Russian reinforcements are surging into Donetsk Oblast, staging for what many observes anticipate will be a major mechanized assault on the fortress city of Pokrovsk.

But Ukrainian forces aren’t just sitting around waiting for the attack. They’re positioning their own reinforcements around Pokrovsk. And they’re hitting the newly arriving Russian regiments at their assembly points in Donetsk City—potentially with a previously unknown cruise missile type.

That Ukraine can still surprise observers with a new missile type isn’t actually all that surprising. Forty-three months into Russia’s wider war, Ukraine has become a world-leader in deep-strike technology. By necessity.

On Monday, the Ukrainians targeted the defunct Topaz metallurgy plant on the eastern edge of Donetsk City, 50 km southeast of Pokrovsk. The plant is well-known as a staging base for Russian forces moving toward the Donetsk front line.

A barrage of aerial munitions pummeled Topaz. Photos and videos from the plant confirmed no fewer than three different types of munitions. Possibly more.

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Among other weapons, it seems the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces or special services struck Topaz with propeller-driven An-196 and, potentially, Morok attack drones. Meanwhile, the air force launched locally made Bars or Peklo cruise missiles as well as British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

The missiles and drones zoomed in one after another, in quick succession. Imagery from the aftermath of the attack pointed to heavy damage. Other imagery may have revealed fragments of a new Ukrainian missile.

The potentially 3-m missile seems to have a simple fiberglass fuselage and wing and a dorsal pylon for what appears to be a K-450 miniature jet engine made by Taiwanese company KingTech.

The wreckage doesn’t match the Peklo’s sleeker profile. Nor does it match the admittedly few things we might know about the Bars. That first imagery of what may be a crashed Bars seems to point to a different engine type—a SW400 from Chinese firm Swiwin.

Is there a third Ukrainian cruise missile type in the class of the Peklo and Bars? Or did the designers of the Bars switch to a Taiwanese engine? We don’t know.

But we shouldn’t be shocked if the Topaz attack involved a new missile type.

Mass production

Ukrainian firms build long-range attack drones at a rate of at thousands per month—and the Ukrainian military and special services launch them at Russian air bases, factories and oil refineries as far as 1,000 km from the front line, on a roughly weekly basis.

Back in December, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced Ukraine would acquire 30,000 one-way attack drones in 2025. It’s evident actual deliveries will exceed that goal. Fire Point, the firm that builds the Flamingo, claimed it’s already churning out 100 FP-1 attack drones every day.

To add range and firepower to its escalating deep-strike campaign, Ukraine is also developing cruise missiles including the Peklo, the Bars, and the Flamingo. Hundreds of millions of dollars in financing from the United Kingdom and Germany are helping Ukraine ramp up production of these new missiles.

The Peklo and Bars may both range around 800 km, likely with small-ish warheads—possibly lighter than 100 kg. The Flamingo is in a whole different class. It reportedly ranges 3,000 km with a 1,100-kg warhead. All three types are jet-propelled—and thus fast—and probably navigate using a combination of satellites and internal inertial systems.

The Flamingo is a ground-launched weapon; the Peklo and Bars may be compatible with the Ukrainian air force’s upgraded Sukhoi Su-24 bombers, which also launch the Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles Ukraine has received from the United Kingdom, France, and Italy.

It’s unclear whether that fourth Ukrainian cruise missile type—if indeed that’s what we witness in the Topaz raid—launches from the ground or from the air.

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On 8 September, Ukrainian forces launched a powerful combined missile and drone strike, targeting Russian military command structures in Donetsk — a regional capital in eastern Ukraine, occupied by Russia since 2014. OSINT analysts and local sources confirmed the destruction of key command centers belonging to the Russian 41st Army and 20th Motor Rifle Division.

Ukrainian missiles strike Russian command HQs in occupied Donetsk

Ukrainian defense news site Militarnyi reported that Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck multiple command posts of the Russian occupying army in Donetsk Oblast in a coordinated night assault. OSINT analysts CyberBoroshno and Dnipro Osint confirmed that Ukrainian cruise missiles hit headquarters at both army and divisional level.

One of the identified targets was the command post of Russia’s 41st Army, which had been hidden inside the Institute of Integrated Automation in Donetsk. The analysts did not specify the exact location of the 20th Motor Rifle Division’s headquarters, but confirmed it was also struck during the same attack.

In addition to those two major targets, Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked a third Russian-controlled military site — the Topaz plant. This facility, previously used by Russian forces to house command elements, suffered heavy structural damage.

According to analysts, an army-level headquarters was located inside the Topaz site as well, though its exact affiliation remains unknown.

Local footage shows scale of destruction at Russian-occupied Topaz plant

Footage and photos from local Telegram channels captured large columns of smoke rising over Donetsk and visible Russian air defense activity during the attack. The images, showing shattered buildings at the Topaz factory, confirmed that the site sustained serious damage.

CyberBoroshno reported that Russia has used the Topaz plant to station its equipment and military infrastructure since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Due to this, the factory has repeatedly been a target for Ukrainian precision strikes.

