European Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius says Russia lacks the military strength often attributed to it and will not achieve victory in Ukraine, according to an interview with LRT.lt.

This comes after Russia’s massive air attack on Ukraine over the weekend, during which over 600 drones and dozens of missiles were launched from Friday to Sunday, amid ongoing US efforts at peace negotiations. These attacks were confirmed as one of the heaviest attacks of the war to date.

“Russia is not as powerful as it is sometimes thought to be, and I do not see any evidence of Russia’s great power,” Kubilius said. He emphasized that Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable resilience over three years of war.

The Commissioner outlined Europe’s growing defense spending plans. The European Union envisions investing €800 billion in defense capabilities. However, member states will need to borrow most of this money themselves.

Kubilius acknowledged the challenge of convincing countries already facing high debt levels. “This is a question of politicians and leaders taking responsibility. They have to find ways of convincing their electorate that there is a real need to invest in defence,” he said.

The Commissioner also said that European forces must be capable of holding defensive positions for approximately ten days before NATO reinforcements arrive, he explained.

He said that the American presence in European defence is likely to become smaller, as the Americans concentrate more on the Indo-Pacific.

 “450 million Europeans should not be begging 340 million Americans to protect Europe from 140 million Russians who cannot take on 38 million Ukrainians,” he said.

Kubilius revealed that only 20% of European military acquisitions come from European industry, while over 65% originate from the United States.

“We have to avoid a chaotic divorce” with America while preparing for reduced US involvement, he said.

Regarding China, Kubilius described it as an authoritarian state but distinguished it from Russia. “There is a big difference between those authoritarian states that because of their size and geopolitical weight do not try to become aggressive,” he explained.

The Commissioner revealed details about Western support for Ukraine. America has provided €60 billion in military aid over three years, while the European Union contributed about €50 billion. Including Britain and Norway, European support also reaches approximately €60 billion.

He characterized this spending level as modest relative to economic output. Annual support totals about €20 billion from each side, representing less than 0.1% of GDP for both America and Europe.

The Commissioner outlined potential scenarios if American support withdraws. Europe maintains clear positions on the war and will never recognize occupied territories, he stated.

Kubilius said tha the fundamental commitment to supporting Ukraine remains essential, he argued, despite Russian efforts to create confusion through hybrid warfare tactics.

He sees opportunities for increased European support. “I am not convinced that 0.1% of GDP is the limit,” Kubilius said, suggesting room for higher contribution levels from member states.

The Commissioner concluded that European leadership must demonstrate clarity amid uncertainty about American policy directions. “It is good that, in the confusion caused by the new American administration, there is an effort in Europe to show much clearer leadership,” he said.