The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 2 June that newly published Ukrainian and Russian memorandums highlight how far apart both sides remain after their latest negotiations the same day — with Russia repeating maximalist demands and Ukraine focusing on phased peace efforts and further dialogue.

Ukraine pushes for ceasefire, humanitarian steps, and lasting security

Ukraine’s memorandum, published by Suspilne on 1 June, outlines four core proposals:

• an unconditional ceasefire on land, sea, and in the air;
• confidence-building measures like returning all Ukrainian civilians and children and exchanging prisoners of war;
• a long-term peace agreement with firm security guarantees and full territorial integrity;
• and continued negotiations after the 2 June Istanbul meeting, including preparation for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.

Ukraine also insists on the right to join any security alliance, including NATO.

Nothing new: Russia repeats lang-grab recognition, regime-change, disarmament demands

Russia’s memorandum, published by TASS on 2 June, is split into three sections. The first demands Ukrainian recognition of Russia’s control over all of Ukraine’s Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson oblasts, and Crimea — and complete withdrawal from these territories. It also calls for permanent Ukrainian neutrality, cancellation of all military alliances, a total ban on foreign military presence, and strict protections for Russian-speaking populations.

The second section outlines two ceasefire options. The first requires Ukraine to withdraw beyond current front lines in all four oblasts. The second demands Kyiv demobilize, end martial law, cancel all foreign military support and intelligence sharing, and organize presidential elections within 100 days of martial law ending.

The third section proposes a short ceasefire to recover bodies, followed by a 30-day timeline for Ukrainian withdrawal and eventual signing of a peace deal — only after Ukraine forms a new government.

ISW: Russia still aims for total Ukrainian capitulation

ISW notes that these demands are consistent with the Kremlin’s longstanding goals: territorial gains, military and political control over Ukraine, and the installation of a pro-Russian government. As of 2 June 2025, Russia occupies 79.8% of the four contested oblasts, while Ukraine retains around 21,600 square kilometers, including major cities like Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka, and Sloviansk. ISW adds that Russian forces have not shown the ability to capture cities of that scale since early 2022.

“Russian forces have not demonstrated the capacity to seize cities of this size since early 2022, and the Russian military is almost certainly incapable of conducting a successful offensive operation to seize one of these cities after three years of war and degradation,” the think tank wrote.

Child deportation claims briefly raised, dismissed by Russia

ISW also summarizes that Ukraine presented Russia with a list of hundreds of abducted children, which Russia dismissed. Kremlin negotiator Medinsky said the list included 331 names and denied mass abductions. Ukraine has verified the deportation of at least 19,456 children, with only 1,345 returned. Russia’s children’s commissioner previously claimed 700,000 Ukrainian children had been “accepted” by Russia.

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On 25 May, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin is conducting a coordinated campaign of military escalation and psychological warfare aimed at weakening Ukraine and eroding Western support.

ISW wrote that Putin “is leveraging long-range strikes against Ukrainian cities, aggressive rhetorical campaigns, and excessive pessimism in the West about the battlefield situation in Ukraine in a multi-pronged effort to degrade Ukrainian morale and convince the West that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable and that supporting Ukraine is futile.”

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According to ISW, Russia has intensified long-range missile and drone attacks over the last eight months, launching seven of the largest combined strikes of the war since January 2025.

Weaponizing pessimism and pressure

ISW emphasized that the Kremlin is simultaneously saturating the information space with calls for Ukraine to accept concessions on sovereignty and territorial integrity. These demands, however, are not new. ISW notes they are in line with longstanding Russian war aims, and this shows that “Russia’s demands have not changed over the last three years of war.”

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Despite the messaging, ISW points out that the battlefield situation has changed significantly since early 2022. Russia has suffered three years of manpower and equipment losses, weakening its military’s capacity to achieve large-scale offensive success.

On the ground, Russian progress stalls

ISW reports that Russian advances have slowed, with forces relying increasingly on poorly trained and poorly equipped infantry to sustain pressure. Nevertheless, Putin remains committed to masking battlefield realities with a media and missile campaign intended to disrupt international unity and end Western military assistance.

“Putin remains deeply committed to distracting from the realities of the battlefield situation, however, as bringing about the cessation of Western military assistance to Ukraine is Russia’s only real hope of winning this war,” ISW concludes.

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