Domestic cruise missiles suspected in attack, Peklo and Bars possibly used

Militarnyi notes that although it remains unclear which exact weapons were used in the strikes, footage released by local residents supports the theory that Ukraine used domestically produced Peklo and Bars cruise missiles. Visual evidence from the scene, including the configuration of the jet engine and wing mount, appears to match the characteristics of the Peklo missile.

Ukrainian missile and missile‑drone production

Constrained with scant supplies of foreign-made missiles, Ukraine is rapidly scaling its domestic long‑range strike capabilities, especially with the Flamingo cruise missile—now in mass production by end of 2025 or early 2026, boasting a claimed 3,000 km range, 1,150 kg warhead, and 6‑ton takeoff weight. Ukraine also produces Bars “cruise missile drones,” and additional systems like Peklo and Palianytsia. The latter two were widely praised by the officials earlier, but have basically been missing from reports on deep strikes for months.

Ukraine’s “working horses” for its deep strikes inside Russia and occupied territories are long-range drones such as Liutyi.

In February, Ukraine’s state weapons development grant program reportedly funded 19 domestic missile manufacturers, backing projects to develop a broad range of systems, including cruise, ballistic, and anti-aircraft missiles tailored to the country’s defense needs.

Starting 1 December, Denmark will begin producing solid rocket fuel for Ukraine’s new cruise missiles, Danmarks Radio reports. 

Plant near F-35 airbase

The Ukrainian company FPRT, a part of Fire Point, will establish a new plant near Skrydstrup Airbase, home to the Royal Danish Air Force’s F-35 fighters. This location will provide quick access to advanced military technologies and integration into national defense.

Solid Fuel Technology

Ukraine’s Flamingo cruise missile uses solid rocket fuel, which ignites instantly, provides stable combustion, and does not require fueling before launch, unlike liquid fuel.

Large-scale project for national defense

The company has already received a Danish CVR number and launched a website with information about the project. FPRT plans to build modern production facilities in Vojens, while qualification and operational testing will take place at specialized sites outside the plant.

“Our activities are aimed at supporting programs that are vital for Denmark’s national defense,” the FPRT website states.

Ukraine is escalating its attacks on Russia’s oil refineries, hitting 10 of them in recent days and throttling the Russian oil industry’s refining by more than a million barrels per day. That’s 14% of output.

But refineries can be repaired. And Russia’s sprawling oil sector has excess capacity that could help it compensate for damage from Ukrainian raids. “Russia has a lot of these inactive refineries, and Russia is able to switch to some of them if needed,” Finnish analyst Joni Askola noted.

To make lasting dent in Russia’s most important industry, Ukraine needs to strike more often with more damaging weapons. At present, most oil raids and other deep strikes are carried out by slow, propeller-driven drones ranging fewer than 1,000 km with warheads weighing just 50 kg or so.

The drones that Ukraine has been using are just not enough because they’re quite easy to shoot down and also their warheads are quite small, as well,” Askola pointed out. It’s crucial for Ukraine to get more and better munitions “with enough range, but with a bit bigger warheads.”

The harder-hitting munitions are coming. Ukrainian companies have developed at least two new cruise missiles—the 6,000-kg Flamingo and the approximately 1,000-kg Long Neptune—that could extend the reach and effect of the oil raids. The Americans are helping, too, with a mysterious new cruise missile called the Extended Range Attack Munition.

The enormous Flamingo, traveling as far as 3,000 km with a 1,000-kg warhead, would hit the hardest and farthest targets. Right now, Ukrainian firm Fire Point is building one Flamingo a day. It aims to ramp up production to seven missiles a day by October.

The Long Neptune, ranging 1,000 km with a 150-kg warhead, is for closer and less durable targets. It’s unclear how many of the missile the Luch Design Bureau can build.

Smallest missile

The American ERAM is the smallest of the bunch. It weighs just 1,100 kg and ranges at least 400 km. But in the short term, it may also be the most numerous. The administration of the former US President. Joe Biden launched the ERAM program in 2024, and the administration of the current US President. Donald Trump recently gave final approval for Ukraine to receive 3,350 of the small missiles. Deliveries should start in the coming weeks.

We don’t know much about the ERAM except that, in contrast to the ground-launched Flamingo and Long Neptune, the American munition is air-launched. The Ukrainian air force’s ex-Soviet Sukhoi and MiG jets, ex-European Lockheed Martin F-16s, and ex-French Dassault Mirage 2000s are all compatible with an array of precision munitions.

It’s possible the ERAM is broadly similar to the Powered Joint Direct Attack Munition developed by US defense giant Boeing. The PJDAM takes a standard satellite-guided bomb and adds pop-out wings and a tiny Kratos-TDI-J85 turbojet engine. At the low cost of just $30,000, a 220-kg PJDAM ranges as far as 500 km. Most of the PJDAM’s weight is explosive fill, making it much more damaging than Ukraine’s current deep-strike drones.

It would make sense for the US to provide Ukraine with an ERAM based on the PJDAM, as Ukraine already possesses freefalling JDAM bombs and gliding JDAMs with pop-out wings. Adding a small engine to the same basic munition shouldn’t significantly change its compatibility. Any Ukrainian jets that can carry JDAMs should also be able to carry ERAMs.

