On 12 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated a new phase of government discussions on the State Rearmament Program for 2027–2036, with the agenda focused on advancing air defense, space systems, drone capabilities, and robotic technologies, according to a 13 June report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The overhaul is part of Russia’s preparation for a prolonged war with Ukraine and potential future conflict with NATO, the think tank says.

During the meeting, Putin claimed that Russia’s air defense systems had ostensibly intercepted over 80,000 aerial targets since February 2022. Of these, 7,500 were described as operational-tactical and cruise missiles, which Putin said were “almost all” Western-made. He argued that Russia’s war in Ukraine demonstrated the need for a “universal air defense system” that can counter all types of projectiles.

Focus on AI, space capabilities, real-time command systems, naval rebuilding

Putin also emphasized the necessity for advanced digital technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) to be deeply embedded in Russian military systems. He outlined goals to develop a fleet of new, unspecified spacecraft aimed at improving reconnaissance and enabling real-time command and control capabilities. The Kremlin is also investing in the modernization of the Russian Navy and seeking to rebuild the Black Sea Fleet, which has suffered heavy losses due to Ukrainian attacks.

“Putin’s statements regarding the need for enhanced Russian air defense systems are likely in part a response to Ukraine’s ‘Operation Spider Web,’ in which Ukrainian forces demonstrated an ability to achieve operational surprise and launch drones against airbases in Russia’s deep rear, highlighting the inability of air defenses in these areas to repel short-range Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drone strikes,” ISW wrote.

Oil revenues may factor into strategy

Despite its ambitions, Russia’s ability to finance the vast rearmament remains unclear, ISW says. According to the think tank, the country’s defense industrial base (DIB) had already struggled with fulfilling both domestic and foreign military contracts before Western sanctions were imposed in 2022 in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

 ISW suggests that rising oil prices—partly triggered by Israeli strikes against Iran—could help Russia finance some of its military goals if those prices remain elevated over the medium- to long-term.

Israel’s attack on Iran may have revived Moscow’s oil revenues for war

The think tank concludes that the Kremlin is likely using battlefield lessons from its war in Ukraine to “inform adaptations of Russia’s military and preparing Russia’s DIB for a protracted war against Ukraine and a potential confrontation with NATO.”

The war in Ukraine is bringing revolutionary changes to modern military strategy. After Ukrainian soldiers destroyed Russia’s Black Sea Fleet flagship, the Moskva cruiser, it became clear: the era of large warships is over, UkrInform reports. 

The Moskva proved that a large warship in the Black Sea is an easy target, says Mykola Shcherbakov, commander of a State Border Guard Sea Guard vessel.

“That’s why we need to be small, fast, and maneuverable. I think swarm tactics are what the future holds for us,” he believes.

Shcherbakov is convinced that Ukraine’s navy’s future lies in high automation, mobility, and modular platforms that can be reconfigured for various missions.

“A fleet is always very expensive. But small platforms with modular weaponry, missiles, air defense — that’s the path to success. And support from drones is essential,” he emphasizes.

He adds that the Sea Guard can also assign some tasks to unmanned systems—for example, during reconnaissance missions or in high-risk zones.

“Not all of our tasks require people on board. When it’s about documenting violations or communicating with fishermen, drones can’t replace a human. But when it comes to scouting or assessing the situation, maritime drones would be very appropriate,” Shcherbakov explains.

He says Ukraine has already shown the world its capabilities in unmanned maritime technology.

“There are already sea-based FPV drone variants, vessels equipped with air defense systems — even something resembling mini aircraft carriers that can carry reconnaissance or strike systems,” Shcherbakov notes.

Ukraine is currently at the forefront of using unmanned systems at sea, the Ukrainian commander emphasizes.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a new naval strategy aimed at fully restoring Russia's position as a leading global maritime power, Kremlin aide Nikolai Patrushev said in an interview with the Russian state-controlled Argumenty i Fakty newspaper, published on June 9.

Patrushev, a former KGB officer, told the Russian newspaper that the new document, titled The Strategy for the Development of the Russian Navy up to 2050, was approved in late May.

"Russia's position as one of the world's greatest maritime powers is gradually recovering," Patrushev said. He added that such work requires a long-term vision of future maritime challenges and threats.

Patrushev provided no further details on the new naval strategy.

Russia currently operates the world's third most powerful navy, according to most public rankings, behind China and the United States. However, the fleet has suffered a string of losses during the war against Ukraine, particularly in the Black Sea.

Since September 2022, Ukraine has used naval kamikaze drones to target the Russian Black Sea Fleet, destroying several vessels. The latest strike sank a Mangust-class patrol boat off the coast of occupied Crimea using a domestically produced Magura drone.

Ukraine's campaign has drawn on the Jeune École naval doctrine, leveraging small, low-cost drones against larger warships. After losing its conventional surface fleet early in the war, Ukraine turned to developing its own naval drones.

The approach has proven effective.

In April 2022, Ukraine sank the Moskva, the fleet's flagship, with Neptune missiles. It has since struck key naval bases and reportedly disabled or destroyed around a third of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. The General Staff said in June that 29 Russian vessels had been taken out of action.

In response, Russia began pulling back ships from occupied Crimea to the port of Novorossiysk in late 2024 to shield them from further attacks. The redeployment limited Moscow's ability to blockade Ukrainian grain exports, though Russian naval capabilities in other regions remain largely intact.

As Ukraine, Russia agree to ceasefire at sea, Moscow’s battered Black Sea Fleet is set to get a reprieve

The White House on March 25 announced that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to “eliminate the use of force” in the Black Sea, returning the spotlight to a theater of battle that has been relatively quiet for more than a year. Throughout 2022 and 2023, Ukrainian strikes against Russian ships,

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek