Europe can’t keep up with Russia in producing anti-missiles for Ukraine. Therefore, the time has come to shift from defense to counterattacks, Defense Express reports.

Europe’s defense lags behind

Russia’s military industry is currently capable of producing up to 1,020 ballistic missiles annually, including Iskander and Kinzhal types. European countries only have the capacity to intercept around 300 such missiles per year. These figures come from researcher Fabian Hoffmann, cited by the German outlet Hartpunkt. This imbalance means European industry is being outpaced by Russia, which continues to ramp up missile production. According to Ukraine’s military intelligence, Russia increased its Iskander production by 15–40% in the first half of 2025 alone. Europe is failing to match that surge with equivalent growth in its missile interception capabilities.

From defense to counterstrikes

As Defense Express explains, the traditional “anti-access/area denial” approach, which envisions saturating Ukraine with air defense systems, doesn’t work when the adversary has a numerical advantage. This method focuses on preventing missiles from entering Ukrainian airspace. In contrast, a more “offensive” strategy targets the factories, workshops, and logistics hubs where those missiles are made. It’s about eliminating the source of the threat, not just shielding against its consequences. And that, analysts argue, is exactly what Ukraine needs now. This shift in the support paradigm Europe must adopt to help Ukraine repel Russian strikes is timely and necessary.

“But ultimately it depends on what strike capabilities European partners are actually willing to supply, a particularly pressing issue amid speculation about Germany’s secret strike option, if not Taurus,” the experts write.

What Europe might provide

On 24 July, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Kyiv forces would receive secret weapons to “influence” Russia’s territory. Meanwhile, the deliveries of Taurus long-range missiles were ruled out. Wadephul emphasized that European partners were working intensively on the weapons delivery for Ukraine. The issue was not about finances but about the defense industry’s production capacity. In July, Germany announced it would deliver five Patriot systems to Ukraine, which are the only systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed the agreement with his US counterpart Pete Hegseth. Berlin is also sending over 200,000 shells for its Gepard anti-drone systems and financing the production of long-range Ukrainian drones for deep strikes inside Russia.

Ukraine receives Patriot air defense systems, and it’s just the beginning. The US and its allies have provided the systems under a new scheme in which European nations foot the bill for American weapons supplied to Kyiv, The Washington Post reports. 

Two more is on the way

Germany has already delivered three Patriots. One more is under discussion with the US, while Berlin has pledged to help provide a total of five.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has confirmed this during a meeting of Ukraine’s allies, without going into further detail.

Ukraine aims for ten systems

Kyiv is aiming to receive ten Patriots under the new arrangement. Some batteries could even come from outside NATO. For instance, Switzerland has agreed to redirect five systems it had previously ordered to Ukraine, and will receive its own later.

Under the new scheme, Ukraine will also receive advanced radars, electronic warfare systems, drone interceptors, and artillery platforms, according to two informed officials.

Long-range missiles? Germany says no, the US still weighing options

Meanwhile, the issue of long-range weapons remains unresolved. Germany has already ruled out supplying Taurus cruise missiles. The US has not provided a clear signal. NATO officials are not ready to confirm that such transfers will not happen in the future, despite US President Donald Trump’s refusal.