To strike Russian refineries with the same intensity that Russia strikes Ukrainian cities, Ukrainian forces need to launch hundreds of munitions several times a week. They can’t all be Flamingos and Long Neptunes, which might cost hundreds of thousands of dollars apiece. Nor should they all be the cheaper, but lighter, attack drones that are most common today.

Cheap but powerful, the ERAM is the middleweight missile Ukraine needs to intensify attacks now. The wrinkle is that the US Defense Department under Trump has reportedly barred Ukraine from striking Russia with certain American-made long-range munitions, extending similar bans put in place by Biden.

It’s unclear whether that policy would also ban deep strikes with ERAMs.

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This American-made missile is Ukraine’s cheap refinery smasher

Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) conducted a strike against a Russian Project 21631 “Buyan-M” small missile ship in the Sea of Azov on 28 July, according to HUR reports.

The operation involved joint action between HUR’s Active Operations Department and the special forces unit “Ghosts” near temporarily occupied Crimea, HUR reported. The targeted vessel serves as a carrier for Kalibr cruise missiles.

“Ghosts” special forces fighters damaged the ship’s radar station using an aerial drone strike, while Active Operations Department specialists attacked the Kalibr carrier’s hull, according to the intelligence directorate.

The Russian missile ship sustained damage and was forced to leave its combat duty area in the Temryuk Bay, where it had been positioned for potential Kalibr launches, HUR reported.

The intelligence directorate said that Defense Forces also struck the Afipsky and Kuibyshevsky oil refineries and attacked several Russian logistics facilities during the night of 28 August.

Escalating drone and missile strikes on Russia’s oil refineries have disrupted 17% of Russian refining. And it’s about to get worse for Russia’s battered oil industry as new, harder-hitting Ukrainian cruise missiles come on-line in greater numbers.

Ukrainian forces have struck 10 Russian refineries in recent days, reducing output by 1.1 million barrels per day, according to Reuters. Some Russian oblasts are also experiencing gasoline shortages and rising prices.

The oil industry accounts for 20% of Russia’s gross domestic product. If Ukraine can inflict lasting damage on the energy sector in Russia, everyday Russians are sure to notice. A souring national mood could “have an impact—and will maybe bring us a bit closer to an end of the war,” Finnish analyst Joni Askola said.

What’s most ominous for the Russians is that most if not all of the recent strikes have involved Ukrainian drone types, such as the Ukroboronprom An-196, that have small warheads weighing just 50 or 60 kg.

A 50-kg warhead delivered by a propeller-drive attack drone motoring along at just 400 km/hr isn’t likely to inflict lasting damage to a target as expansive as an oil refinery, Askola explained. Moreover, current Ukrainian attack drones rarely fly farther than 1,000 km—meaning many Russian refineries are beyond reach.

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Ukraine’s Fire Point builds 100 attack drones every day, all day—aimed at Russia

That’s changing. The new Flamingo cruise missile, from Ukrainian manufacturer Fire Point, ranges 3,000 km at a top speed faster than 900 km/hr with a massive 1,000-kg warhead. The new Long Neptune cruise missile from Ukraine’s Luch Design Bureau is probably just as fast but somewhat smaller, delivering a 150-kg warhead out to a distance of 1,000 km. Both jet-propelled missiles probably navigate with a combination of satellite and inertial guidance

The Flamingo and Long Neptune are in front-line service in limited numbers. Production is scaling up fast, however. Fire Point hopes to build as many as seven Flamingos a day starting in October, potentially signalling a vast expansion of Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign—and a lot more damage to Russian refineries.

“Flamingo has so much range and such a big warhead that that’s one of the important ones that could really make a difference,” Askola said. “But there is also the ground-to-ground version of the Neptune missile that is kind of ready now.” Ukrainian firms are also developing at least two new types of ballistic missile that could add to the destruction.

“If Ukraine can combine drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles on the same place when they’re striking, then it will be hard for Russia to shoot them down or to protect the places,” Askola said. “Hopefully Ukraine can develop as many systems as possible and then scale up on the best ones and hopefully get some results.”

Squeezing the oil economy

Kyiv’s goal should be to permanently throttle Russian refining, with knock-on effects on state revenues—and on gasoline prices. The Kremlin sustains high levels of military recruitment—up to 30,000 fresh troops a month—with generous enlistment bonuses as high as 400,000 rubles ($4,500). That’s as much as many Russians earn in four months.

“Until now, a big part of the population has benefited from the war because if someone from your family goes to fight for the war, you earn way more money,” Askola noted. But the bonuses are a drain on government finances, which are also under strain from Ukraine’s refinery raids. Some oblasts are already cutting back.

The combined effect of shrinking bonuses and rising gas prices could turn more Russians against the war. “Again, it’s something that’s not going to change anything in the short run,” Askola said. Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin “is not going to collapse tomorrow because people suddenly don’t like the war. But in the long run, it will still have an impact.”

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