President Trump hates the moniker TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). But regarding Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine, Trump has repeatedly earned this sobriquet.

Despite repeated warnings that he would impose large secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian energy, Trump has caved to China and instead imposed substantial sanctions on India. This jeopardizes a generation of rapprochement with India and drives it closer to Moscow and Beijing.

When Trump, after six months of finding excuses for Putin and virtually offering him victory, announced his dissatisfaction with Putin’s refusal to commit to peace, many commentators argued he had finally seen the light. Now, they claimed, he would impose crushing sanctions on Russia and its Asian supporters—China and India.

This expression of irritation with Putin’s stalling was allegedly a turning point. Alas, it was not to be.

Trump’s unilateral concessions

On 7 August, Trump and the Russian government announced that instead of draconian sanctions being imposed on Russia, Trump and Vladimir Putin would hold a summit next week. Trump would probably meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy afterward.

But Moscow refused to commit to meeting Zelenskyy, although it might meet with other Ukrainians—again implying the illegality of Zelenskyy’s tenure. Trump duly conceded that Putin did not have to meet Zelenskyy, just hours after a White House aide stated that Putin indeed had to meet with Zelenskyy.

Russia rubbed salt in this wound by claiming the idea for a summit was Trump’s, emphasizing that he, not Putin, was the supplicant. Russian media, now exulting that Washington will finally accept Moscow as an equal by meeting with it, suggest this summit will not even discuss Ukraine but other bilateral issues.

Whether such claims have validity cannot be known. But they indicate Putin’s belief, shared by the Russian elite, that even if the West had the fortitude to impose greater sanctions or furnish Ukraine with more assistance, it would not matter—Russia is going to win.

Russian elite confidence

As Mikhail Zygar has written, the Russian elite is not scared and treats Trump’s earlier threats with disdain. This episode reveals that for all his bravado, Trump has imposed no sanctions on China or Russia but rather attacked America’s allies and partners in an act of extreme strategic incompetence.

Trump has already made two unjustified and unreciprocated concessions to Putin: asking to hold a summit with him and agreeing to exclude both Ukraine and Europe. When asked about this summit, a European official stated he was distraught:

“For all the bluster, Trump has not put a single iota of pressure on Putin—yet. Zero, zip.”

Cosmetic Russian concessions expected

Beyond these unilateral gestures to Putin, speculation suggests Russia will present nothing but cosmetic concessions—for example, suspending aerial and missile attacks on civilian targets. This costs Russia very little but impedes Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy and logistics targets. This approach was reportedly what Belarusian President Lukashenka communicated to Washington.

Putin will not change his government to suit Russia’s taste, nor will he give ground regarding the five Ukrainian provinces Russia has seized since 2014: Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

Instead, this “agreement” will likely pave the way toward Russia’s annexation of those provinces, as Putin and the Russian government have long embarked upon their Russification. There is little to expect here unless Trump magically departs from his fear of Putin and his steadfast refusal to understand what this war is about and how it connects to both international security in general and European security in particular.

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Putin’s broken promises

We already know in advance of this summit—even if Trump does not—that any agreement with Putin will not be worth the paper it’s written on. In invading Ukraine in both 2014 and 2022, Putin broke eight international treaties guaranteeing Ukraine’s borders and sovereignty.

He has also broken or walked out of virtually every arms control treaty except the ABM treaty and is obviously not interested in talks on a new one. Even assuming Russia negotiated such a treaty, it is unlikely to adhere to it. Apart from the eight treaties he broke, Putin also refused to abide by the terms of the Minsk agreements following Russia’s 2014 invasion.

Echoes of Munich 1938

This summit, taking place over the heads of the most directly interested parties, has already triggered considerable anxiety—like the Munich summit of 1938.

That anxiety, based on the first six months of Trump’s second term and his summits with Putin during his first term, is all too justified.

Stephen Blank

Dr. Stephen J. Blank, a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, is an expert on Russian foreign policy, Eurasian security, and international relations.

Editor’s note. The opinions expressed in our Opinion section belong to their authors. Euromaidan Press’ editorial team may or may not share them.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on the evening of 13 August that Ukrainian forces will not voluntarily withdraw from territories in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts currently under their control, speaking to journalists three days before a scheduled Alaska meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.

“We will not leave Donbas – we cannot do this. Everyone forgets the first part – our territories are illegally occupied. For the Russians, Donbas is a bridgehead for a future new offensive. If we leave Donbas of our own free will or under pressure – we will open a third war,” Zelenskyy said, according to Radio Liberty.

The Ukrainian leader challenged potential American positioning on territorial concessions. “Of course, I would like to see America’s position given how it all started – our territory was occupied, Ukrainians are being killed, and after that they tell me: ‘Listen, do you want to stop being killed? You need to leave.’ And what security guarantees? Leave Donetsk oblast?” Zelenskyy said.

Zelenskyy said earlier that Kyiv would not recognize any Ukraine-related decisions made at the US-Russia Alaska summit. The Ukrainian president characterized the Trump-Putin meeting as potentially significant only for bilateral US-Russia relations, calling the very fact of the meeting Putin’s “personal victory.”

“It is impossible to talk about Ukraine without Ukraine, and no one will accept this. Therefore, the conversation may be important for their bilateral track, but they cannot decide anything about Ukraine without us. I hope that the US president understands and takes this into account,” Zelenskyy said at the “Youth Here” forum.

In domestic policy developments, Zelenskyy announced he has instructed the government and army to work on lifting travel restrictions for men under 22 years old. “This is a positive, correct story that will help many Ukrainians maintain ties with Ukraine and pursue education in Ukraine,” the president said.

Since Russia’s invasion, Ukraine has maintained martial law and general mobilization. Men aged 18 to 65 cannot leave the country’s territory. Men aged 25 to 60 are subject to mobilization, while men aged 18 to 24 can be called for basic military service, which during martial law lasts three months.

Europe leads military aid for Ukraine, surpassing the US. According to research by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy’s Ukraine Support Tracker, European countries have become the main donors of support to Ukraine, allocating over 35 billion euros for weapons procurement.

The Ukraine Support Tracker project monitors military, financial, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine based on open data. It covers 40 countries, including the G7 members, as well as Australia, South Korea, Türkiye, Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, China, Taiwan, and India. 

Europe spent more on military aid than the US

From the start of the full-scale war until June 2025, Europe allocated at least 35.1 billion euros for Ukraine’s armaments — 4.4 billion euros more than the US. Importantly, a significant portion of weapons are purchased directly through the defense industry rather than taken from existing stockpiles.

The study highlights that Germany provided the largest bilateral aid package of five billion euros. Norway, Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK, and Denmark also provided significant aid packages.

The US supports, but Kyiv must finance purchases Itself

In May 2025, Trump’s administration approved large arms exports to Ukraine, but the country must finance these purchases independently.

Ukraine’s financing through international mechanisms

A significant part of Ukraine’s financial support is currently provided through the ERA loan mechanism, created by the G7 and the European Commission. A total of 45 billion euros is planned to be provided, partly financed by frozen Russian assets.

Experts warn that whether donors can maintain this level of assistance in the long term remains uncertain.