The Paris Declaration laid plans for that commitment in January. Kyiv had a briefing from the Americans, and now the partners want a broad discussion of security and guarantees, Zelenskyy said. Brussels comes ahead of three-way talks with Russia, which the Kremlin says Putin is ready in principle to resume in mid-November.

Zelenskyy: meeting planned for Tuesday or Wednesday

The meeting is planned for Tuesday or Wednesday, 27 or 28 October, Zelenskyy said in the interview, aired on 25 October. The EU would take part at the presidential level and NATO at the level of its secretary general. He did not know whether anyone else would join. He also said Ukraine’s neutrality and limits on its army are not up for discussion.

After Oslo, Witkoff briefed Putin in St. Petersburg

Earlier, on 20 October, Zelenskyy met US special envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo, with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre present. According to Zelenskyy, a wider round there included national security advisers from Germany, the UK, France, and Italy, the chief of staff of the European Commission president, and NATO representatives.

A day later, Witkoff met Putin in St. Petersburg and said he had brought papers setting out possible paths to a settlement. He told Putin the Oslo talks had been productive. However, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov claimed the new ideas from the Europeans and Kyiv that Witkoff relayed held little of use for a settlement.